The post Victor Niederhoffer, RIP appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Behavioral interventions have become central to modern public policy, but their empirical promise remains contested because estimated treatment effects often appear small. We argue that a policy response is economically meaningful only relative to the response generated by alternative policies. We assemble more than 1,200 estimates from over 600 studies comparing “nudges” and traditional price interventions in the markets for cigarettes, alcohol, influenza vaccination, electricity, and residential water. Translating nudge effects into equivalent price changes, we find that behavioral interventions often correspond to enormous fiscal interventions, from an 11% tax on electricity to a 100% subsidy on influenza vaccinations. Nudges are also more cost-effective than price instruments in all markets, but cost-effectiveness does not predict the welfare ranking of policies. Using a behavioral extension of the Marginal Value of Public Funds, we show that nudges have high welfare returns at the margin, while price instruments often generate larger total surplus at scale.

That is from a new NBER working paper by John A. List, Matthias Rodemeier, Sutanuka Roy & Gregory K. Sun.

The post The Value of Behavioral Policies appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• Excellent paper. As always, John List’s work makes me think. ... by Kaz Stanczak
• We assemble more than 1,200 estimates from over 600 studies ... by MikeP

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• Estimating the Economic Value of Zoning Reform
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We estimate the economic value of zoning reform in São Paulo, which altered maximum permitted construction along transportation corridors. Developers increased filings for multifamily construction in blocks affected by the reform, leading to more housing supply and lower housing prices in neighborhoods that allow more densification. Our equilibrium model of housing markets estimates an aggregate 1.6 percent increase in housing stock and a 0.4 percent reduction in prices, resulting in large housing wealth transfers from current to future homeowners. The reform produced welfare gains of 0.65 percent of city GDP, mostly due to developer profits and consumer gains from the newly built environment.

That is from the AEA policy journal, by Santosh Anagol, Fernando Ferreira, and Jonah Rexer.

The post Estimating the Economic Value of Zoning Reform appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Naveen_K. “If a substantial ... by mkt42
• In reply to Anti-Gnostic. So does industry buy economists too ... by rsm
• In reply to Sure. Nobody cares about aggregated “welfare ... by Anti-Gnostic
• In reply to Dan S.. Housing isn't really a fungible good, ... by Anti-Gnostic
• In reply to rayward. I'm fine with high density housing in ... by Anti-Gnostic
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• The economics of H-1B immigration
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2. Helen Andrews on race.

3. Famous radio station goes all-automated.

4. On Stefanie Stantcheva.

5. ChinaTalk submission hiring contest.

6. New Hamilton faculty at University of Florida, 21 of them.

7. Battery in your backyard? (WSJ)

8. How Americans are talking to Claude about politics.

The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to MT. What I'm getting at is that I already believe ... by BC
• In reply to Guy. The problem with all of this is that Israel ... by Ricardo
• In reply to Mark. ACORN’s own retrospective claimed ~$15 ... by kwazii
• In reply to skyzyks. Cf. ”equity of outcome” rather than ... by skyzyks
• In reply to Guy. The left does not make an exception for ... by Dismalist
• Plus 10 more...

 

We study the effects of H-1B immigration on U.S. industries that employ H-1B workers and their trading partners. Using a novel cross-industry design and the 1999–2003 expansion of the H-1B visa cap for identification, we find that H-1B exposure raised incomes for natives and pre-existing immigrants, with gains concentrated in non-STEM occupations. Income gains propagate forward through supply chains to downstream industries but not backward to upstream industries, consistent with a productivity shock rather than a labor supply shock. We find no direct effect on patenting, suggesting that productivity gains arise from better task execution rather than patentable invention.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Ran Abramitzky, Leah Platt Boustan, Ahmet Gulek & Jens Hainmueller.

The post The economics of H-1B immigration appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Sure. There is nothing wrong in changing zoning, ... by Mactoul
• In reply to BC. I could be convinced of tradeability. Of ... by Sure
• In reply to hash872. Tradeable would also mean transferrable ... by BC
• In reply to hash872. It's true, I'd forgotten that reform was ... by Hazel Meade
• In reply to Student. I can connect you with a seller tomorrow ... by Anti-Gnostic
• Plus 10 more...

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• Immigration and Macroeconomic Outcomes in OECD Countries
• The Apples and Oranges Tribunal
• On the Acemoglu-Autor et.al. fertility result

 

Karsen Lee Wahal, Stanford, is AI killing the web?, and measuring media slant.

Davy Deng, with Claire Wang (previous winner), whole brain emulation, MIT.

Enej Grmek, 16, Ljubljana, privacy.

Vladimir Shmelev, Ukraine, Ukrainian children for relief trips to Montenegro.

Nik Verma, Chicago, a legal framework for AI agents.

Emirhan Demir and Çınar Yıldırım, Istanbul area, 19, protection against AI agents.

Midhat Doruk, 14, Ankara, longevity, biology, and skin cosmetics.

Burak Yilmaz, 17, Diyarbarkir, Turkey, browser-native authentication.

Lloyd Strickland, London, to publish the remaining Leibniz papers, including on computation.

Abdul Quyum, 15, Perth, organizing information and data.

Catharine Young, podcast on women in science, science communication tranche, Cambridge/DC.

The post Emergent Ventures winners, 57th cohort appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to mkt42. Near San Jose there are many fewer 70mm, ... by MikeP
• In reply to MikeP. Evidently people in Portland are favoring ... by mkt42
• In reply to mkt42. My kid, who saw it in IMAX before seeing ... by MikeP
• In reply to Action Figure. I attended a talk yesterday where ... by mkt42
• In reply to Rahul. The web is already full of AI-generated ... by Action Figure
• Plus 4 more...

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• Emergent Ventures India, 18th cohort
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We study the demand for safety and liquidity in the crypto ecosystem. We do so under a framework in which a representative investor allocates liquidity across stablecoin deposits in lending pools and traditional safe assets (e.g., MMF shares). Our model delivers three main predictions: (i) the stablecoin deposit premium co-moves with the Treasury premium when investors value the safety and liquidity services of stablecoins; (ii) increases in Treasury supply reduce the stablecoin deposit premium; and (iii) drops in the perceived safety and liquidity of stablecoin deposits (e.g., due to de-pegs or hacker attacks) reduce their premium. Using granular data from hundreds of DeFi pools spanning multiple protocols, tokens, and blockchains, we find evidence supporting these predictions. Investors treat stablecoin deposits as money-like instruments that are borderless and permissionless, yet as fragile as other forms of privately produced safe assets.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Murillo Campello, Angela Gallo, Lira Mota & Tammaro Terracciano.

The post How does the market regard stablecoins? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• Come on, the real crypto news of the day is the most popular ... by Bob
• Well if you can't sell your stable coin to investors, just ... by Wayfaring Stranger
• How does the market regard stablecoins? They were the only ... by MikeP
• How does the market regard stablecoins? As substitutes for ... by Dismalist
• Are tokens like stablecoins, an opaque way to impose a user ... by rayward

 

2. PC on aesthetics.

3. An interview with Yiyang Zhuge.

4. The truth and aesthetics of going to church?

5. Some forms of math cope? And a different view.

6. At the demolition derby.

The post Monday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Dennis Duffy. This individual decision is a ... by ohwilleke
• In reply to steve. Fanny Crosby wrote 8000 hymns, the ... by anonprof
• In reply to ElsieT. Many of the tunes we associate with ... by anonprof
• As a former pure mathematician who still keeps in touch with ... by Sidd
• In reply to Moral Panic. But if he'd said “hood” British ... by dearieme
• Plus 10 more...

 

If you need them, here are various Bostrom links.

The post What should I ask Nick Bostrom? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to John from London. Hmmm. Maybe so. For that line ... by Jumfrey Tuckins, President of Texas
• If the VWH is true, then accelerating the development of ... by Eli
• In reply to Mark Bahner. My kingdom for an editing button. ... by Mark Bahner
• In reply to Moral Panic. I'm going to take a wild guess, and ... by Mark Bahner
• In reply to Anon. Yes, I remember Putin being interviewed on ... by Mark Bahner
• Plus 10 more...

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• On infinite ethics
• Could our preoccupation with mental health be part of the problem?
• Odysseus notes

 

Infinite numbers have long troubled utilitarian ethicists: if the universe is boundless, then there is infinite positive utility and infinite negative utility, and we can’t even define our current state, let alone affect it. Oxford philosopher Toby Ord proposes a solution: use hyperreal numbers, a mathematical construct in which infinite sums behave more like finite ones (for example, the sum of infinitely many twos is twice as big as the sum of infinitely many ones). As with so many philosophical ideas, this solves some existing problems while creating some new ones (pinpointing some hyperreals requires choosing something called an “ultrafilter”, but this choice is underdetermined). Still, Elias Schmied calls this a real philosophical advance, of the sort which comes along only rarely and makes genuine headway into a previously-hopeless-seeming problem. I’m just surprised there’s a way of thinking about infinities under which they behave logically. Why didn’t we start with this one, instead of being told that infinity + infinity = infinity and we should just accept it? Claude tries to answer my questions.

That is from Scott Alexander (many more links at the link, many on AI safety).

The post On infinite ethics appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Jim. Yes, maths can be abstract. But if you use a ... by JM
• In reply to Daniel Muñoz. Daniel, thanks for your answer. ... by Action Figure
• In reply to Kevin. Incidentally, in Pascal's Wager fails for ... by Guy
• In reply to Action Figure. Great question. My take is that ... by Daniel Muñoz
• We don't live in an infinite universe, if our physics theories ... by Paul Power
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• What should I ask Nick Bostrom?
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• Odysseus notes

 

The story I have told so far has emphasised the fit between Christianity and the Greek world of the early Roman Empire; I have given relatively little space to conflict.  That has been quite deliberate.  One of the commonest misconceptions about the early Roman Empire is that it was a time of ceaseless and inevitable suppression of virtuous Christians by a brutal governmental machine.  This is a myth that has roots in antiquity itself, and has been pumped systematically into western popular culture since the nineteenth centuury.  It is a remarkably durable myth, because it is both emotionally seductive and ideologically powerful.  The idea that virtuous Christians were engaged in endless conflict with the Roman state makes for great narrative.  But the reality is more banal: most Christians were fully integrated into Roman society, and no more or less harassed than anyone else…

My argument has been, rather, that Christianity could not have come into being in anything like the form we know it without the revolutionary impact of Augustus’ political reforms.  It was this seismic change that fundamentally transformed Mediterranean thought…The most dramatic effect of the Augustan swirl was Christianity itself: a breakaway Judaean sect led by brilliant entrepreneurs who understood the opportunities offered by the new political dispensation, and rapidly reshaped their ideas to suit new audiences.

Definitely recommended, and not only to Christians and Romans.

The post *Rome’s Age of Revolution* appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Hoosier. Women played a big part in converting ... by Mort Main
• You might try reading “The Rise of Christianity: How the ... by Mort Main
• In reply to ElsieT. Actually, it was Peter who had the dream ... by Anti-Gnostic
• In reply to Hoosier. I think the motivation is unimportant? ... by MR
• In reply to Kaleberg. The Coliseum wasn't finished before ... by Sure
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• What should I ask Jared Diamond?
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• Odysseus notes

 

2. The rise of million-dollar companies with just one employee (WSJ).

3. The political party itself is a big driver of polarization.

4. Gita Gopinath is making sense.

5. GPT Pro (not Astra) on what “Astra” means.

6. David Perell art history game.

7. New model of “Racing to Ruin.”

The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Rock Lobster. I didn't read it because I don't ... by Abelard Lindsey
• In reply to Rock Lobster. Correct. Three businesses in the ... by Robert
• In reply to mkt42. Looking at the _Modern Art_ page on ... by mkt42
• In reply to KL. That sounds like a much better way to invert ... by mkt42
• In reply to Quantitative Sneezing. I'll take a look at ... by mkt42
• Plus 10 more...

 

The post On the Acemoglu-Autor et.al. fertility result appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Lord Action. There was a movie by Mike Judge that ... by Anonymous
• In reply to Jonathan S. When I ask ChatGPT, it tells me that ... by Anonymous
• In reply to Slocum. Yeah, for once I've with Anti-Gnostic, I ... by d
• In reply to Slocum. That's a false binary. If fewer people ... by Anti-Gnostic
• In reply to Slocum. That's not a “downside.” There is no ... by Anti-Gnostic
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• The Value of Behavioral Policies
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The post Taiwan fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to M. “Yep, that's fine; I hear you and I'm not ... by Lord Action
• In reply to M. Yep, that's fine; I hear you and I'm not going ... by M
• In reply to M. “Indeed, this is a running theme and ... by Lord Action
• In reply to M. Though I'd also note that, for our discussion, ... by M
• In reply to M. “You appear to be a lot more impressed by ... by M
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• Mexico (Taiwan) fact of the day
• The economics of H-1B immigration
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Mexico has quietly become a cornerstone of the AI boom, providing 40 per cent of US imports this year of the computer servers that are widely used in the data centres powering artificial intelligence.

Taiwanese manufacturers are rapidly expanding factories in Mexico to assemble servers, which are now the country’s top US export, overtaking autos that dominated its trade for decades.

Mexico is the second-largest provider of enterprise servers to the US so far this year, with sales reaching $46.9bn, behind Taiwan, which sold $53.5bn, though Mexico became the largest on a monthly basis in May.

The phenomenon is helping prop up Mexico’s limp economy, pushing the country’s exports to record levels. Servers and related hardware made up almost one-fifth of the $317bn of goods Mexico exported between January and May, more than double the same period a year earlier. Taiwan, in turn, is now Mexico’s third-largest trading partner, up from eighth place in 2022. Taiwanese companies have spent more than $1.6bn since 2020 on Mexican factories that offer geographic proximity and tariff-free access to US tech giants spending hundreds of billions on data centres.

“Mexico is of tremendous importance to the way this new AI-powered economy is working,” said Jesse Rogers, head of Latin America economics at Moody’s Analytics. “It is really a new frontier of collaboration and even dependency on the Mexican economy when it comes to AI servers.”

Here is more from Christine Murray and Alan Smith at the FT.

The post Mexico (Taiwan) fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Tom Meadowcroft. I think actually building in the ... by TektonicShift
• In reply to rayward. “the St. Petersburg Times (n/k/a the ... by mkt42
• One of the many things that the Trump administration doesn’t ... by Tom Meadowcroft
• This should be no surprise to anyone. Mexico has been ... by PaulD
• In reply to ElsieT. That was – perhaps – true 50 years ... by Engineer
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