We study the demand for safety and liquidity in the crypto ecosystem. We do so under a framework in which a representative investor allocates liquidity across stablecoin deposits in lending pools and traditional safe assets (e.g., MMF shares). Our model delivers three main predictions: (i) the stablecoin deposit premium co-moves with the Treasury premium when investors value the safety and liquidity services of stablecoins; (ii) increases in Treasury supply reduce the stablecoin deposit premium; and (iii) drops in the perceived safety and liquidity of stablecoin deposits (e.g., due to de-pegs or hacker attacks) reduce their premium. Using granular data from hundreds of DeFi pools spanning multiple protocols, tokens, and blockchains, we find evidence supporting these predictions. Investors treat stablecoin deposits as money-like instruments that are borderless and permissionless, yet as fragile as other forms of privately produced safe assets.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Murillo Campello, Angela Gallo, Lira Mota & Tammaro Terracciano.

The post How does the market regard stablecoins? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

2. PC on aesthetics.

3. An interview with Yiyang Zhuge.

4. The truth and aesthetics of going to church?

5. Some forms of math cope? And a different view.

6. At the demolition derby.

The post Monday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• 4. I was religiously observant for a number of years. I could ... by Anti-Gnostic
• In reply to Jim Nazium. What about the possibility that we ... by BC
• #4 – Religion is basically proven to be untrue #1 – ... by MattW
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If you need them, here are various Bostrom links.

The post What should I ask Nick Bostrom? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• In reply to Abraham. Before asking that thermodymics ... by Mark Bahner
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• On infinite ethics
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Infinite numbers have long troubled utilitarian ethicists: if the universe is boundless, then there is infinite positive utility and infinite negative utility, and we can’t even define our current state, let alone affect it. Oxford philosopher Toby Ord proposes a solution: use hyperreal numbers, a mathematical construct in which infinite sums behave more like finite ones (for example, the sum of infinitely many twos is twice as big as the sum of infinitely many ones). As with so many philosophical ideas, this solves some existing problems while creating some new ones (pinpointing some hyperreals requires choosing something called an “ultrafilter”, but this choice is underdetermined). Still, Elias Schmied calls this a real philosophical advance, of the sort which comes along only rarely and makes genuine headway into a previously-hopeless-seeming problem. I’m just surprised there’s a way of thinking about infinities under which they behave logically. Why didn’t we start with this one, instead of being told that infinity + infinity = infinity and we should just accept it? Claude tries to answer my questions.

That is from Scott Alexander (many more links at the link, many on AI safety).

The post On infinite ethics appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• In reply to kwazii. Thanks, pirate cat. by Frank
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The story I have told so far has emphasised the fit between Christianity and the Greek world of the early Roman Empire; I have given relatively little space to conflict.  That has been quite deliberate.  One of the commonest misconceptions about the early Roman Empire is that it was a time of ceaseless and inevitable suppression of virtuous Christians by a brutal governmental machine.  This is a myth that has roots in antiquity itself, and has been pumped systematically into western popular culture since the nineteenth centuury.  It is a remarkably durable myth, because it is both emotionally seductive and ideologically powerful.  The idea that virtuous Christians were engaged in endless conflict with the Roman state makes for great narrative.  But the reality is more banal: most Christians were fully integrated into Roman society, and no more or less harassed than anyone else…

My argument has been, rather, that Christianity could not have come into being in anything like the form we know it without the revolutionary impact of Augustus’ political reforms.  It was this seismic change that fundamentally transformed Mediterranean thought…The most dramatic effect of the Augustan swirl was Christianity itself: a breakaway Judaean sect led by brilliant entrepreneurs who understood the opportunities offered by the new political dispensation, and rapidly reshaped their ideas to suit new audiences.

Definitely recommended, and not only to Christians and Romans.

The post *Rome’s Age of Revolution* appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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2. The rise of million-dollar companies with just one employee (WSJ).

3. The political party itself is a big driver of polarization.

4. Gita Gopinath is making sense.

5. GPT Pro (not Astra) on what “Astra” means.

6. David Perell art history game.

7. New model of “Racing to Ruin.”

The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Bob. On issues like the minimum wage, anti-trust ... by Ricardo
• In reply to Gilligan. If we want to turn things around we ... by Hazel Meade
• In reply to The Original D. Think it's hard to make analogies ... by M
• In reply to Scott Sumner. For much of industrial history, ... by M
• In reply to mkt42. Yeah, it seems like the image order is ... by ndp_jwh
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The post On the Acemoglu-Autor et.al. fertility result appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• In reply to Slocum. That's a false binary. If fewer people ... by Anti-Gnostic
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• Taiwan fact of the day
• Immigration and Macroeconomic Outcomes in OECD Countries
• *Redefining Global Health in the 21st Century*

 

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• In reply to M. “Yep, that's fine; I hear you and I'm not ... by Lord Action
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• In reply to M. “Indeed, this is a running theme and ... by Lord Action
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• Mexico (Taiwan) fact of the day
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Mexico has quietly become a cornerstone of the AI boom, providing 40 per cent of US imports this year of the computer servers that are widely used in the data centres powering artificial intelligence.

Taiwanese manufacturers are rapidly expanding factories in Mexico to assemble servers, which are now the country’s top US export, overtaking autos that dominated its trade for decades.

Mexico is the second-largest provider of enterprise servers to the US so far this year, with sales reaching $46.9bn, behind Taiwan, which sold $53.5bn, though Mexico became the largest on a monthly basis in May.

The phenomenon is helping prop up Mexico’s limp economy, pushing the country’s exports to record levels. Servers and related hardware made up almost one-fifth of the $317bn of goods Mexico exported between January and May, more than double the same period a year earlier. Taiwan, in turn, is now Mexico’s third-largest trading partner, up from eighth place in 2022. Taiwanese companies have spent more than $1.6bn since 2020 on Mexican factories that offer geographic proximity and tariff-free access to US tech giants spending hundreds of billions on data centres.

“Mexico is of tremendous importance to the way this new AI-powered economy is working,” said Jesse Rogers, head of Latin America economics at Moody’s Analytics. “It is really a new frontier of collaboration and even dependency on the Mexican economy when it comes to AI servers.”

Here is more from Christine Murray and Alan Smith at the FT.

The post Mexico (Taiwan) fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• In reply to Tom Meadowcroft. I think actually building in the ... by TektonicShift
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I also was struck by the high proportion of Chinese visitors at this show, even though they are not especially numerous in Florence right now.

The main Rothko show, at Palazzo Strozzi, had an opening room showing Rothkos tied to Renaissance (!) art, mostly with works from early Rothko.  The rest of the exhibit had perfect lighting and was the best Rothko display I have seen.

Ken Griffin has very good taste in Rothko.  One of his works is here.

Visiting Florence in August is less unbearable than I was expecting.  So many other places have become crowded that the situation here does not phase me.  Plus the heat is keeping many away?  At dinnertime, there is no crush to get into the restaurants.

Moving on shortly, just here for one day!

The post Rothko show in Florence appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• The Rug Belt Atlas and Quiz
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2. Ugly architecture creates coalitions against development.

3. London is (modestly) degentrifying.

4. Is the “no forward guidance” approach failing? (FT)

5. Chinese interview with Christopher Nolan.

6. “social media use and school grades are unrelated for adolescents…meta-analytic evidence is not in support of dramatic claims relating social media use to mischief.” Link here.

The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• In reply to Tom T.. The problem has always been that the ... by Logan
• 1. consultants hired by the UK civil service tend to do the ... by D
• In reply to Peter. Please ignore the headline. The real data ... by Peter
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• “The latest figures show the capital has recorded its first ... by Peter
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The cost of generating the proofs for all 10 of these breakthroughs combined was under $2,000 at Sol API prices. We’re excited to see what scientists and researchers are able to create with our upcoming Astra models!

That is from Noam Brown, at the link you will find his list of the ten breakthroughs.  Here are some views on the import of these.

The post More math breakthroughs from GPT models appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Lord Hee Haw. It is indeed a remarkable shift—I ... by RAD
• At the very least we have the Star Trek computer minus the ... by Mark Bahner
• In reply to Brent Buckner. One stone to rule them all! by Stickler Boy
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OECD countries experienced declining native population growth and rising net immigration over 1990-2024. We compile a new dataset of net immigration rates to OECD countries from all origins and show that most of the increase came from non-OECD countries and was predominantly high-skilled. Push factors, network effects, and policy indices explain little of the large cross-country heterogeneity in immigration dynamics; unexpected shocks and surges were common. Using local projections and several sources of identifying variation, we then estimate the relationship between immigration and growth in GDP per capita, labor productivity, capital investment, and total factor productivity (TFP). Immigration from non-OECD countries was a significant predictor of GDP per worker growth, primarily through higher investment. High-skilled immigration, in particular, was associated with stronger human capital accumulation, faster TFP growth, and greater capital deepening. Native population growth, by contrast, had no or weakly negative effects on GDP per capita and productivity. These results are consistent with a large literature documenting the positive productivity and growth effects of immigration, especially high-skilled immigration.

That is from a new NBER working paper from Gaetano Basso, Mitali R. Mathur & Giovanni Peri.  The natives are just not that impressive!

The post Immigration and Macroeconomic Outcomes in OECD Countries appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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Aparajeet Shadangi, 17, received his grant to explore conceptual approaches to cosmic expansion and dark energy while continuing his formal academic preparation in cosmology.

Kevin Gibson, a student developer, received his grant for Crsynk OS, a Python-based operating system integrated with an AI assistant and focused on lightweight user interfaces and accessible computing. He is also developing WiseChat AI and an AI Voice Engine.

Vaishnavi Dilip, 13, received her grant to identify fire-resistant plants native to Indian ecosystems and plant them strategically as natural firebreaks in fire-prone areas.

Prince T. Philip, an independent cybersecurity researcher and product architect focused on high-impact, future-facing risks in modern software systems, received his grant to build a security audit tool that surfaces vulnerabilities and design assumptions missed by traditional scanners.

Michaela Cross, a writer and content creator, received her grant for Rose Chasm, a video project on the history of India and its relationship to America and the wider world.

Vivekanand Bhat and Rijesh Panicker received their grant for Pathika, to create immersive, augmented, multilingual onsite guided tours for heritage monuments across India.

Devanarayan, 15, received his grant for Open Horizon Observatory, a small open-access observing setup that produces and freely shares real astronomical data. He is developing low-cost workflows for time-series photometry and open data sharing for students and the public.

Roshan Kumar Gupta, 19, a computer science undergraduate, received his grant for TARS, a deterministic, physics-aware machine-learning pipeline for exoplanet discovery using TESS data. He aims to reduce false positives and identify physically credible habitable-world candidates in noisy observations.

Yajan Adhikari, 19, a materials researcher, received his grant to build an operating system for digitizing and scaling the management of recyclable materials.

Pranet Khetan, 17, received his grant to develop a novel, low-cost architecture for refreshable tactile graphics supporting STEM education for visually impaired students.

Karthik, 18, a space engineer, received his grant to research the use of remote sensing in agricultural insurance.

Alexander Hogeveen Rutter, an energy expert, received his grant for analysis and advocacy of least-cost resource adequacy planning and other market-based measures in India’s power sector.

Akshit Arora, an Engineering Physics student at IIT Delhi, and Bhavey Sehgal, a BITS Pilani student, received their grant for NeuroBridge. It uses eye tracking, computer vision, and AI to predict intent, giving people with ALS fast, confirmation-based speech instead of slow letter-by-letter eye typing, at a fraction of existing device costs.

Cartoonist Sumit Kumar and Vivekananda Roy Ghatak received their grant to advance their animated series Aaapki Poojita and produce short, animated sketches and redesign and relaunch the famous Bakarmax webtoon platform.

Progyan Das, 24, received his grant to develop fault-tolerant systems capable of using consumer devices for large-scale foundation model training.

Yash Chitte, an MBA student, received his grant to build a wall-climbing robot that autonomously cleans glass facades.

Khushi Jain, 23, an aerospace engineer, received her grant for NadirX Space, to build space-grade test infrastructure and hardware-in-the-loop systems that enable reliable testing of advanced space technologies and support future interplanetary missions.

Rishit Kapoor, an AI/ML researcher and engineer, received his grant for Periscopic Labs, which turns systematic reviews into living, AI-native infrastructure that keeps scientific claims traceable, verifiable, and continuously updated.

Koushik Das received his grant to build an explainable clinical decision-support system that helps primary-care doctors interpret complete blood count reports and detect anemia patterns more quickly and safely.

Shashank Sanjay, a medical student, received his grant to develop an affordable coronary stent.

Abrar Shahid, a systems designer using AI to reduce accessibility gaps, received his grant for Project Lumen AI, to build an AI translation layer connecting external eye photographs with retinal fundus scans and make eye-disease diagnosis easier.

Those unfamiliar with Emergent Ventures can learn more here and here. The EV India announcement is here. More about the winners of EV India second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth, tenth, eleventh, twelfth, thirteenth, fourteenth, and fifteenth , sixteenth, and seventeenth cohorts. To apply for EV India, use the EV application, click the “Apply Now” button and select India from the “My Project Will Affect” drop-down menu.

And here is Nabeel’s AI engine for other EV winners. Here are the other EV cohorts.

If you are interested in supporting the India tranche of Emergent Ventures, please write to me or to Shruti at srajagopalan@mercatus.gmu.edu.

The post Emergent Ventures India, 18th cohort appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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While donor-driven programs undoubtedly saved millions of lives, they also created unintended distortions in national health priorities.  Many governments in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia actually scaled back domestic health investments, as donor program filled key gaps in HIV/AIDS, maternal and child health, and infectious disease control.  In some cases, domestic health budgets shrank in real terms, even as external funding increased.  This phenomenon, often referred to as “fiscal substitution,” led to national health systems that were heavily donor-dependent, externally managed, and vulnerable to funding shocks.  Notably, this reliance emerged despite countries pledged to allocate at least 15% of their national budgets to health.  More than two decades later, only a handful has met this target.

That is from the new and useful book by Michael John Alastair Reid and Eric Paul Goosby.  But $150 for a not so thick volume!?  If the authors believe in aid, as they should, perhaps they could consider giving this book away for free rather than turning it over to Elsevier…?

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