The fruits of better security are plain to see. “Business is booming,” says Gamal Hassan, the commerce minister. New buildings are going up at a frenetic pace. The district around the airport, in particular, has grown much denser (see satellite images). Dahab Tower, a 26-floor confection of luxury flats, a mall, a gym and a mosque, is due to open this year. It sits close to the spot where, in 1993, the bodies of two American soldiers were dragged through the streets after militiamen shot down a Black Hawk helicopter. Nearby is Beydan Coffee, a thriving pan-African chain founded by a Somali who returned from Sweden in the 2010s.

What explains the lull in attacks is less obvious. The government boasts that, in the words of a former intelligence officer, it has “completely closed the doors” on al-Shabab. Mr Mahmood of the ICG credits “prosaic” measures such as the spread of CCTV
cameras, and an electronic database that police equipped with iPads use to identify civilian cars at checkpoints. Plainclothes intelligence officers have been deployed in large numbers.

Here is much more from The Economist.  I will repeat my recent point that many dangerous in the world are about to become much, much safer.

The post Somalia facts of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

      

Related Stories

• A Conservative Case for Liberal Immigration
• Things you cannot buy in America?
• Another rationale for sticky prices?

 

2. Sean Mathews, The New Byzantines: The Rise of Greece and Return of the Near East.  A consistently interesting look at Greece, the Ottoman roots in the area, the radical changes brought by the early 20th century, and Greece’s relations with Israel, among other topics.  The book has the virtue of “trying to explain how things actually are,” sadly not the case for all works.

3. Simon Morrison, The Love & Wars of Lina Prokofiev.  More suspense and interest for me than any biography of Prokofiev I have read.  I had not known that she grew up in Brooklyn.  I am happy to recommend Morrison’s books more generally.

4. Emily Wilson, Crossing the Wine-Dark Sea: Journeys through Ancient Literature.  Wilson has become a controversial figure for a variety of not-so-merited reasons, but the simpler truth is this.  She is a superior intellectual presence and mind, so you should be reading what she writes, no matter what your stances.  My two favorite essays in this volume were the one on Logue’s War Music, and the closing piece on translations of The Odyssey.

5. Munir Hachemi, The Mulai.  A somewhat loopy but intriguing science fiction story, broadly in the direction of Ursula LeGuin.  I am not sure what to think, but definitely will keep on reading.

The post What I’ve been reading appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• Re: Vargas Llosa, I can recommend Jaime Bayly's “Los ... by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Related Stories

• That was then, this is now
• My very interesting Conversation with Daron Acemoglu
• Impedimenta Developerum!

 

3. Exterior roller shutters (Rollladen)
In much of Europe, homes feature heavy shutters integrated into the exterior of the window, enabling total blackout and better insulation. Sleeping in true, complete darkness—not “blackout curtain” darkness, but can’t-see-your-hand darkness—is an experience most Americans will never have. These shutters are nearly impossible to get in the USA because these shutters are built directly into the home during its construction. They are fundamentally incompatible with standard American wood-frame, siding, and drywall construction, meaning there is no domestic supply chain to support them, even if you built a house to fit them.

From Daniel Frank, here is the full piece, noting I am not convinced you cannot get a “grass roof,” among other items mentioned.  In any case an interesting list, file under “possibly thwarted markets in everything.”  Via Anecdotal.

The post Things you cannot buy in America? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to mkt42. I think it's not just about the risk a ... by European Troll
• In reply to JD. FWIW, finding a rice cooker in Japan that can ... by David, a Bostonian in Tokyo
• In reply to Fazal Majid. I think they're a southern European ... by Marie
• In reply to TG. This. Residential building codes even in ... by Marie
• In reply to TG. No question that e.g. Swedish residential ... by Marie
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• Regulated Markets Are Slow to Handle Change
• Intergenerational mobility of immigrants in 15 destination countries
• AI and Marginal Revolutions in Wastewater Treatment

 

2. Reasonable recommendations for AI policy over at Noah’s.

3. JFV recommends some economics articles.

4. William Vollmann update.

5. More writing for the AIs.

6. When Europeans from Warsaw live role-play an Ohio trailer park.

7. Is EJMR gone for good?

The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Roger Sweeny. *more quickly by [insert here] delenda est
• In reply to DP. I have a lot less respect for him after that! ... by [insert here] delenda est
• In reply to Cancelled for wongthink. You mean like Zimbabwe ... by Crowstep
• In reply to Steve Sailer. On the other hand, these days, AI ... by Steve Sailer
• In reply to mkt42. An alternative to moderation is a stiff ... by Steve Sailer
• Plus 10 more...

 

…what can be predicted, Dabis said, is that a recent policy change by the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority requiring drivers to verbally quote the $2.25 fare to passengers may make their job even riskier.

The post Another rationale for sticky prices? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to India Major. … it is also the most significant ... by Etalon d'Silomar
• In reply to DaveW. If you really need a sealed cabin, then ... by Gilligan
• In reply to Bill Allen. There's no logic to extending that to ... by Wayfaring Stranger
• In reply to Kyle. Almost thirty years left on that clock. But ... by Etalon d'Silomar
• Fairfax County schools are about to institute a completely ... by Tom T.
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• A Conservative Case for Liberal Immigration
• My very interesting Conversation with Daron Acemoglu
• Is there a Balkan fertility paradox? (from my email)

 

Will it ever come?

Of course this is the fantastic, and long, Bioy Cesares book Borges, his memoir of their friendship.

How can the reoptimization both be so distant and so exact in timing?

The post Adolfo Bioy Casares delay appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Jack Funchion. Yes, me too. My delivery is ... by It Ain't Necessarily So
• Hum… it's CASARES Adolfo Bioy CASARES…. by Michel Persitz
• In reply to Dismalist. He has other income-generating but ... by Tim
• In reply to Paco. Plus with his pace of reading, he could ... by M
• In reply to dmcharette. Time to re-read **The Unending Gift** by HB
• Plus 10 more...

 

2. Very interesting Anthropic piece on why multi-agentic systems seem to show more herd behavior and collusion than human systems.  And a comment from Rune Kvist.

3. Cross-cultural data on masculinity.

4. The Griers on the performance of Modi relative to synthetic controls.

5. Which federal datasets have been terminated?

6. The economics of NY state potato procurement.

The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Dylan. I just ducked “50lb potatoes” and had ... by Wayfaring Stranger
• 3: And this is why academics are disdained: “Masculinity ... by A B
• In reply to mkt42. There will be exaggerated medical claims ... by Tim
• In reply to Cancelled for wongthink. Whether or not Netanyahu ... by Mark Bahner
• In reply to Wayfaring Stranger. I'm in NY and just checked ... by Dylan
• Plus 10 more...

 

Or look at the AI revolution, another area where America is leading the world and also using its AI models to exert soft power. Dario Amodei of Anthropic has an Italian father, neural-network pioneer Geoffrey Hinton is originally from the U.K., and Elon Musk and Peter Thiel, who helped initially fund and found OpenAI, are from South Africa and Germany, respectively. OpenAI co-founder Wojciech Zaremba is from Poland. Musk and Thiel, of course, have other achievements to their credit as well. A significant portion of the employees at the major labs are Chinese. In one survey of published AI researchers, 38 percent received their undergraduate education in China, and 72 percent of those are working in the U.S.

Recommended, do read the whole thing.

The post A Conservative Case for Liberal Immigration appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Brent. From Google: An estimated 98,000 ... by Old Programmer
• This is an argument for making immigration targeted to more ... by Wiki
• In reply to Jamie_NYC. Tyler has been on auto-pilot repeating ... by Niko Davor
• In reply to Anti-Gnostic. What are the barriers to membership ... by Old Programmer
• In reply to Brent. Prompt for Gemini: What is the rate of ... by Old Programmer
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• Somalia facts of the day
• Things you cannot buy in America?
• Another rationale for sticky prices?

 

Russia presented the most remarkable contrast to both Eurasian and Western empires.  The oower of Moscovite tsars and Russian emperors seemed to be completely unconstrained by moral or ethical boundaries.  Whereas religious authorities in Europe, the Islamic world, and Cjhina kept some distance from the state and had a degree of independence from the rulers, in Russia the Orthodox Church was fully behind the autocratic powers of the tsars.  Ivan III was the first to adopt the title samoderzhets (a calque of a title of Byzantine emperors, literally “autocrat” in Greek), which he used in the sense of a “sovereign” ruler.  It took another half century before his grandson, Ivan IV, began to use the title to signal his exceptional, universal, and unrestrained power.

And:

To begin with, each Eurasian ruler conceived of himself as the sovereign of a universal, not natinoal, empire.  Such a ruler was non plus ultra; confident in his superiority over other religious or political bodies, he was destined to rule the world, if not politically, at least rhetorically, an autocrat whose subjects’ servile condition was a natural state.

Seen through the prism of a universal monarchy, the Eurasian imperial vision blurred the separation between metropolis and periphery, between the peoples within and outside the empire’s boundaries, between servitude and slavery.  Whether they were elites or commoners, all were considered to be in personal servitude to an emperor and often referred to by a term interchangeable with slave.

Consequently, Eurasian societies did not develop either the notions or the institutions that could enshrine the idea of freedom…

The concept of universal monarchy allowed for little differentiation between internal and external territories.

Recommended.

The post That was then, this is now appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Kaz Stanczak. Do not forget the de Tocqueville of ... by reader
• In reply to Edward Burke. Indeed, England in the early modern ... by mkt42
• Since neither Khodarkovsky's supplied excerpts nor Tyler's ... by Edward Burke
• In reply to dearieme. “Tall tales” implying that this is ... by M
• In reply to Al. Do you mind expanding on what you mean? by This comment seems highly innaccurate.
• Plus 9 more...

Related Stories

• My excellent Conversation with Julia Ioffe
• My very interesting Conversation with Daron Acemoglu
• What makes people happy?

 

2. “People think the superrich are unhappy,” she said. “They’re not.” (NYT)

3. Trailer for a Celibadache biopic.

4. Good Joshua Saxe post on the need for a better cybersecurity policy.

5. Refine goes to work on the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.  At some point we will be reexamining everything, good luck people.

6. A semi-consistent EA view that nuclear energy is bad (not my view though).

7. Updated AI and labor market results, and a summary here.

The post Friday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Dismalist. Gemini: […] If Hayek were ... by rsm
• 6. The problem with nuclear power is it's not cheap. Money ... by Crikey
• In reply to Dismalist. User name checks out by Sam
• In reply to RAD. Interesting post, but they start with ... by TMC
• In reply to tds. Years ago there was a guy called Walter ... by ndp_jwh
• Plus 10 more...

 

“I should note also that many (most? almost all?) of the bad scenarios have intermediate points of great worry and catastrophe” Not on my model. By the time any humans start worrying about a takeover or dying, AIs already control all infrastructure

That is from Twitter, and I hear or read that argument often.  It is yet another example of a bad “AI safety point” that does not stand up.

He is already a human worried about a takeover or dying!  It is weird to think that “I see these problems coming” and also think “…as these problems multiply and become more public, say through cyberincidents, other people and also the markets will not get clued in.”  It is assigning a remarkable oracle-like epistemic status to oneself, and then hardly to anyone else.  If the pending data will not persuade anyone else of your view, why do you hold your view so strongly?  Or if you think the ultimate denouement will be so sudden and furtive, how are you so clued in to the future now?  To me this is all obviously absurd, albeit not logically self-contradictory in the narrow sense.

As a side point, if the world does end suddenly, and you bought the puts out of your savings, but cannot cash them in, you still end up dying without having lowered your real level of consumption.

Rob Wiblin trots out a bunch of objections from the MR comments section that can be refuted readily.  You are really not sure which stocks to short and that is a big problem? — the risk is not that systemic then.  And if you think the world will see some significant calamitous events in the next ten years, and the evidence for that is piling up, yes you should be buying some puts, even if you are unsure on the timing.  Simple stuff.  (And no you do not need options contracts that last for ten years.)  The AI safety advocates with relatively extreme views should be trying to spread these points to their followers, not to retire them.

In general I am not a fan of psychoanalysis as a method of dissecting views, but the number and scope of obvious direct errors on this topic (and from very smart people) is so high that one has to wonder.  How about: “$100 billion in added cyber costs is not a significant enough worry, it is too mundane, too small a percentage of gdp, too normal and technocratic a problem…you can’t take my bigger and more dramatic fear away from me!  I won’t let you do that!  And besides, that view is the social glue that bonds my in-group together.”

The post Adding to the barrel of finance fallacies appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• No, he is saying that by the time enough people worry seriously ... by SS
• “As a side point, if the world does end suddenly, and you ... by Robert Simmons
• In reply to Nicolas Krause. If the collapse is fast enough, ... by Mark Bahner
• In reply to Jake. The AIs would have to develop a desire for ... by Mark Bahner
• In reply to BC. Stated opinion doesn't matter any more than ... by Aaron
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• Mistakes in financial economics
• Act like it is science
• Regulated Markets Are Slow to Handle Change

 

The basic idea is that regulation designed to prevent utilities from building useless power plants can induce them to keep obsolete power plants. Some background. We regulated electric utilities under the theory that they were natural monopolies and therefore we would do better by pushing their prices down. What’s a reasonable price? Hard to say, so regulated utilities were allowed to recoup their operating costs plus a fair return on their “rate base”—their capital stock. Makes sense, but once profits depended on the size of the capital stock, utilities had an incentive to build too much—the classic Averch–Johnson effect. Regulators responded with “prudence” requirements and the rule that capital must be “used and useful.” In a stable world, that rule is a check, albeit an imperfect check, on so-called gold-plating.

But now consider what happens in a time of technological change, such as a rapid decrease in the cost of generating electricity with natural gas (driven by fracking and improvements in combined-cycle natural-gas (CCNG) technology). In a free market, large decreases in costs would cause firms to abandon coal and move to natural gas—some would do this to make profits, others to avoid losses. In short, the market forces sunk investments to be abandoned when not profitable.

But there is another possibility under regulation. Tell the regulator that your plants are still viable. Well, telling is cheap talk so you keep burning coal to prove that the plant remains useful. If you can keep your base operating that’s better than abandoning it and to signal how valuable your coal plant still is, it may even be worth while to burn coal when the cost exceeds the price of electricity! The authors have some nice data on exactly this point.

Figure 3 takes a little work to understand, but the pattern is clear. Each point represents a state. In panel A, the vertical axis shows how much less likely a coal plant is to run when the cost of coal exceeds the price of electricity. Obviously, a strongly negative coefficient is the economically sensible response: when burning coal is more expensive than buying electricity, the plant should burn less.

The red points represent restructured states and the green points regulated states. In restructured states coal burning falls when prices fall, just as expected. Coal burning in regulated states responds much less. (I.e., the red points generally lie below the green points.) Indeed, the six states with the largest reductions in coal operation are all restructured states.

One objection to this analysis might be that utilities in general are just slow to respond to prices, so on the horizontal axis the authors plot how well utilities respond to a higher price of gas. Note that these coefficients are all negative and there is no obvious difference between regulated and restructured states. In both types of states, utilities respond well to the price of gas, but only in restructured states do utilities respond strongly to the price of coal. (Why coal and not gas? Because the used-and-useful standard binds on capital whose usefulness is in doubt—which, once gas got cheap, meant coal. In other words, the utilities have to defend coal to the regulators, not gas.)

Panel B on the right shows a slightly different way of presenting the same data. The vertical axis is again how much less likely a coal plant is to run when its cost exceeds the electricity price. The horizontal axis is the fraction of generation owned by electric utilities. Regulated states tend to be vertically integrated, while restructured states opened electricity generation to competition, so utility ownership and regulatory status are closely correlated. Regulated states generally have utility ownership above 60%, while all the restructured states but one are below 30%. The best-fit line slopes upward: in other words, the more generation a state’s utilities own, the less coal dispatch responds to price. A different perspective on the same story.

That is the direct empirical evidence. The authors then construct a more ambitious structural model. In theory, regulation could produce either too much or too little investment in the new technology; their estimates imply too much. Much, too much. Not only do regulated utilities retain too much coal, they also build too much gas capacity. In short, they accumulate both too much old capital and too much new capital. Averch–Johnson on steroids.

The bottom line is that regulation under dynamic conditions is much more difficult than under static conditions. My view is that it may not even be worth the candle.

The post Regulated Markets Are Slow to Handle Change appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Simon K. We already have public utility districts ... by Cee-Jay
• As a veteran of the electricity deregulation wars of the late ... by diz
• In reply to Tom T.. Let’s import 100k more H1Bs to screech ... by Zardoz
• You know, the saddest thing about this being a ... by John
• Why do so many Republicans ignore the state owned monopolies on ... by Jim
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• Things you cannot buy in America?
• Intergenerational mobility of immigrants in 15 destination countries
• Somalia facts of the day

 

As of 2026, humanity is likely below replacement fertility. That has never happened before, not in wars or pandemics. But the real surprise is that the fall has been concentrated in low- and middle-income countries and among poorer and less educated women. We fit a single-factor model to 236 countries since 1950: the common component peaked in 1978, and what drives fertility down today are country-specific trends, 219 of them negative and not one leveling off. None of the commonly cited mechanisms can account for this pattern, so we offer a conjecture: modernity itself, which makes a third child expensive and childlessness cheap. Children come in integers, so it takes very little to move a cohort’s fertility rate from 1.8 to 1.3. And nothing in an economy pushes fertility back to 2.1. We close with the main economic consequences, in particular slow growth.

When I read “The estimated common factor peaks in 1978 and has been declining since.” I do think of birth control, however, albeit with lags.  The actual availability of birth control, all economic and social constraints considered, is a lot more fraught and difficult than some of the more superficial accounts might indicate.

The post The Economics of a Shrinking World appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to anonprof. >…There are good students and bad ... by Mitchell
• In reply to Michael Tinkler. Formally, what I have in mind is ... by Kaz Stanczak
• In reply to Michael Tinkler. I’ve been thinking very hard ... by Kaz Stanczak
• In reply to Action Figure. Another interesting one – ... by M
• In reply to Action Figure. Gemini prompt: “what do the pisa ... by M
• Plus 10 more...

 

We estimate intergenerational mobility of children of immigrants in fifteen receiving countries. Children of immigrants have somewhat lower income than children of local-born parents. Around half of this gap can be explained by differences in parental income, with the remainder due to differences in mobility parameters. The daughters of immigrants enjoy higher absolute mobility than daughters of locals in most destinations. Absolute mobility of sons of immigrants is higher outside Europe and lower in Europe compared to sons of locals. Cross-country differences in absolute mobility are not driven by parental country-of-origin, but instead by destination labor markets and immigration policy.

Here is the paper, by Leah Boustan, et.al.  Via the excellent Samir Varma.

The post Intergenerational mobility of immigrants in 15 destination countries appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Steve Sailer. Denmark is one of the 15 countries ... by RAD
• In reply to rayward. Why are you on this particular hobby ... by Anti-Gnostic
• In reply to Ted Craig. We are abolishing labor-intensive ... by Anti-Gnostic
• In reply to Guy. Parlay that academic success into becoming a ... by Gman
• In reply to RAD. There’s no guarantee as to who those ... by Ted Craig
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• Things you cannot buy in America?
• Regulated Markets Are Slow to Handle Change
• Immigrant Earnings Assimilation, 1981–2021

 

An ability to mimic the shrieks of langur monkeys may not seem like a bankable skill, but for some Indians it has become a job, if not a calling.

These vocal professionals specialise in pest control and are being employed to keep out unwanted primates as Delhi prepares to host the badminton world championships.

The sound of the langur is the only effective deterrent to the smaller rhesus macaques that roam around Delhi in large numbers, stealing food and causing havoc.

Here is more from the Times of London.

The post Those old (new?) service sector jobs appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Jumfrey Tuckins, President of Primates. They ... by kwazii
• Apes making social agreements with other apes pretending to be ... by Jumfrey Tuckins, President of Primates
• In reply to kwazii. Omnivores may compete with herbivores. I ... by Neurotic
• In reply to Pshrnk. It's very specialized. The callers use ... by Tom T.
• In reply to Pshrnk. Langurs eat plants. Rhesus are omnivores. ... by kwazii
• Plus 10 more...