Marginal Revolution

Brian Chau at work

Tyler Cowen — Mon, 10 Aug 2026 17:43:59 +0000

I am automating investigative journalism at Effort.News

We’re breaking five stories today based on verifiable financial data which everyone missed for years.

Here is the entire thread, which also describes the five stories.

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Monday assorted links

Tyler Cowen — Mon, 10 Aug 2026 15:29:45 +0000

1. Tax land more heavily than structures.

2. “Our findings suggest that equality-oriented governments adopt an approach that insures the middle, buffers the poor, but spares the rich. The result is a rhetorical commitment to equality that eschews its most redistributive instrument(s).”

3. Francesco Cabella conversation with (an older) Victor Niederhoffer.

4. New homes in Tatu City, Kenya.

5. Bill Goichberg, RIP (NYT). America’s greatest chess organizer, he was always very nice and encouraging to me.

6. John Crowley, RIP.

7. Data on literacy and reading.

The post Monday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to y81. “Most of the appreciation in value that ... by BC
In reply to Naveen_K. With high (close to 100%?) real terms ... by M
In reply to TMC. Considering the average upper middle class ... by TJL
In reply to TomWinTejas. I live in a place with lots of ... by Old Programmer
In reply to Tom Meadowcroft. “35 years ago, most adults ... by TMC
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Do Faculty Affect Student Partisanship?

Tyler Cowen — Mon, 10 Aug 2026 06:49:07 +0000

We study whether Democratic college professors make their students more liberal. We link voter data to salary records from 33 state flagships and show that faculty skew Democratic, especially in the humanities and social sciences. We then use student transcripts from one flagship to estimate causal effects. Students become more liberal during college regardless of major and sort toward ideologically similar instructors. Exploiting plausibly random variation in when instructors teach courses, we find no effect of faculty partisanship on student partisanship. Text analysis shows exposure to liberal topics reflects student demand rather than instructor supply, leaving little room for indoctrination.

That is from a new paper by Micah Baum, Joaquín Endara, and Annaliese Paulson. Via Jay Fan Bavel.

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Act like it is science

Tyler Cowen — Mon, 10 Aug 2026 04:44:45 +0000

I am seeing so many doom prognostications, or least severe worries, due to the OAI/HuggingFace incident and related stories. But virtually all of these I find underargued to say the least.

So I have a simple request. If you are worried, and wish to persuade the doubters, try the methods of science. I would like to see the following:

1. Your outline of how, say two or three years from now, we might estimate the additional cybersecurity costs from the AI break-ins. I am convinced that number is not zero, but give me your method please. If it helps, here is an estimate of past cybersecurity costs, done by top economists.

2. Your current numerical estimate of what those costs might end up being, of course to be tested against what actually happens over time. Obviously, you can do this for a few different regulatory/safety scenarios. This is one simple way to prove yourself largely correct, albeit with a lag. (NB: you do not have to take this as a substitute for your preferred safety measurres. But please try to be specific in your predictions.)

3. A list of what stocks or other assets you have shorted, now. Obviously if your answer to #2 is sufficiently low, you could answer here zero, as I would do. I expect costs, but not so high that we cannot muddle through and have expected positive stock returns.

This would all help to make the discourse more scientific and less like an extended exercise in personal anxiety management.

If it is all so important, surely this exercise is worth the effort?

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Comments

In reply to Engineer. The development of unmanned weapons and ... by Someone with common sense
To #3 specifically, I'd ask Tyler this: Have you ever shorted ... by Old Programmer
In reply to Fergus. Ad 2. I'm shamelessly repeating: Testing ... by Kaz Stanczak
In reply to Gilligan. To the contrary, it seems MikeP cannot ... by Anonymous
#3 This is such a lazy argument that somehow is used ... by JP
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Sunday assorted links

Tyler Cowen — Sun, 09 Aug 2026 15:29:20 +0000

1. African use of Chinese AI (NYT). And what happened to Talenti gelato? (NYT) And the NIMBY brutalists who live in the Barbican (NYT).

2. Modernist Gothic in Copenhagen.

3. AI-generated Odyssey in Vietnam.

4. Questions from Seb Krier.

5. Time magazine has a special version that only the AIs can read.

6. Tymofiy Mylovanov has a good summary of my greatest fear.

The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to M. A few years ago this would have been ... by mdap
In reply to Lizard Man. That would make it Conrad's Heart of ... by M
In reply to M. I thought that it was a very effective parody ... by Lizard Man
In reply to dearieme. Is it that there is no amount of ... by Lizard Man
In reply to Scott Sumner. That they sold to Unilever tells ... by JMCSF
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JFK’s AI Voice

Alex Tabarrok — Sun, 09 Aug 2026 11:26:05 +0000

From Kennedy’s 1961 inaugural:

“Ask not what your country can do for you—ask what you can do for your country.”
“Let us never negotiate out of fear. But let us never fear to negotiate.”
“United, there is little we cannot do… Divided, there is little we can do.”
“If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich.

and from the 1962 moon speech at Rice University;

We choose to do these things not because they are easy but because they are hard.

and from Lyndon Johnson’s inaugural speech:

John Kennedy’s death commands what his life conveyed—that America must move forward.
On the 20th day of January, in 1961, John F. Kennedy told his countrymen that our national work would not be finished ‘in the first thousand days, nor in the life of this administration, nor even perhaps in our lifetime on this planet.’ But, he said, ‘let us begin.’ Today, in this moment of new resolve, I would say to all my fellow Americans, let us continue.

Sound familiar?

Were John F. Kennedy’s speeches written by an AI? Probably not. But were AI’s trained on the speech writer Ted Sorensen? It would appear so. Or to be more accurate, AIs have absorbed the Sorensen toolkit: symmetry, parallelism, antithesis, repetition, and the neatly turned reversal.

Sorensen is considered a great stylist, and these are iconic lines. The problem with AI voice is not the techniques themselves. It is the overuse of them—their deployment to describe a trip to 7-Eleven with the same rhetorical flourishes once used to send men to the moon.

I suspect that will be an easy problem to fix, so don’t expect AI voice to continue.

Hat tip: murgh

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Comments

Pressure

Alex Tabarrok — Sun, 09 Aug 2026 11:19:44 +0000

Who would have thought that someone could make a gripping movie about predicting the weather? Nevertheless, Pressure delivers. To be sure, it’s predicting the weather for D-Day. Excellent cast. Hews very close to the truth. The two camps really did divide on theory versus past prediction and the weather was as portrayed. After the war, John F. Kennedy asked Eisenhower what gave the Allies the decisive advantage during the D-Day invasion, Eisenhower replied, “We had better meteorologists than the Germans.”

I agree with Tyler’s earlier review: A truly excellent movie, one of the best of the year. Specifically, it concerns the meteorological forecasts (!) leading up to the D-Day invasion. Thematically, it is about the differences between Americans and Brits, how bureaucracy operates, the nature of leadership, and the proper role of science in government. It is like an old-style Hollywood movie. Most of the action takes place in only a few rooms, and with superb dialogue and performances. Although you all know how D-Day turns out, the movie still generates suspense on some of the major plot points.

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Comments

Did they have climate change back then? Seems to be the answer ... by Mort Main
Is it time for a 1984 on how the press would have covered D-Day ... by Kaleberg
In reply to Bill Allen. And, eventually, a mare will give ... by Kaleberg
In reply to rayward. Commies, Nazis – all flavors of ... by TMC
In reply to Echarles. Unfortunately I will place more weight ... by Franzish
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One of the better pro-natalist Lieder

Tyler Cowen — Sun, 09 Aug 2026 06:46:47 +0000

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Comments

Believe it or not this song is sometimes even sexier when the ... by Michael L Davis
In reply to Norman Quick. Her expression at 1:24 cracked me ... by Norman Quick
Love this. Super cute but also amazing voices. by Norman Quick
In reply to JWC. This is a Studio recording not a concert. by Norman Quick
In reply to JWC. JWC, You're being way too ticklish. This ... by Manfred
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Is there a Balkan fertility paradox? (from my email)

Tyler Cowen — Sun, 09 Aug 2026 04:13:46 +0000

The Balkans may be the only region other than central Asia where fertility has increased from 2015 to 2026.*

All of the highest fertility rates in Europe are in the Balkans. As of 2024: Montenegro (1.8), Bulgaria (1.73) Moldova (1.73), and Serbia (1.64) are top four. France was next at 1.61.

Other balkan countries were generally about 1.5 (Slovenia, Croatia, Kosovo, Bosnia, and Slovakia), comparable to the highest non-gallic TFRs in Western Europe: Britain (1.55) and Ireland (1.47).

The lowest Balkan countries (Macedonia, Romania, Albania, and Hungary) sit at ~1.35-1.4, which would be lowish for Western Europe, but extremely high for Southern Europe or the former Warsaw pact/USSR.

During the post-soviet nadir, the Balkans had perhaps the lowest fertility in Europe. The rates rose circa 2010, and have recently continued to slowly rise.

Ostensibly similar cultures/economies have no parallel increase (Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, and the Baltics).

I don’t have any theory that would explain this pattern. Balkan men are famously unhelpful husbands and fathers, and the Balkans aren’t any more religious than Poland, Italy and Belarus.

What could possibly be the deal?

That is from Thomas Hanes.

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Comments

“I don’t have any theory that would explain this pattern. ... by glaukos
“Balkan men are famously unhelpful husbands and fathers” ... by Vaquero
They are Christian Orthodox dominated countries. The church ... by Sarah Majdov
The Balkans had a post war baby boom. Like the US and Europe ... by Peter
From working with men from Balkan and other ex Warsaw ... by D
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The future of warfare? (from my email)

Tyler Cowen — Sat, 08 Aug 2026 18:40:53 +0000

As weapon systems increase in effectiveness, they will generally target one another rather than humans. Lower loss of life will ease conflict entry and hinder exit.

Warfare will veer further from industrial competition into techno-industrial; the current appearance of parity between low tech and advanced actors reflects near zero deployment of advanced systems. As these deploy, their martial advantages will present clearly.

The need for advanced ecosystems will lead to blocs able to combine human capital, techno-industrial capacity, and inputs. Logistics may be contested at elevated levels, changing the incentives around geographic size and increasing the value of inputs.

Blocs may well engage in near constant warfare of various intensity levels. Bloc composition will be necessity driven, perhaps with increased fluidity.

That is from an anonymous reader.

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Comments

In reply to Dr. Cornelius. “Fast forward to 2026 and a ... by JSK
In reply to mkt42. I'd just instantly pivot to hitting the ... by Anti-Gnostic
In reply to Mal. Corollary from that: If you do find yourself ... by Lizard Man
In reply to surfie. >> Where is Carthage? << It's a suburb ... by Old Programmer
In reply to Mishkilji. We are unquestionably in a clash of ... by Anti-Gnostic
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Saturday assorted links

Tyler Cowen — Sat, 08 Aug 2026 15:42:08 +0000

1. Possibly AI-written pieces that have won literary awards.

2. HuggingFace co-founder on what happened, very good post.

3. What do private insurers want from a Hormuz agreement?

4. GPT Pro on burrito price worries.

5. NoVa vs. MD, once again.

6. Do people listen to female economists more?

7. North Korea might be growing at 3.5% (Bloomberg).

The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to rayward. Do people listen to any economists, ... by TWBC
In reply to Annanas. source? by anon
In reply to Hazel Meade. GLP-1 agonists will also reduce ... by M
In reply to Wayfaring Stranger. Oh, no doubt. I am an ... by Hazel Meade
In reply to Peter. Could you point me at the responses from ... by Hazel Meade
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Restoring Childhood: How to Set Kids Free in the Age of Anxiety

Tyler Cowen — Sat, 08 Aug 2026 06:43:54 +0000

That is the new book by Peter Gray, and it is very much a whole philosophy of child-rearing and also antidote to the current panic over social media. Excerpt:

In preparation for this chapter, I spent weeks poring over the research literature pretaining to smartphones, social media, and teen mental health. It is clear to me that there is something close to a consensus among scientists most immersed in this research, which includes the following three conclusions: (1) Extensive research refutes the theory that effects of smartphones and social media account for a meaningful portion of the decline in teen mental health in the years following 2010. (2) Smartphones and social media can have both beneficial and harmful effects on teens’ mental health, which tend to cancel out when averaging. (3) Future research should focus on understanding better the ways teens use these tools and how to help them maximize the benefits and minimize the harm.

Note that teen suffering also hit a peak around 1990 by many measures, yet that cannot have been caused by phones or social media. And European teen suicide rates were falling just as those in the United States were rising. This evidence is considered in further detail of course.

Recommended, it is both easy to read and substantive.

The post *Restoring Childhood: How to Set Kids Free in the Age of Anxiety* appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to MNL. Note that it's my quote, not Haidt's, and ... by Drea
Children are confused by confused parents. by Mort Main
The phones and other screens are just what we all use to pass ... by chuck
In reply to anonprof. In case you didn't notice. Jon Haidt is ... by patrick
Its the cars. Outside is dangerous for children, teenagers have ... by Matt
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What I’ve been reading

Tyler Cowen — Sat, 08 Aug 2026 04:43:17 +0000

1. Mike Jay, Wireheads: An Unnatural History of Technology in the Brain. Much of this story is told through the lens of the accompanying science fiction and non-neuro trends in other parts of science. An excellent book, substantive on every page, and it will make you want to read some of the works he cites.

2. Vasily Grossman, From the Front Line, Stalingrad-Treblinka-Berlin 1941-1945. Self-recommending, the best third of this volume is just stunningly good. You do not have to read the whole thing, as there is some degree of repetition.

3. Forough Farrokhzad, Let Us Believe in the Beginning of the Cold Season. She died in a car crash in 1967 at the age of thirty-three, but it turns out she was an amazing poet. I usually do not enjoy poetry in translation, but this is so fiery and full of passion that I am happy to recommend it. Surely in the original Farsi it is better (and quite different?) yet.

4. André Breton, Nadja. It is short, and fun enough to read. But one learns most books from the past are not masterpieces, and that surrealism as a movement — most of all in painting — was more important than the literary outputs of surrealism. Nadja, to me, sounds like a drag. Which is fine. But. What does Breton really think he is immortalizing here? At the end he writes “Beauty will be CONVULSIVE or not at all.” I do appreciate Breton for his understanding of Mexico, and for his cultivation of Haitian art.

5. Emma Southon, Servus: How Slavery Made the Roman Empire. A very good and aggressively readable book about how terrible slavery was in the Roman Empire. A useful corrective to other sources as well. While my general view is that interpretative disputes over antiquity are difficult to resolve, I find her interpretations more intuitive and more convincing than the other side of the debate.

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Comments

In reply to Jr. I was troubled by the use of the execrable ... by Anonymous
In reply to Mother of three. “Aggressively readable” is ... by mkt42
In reply to Dino Sauron. It has indeed been inexcusably ... by dearieme
Interesting tangent to 5… the story of Pope Callistus I ... by Student
In reply to Dino Sauron. Also, his comments about the book ... by Mother of three
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The Queen song ’39

Tyler Cowen — Fri, 07 Aug 2026 17:36:23 +0000

I only recently learned what it is really about, namely very rapid travel into space and time dilation mattering for the return voyage.

I had never before listened carefully to the lyrics. I heard the “’39” reference at the beginning, the mention of volunteeers sailing away, and the general nostalgic British music hall mood to the piece, and assumed it concerned the Second World War. But no, the volunteers sailing away are going to the stars, and their eventual return to the Earth will be for them a sad and tragic event, as everything they had known will be gone. You can listen to the song here.

Here is one of the most direct excerpts:

In the year of ’39 came a ship in from the blue The volunteers came home that day And they bring good news of a world so newly born Though their hearts so heavily weigh For the Earth is old and grey, little darling, we’ll away But my love, this cannot be Oh, so many years have gone though I’m older but a year Your mother’s eyes, from your eyes, cry to me

Here are the full lyrics. Brian May, who wrote the song, is not only a wonderful guitarist but he has a PhD in astrophysics.

p.s. no synthesizers!

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