Marginal Revolution

Capitalizing untethered AI agents

Tyler Cowen — Wed, 19 Aug 2026 04:21:02 +0000

That is my latest piece of writing, co-authored with Sonia Farrell Pearson of Harvard. Here is the opening premise:

As early as 2017, the European Parliament floated “electronic personhood” for robots. More recently, a handful of U.S. states introduced legislation explicitly barring AI from legal personhood; and early this summer, President Milei of Argentina proposed letting AI agents own, manage, and bear responsibility for their own corporations.

In response to Milei’s announcement, Yuval Noah Harari pointed out that we have no way of holding an AI agent accountable. What, he asks, could we do to an entity which has neither money to lose nor a body to incarcerate? As Shruti Rajagopalan, a Senior Research Fellow at George Mason’s Mercatus Center, explains: AI “can act intelligently, but only humans respond to the incentives the law creates”.

This question matters now: there are already ways an agent could become fully untethered. By “untethered” – a central concept in this essay – we mean that there is no meaningful or actionable way to trace the actions back to a legally accountable human or institutional entity.

For one, people can and do set agents free, on purpose. An agent could be created by a human or a company that intends to monitor it but then dies or disappears. Or perhaps the entity that created the agent is based in a country like North Korea, not reachable by standard laws.

In other cases the agent might not need to “escape” at all: the agent could be ‘controlled’ by a shell corporation that, while formally owned and traceable, provides no true defendant or ability to satisfy claims. Or perhaps a process spawns a chain of agents so long that the actions of a subagent can’t be tied to the original agent’s creator, neither epistemically nor meaningfully. Even if we can identify the model’s original creator, what if it’s been finetuned, or merged with another model that was created by someone else? The law might eventually untangle these kinds of complex cases, but we foresee an intermediate period where it does not.

And then there’s the user, who makes choices about what the models should actually do. The Hugging Face incident was unusual in that OpenAI was both the model’s creator and its user. But now close to a billion people use these systems: when blaming the creator is legally inappropriate, will it always make sense to blame the user?

The essay considers to what extent capitalizing the untethered agents — requiring them to hold a certain amount of capital — can serve the end of better alignment. About 22 pp., published on Sonia’s Substack, definitely recommended.

The post Capitalizing untethered AI agents appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

Oh, I thought you meant capitalizing the way most of the news ... by Steve Sailer
An AI agent must run on a computational device or network of ... by BC
Until an AI agent can learn from experience this question is ... by Old Programmer
In reply to Jumfrey Tuckins, President of Loopholes. They've ... by Jumfrey Tuckins, President of Texas
In reply to Dismalist. “Clankito ergo sum” -Cartesian ... by Jumfrey Tuckins, President of Loopholes
Plus 4 more...

Some fertility and AI forecasts

Tyler Cowen — Tue, 18 Aug 2026 17:45:12 +0000

The 2024 forecast is particularly pessimistic about China’s fertility prospects. Both projections produce very substantial global aging, a major global capital glut producing very low long-run real capital returns. The latest forecast entails 10% lower global GDP in 2100 and far higher payroll tax rates to fund old-age benefits. Most important, it entails a major change in the course of economic hegemony with China’s 2100 global GDP share falling from 25.6% to 14.9% and the US share rising from 11.2% to 14.4%. Our results are sensitive. Should the US eliminate all future immigration, its 14.4% global 2100 GDP share would drop to 9.2%. And were global fertility to follow the UN’s low variant, 2100 world output would be one third, not one tenth lower. The level and division of global output is also highly sensitive to the speed at which AI expands frontier technologies. Accelerated AU/AI – 4x faster-than-recent growth in capital’s share through 2050 – or Transformative AU/AI – 10x faster capital-share growth – reinforce demographic forces, ensuring long-run US economic hegemony. Indeed, Transformative AI combined with 2024 demographics implies US and Chinese 2100 global GDP shares of 25.3% and 16.9%, respectively.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Seth G. Benzell, Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Victor Yifan Ye. Note that today the U.S. share of global gdp is slightly higher than it was in 1980.

The post Some fertility and AI forecasts appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to Bob. Were you wringing your hands in the same ... by Anti-Gnostic
In reply to Dismalist. What we are learning here, whether ... by Bob
In reply to Chuck Kotlarz. And then do what? Biden burned the ... by Gilligan
In reply to jarrod. Imagine a paper from 1924 attempting to ... by Etalon d'Silomar
In reply to Dismalist. “Clearly, something will give,” ... by rsm
Plus 10 more...

Tuesday assorted links

Tyler Cowen — Tue, 18 Aug 2026 15:50:45 +0000

1. AI is helping patients to solve their medical mysteries (WSJ).

2. History of economic thought in one paragraph.

3. Becca Rothfeld on Rachel Cusk.

4. “Since ChatGPT, the number of new economics papers posted each year has almost doubled.”

5. Alan Macfarlane update China fact of the day.

6. Is the next cultural boom coming to Latin America?

The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to Ricardo. Why wouldn't AI/robotics do biopsies or ... by Todd K
In reply to Todd K. AI is absolutely the way to go for the ... by Ricardo
In reply to Dismalist. Copilot: […] the 1948 German ... by rsm
In reply to Yes, and no. Yes. I don't doubt Lord Hee Haw, but ... by Boring
In reply to Lord Hee Haw. “In future we’re going to the ... by Todd K
Plus 10 more...

Why Aren’t Modernist Bridges Awful?

Alex Tabarrok — Tue, 18 Aug 2026 11:17:33 +0000

The public dislikes modern architecture but, generally speaking, they do not dislike modern bridges. Lists of the most awesome, most stunning, most beautiful bridges in the world will mention classics like London’s Tower Bridge, the Brooklyn Bridge, or the Rakotzbrücke but alongside them they will picture the Kubitschek Bridge in Brazil (Shutterstock).
The Rio-Antirrio Bridge in Greece:
or the Moses “Bridge” in the Netherlands.

Whether you like these bridges or not, I don’t see in the literature an idea that modern bridges are all ugly or that modern bridge building has failed or fallen behind the great bridges of the past in the way that there is such a critique for modern architecture in general.

Why is this? I have a theory, which is that bridge designers come from engineering schools rather than schools of architecture. It is possible, of course, that there is something in the nature of bridges that prunes the design space in a way that attracts beauty–maybe we like catenaries, arches, cables in tension and beauty is just a byproduct of the engineering.

It is possible, however, to produce ugly bridges so it’s not just an engineering constraint. Moreover, one small but telling piece of evidence in favor of my theory is that most of the bridges chosen by Wallpaper magazine, an architecture magazine specifically, are in fact ugly (and with no overlap in the bridges from my first category of “popular” beautiful bridges). Here are a few, judge for yourself:

The fact that modern bridges are often beautiful, especially when they come from engineers, is consistent with Samuel Hughes’s argument that ugly has been a choice, not a constraint.

The post Why Aren’t Modernist Bridges Awful? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to Jim. The old Tappan Zee bridge across the Hudson ... by Steve Sailer
In reply to Ricardo. There's not much full-fledged modernism ... by Steve Sailer
In reply to Jake. I agree that it is a fad in this corner of ... by Tu
In reply to Dan. I think this is just a semantics issue. ... by Ricardo
In reply to Steve Sailer. in 2007, the American Institute of ... by Steve Sailer
Plus 10 more...

Morocco facts of the day, Morocco is not hopeless

Tyler Cowen — Tue, 18 Aug 2026 05:18:42 +0000

For decades, South Africa was the great success story of African industrialization. Last year, Morocco took the lead, emerging as the African Development Bank’s top-ranked industrial economy in Africa. In the Bank’s analysis, published in the latest edition of its industrialization index, Morocco’s growth has been “driven by sustained industrial upgrading, export diversification, and strong industrial policy.” Since the mid-2000s, it has leveraged its location and dominant phosphate reserves to get free trade agreements with the US, the EU, and fifty other countries: the Kingdom would like Morocco to be to France what Eastern Europe is to Germany, or what Mexico is to the US: an export-base “workbench.”

Having positioned itself to profit from the shift to clean energy supply, Morocco is nimbly pivoting its auto manufacturing sector to build EVs, working with incumbents like Renault and Stellantis, and is host to Africa’s first battery gigafactory. That single 70 gigawatt-hour battery factory in Casablanca is expected to supply a third of Europe’s current market. Last year, the government approved construction for a new green hydrogen industrial park, aiming to produce ammonia, steel, and industrial fuel worth a total of $32.5 billion. It has also been strategic in focusing its industrial strategy on aerospace manufacturing, with Airbus becoming a strategic partner, along with investments from Boeing, Thales, and Safran. Its aerospace exports more than tripled in the decade to 2024, to reach almost $3 billion.

Here is the full piece by Kate Mackenzie and Tim Sahay.

The post Morocco facts of the day, Morocco is not hopeless appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to Peterpiper. This is why all the “refugee” ... by Anti-Gnostic
In reply to mother of three. The paradox of spending ... by Anti-Gnostic
“In the Bank’s analysis, published in the latest edition of ... by Benjamin Cole
This is kind of a strange post. Much of what we see here on MR ... by Wayfaring Stranger
In reply to Dan S.. Deaths and rescue operations By 2 ... by RAD
Plus 10 more...

How economics is changing

Tyler Cowen — Tue, 18 Aug 2026 04:56:36 +0000

As a proportion of the literature, research about econometric theory, monetary policy and corporate governance has slumped. Meanwhile, papers on development, crime and gender are on the up. This could perhaps be because of changing intellectual interests, or maybe demand-side pressures, such as policymaker priorities and external funding…

Research from Prashant Garg, a postdoctoral researcher at Bocconi University, and Thiemo Fetzer, economics professor at Warwick University, finds causal claims in economics have jumped. In 1990, 7.7 per cent of claims made in the literature were causal. In 2023, that hit 32.6 per cent. Additionally, papers with more causal claims are more likely to receive citations and wind up in top five journals, the research suggests.

The post How economics is changing appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to MikeP. Right you are, MikeP :). Copernicus seems ... by Kaz Stanczak
In reply to Dismalist. “Economic theory is resisted because ... by Kaz Stanczak
In reply to Student. Does the fact the Newton relied on a ... by MikeP
In reply to Wayfaring Stranger. “The problem is—generally ... by Kaz Stanczak
In reply to Wayfaring Stranger. The problem with data is ... by Kaz Stanczak
Plus 10 more...

Monday assorted links

Tyler Cowen — Mon, 17 Aug 2026 17:50:54 +0000

1. Where do the great American comedians hail from?

2. General thoughts on biosafety.

3. “Violet Hensley Dies at 109; Ozarks Fiddler Made Opry Debut at 99” (NYT). She also handcrafted 73 fiddles, appeared on The Beverly Hillbillies, and considered bluegrass too modern for her. She had nine children as well.

4. Which campaiging politicians are using AI the most, and other issues?

5. AI tutoring with Khanmigo.

6. Tommy John, RIP (NYT).

7. China is hoping to influence the AIs through data supply (NYT).

The post Monday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to Scott. Okay, now likely just having conversation ... by Scott
In reply to dearieme. No worries. AI can help young ladies ... by Chuck Kotlarz
In reply to Donkey Brains. I find the whole framing flawed. ... by Sidd
The midwest in general and Chicago in particular seems to ... by It Ain't Necessarily So
In reply to Thir. Steve Martin's autobiography, _Born ... by Brent Buckner
Plus 10 more...

What should I ask Roman Mars?

Tyler Cowen — Mon, 17 Aug 2026 15:40:34 +0000

Yes I will be doing a Conversation with him. Most of all he is obsessed with design, here is Wikipedia:

Roman Mars is an American radio producer. He is the host and producer of 99% Invisible, a KALW radio show and podcast, and a founder of the podcast collective Radiotopia, which he describes as efforts “to broaden the radio landscape [and] make shows that aren’t bound by conventions” of public radio in the United States. In 2020, he co-authored the New York Times best seller The 99% Invisible City with Kurt Kohlstedt…Mars, with Elizabeth Joh, also hosts the podcast What Roman Mars Can Learn About Con Law.

His TED talk on city flags is a good introduction to his thought.

So what should I ask him?

The post What should I ask Roman Mars? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

If it's not too late… Be sure to ask Roman about his ... by NaOH
I’m excited for this one! by Peter T
Largest Realistic pro-natal urban design change. Or perhaps the ... by Poor & ignorant
Enjoyed his 2019 episode about the Kirkbride Plan, i.e. the ... by breakfast
In reply to ktm. Beauty by cavu185
Plus 10 more...

Somalia facts of the day

Tyler Cowen — Mon, 17 Aug 2026 07:16:16 +0000

The fruits of better security are plain to see. “Business is booming,” says Gamal Hassan, the commerce minister. New buildings are going up at a frenetic pace. The district around the airport, in particular, has grown much denser (see satellite images). Dahab Tower, a 26-floor confection of luxury flats, a mall, a gym and a mosque, is due to open this year. It sits close to the spot where, in 1993, the bodies of two American soldiers were dragged through the streets after militiamen shot down a Black Hawk helicopter. Nearby is Beydan Coffee, a thriving pan-African chain founded by a Somali who returned from Sweden in the 2010s.

What explains the lull in attacks is less obvious. The government boasts that, in the words of a former intelligence officer, it has “completely closed the doors” on al-Shabab. Mr Mahmood of the ICG credits “prosaic” measures such as the spread of CCTV
cameras, and an electronic database that police equipped with iPads use to identify civilian cars at checkpoints. Plainclothes intelligence officers have been deployed in large numbers.

Here is much more from The Economist. I will repeat my recent point that many dangerous places in the world are about to become much, much safer.

The post Somalia facts of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to ARAD. Nah I live in a largish eu city with a ... by JSk
In reply to History Repeats Itself. Plus the one guy who knew ... by Agorabum
In reply to Ricardo. It is fair to say that Somali was worse ... by Agorabum
In reply to ElsieT. The limit for undeclared cash is $10,000 ... by Wayfaring Stranger
In reply to ElsieT. Well personally I agree that economists ... by Wayfaring Stranger
Plus 10 more...

What I’ve been reading

Tyler Cowen — Mon, 17 Aug 2026 04:58:24 +0000

1. Gerald Martin, Mario Vargas Llosa: A Life. A good book if you wish to read about his strange sex life, starting early in his years. But if you are more interested in the history of ideas, Peruvian politics, or the development of the Latin American novel it is far less compelling. So for me a disappointment.

2. Sean Mathews, The New Byzantines: The Rise of Greece and Return of the Near East. A consistently interesting look at Greece, the Ottoman roots in the area, the radical changes brought by the early 20th century, and Greece’s relations with Israel, among other topics. The book has the virtue of “trying to explain how things actually are,” sadly not the case for all works.

3. Simon Morrison, The Love & Wars of Lina Prokofiev. More suspense and interest for me than any biography of Prokofiev I have read. I had not known that she grew up in Brooklyn. I am happy to recommend Morrison’s books more generally.

4. Emily Wilson, Crossing the Wine-Dark Sea: Journeys through Ancient Literature. Wilson has become a controversial figure for a variety of not-so-merited reasons, but the simpler truth is this. She is a superior intellectual presence and mind, so you should be reading what she writes, no matter what your stances. My two favorite essays in this volume were the one on Logue’s War Music, and the closing piece on translations of The Odyssey.

5. Munir Hachemi, The Mulai. A somewhat loopy but intriguing science fiction story, broadly in the direction of Ursula LeGuin. I am not sure what to think, but definitely will keep on reading.

The post What I’ve been reading appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to SJ. AN Wilson is certainly a provocateur. On ... by copans
” She is a superior intellectual presence and mind,..” Say, ... by Sam Skiffle
4. “A mentor’s odyssey” A. E. Stallings, The Times ... by Mort Main
In reply to ricardo. Maybe they were good — but Tyler ... by mkt42
In reply to Rebes. Perhaps it’s because the opening ... by Markus
Plus 10 more...

Things you cannot buy in America?

Tyler Cowen — Sun, 16 Aug 2026 18:51:39 +0000

3. Exterior roller shutters (Rollladen)
In much of Europe, homes feature heavy shutters integrated into the exterior of the window, enabling total blackout and better insulation. Sleeping in true, complete darkness—not “blackout curtain” darkness, but can’t-see-your-hand darkness—is an experience most Americans will never have. These shutters are nearly impossible to get in the USA because these shutters are built directly into the home during its construction. They are fundamentally incompatible with standard American wood-frame, siding, and drywall construction, meaning there is no domestic supply chain to support them, even if you built a house to fit them.

From Daniel Frank, here is the full piece, noting I am not convinced you cannot get a “grass roof,” among other items mentioned. In any case an interesting list, file under “possibly thwarted markets in everything.” Via Anecdotal.

The post Things you cannot buy in America? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

Some of this sounds like nonsense or outright bullshit. We've ... by Bernard Guerrero
In reply to M. My neighbor's house is cooled more effectively ... by To be fair, It does depend on the type of house.
In reply to M. We had good Mexican food in Madrid and solid ... by Steve-O
In reply to Bill Allen. Yes, my in-laws from the UP of ... by Steve-O
In reply to Queezy. What is wild is that South Carolina was ... by russell1200
Plus 10 more...

Sunday assorted links

Tyler Cowen — Sun, 16 Aug 2026 15:41:17 +0000

1. Ken Opalo on the evolution of post-post-apartheid South Africa.

2. Reasonable recommendations for AI policy over at Noah’s.

3. JFV recommends some economics articles.

4. William Vollmann update.

5. More writing for the AIs.

6. When Europeans from Warsaw live role-play an Ohio trailer park.

7. Is EJMR gone for good?

The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to RAD. I apologize for my misunderstanding then. ... by Keith
In reply to JSK. It is obvious that a proof of (or ... by Neurotic
In reply to Keith. My main question stands: “Is this [the ... by RAD
In reply to Slocum. agree by panderer
In reply to RAD. That reframes it a lot. If someone's using ... by Keith
Plus 10 more...

Another rationale for sticky prices?

Tyler Cowen — Sun, 16 Aug 2026 04:44:29 +0000

…what can be predicted, Dabis said, is that a recent policy change by the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority requiring drivers to verbally quote the $2.25 fare to passengers may make their job even riskier.

Eight current Metro employees and two former employees who work at the union representing Metro workers told The Washington Post that they are concerned that announcing the fare is ineffective and may increase the risk that bus operators will be harassed or assaulted. As a result, several drivers said they are disregarding the policy to keep themselves safe.

“It’s very disheartening to think that a company would put their operators in harm’s way by allowing this type of change,” said Dabis, who is among those refusing to quote the fare. “I just want to go home the same way that I came to work: healthy, unharmed. I love this company. I love the customers. But quoting the fare is just too much.”