Marginal Revolution https://marginalrevolution.com/ Small Steps Toward A Much Better World Wed, 05 Aug 2026 06:30:47 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/cropped-MR-logo-thumbnail-32x32.png Marginal REVOLUTION https://marginalrevolution.com/ 32 32 42693868 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/dominant-assurance-contract-aka-refund-bonus-explainer.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=dominant-assurance-contract-aka-refund-bonus-explainer Dominant Assurance Contract aka Refund Bonus Explainer https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/966523697/0/marginalrevolution~Dominant-Assurance-Contract-aka-Refund-Bonus-Explainer.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/dominant-assurance-contract-aka-refund-bonus-explainer.html#comments Wed, 05 Aug 2026 11:16:55 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93541 I created the dominant assurance contract aka the refund bonus mechanism in 1998–it’s a mechanism capable of producing some types of public goods privately–in recent years working with Tim Cason and Robertas Zubrickas I’ve put refund bonuses to the test in lab experiments and they work! I’ve written an accessible Refund Bonus Explainer that covers […]

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]]> I created the dominant assurance contract aka the refund bonus mechanism in 1998–it’s a mechanism capable of producing some types of public goods privately–in recent years working with Tim Cason and Robertas Zubrickas I’ve put refund bonuses to the test in lab experiments and they work! I’ve written an accessible Refund Bonus Explainer that covers this body of work. Here’s one bit:

The dike is a public good. Once it stands, it protects everyone nearby, and a neighbor who contributed nothing cannot easily be excluded. That property is what makes it hard to finance.

Paul Samuelson gave this category its modern formulation in 1954, and he drew a pessimistic conclusion from it. Each person does better by understating what the good is worth to him, so it is, in Samuelson’s words, “in the selfish interest of each person to give false signals, to pretend to have less interest in a given collective consumption activity than he really has.” From this he concluded that “no decentralized pricing system can serve to determine optimally these levels of collective consumption.” Public goods, on this view, are what governments are for. Refund bonuses are a challenge to that conclusion.

Read the whole thing and here is my Rent Control Explainer.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/dominant-assurance-contract-aka-refund-bonus-explainer.html/feed 7 93541 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/is-this-why-china-finds-it-so-hard-to-inflate-producer-prices.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=is-this-why-china-finds-it-so-hard-to-inflate-producer-prices Is this why China finds it so hard to inflate producer prices? https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/966463520/0/marginalrevolution~Is-this-why-China-finds-it-so-hard-to-inflate-producer-prices.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/is-this-why-china-finds-it-so-hard-to-inflate-producer-prices.html#comments Wed, 05 Aug 2026 07:20:41 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93533 This paper investigates why China’s recurrent credit expansions have coincided with persistently weak inflation. We argue that this pattern reflects the country’s production-oriented monetary regime. At the aggregate level, faster monetary-financial expansion temporarily raises PPI inflation but depresses it over longer horizons. At the sectoral level, liability growth among listed industrial firms is followed by […]

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This paper investigates why China’s recurrent credit expansions have coincided with persistently weak inflation. We argue that this pattern reflects the country’s production-oriented monetary regime. At the aggregate level, faster monetary-financial expansion temporarily raises PPI inflation but depresses it over longer horizons. At the sectoral level, liability growth among listed industrial firms is followed by weaker producer prices, lower profitability, higher leverage, rising inventories, and reduced capacity utilization. We also find asymmetric supply-chain transmission: downstream liability growth raises upstream PPI inflation, while upstream liability growth does not generate a corresponding downstream price response. These findings indicate that credit expansion in China tends to sustain production and balance sheets rather than stimulate final demand. As a result, monetary policy operates less as a conventional tool for demand management and durable reflation, and more as a mechanism for preserving production capacity and supporting growth.

That is from a new paper by Jeffery (Jinfan) Chang & Wei Xiong.  I have to say I understand the result but not exactly the mechanism.  I am reminded of Milton Friedman’s dictum not to focus too much on the first-order effects of an increase in money supply.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/is-this-why-china-finds-it-so-hard-to-inflate-producer-prices.html/feed 6 93533 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/victor-niederhoffer-rip.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=victor-niederhoffer-rip Victor Niederhoffer, RIP https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/966445367/0/marginalrevolution~Victor-Niederhoffer-RIP.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/victor-niederhoffer-rip.html#comments Wed, 05 Aug 2026 06:04:51 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93543 In addition to his well-known public roles, he worked very hard to help and befriend me when I was younger.  Here are the Google searches for Victor.  Less well known about Victor is that he had one of the world’s best collections of private letters.  He also once gave me a very nice small painting […]

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]]> In addition to his well-known public roles, he worked very hard to help and befriend me when I was younger.  Here are the Google searches for Victor.  Less well known about Victor is that he had one of the world’s best collections of private letters.  He also once gave me a very nice small painting by Jack Savitzky, for which I remain grateful.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/victor-niederhoffer-rip.html/feed 6 93543 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/the-value-of-behavioral-policies.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-value-of-behavioral-policies The Value of Behavioral Policies https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/966425315/0/marginalrevolution~The-Value-of-Behavioral-Policies.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/the-value-of-behavioral-policies.html#comments Wed, 05 Aug 2026 04:51:59 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93534 Behavioral interventions have become central to modern public policy, but their empirical promise remains contested because estimated treatment effects often appear small. We argue that a policy response is economically meaningful only relative to the response generated by alternative policies. We assemble more than 1,200 estimates from over 600 studies comparing “nudges” and traditional price […]

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Behavioral interventions have become central to modern public policy, but their empirical promise remains contested because estimated treatment effects often appear small. We argue that a policy response is economically meaningful only relative to the response generated by alternative policies. We assemble more than 1,200 estimates from over 600 studies comparing “nudges” and traditional price interventions in the markets for cigarettes, alcohol, influenza vaccination, electricity, and residential water. Translating nudge effects into equivalent price changes, we find that behavioral interventions often correspond to enormous fiscal interventions, from an 11% tax on electricity to a 100% subsidy on influenza vaccinations. Nudges are also more cost-effective than price instruments in all markets, but cost-effectiveness does not predict the welfare ranking of policies. Using a behavioral extension of the Marginal Value of Public Funds, we show that nudges have high welfare returns at the margin, while price instruments often generate larger total surplus at scale.

That is from a new NBER working paper by John A. List, Matthias Rodemeier, Sutanuka Roy & Gregory K. Sun.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/the-value-of-behavioral-policies.html/feed 11 93534 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/estimating-the-economic-value-of-zoning-reform.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=estimating-the-economic-value-of-zoning-reform Estimating the Economic Value of Zoning Reform https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/966289094/0/marginalrevolution~Estimating-the-Economic-Value-of-Zoning-Reform.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/estimating-the-economic-value-of-zoning-reform.html#comments Tue, 04 Aug 2026 18:51:23 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93514 We estimate the economic value of zoning reform in São Paulo, which altered maximum permitted construction along transportation corridors. Developers increased filings for multifamily construction in blocks affected by the reform, leading to more housing supply and lower housing prices in neighborhoods that allow more densification. Our equilibrium model of housing markets estimates an aggregate […]

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We estimate the economic value of zoning reform in São Paulo, which altered maximum permitted construction along transportation corridors. Developers increased filings for multifamily construction in blocks affected by the reform, leading to more housing supply and lower housing prices in neighborhoods that allow more densification. Our equilibrium model of housing markets estimates an aggregate 1.6 percent increase in housing stock and a 0.4 percent reduction in prices, resulting in large housing wealth transfers from current to future homeowners. The reform produced welfare gains of 0.65 percent of city GDP, mostly due to developer profits and consumer gains from the newly built environment.

That is from the AEA policy journal, by Santosh Anagol, Fernando Ferreira, and Jonah Rexer.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/estimating-the-economic-value-of-zoning-reform.html/feed 26 93514 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/tuesday-assorted-links-580.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=tuesday-assorted-links-580 Tuesday assorted links https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/966250154/0/marginalrevolution~Tuesday-assorted-links.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/tuesday-assorted-links-580.html#comments Tue, 04 Aug 2026 15:29:06 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93531 1. Selecting innovation funding mechanisms. 2. Helen Andrews on race. 3. Famous radio station goes all-automated. 4. On Stefanie Stantcheva. 5. ChinaTalk submission hiring contest. 6. New Hamilton faculty at University of Florida, 21 of them. 7. Battery in your backyard? (WSJ) 8. How Americans are talking to Claude about politics.

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]]> 1. Selecting innovation funding mechanisms.

2. Helen Andrews on race.

3. Famous radio station goes all-automated.

4. On Stefanie Stantcheva.

5. ChinaTalk submission hiring contest.

6. New Hamilton faculty at University of Florida, 21 of them.

7. Battery in your backyard? (WSJ)

8. How Americans are talking to Claude about politics.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/tuesday-assorted-links-580.html/feed 114 93531 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/the-economics-off-h-1b-immigration.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-economics-off-h-1b-immigration The economics of H-1B immigration https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/966158813/0/marginalrevolution~The-economics-of-HB-immigration.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/the-economics-off-h-1b-immigration.html#comments Tue, 04 Aug 2026 06:23:41 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93530 We study the effects of H-1B immigration on U.S. industries that employ H-1B workers and their trading partners. Using a novel cross-industry design and the 1999–2003 expansion of the H-1B visa cap for identification, we find that H-1B exposure raised incomes for natives and pre-existing immigrants, with gains concentrated in non-STEM occupations. Income gains propagate […]

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We study the effects of H-1B immigration on U.S. industries that employ H-1B workers and their trading partners. Using a novel cross-industry design and the 1999–2003 expansion of the H-1B visa cap for identification, we find that H-1B exposure raised incomes for natives and pre-existing immigrants, with gains concentrated in non-STEM occupations. Income gains propagate forward through supply chains to downstream industries but not backward to upstream industries, consistent with a productivity shock rather than a labor supply shock. We find no direct effect on patenting, suggesting that productivity gains arise from better task execution rather than patentable invention.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Ran Abramitzky, Leah Platt Boustan, Ahmet Gulek & Jens Hainmueller.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/the-economics-off-h-1b-immigration.html/feed 90 93530 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/emergent-ventures-winners-57th-cohort.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=emergent-ventures-winners-57th-cohort Emergent Ventures winners, 57th cohort https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/966149954/0/marginalrevolution~Emergent-Ventures-winners-th-cohort.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/emergent-ventures-winners-57th-cohort.html#comments Tue, 04 Aug 2026 05:16:58 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93437 Oisin O’Gorman, 15, Dublin, misinformation and fakes. Karsen Lee Wahal, Stanford, is AI killing the web?, and measuring media slant. Davy Deng, with Claire Wang (previous winner), whole brain emulation, MIT. Enej Grmek, 16, Ljubljana, privacy. Vladimir Shmelev, Ukraine, Ukrainian children for relief trips to Montenegro. Nik Verma, Chicago, a legal framework for AI agents. […]

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]]> Oisin O’Gorman, 15, Dublin, misinformation and fakes.

Karsen Lee Wahal, Stanford, is AI killing the web?, and measuring media slant.

Davy Deng, with Claire Wang (previous winner), whole brain emulation, MIT.

Enej Grmek, 16, Ljubljana, privacy.

Vladimir Shmelev, Ukraine, Ukrainian children for relief trips to Montenegro.

Nik Verma, Chicago, a legal framework for AI agents.

Emirhan Demir and Çınar Yıldırım, Istanbul area, 19, protection against AI agents.

Midhat Doruk, 14, Ankara, longevity, biology, and skin cosmetics.

Burak Yilmaz, 17, Diyarbarkir, Turkey, browser-native authentication.

Lloyd Strickland, London, to publish the remaining Leibniz papers, including on computation.

Abdul Quyum, 15, Perth, organizing information and data.

Catharine Young, podcast on women in science, science communication tranche, Cambridge/DC.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/emergent-ventures-winners-57th-cohort.html/feed 9 93437 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/how-does-the-market-regard-stablecoins.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=how-does-the-market-regard-stablecoins How does the market regard stablecoins? https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/966067778/0/marginalrevolution~How-does-the-market-regard-stablecoins.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/how-does-the-market-regard-stablecoins.html#comments Mon, 03 Aug 2026 18:32:18 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93532 We study the demand for safety and liquidity in the crypto ecosystem. We do so under a framework in which a representative investor allocates liquidity across stablecoin deposits in lending pools and traditional safe assets (e.g., MMF shares). Our model delivers three main predictions: (i) the stablecoin deposit premium co-moves with the Treasury premium when […]

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We study the demand for safety and liquidity in the crypto ecosystem. We do so under a framework in which a representative investor allocates liquidity across stablecoin deposits in lending pools and traditional safe assets (e.g., MMF shares). Our model delivers three main predictions: (i) the stablecoin deposit premium co-moves with the Treasury premium when investors value the safety and liquidity services of stablecoins; (ii) increases in Treasury supply reduce the stablecoin deposit premium; and (iii) drops in the perceived safety and liquidity of stablecoin deposits (e.g., due to de-pegs or hacker attacks) reduce their premium. Using granular data from hundreds of DeFi pools spanning multiple protocols, tokens, and blockchains, we find evidence supporting these predictions. Investors treat stablecoin deposits as money-like instruments that are borderless and permissionless, yet as fragile as other forms of privately produced safe assets.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Murillo Campello, Angela Gallo, Lira Mota & Tammaro Terracciano.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/how-does-the-market-regard-stablecoins.html/feed 5 93532 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/monday-assorted-links-571.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=monday-assorted-links-571 Monday assorted links https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/966044645/0/marginalrevolution~Monday-assorted-links.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/monday-assorted-links-571.html#comments Mon, 03 Aug 2026 15:43:56 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93529 1. A new simulation argument? 2. PC on aesthetics. 3. An interview with Yiyang Zhuge. 4. The truth and aesthetics of going to church? 5. Some forms of math cope? And a different view. 6. At the demolition derby.

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]]> 1. A new simulation argument?

2. PC on aesthetics.

3. An interview with Yiyang Zhuge.

4. The truth and aesthetics of going to church?

5. Some forms of math cope? And a different view.

6. At the demolition derby.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/monday-assorted-links-571.html/feed 82 93529 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/what-should-i-ask-nick-bostrom.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=what-should-i-ask-nick-bostrom What should I ask Nick Bostrom? https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/966018521/0/marginalrevolution~What-should-I-ask-Nick-Bostrom.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/what-should-i-ask-nick-bostrom.html#comments Mon, 03 Aug 2026 13:20:26 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93535 Yes I will be doing a Conversation with him.  So what should I ask? If you need them, here are various Bostrom links.

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]]> Yes I will be doing a Conversation with him.  So what should I ask?

If you need them, here are various Bostrom links.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/what-should-i-ask-nick-bostrom.html/feed 49 93535 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/on-infinite-ethics.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=on-infinite-ethics On infinite ethics https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/965962430/0/marginalrevolution~On-infinite-ethics.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/on-infinite-ethics.html#comments Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:11:06 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93516 Infinite numbers have long troubled utilitarian ethicists: if the universe is boundless, then there is infinite positive utility and infinite negative utility, and we can’t even define our current state, let alone affect it. Oxford philosopher Toby Ord proposes a solution: use hyperreal numbers, a mathematical construct in which infinite sums behave more like finite ones (for example, […]

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Infinite numbers have long troubled utilitarian ethicists: if the universe is boundless, then there is infinite positive utility and infinite negative utility, and we can’t even define our current state, let alone affect it. Oxford philosopher Toby Ord proposes a solution: use hyperreal numbers, a mathematical construct in which infinite sums behave more like finite ones (for example, the sum of infinitely many twos is twice as big as the sum of infinitely many ones). As with so many philosophical ideas, this solves some existing problems while creating some new ones (pinpointing some hyperreals requires choosing something called an “ultrafilter”, but this choice is underdetermined). Still, Elias Schmied calls this a real philosophical advance, of the sort which comes along only rarely and makes genuine headway into a previously-hopeless-seeming problem. I’m just surprised there’s a way of thinking about infinities under which they behave logically. Why didn’t we start with this one, instead of being told that infinity + infinity = infinity and we should just accept it? Claude tries to answer my questions.

That is from Scott Alexander (many more links at the link, many on AI safety).

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/on-infinite-ethics.html/feed 52 93516 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/romes-age-of-revolution.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=romes-age-of-revolution *Rome’s Age of Revolution* https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/965938058/0/marginalrevolution~Romes-Age-of-Revolution.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/romes-age-of-revolution.html#comments Mon, 03 Aug 2026 04:33:37 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93527 The author is Tim Whitmarsh and the subtitle is Augustus, Empire and the Making of Christianity.  This is the most important book on the history of Christianity I have read in a long time, and it is also an important work in Roman history.  Yet also fun and extremely readable.  Excerpt: The story I have […]

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]]> The author is Tim Whitmarsh and the subtitle is Augustus, Empire and the Making of Christianity.  This is the most important book on the history of Christianity I have read in a long time, and it is also an important work in Roman history.  Yet also fun and extremely readable.  Excerpt:

The story I have told so far has emphasised the fit between Christianity and the Greek world of the early Roman Empire; I have given relatively little space to conflict.  That has been quite deliberate.  One of the commonest misconceptions about the early Roman Empire is that it was a time of ceaseless and inevitable suppression of virtuous Christians by a brutal governmental machine.  This is a myth that has roots in antiquity itself, and has been pumped systematically into western popular culture since the nineteenth centuury.  It is a remarkably durable myth, because it is both emotionally seductive and ideologically powerful.  The idea that virtuous Christians were engaged in endless conflict with the Roman state makes for great narrative.  But the reality is more banal: most Christians were fully integrated into Roman society, and no more or less harassed than anyone else…

My argument has been, rather, that Christianity could not have come into being in anything like the form we know it without the revolutionary impact of Augustus’ political reforms.  It was this seismic change that fundamentally transformed Mediterranean thought…The most dramatic effect of the Augustan swirl was Christianity itself: a breakaway Judaean sect led by brilliant entrepreneurs who understood the opportunities offered by the new political dispensation, and rapidly reshaped their ideas to suit new audiences.

Definitely recommended, and not only to Christians and Romans.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/romes-age-of-revolution.html/feed 49 93527 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/sunday-assorted-links-578.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=sunday-assorted-links-578 Sunday assorted links https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/965812541/0/marginalrevolution~Sunday-assorted-links.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/sunday-assorted-links-578.html#comments Sun, 02 Aug 2026 15:58:08 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93518 1. The inverseminar, someone else presents your paper. 2. The rise of million-dollar companies with just one employee (WSJ). 3. The political party itself is a big driver of polarization. 4. Gita Gopinath is making sense. 5. GPT Pro (not Astra) on what “Astra” means. 6. David Perell art history game. 7. New model of […]

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]]> 1. The inverseminar, someone else presents your paper.

2. The rise of million-dollar companies with just one employee (WSJ).

3. The political party itself is a big driver of polarization.

4. Gita Gopinath is making sense.

5. GPT Pro (not Astra) on what “Astra” means.

6. David Perell art history game.

7. New model of “Racing to Ruin.”

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/sunday-assorted-links-578.html/feed 74 93518 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/on-the-acemoglu-autor-et-al-fertility-result.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=on-the-acemoglu-autor-et-al-fertility-result On the Acemoglu-Autor et.al. fertility result https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/965792381/0/marginalrevolution~On-the-AcemogluAutor-etal-fertility-result.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/on-the-acemoglu-autor-et-al-fertility-result.html#comments Sun, 02 Aug 2026 14:16:16 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93517 Here is criticism from Revana Sharfuddin.  Here is criticism from JFV.

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]]> Here is criticism from Revana Sharfuddin.  Here is criticism from JFV.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/on-the-acemoglu-autor-et-al-fertility-result.html/feed 62 93517