On this topic, I am seeing so many mistakes in financial economics across social media, but I will not go through them all.  It suffices to note that very smart people have their minds turn to mush when this topic comes up, especially the “sell short” side of the matter.

There is also the “beware isolated demands for rigor” response.  I should not have to demand anything.  If you are pretty worried about AI, you should be dying (yes pun intended) to provide that rigor, whether or not it is provided elsewhere.

How about a new policy?: “All AI safety expressions of despair, grief, panic, anger, or insinuations thereof, with or without gifs, shall be accompanied by an estimated percentage of gdp footnote.”  Would inject some real sanity into the discussion and drain out some of the all too rampant emotions.

The post How much will cybersecurity costs rise? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Edward Burke. In the final analysis, the ... by Dismalist
• In reply to JFA. Anything divided by GNP is a small number ... by Dismalist
• In reply to JFA. Looking at the report again… that is an ... by JFA
• In reply to JFA. Looking at it again… that report might be ... by JFA
• Are AI cybersecurity costs being imposed by AI tech firms on ... by Edward Burke
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2. Long Mark Zuckerberg/Meta piece on the future of AI.

3. “According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +29% jump in quarterly earnings for Q2 compared to the previous year.”

4. Conor Sen Substack on viewing the economy through a housing lens.

5. Southwood on Samuel Hughes on architecture.

The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Tom Meadowcroft. Finding a partner does have have ... by Peter
• In reply to Quantitative Sneezing. That ain't the half of it! by Moses Taylor
• In reply to Moses Taylor. The tech industry is always trying ... by Gilligan
• In reply to RAD. Yeah, happened to me yesterday and I ended ... by mkt42
• In reply to Hazel Meade. The main point of elite women ... by superdestroyer
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NME: Harry Potter fans have succeeded in moving a construction project that would have originally gone through the “grave” of the character Dobby.

The 125-mile Greenlink power connector, which costs £430million, is intended to link power between the UK’s National Grid and Ireland, running between County Wexford and Freshwater West in Pembrokeshire.

However, the latter site is known to Potter fans as the site of house elf Dobby’s grave in the film Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows, and contains a pile of stones with the words “here lies Dobby” that many flock to…

All I can say is that Voldemort would never have put up with this shit.

The post Impedimenta Developerum! appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• In reply to Heedless. Never ask for directions in Wales. ... by MikeP
• In reply to dearieme. Here are some more vowels. by Heedless
• I watched only a fraction of the movies (and usually watched ... by mkt42
• In reply to Tom Raus. Agreed. See MP Chris Curtis on this: ... by Jon
• In reply to MikeP. Child labor laws are an offense to freedom. by Biggles f'Tang
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Claude and I planted 100 known errors into 10 open-access psychology papers and then ran them through frontier models and two commercial AI review tools. In brief:

• The best single system caught 71 of 100 errors, while the worst caught 30.
• Pooling every system’s output caught 93 of 100. Models are only partly correlated in the errors they find, making ensembling a big lever for finding issues in papers. Check your papers against multiple models!
• Seven errors could not be caught by any system. All were omissions — information deleted from a paper rather than mistakes inserted into it.
• Refine.ink contributes more unique catches than any other single system, though it’s expensive.
• I didn’t measure false positives and I don’t know how this error distribution compares to the distribution of errors in real papers.
• I’ve made the papers, errors, model outputs, and the full experiment log public. I hope people can build on this work to create a comprehensive eval benchmark across disciplines.

That is from Paul Litvak, here is more.  Note that is not even using the very latest generation of models.

The post How well does AI peer review work? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• In reply to DeColagero. Stop believing what you read in the ... by RAD
• In reply to Gilligan. Yes, it does. AI reads much faster than ... by Kaz Stanczak
• In reply to Wayfaring Stranger. AI is training me now in ... by Kaz Stanczak
• In reply to mkt42. Consulted ANALYSIS_LOG.md on the linked ... by Daniel
• In reply to Someone with common sense. The papers in question ... by Bill Allen
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We trace the family origins of Members of Congress (MC) born between 1830 and 1950, linking each MC, their parents, and their brothers to the complete-count censuses. Future MCs have always been economic outliers. By 1940, close to 60 percent of MCs aged 18–40 held a college degree, against under 5 percent of comparable young men outside Congress. In the 19th-century censuses, MCs as adults held roughly three times the wealth of demographically matched controls. They also come from economically elite families: their fathers earn more, attain more education, and hold more wealth. The brothers of future MCs sit between the population and the MCs themselves. Across the socioeconomic measures we compare, we calculate that roughly half of an MC’s adult premium is shared with his brother and the other half is his own. Even as the American economy and political system have changed, the family background gap has widened over the last century and a half. Wealth, household servants, and four separate occupation-based scores all show the gap holding or growing across cohorts. We study four Progressive-Era reforms in a triple-difference design—women’s suffrage, the secret ballot, direct primaries, and the direct election of senators—and none produce detectable shifts in who reaches Congress. Our results document a Congress drawn from the most fortunate families in American society in every cohort we observe.

That is from a new NBER working paper by James J. Feigenbaum, Andrew B. Hall, Daniel M. Thompson & Jesse Yoder.

The post Who enters Congress? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• In reply to Gilligan. Term limits across the board. Yes, ... by California
• Say what you will, but the Shaman would have brought in some ... by Tom T.
• In reply to BC. The voters must be really classist because ... by Hazel Meade
• In reply to Florian. Does the party offer financial support ... by Tom T.
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I am automating investigative journalism at http://Effort.News

We’re breaking five stories today based on verifiable financial data which everyone missed for years.

Here is the entire thread, which also describes the five stories.

The post Brian Chau at work appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• In reply to TMC. Those are simply two out of hundreds of ... by mkt42
• “∙ Catholic/mainline Protestant refugee contractors framed ... by Harun
• In reply to Scott H. Welcome to the MR comment section, where ... by john
• In reply to mkt42. 2 webpages. Oh the outrage. by TMC
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2. “Our findings suggest that equality-oriented governments adopt an approach that insures the middle, buffers the poor, but spares the rich. The result is a rhetorical commitment to equality that eschews its most redistributive instrument(s).”

3. Francesco Cabella conversation with (an older) Victor Niederhoffer.

4. New homes in Tatu City, Kenya.

5. Bill Goichberg, RIP (NYT).  America’s greatest chess organizer, he was always very nice and encouraging to me.

6. John Crowley, RIP.

7. Data on literacy and reading.

The post Monday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• #4: But then you're living in Kenya. by Sparky
• In reply to Naveen_K. Assuming that the entire property tax ... by john
• In reply to Thomas L Hutcheson. Why do alternative uses even ... by M
• In reply to Slocum. >Nowhere do we have anybody gaining ... by reader
• In reply to dzhaughn. I really liked “Great Work of ... by M
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We study whether Democratic college professors make their students more liberal. We link voter data to salary records from 33 state flagships and show that faculty skew Democratic, especially in the humanities and social sciences. We then use student transcripts from one flagship to estimate causal effects. Students become more liberal during college regardless of major and sort toward ideologically similar instructors. Exploiting plausibly random variation in when instructors teach courses, we find no effect of faculty partisanship on student partisanship. Text analysis shows exposure to liberal topics reflects student demand rather than instructor supply, leaving little room for indoctrination.

That is from a new paper by Micah Baum, Joaquín Endara, and Annaliese Paulson. Via Jay Fan Bavel.

The post Do Faculty Affect Student Partisanship? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• In reply to rayward. “right wing crazies” like, uh, ... by &
• In reply to Action Figure. internet commenter? by Who is "we"
• What is the effect on students of having professors like Jason ... by Calvin Hobbes
• In reply to Dave. If someone is going to college for ... by Bob
• In reply to Grizzled Econ 101 Prof. I suspect that tribal ... by Sure
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So I have a simple request.  If you are worried, and wish to persuade the doubters, try the methods of science.  I would like to see the following:

1. Your outline of how, say two or three years from now, we might estimate the additional cybersecurity costs from the AI break-ins.  I am convinced that number is not zero, but give me your method please.  If it helps, here is an estimate of past cybersecurity costs, done by top economists.

2. Your current numerical estimate of what those costs might end up being, of course to be tested against what actually happens over time.  Obviously, you can do this for a few different regulatory/safety scenarios.  This is one simple way to prove yourself largely correct, albeit with a lag.  (NB: you do not have to take this as a substitute for your preferred safety measurres.  But please try to be specific in your predictions.)

3. A list of what stocks or other assets you have shorted, now.  Obviously if your answer to #2 is sufficiently low, you could answer here zero, as I would do.  I expect costs, but not so high that we cannot muddle through and have expected positive stock returns.

This would all help to make the discourse more scientific and less like an extended exercise in personal anxiety management.

If it is all so important, surely this exercise is worth the effort?

The post Act like it is science appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• In reply to Anonymous. Thank you, strongly agree. And most ... by David Manheim
• In reply to AI Doomer. They should be massively leveraged in ... by murmur
• In reply to Kyle M. Then you should be massively leveraged. ... by murmur
• In reply to Gilligan. It is not unique but disappointing to ... by Prester John
• In reply to Anon1. Also, if we all die who cares where the ... by Kyle M
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2. Modernist Gothic in Copenhagen.

3. AI-generated Odyssey in Vietnam.

4. Questions from Seb Krier.

5. Time magazine has a special version that only the AIs can read.

6. Tymofiy Mylovanov has a good summary of my greatest fear.

The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• In reply to rayward. I don't think anyone questions whether ... by Sidd
• 6. Seems like the naval blockade is having a pretty strong ... by stormy
• 6. As for fears about drones and Hormuz. There's really nothing ... by Steven Kopits
• 6. Tymofiy Mylovanov is a great commentator on Ukraine, in ... by Steven Kopits
• Test by Steven Kopits
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• “Ask not what your country can do for you—ask what you can do for your country.”
• “Let us never negotiate out of fear. But let us never fear to negotiate.”
• “United, there is little we cannot do… Divided, there is little we can do.”
• “If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich.

and from the 1962 moon speech at Rice University;

• We choose to do these things not because they are easy but because they are hard.

and from Lyndon Johnson’s inaugural speech:

• John Kennedy’s death commands what his life conveyed—that America must move forward.
• On the 20th day of January, in 1961, John F. Kennedy told his countrymen that our national work would not be finished ‘in the first thousand days, nor in the life of this administration, nor even perhaps in our lifetime on this planet.’ But, he said, ‘let us begin.’ Today, in this moment of new resolve, I would say to all my fellow Americans, let us continue.

Sound familiar?

Were John F. Kennedy’s speeches written by an AI? Probably not. But were AI’s trained on the speech writer Ted Sorensen? It would appear so. Or to be more accurate, AIs have absorbed the Sorensen toolkit: symmetry, parallelism, antithesis, repetition, and the neatly turned reversal.

Sorensen is considered a great stylist, and these are iconic lines. The problem with AI voice is not the techniques themselves. It is the overuse of them—their deployment to describe a trip to 7-Eleven with the same rhetorical flourishes once used to send men to the moon.

I suspect that will be an easy problem to fix, so don’t expect AI voice to continue.

Hat tip: murgh

The post JFK’s AI Voice appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• In reply to Engineer. Imagine saying a doofus like Trump is ... by Agorabum
• In reply to Etalon d'Silomar. Not to defend Mr Rubio, as ... by M
• In reply to j r. Called bathos, more generally, in literary ... by M
• We choose to do these things not because they are easy but ... by AM
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I agree with Tyler’s earlier review: A truly excellent movie, one of the best of the year.  Specifically, it concerns the meteorological forecasts (!) leading up to the D-Day invasion.  Thematically, it is about the differences between Americans and Brits, how bureaucracy operates, the nature of leadership, and the proper role of science in government.  It is like an old-style Hollywood movie.  Most of the action takes place in only a few rooms, and with superb dialogue and performances.  Although you all know how D-Day turns out, the movie still generates suspense on some of the major plot points.

The post Pressure appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• In reply to Echarles. He’s hideous as Eisenhower. by Etalon dSilomar
• Did they have climate change back then? Seems to be the answer ... by Mort Main
• Is it time for a 1984 on how the press would have covered D-Day ... by Kaleberg
• In reply to Bill Allen. And, eventually, a mare will give ... by Kaleberg
• In reply to rayward. Commies, Nazis – all flavors of ... by TMC
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• Believe it or not this song is sometimes even sexier when the ... by Michael L Davis
• In reply to Norman Quick. Her expression at 1:24 cracked me ... by Norman Quick
• Love this. Super cute but also amazing voices. by Norman Quick
• In reply to JWC. This is a Studio recording not a concert. by Norman Quick
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The Balkans may be the only region other than central Asia where fertility has increased from 2015 to 2026.*

All of the highest fertility rates in Europe are in the Balkans. As of 2024: Montenegro (1.8), Bulgaria (1.73) Moldova (1.73), and Serbia (1.64) are top four. France was next at 1.61.

Other balkan countries were generally about 1.5 (Slovenia, Croatia, Kosovo, Bosnia, and Slovakia), comparable to the highest non-gallic TFRs in Western Europe: Britain (1.55) and Ireland (1.47).

The lowest Balkan countries (Macedonia, Romania, Albania, and Hungary) sit at ~1.35-1.4, which would be lowish for Western Europe, but extremely high for Southern Europe or the former Warsaw pact/USSR.

During the post-soviet nadir, the Balkans had perhaps the lowest fertility in Europe. The rates rose circa 2010, and have recently continued to slowly rise.

Ostensibly similar cultures/economies have no parallel increase (Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, and the Baltics).

I don’t have any theory that would explain this pattern. Balkan men are famously unhelpful husbands and fathers, and the Balkans aren’t any more religious than Poland, Italy and Belarus.

What could possibly be the deal?

That is from Thomas Hanes.

The post Is there a Balkan fertility paradox? (from my email) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• In reply to Vaquero. It's never been true, really. The ... by HH
• In reply to Sarah Majdov. Russia and Belarus and the Baltics ... by HH
• In reply to Marie. Esp given that some of the mentioned ... by HH
• In reply to cwc. Poland, Belarus, and Italy have low TFRs but ... by HH
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As weapon systems increase in effectiveness, they will generally target one another rather than humans. Lower loss of life will ease conflict entry and hinder exit.

Warfare will veer further from industrial competition into techno-industrial; the current appearance of parity between low tech and advanced actors reflects near zero deployment of advanced systems. As these deploy, their martial advantages will present clearly.

The need for advanced ecosystems will lead to blocs able to combine human capital, techno-industrial capacity, and inputs. Logistics may be contested at elevated levels, changing the incentives around geographic size and increasing the value of inputs.

Blocs may well engage in near constant warfare of various intensity levels. Bloc composition will be necessity driven, perhaps with increased fluidity.

That is from an anonymous reader.

The post The future of warfare? (from my email) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• In reply to Dr. Cornelius. “Fast forward to 2026 and a ... by JSK
• In reply to mkt42. I'd just instantly pivot to hitting the ... by Anti-Gnostic
• In reply to Mal. Corollary from that: If you do find yourself ... by Lizard Man
• In reply to surfie. >> Where is Carthage? << It's a suburb ... by Old Programmer
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