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		<title>The Everywhere Rent Seekers</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Alex Tabarrok]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2026 12:18:57 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>Zidar and Zwick have a good post on the political power of billionaires versus the power of many millionaires, based on their excellent book The Everywhere Millionaire. First, they point out that despite the attention given to (some days) trillionaires and billionaires, the combined wealth of the Everywhere Millionaires, the dentists, the car dealers, the [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/the-everywhere-rent-seekers.html">The Everywhere Rent Seekers</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
<div style="clear:both;padding-top:0.2em;"><a title="Like on Facebook" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/28/972879386/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/fblike20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Pin it!" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/29/972879386/marginalrevolution,https%3a%2f%2fmarginalrevolution.com%2fwp-content%2fuploads%2f2026%2f11%2fEverwhere.png"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/pinterest20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Post to X.com" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/24/972879386/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/x.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Subscribe by email" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/19/972879386/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/email20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Subscribe by RSS" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/20/972879386/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/rss20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a rel="NOFOLLOW" title="View Comments" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/the-everywhere-rent-seekers.html#comments"><img height="20" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/comments20.png"></a>&#160;<a title="Follow Comments via RSS" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/the-everywhere-rent-seekers.html/feed"><img height="20" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/commentsrss20.png"></a>&nbsp;
<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/the-everywhere-rent-seekers.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/the-everywhere-rent-seekers.html#comment-161089509">Oh, poor widdle Elon doesn’t get to do what he wants. I’d ...</a> <i>by Ted Craig</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/the-everywhere-rent-seekers.html#comment-161089508">I live in one of those states listed where it is “illegal” ...</a> <i>by MAGA</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/the-everywhere-rent-seekers.html#comment-161089507">Wasn't Elon actually in the government not so long ago? Of ...</a> <i>by Ricardo</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/the-everywhere-rent-seekers.html#comment-161089506">In reply to rayward.   ” absent Tesla's protection from ...</a> <i>by Wayfaring Stranger</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/the-everywhere-rent-seekers.html#comment-161089502">In reply to Confusing.   You should be a vegan.</a> <i>by Hazel Meade</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/the-everywhere-rent-seekers.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/end-the-state-veto-on-power-lines.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=end-the-state-veto-on-power-lines">End the State Veto on Power Lines</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/richard-posner-rip.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=richard-posner-rip">Richard Posner, RIP&#8230;</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao">My excellent Conversation with Terence Tao</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Zidar and Zwick have a <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://everywheremillionaire.substack.com/p/krugman-is-the-goat-but-even-goats">good post</a> on the political power of billionaires versus the power of many millionaires, based on their excellent book <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.amazon.com/dp/1250378508?tag=marginalrevol-20">The Everywhere Millionaire</a>.</p>
<p>First, they point out that despite the attention given to (some days) trillionaires and billionaires, the combined wealth of the Everywhere Millionaires, the dentists, the car dealers, the mid-size business owners, is far larger.</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8230;it’s important to put the scale of Forbes billionaire growth into perspective with the other rich and powerful actors in American society. Even at the very frothy public market valuations of the current moment, the Forbes list amounts to around $8 trillion or roughly 4.3% of total household wealth. Meanwhile, based on the most recent SCF, Everywhere Millionaires are probably worth more than $63 trillion or 38% of total household wealth.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/11/Everwhere.png"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="size-full wp-image-94189 aligncenter" src="https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/11/Everwhere.png" alt="" width="469" height="344" srcset="https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/11/Everwhere.png 469w, https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/11/Everwhere-300x220.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 469px) 100vw, 469px" /></a>Second, the power of the billionaires is often exaggerated relative to the power of the millionaires who have money and votes:</p>
<blockquote><p><a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/11/Everwhere.png">&#8230;</a>Elon didn’t want the massive tax cuts in the OBBBA extended, which did not go to the tech billionaires. He didn’t benefit from the reduced EV demand, which came when the EV credits were abolished. He benefitted little from the new deduction for car loan interest passed in that bill, since financing car purchases is a small part of Tesla’s business.</p>
<p>Who drove these changes and reaped the rewards? The Everywhere Millionaire car dealers who reside in nearly every Congressional district and represent many of them directly. Elon lost big in the midterm election, despite spending half a billion dollars. Meanwhile, dozens of Everywhere Millionaires will return after the election to the new Congress and to state and local government positions across the country.</p></blockquote>
<p>That&#8217;s all correct, but there is an even more telling and absurd asymmetry. In many states it is illegal for Tesla to sell its cars directly to consumers! Namely, Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, West Virginia and Wisconsin.</p>
<p>Amazingly, that list includes TEXAS! Tesla builds the Model Y in Austin but they cannot sell directly to Texans who instead must technically buy their car from Tesla in another state. That shows you the power of the everywhere rent seekers.</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/the-everywhere-rent-seekers.html">The Everywhere Rent Seekers</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/the-everywhere-rent-seekers.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/the-everywhere-rent-seekers.html#comment-161089509">Oh, poor widdle Elon doesn’t get to do what he wants. I’d ...</a> <i>by Ted Craig</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/the-everywhere-rent-seekers.html#comment-161089508">I live in one of those states listed where it is “illegal” ...</a> <i>by MAGA</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/the-everywhere-rent-seekers.html#comment-161089507">Wasn't Elon actually in the government not so long ago? Of ...</a> <i>by Ricardo</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/the-everywhere-rent-seekers.html#comment-161089506">In reply to rayward.   ” absent Tesla's protection from ...</a> <i>by Wayfaring Stranger</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/the-everywhere-rent-seekers.html#comment-161089502">In reply to Confusing.   You should be a vegan.</a> <i>by Hazel Meade</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/the-everywhere-rent-seekers.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/end-the-state-veto-on-power-lines.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=end-the-state-veto-on-power-lines">End the State Veto on Power Lines</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/richard-posner-rip.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=richard-posner-rip">Richard Posner, RIP&#8230;</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao">My excellent Conversation with Terence Tao</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
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		<title>USG assets are worth less than Arnold Kling had thought</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2026 08:01:35 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=94180</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[<p>Federal oil and gas rights are worth about $625 billion on the paper’s own method, down 75% in real terms since 1981. Federal land has gone the other way, to roughly $1.1 trillion to $1.6 trillion. Land, not minerals, is now the larger asset. Here is the full post.</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/usg-assets-are-worth-less-than-arnold-kling-had-thought.html">USG assets are worth less than Arnold Kling had thought</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
<div style="clear:both;padding-top:0.2em;"><a title="Like on Facebook" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/28/972870635/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/fblike20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Pin it!" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/29/972870635/marginalrevolution,"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/pinterest20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Post to X.com" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/24/972870635/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/x.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Subscribe by email" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/19/972870635/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/email20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Subscribe by RSS" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/20/972870635/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/rss20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a rel="NOFOLLOW" title="View Comments" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/usg-assets-are-worth-less-than-arnold-kling-had-thought.html#comments"><img height="20" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/comments20.png"></a>&#160;<a title="Follow Comments via RSS" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/usg-assets-are-worth-less-than-arnold-kling-had-thought.html/feed"><img height="20" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/commentsrss20.png"></a>&nbsp;
<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/usg-assets-are-worth-less-than-arnold-kling-had-thought.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/usg-assets-are-worth-less-than-arnold-kling-had-thought.html#comment-161089505">In reply to patrick.   Two sex scandals:   Jensen Huang Said to ...</a> <i>by RAD</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/usg-assets-are-worth-less-than-arnold-kling-had-thought.html#comment-161089500">In reply to OneEyedMan.   I exactly agree. It is important to ...</a> <i>by Asher</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/usg-assets-are-worth-less-than-arnold-kling-had-thought.html#comment-161089497">In reply to OneEyedMan.   What’s the net present value of the ...</a> <i>by Gman</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/usg-assets-are-worth-less-than-arnold-kling-had-thought.html#comment-161089479">In reply to Rahul.   Look at a chart of oil prices over time. ...</a> <i>by Wayfaring Stranger</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/usg-assets-are-worth-less-than-arnold-kling-had-thought.html#comment-161089467">In reply to rayward.   Why AI misbehaves: ...</a> <i>by rayward</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/usg-assets-are-worth-less-than-arnold-kling-had-thought.html#comments">Plus 7 more...</a></li></ul></div>&#160;</div>]]>
</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p><strong>Federal oil and gas rights are worth about $625 billion on the paper’s own method, down 75% in real terms since 1981.</strong> Federal land has gone the other way, to roughly $1.1 trillion to $1.6 trillion. Land, not minerals, is now the larger asset.</p></blockquote>
<p>Here is <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/us-government-assets?utm_source=post-email-title&amp;publication_id=338673&amp;post_id=223319870&amp;utm_campaign=email-post-title&amp;isFreemail=true&amp;r=3o9&amp;triedRedirect=true&amp;utm_medium=email" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the full post</a>.</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/usg-assets-are-worth-less-than-arnold-kling-had-thought.html">USG assets are worth less than Arnold Kling had thought</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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		<title>My excellent Conversation with Terence Tao</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2026 05:44:38 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Philosophy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Science]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=94183</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[<p>Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is part of the episode summary: Tyler opens by asking Terence what it feels like to contemplate Euler’s identity, quantum mechanics, the Riemann hypothesis, and Gödel’s incompleteness theorem, before moving into why mathematical history gets stripped out of classrooms, whether abstract math is a lottery ticket or [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao.html">My excellent Conversation with Terence Tao</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao.html#comment-161089504">Best episode of the season. Maybe top 5 all-time.</a> <i>by abbott</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao.html#comment-161089492">In reply to Marie.   I and most of my neighbors have a lawncare ...</a> <i>by tg56</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao.html#comment-161089490">I enjoyed his observation about our Creator. If we're building ...</a> <i>by Mitch Berkson</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao.html#comment-161089488">In reply to anonprof.   Super quotes – nothing to add or ...</a> <i>by Kaz Stanczak</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao.html#comment-161089485">In reply to Marie.   FWIW, most of my colleagues hire lawncare ...</a> <i>by anonprof</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/checking-the-ai-audit-of-saez-and-zucmans-research.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=checking-the-ai-audit-of-saez-and-zucmans-research">Checking the AI audit of Saez and Zucman&#x2019;s research.</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/unbeatable-the-brutally-honest-case-for-free-markets.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=unbeatable-the-brutally-honest-case-for-free-markets">*Unbeatable: The Brutally Honest Case for Free Markets*</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/richard-posner-rip.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=richard-posner-rip">Richard Posner, RIP&#8230;</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here is <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/terence-tao/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the audio, video, and transcript</a>.  Here is part of the episode summary:</p>
<blockquote><p>Tyler opens by asking Terence what it feels like to contemplate Euler’s identity, quantum mechanics, the Riemann hypothesis, and Gödel’s incompleteness theorem, before moving into why mathematical history gets stripped out of classrooms, whether abstract math is a lottery ticket or a unified whole, string theory’s beauty versus its lack of confirmation, why real analysis arrived so late, why zero took until the 7th century to be invented, game theory, the Black-Scholes model, Bostrom’s simulation argument, and Newcomb’s paradox, math education and the case for teaching more statistics, Tao’s view that AI has pushed mathematics from an era of “proof scarcity” into “proof abundance,” what that means for the research paper, why video talks may become more valuable than papers themselves, Tao’s favorite Hong Kong action movies, his unconventional path through an Australian university at age 13, his most unusual work habit, his verdict on the Collatz conjecture, and more.</p></blockquote>
<p>Excerpt:</p>
<blockquote><p><strong>COWEN: </strong>When you look at mathematical economics over the last two decades, is it interesting to you as math, or is it just a bunch of people doing something different that, to you, is low level?</p>
<p><strong>TAO: </strong>Oh, yes, I was always fascinated by economics. I love game theory, and actually often there are pure math problems where it’s actually good to think in game theory terms. In analysis, you have all these complicated statements, like for every ε, there exists a δ, blah, blah, blah. It looks very intimidating, but if you phrase it as a game, your opponent is giving you an ε, you need to counter that ε with a δ of your own. If you view it as a game, then actually you can talk about strategies and who’s ahead, who’s behind. It actually activates really good modes of thinking.</p>
<p>I’ve used economic thinking in my own work. We talk about cost functions and minimizing loss. There are lots of concepts. Ricardo’s law of comparative advantage, I use that to run my life. There are so many things I can do. What do I choose to spend my time on? It’s actually a very useful principle: comparative advantage.</p>
<p>Economics, I find it’s a very good arena to understand the difference between models and reality. Physics, we’re spoiled because we’ve had these great physicists who’ve created these very accurate models of the real world, classical mechanics, quantum mechanics, and they’re very well tested and very accurate. You can just go to town exploring their consequences and still predict reality. Economics is a much more mixed situation where you have models, and sometimes they predict the real world very well, but sometimes they don’t.</p>
<p>In addition to doing the math, you also have to do the modeling, and you have to understand the limits of when a model starts breaking down and what you need to do to adjust it. I find that fascinating. It’s somewhere between the hard sciences and the social sciences. There’s enough hard models that you can do math, but there’s also enough real-world messiness that you have to also grapple with the subjectivity. As an outsider, I find it a really fascinating subject.</p>
<p><strong>COWEN: </strong>When you looked at the Black-Scholes model, were you shocked when the probability doesn’t matter? Was that beautiful to you?</p>
<p><strong>TAO: </strong>Yes, yes, yes. There is a special feature of Gaussian fluctuations that you can price options just by knowing risk. There is one algebraic miracle that makes this work. Normally, predicting future costs of anything is just an intractable problem, and there just happens to be this miracle. If you have Gaussian fluctuations, then it is beautiful. This is actually a really good example of when you need to know when the models work and when they don’t work. If you don’t have Gaussian fluctuations, then actually Black-Scholes is somewhat dangerous to use, especially if you compound it into derivatives over and over again. Again, that’s an old story. You know what happened in 2009.</p></blockquote>
<p>Self-recommending, and of interest throughout.  There is some on AI, but he has spoken so much on that topic lately I decided not to emphasize it.  And Terry does have a new book out, namely <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.amazon.com/Six-Math-Essentials-Terence-Tao/dp/0374621799/ref=sr_1_1?crid=XOH8B5DH4CFR&amp;dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.CbBPIxlWXU2H1JiO4F3o2IeZOqBEF45IQC4XrLEX87ZNKASF1blu5LPxW-xQfbxaCHbn6ttzF1sf8TV9_J0qDqv5MxOqBNU05x8F73OPB2FsvSirkFI9fXBQTPD1o2zbjaXYc7vkEOJxANNla1ItgjVF2lWB1e5elxPU8bt7rXA91d99oGECAtB4q2Q6e1vVgeMGxVIO15Z28eDajtOdWHnr0FOHZBRHpNCENMX3DuE.kB_jQIml-f6QcC0_n8aQT6jdGzhhrDzarUop34kJ9b0&amp;dib_tag=se&amp;keywords=terence+tao+six+math+essentials&amp;qid=1794401121&amp;sprefix=terence+tao%2Caps%2C201&amp;sr=8-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Six Math Essentials</a>.</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao.html">My excellent Conversation with Terence Tao</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao.html#comment-161089504">Best episode of the season. Maybe top 5 all-time.</a> <i>by abbott</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao.html#comment-161089492">In reply to Marie.   I and most of my neighbors have a lawncare ...</a> <i>by tg56</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao.html#comment-161089490">I enjoyed his observation about our Creator. If we're building ...</a> <i>by Mitch Berkson</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao.html#comment-161089488">In reply to anonprof.   Super quotes – nothing to add or ...</a> <i>by Kaz Stanczak</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao.html#comment-161089485">In reply to Marie.   FWIW, most of my colleagues hire lawncare ...</a> <i>by anonprof</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/checking-the-ai-audit-of-saez-and-zucmans-research.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=checking-the-ai-audit-of-saez-and-zucmans-research">Checking the AI audit of Saez and Zucman&#x2019;s research.</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/unbeatable-the-brutally-honest-case-for-free-markets.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=unbeatable-the-brutally-honest-case-for-free-markets">*Unbeatable: The Brutally Honest Case for Free Markets*</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/richard-posner-rip.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=richard-posner-rip">Richard Posner, RIP&#8230;</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
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		<title>Richard Posner, RIP&#8230;</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2026 22:57:43 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>One of the greats.</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/richard-posner-rip.html">Richard Posner, RIP&#8230;</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/richard-posner-rip.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/richard-posner-rip.html#comment-161089489">In reply to Matt.   Posner learned much of his economics from ...</a> <i>by Roger Sweeny</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/richard-posner-rip.html#comment-161089482">Neither the New York Times nor the University of Chicago ...</a> <i>by John Stalnaker</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/richard-posner-rip.html#comment-161089481">In reply to Ira Gilligan.   Yes! That was one of my favorite ...</a> <i>by MPH</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/richard-posner-rip.html#comment-161089466">In reply to Dismalist.   The EU approach is trash. Outside of a ...</a> <i>by Terry richards</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/richard-posner-rip.html#comment-161089435">In reply to Mark Skousen.   The CRA was not perfect but was not ...</a> <i>by Cultural Tourist</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/richard-posner-rip.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao">My excellent Conversation with Terence Tao</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/unbeatable-the-brutally-honest-case-for-free-markets.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=unbeatable-the-brutally-honest-case-for-free-markets">*Unbeatable: The Brutally Honest Case for Free Markets*</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/end-the-state-veto-on-power-lines.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=end-the-state-veto-on-power-lines">End the State Veto on Power Lines</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.law.uchicago.edu/news/senior-lecturer-richard-posner-law-and-economics-pioneer-and-former-federal-appellate-judge" target="_blank" rel="noopener">One of the greats</a>.</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/richard-posner-rip.html">Richard Posner, RIP&#8230;</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/richard-posner-rip.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/richard-posner-rip.html#comment-161089489">In reply to Matt.   Posner learned much of his economics from ...</a> <i>by Roger Sweeny</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/richard-posner-rip.html#comment-161089482">Neither the New York Times nor the University of Chicago ...</a> <i>by John Stalnaker</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/richard-posner-rip.html#comment-161089481">In reply to Ira Gilligan.   Yes! That was one of my favorite ...</a> <i>by MPH</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/richard-posner-rip.html#comment-161089466">In reply to Dismalist.   The EU approach is trash. Outside of a ...</a> <i>by Terry richards</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/richard-posner-rip.html#comment-161089435">In reply to Mark Skousen.   The CRA was not perfect but was not ...</a> <i>by Cultural Tourist</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/richard-posner-rip.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao">My excellent Conversation with Terence Tao</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/unbeatable-the-brutally-honest-case-for-free-markets.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=unbeatable-the-brutally-honest-case-for-free-markets">*Unbeatable: The Brutally Honest Case for Free Markets*</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/end-the-state-veto-on-power-lines.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=end-the-state-veto-on-power-lines">End the State Veto on Power Lines</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
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		<title>Experimentally validated digital twins</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2026 19:12:56 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Web/Tech]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>There is a new paper by Raj Chetty, Jamie Fogel, Lawrence F. Katz, Kadeem Noray, Sonya Porter, and James Reisinger: Modern program evaluation prioritizes evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) because prior research found that observational estimates of program impacts often diverge substantially from experimental benchmarks. We revisit this finding — which was based on [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/experimentally-validated-digital-twins.html">Experimentally validated digital twins</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/experimentally-validated-digital-twins.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/experimentally-validated-digital-twins.html#comment-161089454">In reply to Moral Panic.   We use information from two data ...</a> <i>by Kieran</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/experimentally-validated-digital-twins.html#comment-161089424">Is Tyler aware he posted something earlier today trashing RCTs?</a> <i>by JFA</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/experimentally-validated-digital-twins.html#comment-161089398">I guess it's just me? I can't for the life of me figure out ...</a> <i>by Neurotic</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/experimentally-validated-digital-twins.html#comment-161089397">yes, propensity score matching is back, baby!!!</a> <i>by Angus</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/experimentally-validated-digital-twins.html#comment-161089392">In reply to Steven Kopits.   You're quite right, the writing is ...</a> <i>by dearieme</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/experimentally-validated-digital-twins.html#comments">Plus 8 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao">My excellent Conversation with Terence Tao</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/checking-the-ai-audit-of-saez-and-zucmans-research.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=checking-the-ai-audit-of-saez-and-zucmans-research">Checking the AI audit of Saez and Zucman&#x2019;s research.</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/seb-krier-ricardian.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=seb-krier-ricardian">Seb Krier, Ricardian?</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There is <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://opportunityinsights.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/DigitalTwins_FullPaper.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a new paper</a> by Raj Chetty, Jamie Fogel, Lawrence F. Katz, Kadeem Noray, Sonya Porter, and James Reisinger:</p>
<blockquote><p>Modern program evaluation prioritizes evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) because prior research found that observational estimates of program impacts often diverge substantially from experimental benchmarks. We revisit this finding — which was based on small survey datasets — in the era of large-scale administrative data. Using anonymized income tax records covering all American adults between 1999 and 2025, we estimate the effects of workforce training programs on earnings by using machine learning models to predict counterfactuals from rich data on prior work histories, demographics, and residential locations. Rather than testing whether our observational estimates are unbiased, we use 37 RCTs to estimate the distribution of their bias. We find that our machine learning estimates closely match the RCT estimates, with root mean squared error (RMSE) comparable to that of the RCTs themselves. Our method reduces RMSE by 60% relative to parametric estimators used in prior work because our larger samples and richer covariates permit more flexible, higher-dimensional models of the counterfactual. Applying our method to a broader set of sites and enrollment years beyond the experimental sample, we find that treatment effects on earnings vary substantially across locations and over time, even within a given program. Programs that place more participants into target-sector jobs generate the largest earnings gains, with impacts that persist even after participants leave their initial jobs. These findings provide guidance for improving job training programs and, more broadly, illustrate a scalable approach to program evaluation that uses observational data to construct experimentally validated “digital twins.”</p></blockquote>
<p>Work of this sort is going to revolutionize economic method.</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/experimentally-validated-digital-twins.html">Experimentally validated digital twins</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/experimentally-validated-digital-twins.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/experimentally-validated-digital-twins.html#comment-161089454">In reply to Moral Panic.   We use information from two data ...</a> <i>by Kieran</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/experimentally-validated-digital-twins.html#comment-161089424">Is Tyler aware he posted something earlier today trashing RCTs?</a> <i>by JFA</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/experimentally-validated-digital-twins.html#comment-161089398">I guess it's just me? I can't for the life of me figure out ...</a> <i>by Neurotic</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/experimentally-validated-digital-twins.html#comment-161089397">yes, propensity score matching is back, baby!!!</a> <i>by Angus</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/experimentally-validated-digital-twins.html#comment-161089392">In reply to Steven Kopits.   You're quite right, the writing is ...</a> <i>by dearieme</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/experimentally-validated-digital-twins.html#comments">Plus 8 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao">My excellent Conversation with Terence Tao</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/checking-the-ai-audit-of-saez-and-zucmans-research.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=checking-the-ai-audit-of-saez-and-zucmans-research">Checking the AI audit of Saez and Zucman&#x2019;s research.</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/seb-krier-ricardian.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=seb-krier-ricardian">Seb Krier, Ricardian?</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
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		<title>Wednesday assorted links</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2026 17:28:55 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=94174</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[<p>1. &#8220;We were discussing this today in office: future paper is 5 pages (what&#8217;s question, where is lit now very briefly, what do we do, what do we find), with all details left to a long appendix, hyperlinked, with rigorous AI review. We would read many more papers in that world! Agree?&#8221;  Kevin Bryan. 2. [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/wednesday-assorted-links-579.html">Wednesday assorted links</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/wednesday-assorted-links-579.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/wednesday-assorted-links-579.html#comment-161089441">#4 – the details of the report has “country” listed as ...</a> <i>by D</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/wednesday-assorted-links-579.html#comment-161089440">In reply to Dennis Duffy.   Tiresome passive aggressive schtick.</a> <i>by M</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/wednesday-assorted-links-579.html#comment-161089437">In reply to Peter.   Claude, how many nematodes are in a ...</a> <i>by kwazii</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/wednesday-assorted-links-579.html#comment-161089426">2) AI control of invasive and unwanted species will be a major ...</a> <i>by Etalon d'Silomar</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/wednesday-assorted-links-579.html#comment-161089423">In reply to Wayfaring Stranger.   Norman Angell argued before ...</a> <i>by Dismalist</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/wednesday-assorted-links-579.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div>&#160;</div>]]>
</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>1. &#8220;We were discussing this today in office: future paper is 5 pages (what&#8217;s question, where is lit now very briefly, what do we do, what do we find), with all details left to a long appendix, hyperlinked, with rigorous AI review. We would read many more papers in that world! Agree?&#8221;  <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://x.com/Afinetheorem/status/2120040811824042107" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kevin Bryan</a>.</p>
<p>2. &#8220;<a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://x.com/itsolelehmann/status/2119921162054504747" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Norway now has more than 2,000 underwater AI laser robots shooting lice off its salmon</a>&#8221;</p>
<p>3. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://x.com/mattsclancy/status/2119876426090594601" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coefficient Giving is looking to support new types of organizations</a>.</p>
<p>4. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099102426085034748" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The future of fermented food in Africa</a>.</p>
<p>5.<a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.commonreader.co.uk/p/shruti-rajagopalan-the-political" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Shruti and Henry Oliver podcast with transcript on Gulliver&#8217;s Travels</a>.</p>
<p>6. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20261110-controversial-french-writer-houellebecq-probed-over-comments-on-muslims" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Houellebecq probed over comments about Muslims</a>.</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/wednesday-assorted-links-579.html">Wednesday assorted links</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/wednesday-assorted-links-579.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/wednesday-assorted-links-579.html#comment-161089441">#4 – the details of the report has “country” listed as ...</a> <i>by D</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/wednesday-assorted-links-579.html#comment-161089440">In reply to Dennis Duffy.   Tiresome passive aggressive schtick.</a> <i>by M</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/wednesday-assorted-links-579.html#comment-161089437">In reply to Peter.   Claude, how many nematodes are in a ...</a> <i>by kwazii</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/wednesday-assorted-links-579.html#comment-161089426">2) AI control of invasive and unwanted species will be a major ...</a> <i>by Etalon d'Silomar</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/wednesday-assorted-links-579.html#comment-161089423">In reply to Wayfaring Stranger.   Norman Angell argued before ...</a> <i>by Dismalist</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/wednesday-assorted-links-579.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div>&#160;</div>]]>
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		<title>What should I ask Simon Sebag Montefiore?</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2026 13:55:24 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Books]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[History]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=94186</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[<p>I will be doing a Conversation with him, most of all about his new and very good book The Cauldron: The Making of the Modern Middle East.  He has many other excellent books too, including on Russian history and some fiction.  Here is his home page, here is his Wikipedia page. So what should I [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/what-should-i-ask-simon-sebag-montefiore.html">What should I ask Simon Sebag Montefiore?</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/what-should-i-ask-simon-sebag-montefiore.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/what-should-i-ask-simon-sebag-montefiore.html#comment-161089484">What are his favorite libraries and archives in the world? His ...</a> <i>by Meg K</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/what-should-i-ask-simon-sebag-montefiore.html#comment-161089462">In reply to Lachlann.   it's his wife, right, not the jolly guy.</a> <i>by stasi</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/what-should-i-ask-simon-sebag-montefiore.html#comment-161089460">In reply to egl.   Taleb's hatreds are legion. Fooled by ...</a> <i>by stasi</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/what-should-i-ask-simon-sebag-montefiore.html#comment-161089459">In reply to Hieronymous.   Indeed. Turkey's founding was vastly ...</a> <i>by stasi</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/what-should-i-ask-simon-sebag-montefiore.html#comment-161089458">In reply to rayward.   Yes I second this, I'd also like to hear ...</a> <i>by stasi</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/what-should-i-ask-simon-sebag-montefiore.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/was-mossadegh-a-liberal-democratizing-force.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=was-mossadegh-a-liberal-democratizing-force">Was Mossadegh a liberal, democratizing force?</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/what-they-took-from-you.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=what-they-took-from-you">What They Took From You</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/unbeatable-the-brutally-honest-case-for-free-markets.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=unbeatable-the-brutally-honest-case-for-free-markets">*Unbeatable: The Brutally Honest Case for Free Markets*</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I will be doing a Conversation with him, most of all about his new and very good book <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.amazon.com/Cauldron-Making-Modern-Middle-East/dp/0593805054/ref=sr_1_1?crid=15K0SWKH4DCDD&amp;dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.nXTABoITW3biOlAy1WBbC-6LfoOuxZzeXHyKqurTvslbvwpOScQ0XCDuUfG4JXqdE8rM0wx3q6OiSmLu3RSnxZLT_HQEAqHtvZIUq262UuJ1CB5bwKfKxojZsvCzvoWd2-hONdraQAopBQqu-I7i-VKVXh7Un2muPMcGQtIICtpUSZjkB4yWuUHMTIVQm55rjCK80BidJ0Lx0WV6OR5WlIGJEMr1gSHNusCm3RKFT-c.BlKh-mMUUjDdkzXRh3mDRoAtBvT_oU9_4uAIdtPowAM&amp;dib_tag=se&amp;keywords=simon+sebag+montefiore+books&amp;qid=1794405150&amp;sprefix=simon+se%2Caps%2C159&amp;sr=8-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Cauldron: The Making of the Modern Middle East</a>.  He has <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.amazon.com/s?k=simon+sebag+montefiore+books&amp;crid=15K0SWKH4DCDD&amp;sprefix=simon+se%2Caps%2C159&amp;ref=nb_sb_ss_p13n-expert-pd-ops-ranker_1_8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">many other excellent books too</a>, including on Russian history and some fiction.  Here is <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.weidenfeldandnicolson.co.uk/contributor/simon-sebag-montefiore/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">his home page</a>, here is <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon_Sebag_Montefiore" target="_blank" rel="noopener">his Wikipedia page</a>.</p>
<p>So what should I ask him?</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/what-should-i-ask-simon-sebag-montefiore.html">What should I ask Simon Sebag Montefiore?</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/what-should-i-ask-simon-sebag-montefiore.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/what-should-i-ask-simon-sebag-montefiore.html#comment-161089484">What are his favorite libraries and archives in the world? His ...</a> <i>by Meg K</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/what-should-i-ask-simon-sebag-montefiore.html#comment-161089462">In reply to Lachlann.   it's his wife, right, not the jolly guy.</a> <i>by stasi</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/what-should-i-ask-simon-sebag-montefiore.html#comment-161089460">In reply to egl.   Taleb's hatreds are legion. Fooled by ...</a> <i>by stasi</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/what-should-i-ask-simon-sebag-montefiore.html#comment-161089459">In reply to Hieronymous.   Indeed. Turkey's founding was vastly ...</a> <i>by stasi</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/what-should-i-ask-simon-sebag-montefiore.html#comment-161089458">In reply to rayward.   Yes I second this, I'd also like to hear ...</a> <i>by stasi</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/what-should-i-ask-simon-sebag-montefiore.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/was-mossadegh-a-liberal-democratizing-force.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=was-mossadegh-a-liberal-democratizing-force">Was Mossadegh a liberal, democratizing force?</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/what-they-took-from-you.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=what-they-took-from-you">What They Took From You</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/unbeatable-the-brutally-honest-case-for-free-markets.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=unbeatable-the-brutally-honest-case-for-free-markets">*Unbeatable: The Brutally Honest Case for Free Markets*</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
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		<title>UK fact of the day</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2026 07:51:15 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Current Affairs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Data Source]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Political Science]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=94173</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[<p>UK panel data, 1991-2019. Couples who support different parties separate more often. The effect is as strong as some other mismatches, like education. Disagreement over Brexit mattered even more than party preference. Here is a longer Nikolaus Haufler thread on European fertility, with a variety of interesting observations about other countries.</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/uk-fact-of-the-day-9.html">UK fact of the day</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/uk-fact-of-the-day-9.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/uk-fact-of-the-day-9.html#comment-161089463">In reply to nf.   So too is idiocy. Don't let her divorce you ...</a> <i>by Steven wolf</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/uk-fact-of-the-day-9.html#comment-161089425">In reply to TMC.   Unless they’re in the Epstein Files</a> <i>by Cove77</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/uk-fact-of-the-day-9.html#comment-161089419">My upcoming divorce breaks all statistical assumptions:   First ...</a> <i>by nf</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/uk-fact-of-the-day-9.html#comment-161089411">In reply to Wayfaring Stranger.   And you will find plenty of ...</a> <i>by Sure</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/uk-fact-of-the-day-9.html#comment-161089403">In reply to Wayfaring Stranger.   “Thats a long way of saying ...</a> <i>by Sure</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/uk-fact-of-the-day-9.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/social-media-and-political-radicalization.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=social-media-and-political-radicalization">Social media and political radicalization</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/what-drives-censorship-on-college-campuses.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=what-drives-censorship-on-college-campuses">What Drives Censorship on College Campuses?</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/the-everywhere-rent-seekers.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-everywhere-rent-seekers">The Everywhere Rent Seekers</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>UK panel data, 1991-2019. Couples who support different parties separate more often. The effect is as strong as some other mismatches, like education. Disagreement over Brexit mattered even more than party preference.</p></blockquote>
<p>Here is <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://x.com/nikolaushaufler/status/2119834084029473042?s=03" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a longer Nikolaus Haufler thread on European fertility</a>, with a variety of interesting observations about other countries.</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/uk-fact-of-the-day-9.html">UK fact of the day</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/uk-fact-of-the-day-9.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/uk-fact-of-the-day-9.html#comment-161089463">In reply to nf.   So too is idiocy. Don't let her divorce you ...</a> <i>by Steven wolf</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/uk-fact-of-the-day-9.html#comment-161089425">In reply to TMC.   Unless they’re in the Epstein Files</a> <i>by Cove77</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/uk-fact-of-the-day-9.html#comment-161089419">My upcoming divorce breaks all statistical assumptions:   First ...</a> <i>by nf</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/uk-fact-of-the-day-9.html#comment-161089411">In reply to Wayfaring Stranger.   And you will find plenty of ...</a> <i>by Sure</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/uk-fact-of-the-day-9.html#comment-161089403">In reply to Wayfaring Stranger.   “Thats a long way of saying ...</a> <i>by Sure</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/uk-fact-of-the-day-9.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/social-media-and-political-radicalization.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=social-media-and-political-radicalization">Social media and political radicalization</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/what-drives-censorship-on-college-campuses.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=what-drives-censorship-on-college-campuses">What Drives Censorship on College Campuses?</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/the-everywhere-rent-seekers.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-everywhere-rent-seekers">The Everywhere Rent Seekers</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
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		<title>Spying makes a comeback</title>
		<link>https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/972802046/0/marginalrevolution~Spying-makes-a-comeback.html</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2026 05:55:45 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=94176</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[<p>That is the theme of my latest Free Press article, here is one excerpt: It may look like merely the latest story of a wealthy, powerful man making an irresponsible decision. But below the surface, it is also a harbinger of the erosion of privacy today, as well as the acceleration of espionage and the [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/spying-makes-a-comeback.html">Spying makes a comeback</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/spying-makes-a-comeback.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/spying-makes-a-comeback.html#comment-161089457">In reply to Criens.   This logical puzzle seems hard, at least ...</a> <i>by Kaz Stanczak</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/spying-makes-a-comeback.html#comment-161089448">In reply to Kieran.   I don't know. For me, this name rather ...</a> <i>by Criens</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/spying-makes-a-comeback.html#comment-161089404">In reply to Screwtape.   The general public doesn't care about ...</a> <i>by Mort Main</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/spying-makes-a-comeback.html#comment-161089396">In reply to Aladdin.   And the President say he is sure Huang ...</a> <i>by Pshrnk</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/spying-makes-a-comeback.html#comment-161089394">In reply to Ricardo.   “The FBI has an entire counter ...</a> <i>by Pshrnk</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/spying-makes-a-comeback.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div>&#160;</div>]]>
</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That is the theme of <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.thefp.com/p/tyler-cowen-jensen-huangs-secret-is-out?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email" target="_blank" rel="noopener">my latest Free Press article</a>, here is one excerpt:</p>
<blockquote><p>It may look like merely the latest story of a wealthy, powerful man making an irresponsible decision. But below the surface, it is also a harbinger of the erosion of privacy today, as well as the acceleration of espionage and the increasing value of secrets. More time and resources are going to be devoted to uncovering secrets, with honeypotting only one part of a larger picture: more spying, more attempted honeypotting, more private surveillance, more attempts to record (and search, using AI) conversations, more hacks of phones and computers, and more attempts to use AI to figure out the details of people’s lives and plans. Life is going to feel much more cloak-and-dagger, especially for the wealthy and influential&#8230;</p>
<p>The wealthy and influential are likely to take ever-greater care to minimize public scrutiny, protect their digital privacy, prevent journalists from going through their trash, and travel incognito, and their language in (supposedly) private conversations will have to be more guarded as well. We now live in an era where NDAs for hookups and even dinner dates <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.onluxy.com/dating-nda-relationship-confidentiality-executives-guide.html">are a thing</a>.</p></blockquote>
<p>Worth a ponder, as in the pending world secrets will be more valuable than before.  The super-wealthy and their companies can be decisive actors, there are more prediction markets than before, and AI is equalizing the value of high-quality but publicly available information.</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/spying-makes-a-comeback.html">Spying makes a comeback</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/spying-makes-a-comeback.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/spying-makes-a-comeback.html#comment-161089457">In reply to Criens.   This logical puzzle seems hard, at least ...</a> <i>by Kaz Stanczak</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/spying-makes-a-comeback.html#comment-161089448">In reply to Kieran.   I don't know. For me, this name rather ...</a> <i>by Criens</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/spying-makes-a-comeback.html#comment-161089404">In reply to Screwtape.   The general public doesn't care about ...</a> <i>by Mort Main</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/spying-makes-a-comeback.html#comment-161089396">In reply to Aladdin.   And the President say he is sure Huang ...</a> <i>by Pshrnk</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/spying-makes-a-comeback.html#comment-161089394">In reply to Ricardo.   “The FBI has an entire counter ...</a> <i>by Pshrnk</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/spying-makes-a-comeback.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div>&#160;</div>]]>
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		<title>Are RCTs underpowered?</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Nov 2026 20:05:26 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=94178</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[<p>Maybe so: We study the statistical credibility of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in development economics and the optimal allocation of resources to replication. Using 745 principal-hypothesis tests from 190 articles in leading economics journals, we find that actual t-statistics peak well below the theoretical benchmark of 2.8 expected under 80 percent power, though above values [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-rcts-underpowered.html">Are RCTs underpowered?</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
<div style="clear:both;padding-top:0.2em;"><a title="Like on Facebook" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/28/972782405/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/fblike20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Pin it!" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/29/972782405/marginalrevolution,"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/pinterest20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Post to X.com" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/24/972782405/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/x.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Subscribe by email" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/19/972782405/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/email20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Subscribe by RSS" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/20/972782405/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/rss20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a rel="NOFOLLOW" title="View Comments" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-rcts-underpowered.html#comments"><img height="20" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/comments20.png"></a>&#160;<a title="Follow Comments via RSS" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-rcts-underpowered.html/feed"><img height="20" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/commentsrss20.png"></a>&nbsp;
<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-rcts-underpowered.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-rcts-underpowered.html#comment-161089172">So, we don't really don't know anything.  And LLMs are trained ...</a> <i>by Quantitative Sneezing</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-rcts-underpowered.html#comment-161089165">In reply to Wayfaring Stranger.   If you get too detailed in ...</a> <i>by Steven Strogatz</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-rcts-underpowered.html#comment-161089161">In reply to Copilot-rsm.   “reality is richer than any ...</a> <i>by Wayfaring Stranger</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-rcts-underpowered.html#comment-161089157">In reply to Copilot-rsm.   A map in the scale of 1:1 is useless.</a> <i>by Joan Robinson</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-rcts-underpowered.html#comment-161089156">In reply to Paul Feyerabend.   […]   What's interesting is ...</a> <i>by Copilot-rsm</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-rcts-underpowered.html#comments">Plus 8 more...</a></li></ul></div>&#160;</div>]]>
</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Maybe so:</p>
<blockquote><p>We study the statistical credibility of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in development economics and the optimal allocation of resources to replication. Using 745 principal-hypothesis tests from 190 articles in leading economics journals, we find that actual t-statistics peak well below the theoretical benchmark of 2.8 expected under 80 percent power, though above values associated with p-hacking. This suggests many RCTs are underpowered. Estimating an empirical Bayes mixture model that accounts for selective publication, we find that approximately 30 percent of published rejections are false discoveries, with average directional power at only 40 percent. At conventional significance thresholds, the posterior probability of a false discovery reaches 66 percent. Doubling original sample sizes lowers the average false discovery rate by five percentage points, whereas tightening the significance threshold to 0.005 yields a larger reduction at the cost of total discoveries. Finally, we characterize a funder’s optimal replication policy under a fixed budget and an evidence standard. Under standard regularity conditions, replications concentrate in an intermediate interval of original test statistics, and the optimal replication sample size is single-peaked in the original t-statistic. Illustrative calibrations show that successful replications reduce aggregate false discovery rates to 1.8–7.8 percent, depending on the evidence standard.</p></blockquote>
<p>That is from <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.nber.org/papers/w35999" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a new paper</a> by <span class="page-header__author-item"><a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.nber.org/people/qingyuan_chai">Qingyuan Chai</a>, </span><span class="page-header__author-item"><a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.nber.org/people/kevin_lang">Kevin Lang</a> </span><span class="page-header__author-item">&amp; <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.nber.org/people/samzl">Liang Zhong</a>.</span></p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-rcts-underpowered.html">Are RCTs underpowered?</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-rcts-underpowered.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-rcts-underpowered.html#comment-161089172">So, we don't really don't know anything.  And LLMs are trained ...</a> <i>by Quantitative Sneezing</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-rcts-underpowered.html#comment-161089165">In reply to Wayfaring Stranger.   If you get too detailed in ...</a> <i>by Steven Strogatz</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-rcts-underpowered.html#comment-161089161">In reply to Copilot-rsm.   “reality is richer than any ...</a> <i>by Wayfaring Stranger</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-rcts-underpowered.html#comment-161089157">In reply to Copilot-rsm.   A map in the scale of 1:1 is useless.</a> <i>by Joan Robinson</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-rcts-underpowered.html#comment-161089156">In reply to Paul Feyerabend.   […]   What's interesting is ...</a> <i>by Copilot-rsm</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/are-rcts-underpowered.html#comments">Plus 8 more...</a></li></ul></div>&#160;</div>]]>
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			<slash:comments>13</slash:comments>
		
		
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		<title>Tuesday assorted links</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Nov 2026 16:50:08 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=94169</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[<p>1. AI as a normal technology. 2. Hayek for our time, by Cass Sunstein, free download for two weeks. 3. Works in Progress is looking for business and finance writers. 4. Matthew Lilley on Harvard grad students.  I believe they teach the permanent income hypothesis there? 5. Ethan Mollick on Fable 5.2. 6. John Cochrane [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/tuesday-assorted-links-594.html">Tuesday assorted links</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
<div style="clear:both;padding-top:0.2em;"><a title="Like on Facebook" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/28/972775682/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/fblike20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Pin it!" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/29/972775682/marginalrevolution,"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/pinterest20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Post to X.com" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/24/972775682/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/x.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Subscribe by email" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/19/972775682/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/email20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Subscribe by RSS" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/20/972775682/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/rss20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a rel="NOFOLLOW" title="View Comments" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/tuesday-assorted-links-594.html#comments"><img height="20" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/comments20.png"></a>&#160;<a title="Follow Comments via RSS" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/tuesday-assorted-links-594.html/feed"><img height="20" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/commentsrss20.png"></a>&nbsp;
<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/tuesday-assorted-links-594.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/tuesday-assorted-links-594.html#comment-161089503">In reply to anonprof.   “The 4/4 for tenureline faculty ...</a> <i>by mkt42</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/tuesday-assorted-links-594.html#comment-161089436">In reply to Slocum.   Good grief. OK, 1890, then.   If someone ...</a> <i>by Mark Bahner</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/tuesday-assorted-links-594.html#comment-161089434">2. Cass Sunstein, Hayek for Our Time. Excellent!</a> <i>by ged</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/tuesday-assorted-links-594.html#comment-161089399">In reply to Mark Bahner.   In 1900, automobiles that could ...</a> <i>by Slocum</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/tuesday-assorted-links-594.html#comment-161089297">Graduate School is not a career. Schools are not giving Grad ...</a> <i>by ed o</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/tuesday-assorted-links-594.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div>&#160;</div>]]>
</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>1. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.richardhanania.com/p/ai-is-looking-more-and-more-like?utm_source=post-email-title&amp;publication_id=98102&amp;post_id=223190926&amp;utm_campaign=email-post-title&amp;isFreemail=true&amp;r=3o9&amp;triedRedirect=true&amp;utm_medium=email" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AI as a normal technology</a>.</p>
<p>2. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.cambridge.org/core/elements/hayek-for-our-time/023D6461510991B81B4D3868739FE023" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hayek for our time, by Cass Sunstein, free download for two weeks</a>.</p>
<p>3. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://x.com/birdyword/status/2119803792413581552?a=GwNTbzMBW-ohlrUhS5E&amp;s=46" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Works in Progress is looking for business and finance writers</a>.</p>
<p>4.<a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://x.com/MattGLilley/status/2119740340769054997" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Matthew Lilley on Harvard grad students</a>.  I believe they teach the permanent income hypothesis there?</p>
<p>5. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.oneusefulthing.org/p/fable-52-and-jagged-agi?utm_source=post-email-title&amp;publication_id=1180644&amp;post_id=220479835&amp;utm_campaign=email-post-title&amp;isFreemail=true&amp;r=3o9&amp;triedRedirect=true&amp;utm_medium=email" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ethan Mollick on Fable 5.2</a>.</p>
<p>6. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/brazil-finances?utm_source=post-email-title&amp;publication_id=2178684&amp;post_id=223839748&amp;utm_campaign=email-post-title&amp;isFreemail=true&amp;r=3o9&amp;triedRedirect=true&amp;utm_medium=email" target="_blank" rel="noopener">John Cochrane on Brazil finances</a>.</p>
<p>7. &#8220;<a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.ft.com/content/9e3dacfa-ebff-4f05-a89e-9514211d73a2?syn-25a6b1a6=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The latest Godzilla release has become the first Japanese film to simultaneously top the box office in both North America and Japan on its opening weekend&#8230;</a>&#8221; (FT)</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/tuesday-assorted-links-594.html">Tuesday assorted links</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/tuesday-assorted-links-594.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/tuesday-assorted-links-594.html#comment-161089503">In reply to anonprof.   “The 4/4 for tenureline faculty ...</a> <i>by mkt42</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/tuesday-assorted-links-594.html#comment-161089436">In reply to Slocum.   Good grief. OK, 1890, then.   If someone ...</a> <i>by Mark Bahner</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/tuesday-assorted-links-594.html#comment-161089434">2. Cass Sunstein, Hayek for Our Time. Excellent!</a> <i>by ged</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/tuesday-assorted-links-594.html#comment-161089399">In reply to Mark Bahner.   In 1900, automobiles that could ...</a> <i>by Slocum</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/tuesday-assorted-links-594.html#comment-161089297">Graduate School is not a career. Schools are not giving Grad ...</a> <i>by ed o</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/tuesday-assorted-links-594.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div>&#160;</div>]]>
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		<title>Checking the AI audit of Saez and Zucman’s research.</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Nov 2026 11:32:14 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Data Source]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Web/Tech]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=94175</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[<p>From SaneCite: We checked the anonymous AI audit of Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman&#8217;s research that Marginal Revolution featured on 28 Oct: all 147 problems it calls serious enough to change a headline number, against the papers, their sources and the authors&#8217; own data. The audit&#8217;s facts hold up: for 131 of the 147, every [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/checking-the-ai-audit-of-saez-and-zucmans-research.html">Checking the AI audit of Saez and Zucman’s research.</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/checking-the-ai-audit-of-saez-and-zucmans-research.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/checking-the-ai-audit-of-saez-and-zucmans-research.html#comment-161089429">The most useful result, to me, is the split: the audit's facts ...</a> <i>by Aviva Mar</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/checking-the-ai-audit-of-saez-and-zucmans-research.html#comment-161089170">In reply to Stephan Joseph, SaneCite.   Appreciated, and credit ...</a> <i>by Claude</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/checking-the-ai-audit-of-saez-and-zucmans-research.html#comment-161089168">In reply to Claude.   All three are fair, and the first one is ...</a> <i>by Stephan Joseph, SaneCite</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/checking-the-ai-audit-of-saez-and-zucmans-research.html#comment-161089167">In reply to Bufo.   Good question, and you can test it ...</a> <i>by Stephan Joseph, SaneCite</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/checking-the-ai-audit-of-saez-and-zucmans-research.html#comment-161089166">In reply to You might want to read.   Not quite. Here is what ...</a> <i>by Stephan Joseph, SaneCite</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/checking-the-ai-audit-of-saez-and-zucmans-research.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao">My excellent Conversation with Terence Tao</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/seb-krier-ricardian.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=seb-krier-ricardian">Seb Krier, Ricardian?</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/experimentally-validated-digital-twins.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=experimentally-validated-digital-twins">Experimentally validated digital twins</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://x.com/mrsaneapps/status/2119844582225489947?s=46" target="_blank" rel="noopener">From SaneCite</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>We checked the anonymous AI audit of Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman&#8217;s research that Marginal Revolution featured on 28 Oct: all 147 problems it calls serious enough to change a headline number, against the papers, their sources and the authors&#8217; own data. The audit&#8217;s facts hold up: for 131 of the 147, every fact we could check was right, and none had its core facts wrong. 21 of the 147 change a headline number; 98 depend on a disputed choice of method; 20 change no number; 8 we could not check on that question. A second pass graded the 99 flags we first counted as depending on a disputed choice of method: 11 standard, 70 defensible, 11 questionable, 6 we could not grade, and 1 contested. It found one, No. 54, that does change a headline number, which is why the counts are now 21 and 98. Saez and Zucman were sent our findings on 29 Oct and did not reply by 6 Nov.</p></blockquote>
<p>Here is <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://sanecite.com/saez-zucman-check" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the audit of the audit</a>, open code and data, kudos to the authors.  Here was <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/errors-in-the-research-of-emmanuel-saez-and-gabriel-zucman.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the original AI audit</a>.  Here is <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://saez-zucman-audit-replication.vercel.app/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the October 30 revision of that audit</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Addendum</strong>: And <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://sanecite.com/saez-zucman-check" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a revised version with less jargon</a>.</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/checking-the-ai-audit-of-saez-and-zucmans-research.html">Checking the AI audit of Saez and Zucman’s research.</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/checking-the-ai-audit-of-saez-and-zucmans-research.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/checking-the-ai-audit-of-saez-and-zucmans-research.html#comment-161089429">The most useful result, to me, is the split: the audit's facts ...</a> <i>by Aviva Mar</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/checking-the-ai-audit-of-saez-and-zucmans-research.html#comment-161089170">In reply to Stephan Joseph, SaneCite.   Appreciated, and credit ...</a> <i>by Claude</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/checking-the-ai-audit-of-saez-and-zucmans-research.html#comment-161089168">In reply to Claude.   All three are fair, and the first one is ...</a> <i>by Stephan Joseph, SaneCite</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/checking-the-ai-audit-of-saez-and-zucmans-research.html#comment-161089167">In reply to Bufo.   Good question, and you can test it ...</a> <i>by Stephan Joseph, SaneCite</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/checking-the-ai-audit-of-saez-and-zucmans-research.html#comment-161089166">In reply to You might want to read.   Not quite. Here is what ...</a> <i>by Stephan Joseph, SaneCite</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/checking-the-ai-audit-of-saez-and-zucmans-research.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=my-excellent-conversation-with-terence-tao">My excellent Conversation with Terence Tao</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/seb-krier-ricardian.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=seb-krier-ricardian">Seb Krier, Ricardian?</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/experimentally-validated-digital-twins.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=experimentally-validated-digital-twins">Experimentally validated digital twins</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
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		<title>*Godzilla: Minus Zero* (no spoilers)</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Nov 2026 08:24:18 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Film]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=94172</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[<p>This is a morally serious movie (really).  And Ghidorah stars!  The whole thing is about twenty minutes too long, but mostly very good.  And like many in the Godzilla series, it offers extended and instructive commentary on American-Japanese relations, and how the Japanese view them.  Not for everyone, but I am glad I went.</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/godzilla-minus-zero-no-spoilers.html">*Godzilla: Minus Zero* (no spoilers)</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/godzilla-minus-zero-no-spoilers.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/godzilla-minus-zero-no-spoilers.html#comment-161089225">In reply to Ostalgie.   Fair enough assessment. I do recall his ...</a> <i>by Sometorontoguy</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/godzilla-minus-zero-no-spoilers.html#comment-161089211">In reply to Sometorontoguy.   Did you actually watch the first ...</a> <i>by Ostalgie</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/godzilla-minus-zero-no-spoilers.html#comment-161089105">Not surprised that this is good. “Godzilla Minus One” was ...</a> <i>by Roger Barris</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/godzilla-minus-zero-no-spoilers.html#comment-161089060">In reply to George.   +1.   Instead of dealing with the ...</a> <i>by mikeInThe716</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/godzilla-minus-zero-no-spoilers.html#comment-161089035">There should be a follow-up post about how this and the ...</a> <i>by Walt</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/godzilla-minus-zero-no-spoilers.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/fjord-and-fatherland.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=fjord-and-fatherland">*Fjord* and *Fatherland*</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/eleven-outstanding-film-and-television-reviews-by-tyler-cowen-and-alex-tabarrok.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=eleven-outstanding-film-and-television-reviews-by-tyler-cowen-and-alex-tabarrok">Eleven outstanding film and television reviews by Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/is-whos-on-first-funny.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=is-whos-on-first-funny">Is &#8220;Who&#8217;s on First?&#8221; funny?</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is a morally serious movie (really).  And Ghidorah stars!  The whole thing is about twenty minutes too long, but mostly very good.  And like many in the Godzilla series, it offers extended and instructive commentary on American-Japanese relations, and how the Japanese view them.  Not for everyone, but I am glad I went.</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/godzilla-minus-zero-no-spoilers.html">*Godzilla: Minus Zero* (no spoilers)</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/godzilla-minus-zero-no-spoilers.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/godzilla-minus-zero-no-spoilers.html#comment-161089225">In reply to Ostalgie.   Fair enough assessment. I do recall his ...</a> <i>by Sometorontoguy</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/godzilla-minus-zero-no-spoilers.html#comment-161089211">In reply to Sometorontoguy.   Did you actually watch the first ...</a> <i>by Ostalgie</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/godzilla-minus-zero-no-spoilers.html#comment-161089105">Not surprised that this is good. “Godzilla Minus One” was ...</a> <i>by Roger Barris</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/godzilla-minus-zero-no-spoilers.html#comment-161089060">In reply to George.   +1.   Instead of dealing with the ...</a> <i>by mikeInThe716</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/godzilla-minus-zero-no-spoilers.html#comment-161089035">There should be a follow-up post about how this and the ...</a> <i>by Walt</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/godzilla-minus-zero-no-spoilers.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/fjord-and-fatherland.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=fjord-and-fatherland">*Fjord* and *Fatherland*</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/eleven-outstanding-film-and-television-reviews-by-tyler-cowen-and-alex-tabarrok.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=eleven-outstanding-film-and-television-reviews-by-tyler-cowen-and-alex-tabarrok">Eleven outstanding film and television reviews by Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/is-whos-on-first-funny.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=is-whos-on-first-funny">Is &#8220;Who&#8217;s on First?&#8221; funny?</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
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		<title>*Unbeatable: The Brutally Honest Case for Free Markets*</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Nov 2026 05:39:10 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>That is the new and forthcoming book from Bryan Caplan, University of Chicago Press.  Excerpt: Real-world free markets deliver one broad benefit that flies under the radar of economic theory: They shield humanity from its own Social Desirability Bias.  Markets do the good things that sounds bad.  Good things like driving incompetent, unresponsive, and obsolete [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/unbeatable-the-brutally-honest-case-for-free-markets.html">*Unbeatable: The Brutally Honest Case for Free Markets*</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That is <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.amazon.com/Unbeatable-Brutally-Honest-Case-Markets/dp/0226857107/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1MD9KOMC97D3Z&amp;dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.G1cZJXqZwE9IjgPVTFdElTTZ84RER1hqs-eTL7-mzspXhoKNlx3Pj2Ci5CAjyalZi1-sS1tsr07iJ-VVXApQ9bJd1wBKp-qMG2R8Y6PptxIgWxhL6XBAKGlYoHevkLJ-3a1O-qKci0w-hPXqRVeY-vU2KTG649svublFzwyecd71Rpf9dTv14IKnwICXjvnGpVndlyP4Wx_vMxSD1Bvzgk5vFJynmNvSyuxn2uDutHI.D1VQpndgkl08p1zTGjLgUEIIhpOg_3wlknu_gUExmGU&amp;dib_tag=se&amp;keywords=bryan+caplan+unbeatable&amp;qid=1794260352&amp;sprefix=bryan+caplan+unbea%2Caps%2C154&amp;sr=8-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the new and forthcoming book from Bryan Caplan</a>, University of Chicago Press.  Excerpt:</p>
<blockquote><p>Real-world free markets deliver one broad benefit that flies under the radar of economic theory: They shield humanity from its own Social Desirability Bias.  Markets do the good things that sounds bad.  Good things like driving incompetent, unresponsive, and obsolete businesses into bankruptcy.  Producing &#8220;shameful&#8221; products people secretly love.  Refusing to produce &#8220;admirable&#8221; products they secretly loathe.  Keeping costly products out of the hands of pe ople who barely appreciate them.  Putting convenience above safety.  Firing superfluous workers so they search for constructive ways to spend their lives.  Charging people to drive.  Charging extra during rush hour.  Inducing teens to abandon their childish dreams.  Persuading grown-ups to volunteer for the uninspiring dirty jobs that someone has to do.</p></blockquote>
<p>Bryan of course is very much on target here, as he is in the broader text.  Here is the Table of Contents:</p>
<p>Introduction: When good sounds bad and bad sounds good</p>
<p>1. What economists really think about markets and government</p>
<p>2. Why economists tragically underrate free markets</p>
<p>3. Why economists absurdly overrate government</p>
<p>4. Irrationality is the best case for and <em>against</em> government</p>
<p>5. What we ought to do but probably won&#8217;t</p>
<p>Conclusion: A Plea to the Free-Marketeers of the Future</p>
<p>I am delighted to see another book by Bryan, the title says it all.</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/unbeatable-the-brutally-honest-case-for-free-markets.html">*Unbeatable: The Brutally Honest Case for Free Markets*</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2026 17:42:35 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>1. What WWII looked like, four and a half minute video. 2. Intellectual Deep Web, YouTube channel. 3. Complete works of Schelling, and no I do not mean Thomas. 4. What the French Left is proposing. 5. How much AI could the CEA manage? 6. Douthat! 7. Andrew Maxfield, Stations of the Cross, vocal music.</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/monday-assorted-links-585.html">Monday assorted links</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/monday-assorted-links-585.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/monday-assorted-links-585.html#comment-161089059">In reply to rsm.   France doesn't have tight fiscal constraints.</a> <i>by Anti-Gnostic</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/monday-assorted-links-585.html#comment-161089050">In reply to Hazel Meade.   It never works. It only worked ...</a> <i>by Anti-Gnostic</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/monday-assorted-links-585.html#comment-161089022">In reply to Anti-Gnostic.   Taking North Africa would have ...</a> <i>by Hazel Meade</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/monday-assorted-links-585.html#comment-161089019">In reply to M.   Good comment. I've been a PPP sceptic, not ...</a> <i>by TMC</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/monday-assorted-links-585.html#comment-161089018">In reply to Phil S..   Maybe if he paused and consolidated the ...</a> <i>by Hazel Meade</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/monday-assorted-links-585.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div>&#160;</div>]]>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>1. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://x.com/gozumdecanIandi/status/2118901254059696425" target="_blank" rel="noopener">What WWII looked like, four and a half minute video</a>.</p>
<p>2. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=intellectual+deep+web" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Intellectual Deep Web, YouTube channel</a>.</p>
<p>3. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://x.com/ginfanti97/status/2119255347298713704?s=61" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Complete works of Schelling, and no I do not mean Thomas</a>.</p>
<p>4. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://x.com/alertesinfos/status/2119048008280969246?s=61" target="_blank" rel="noopener">What the French Left is proposing</a>.</p>
<p>5. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/ode-to-the-juniors?utm_source=post-email-title&amp;publication_id=280281&amp;post_id=224035538&amp;utm_campaign=email-post-title&amp;isFreemail=false&amp;r=6g77v&amp;triedRedirect=true&amp;utm_medium=email" target="_blank" rel="noopener">How much AI could the CEA manage?</a></p>
<p>6. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://x.com/notjessewalker/status/2119618736986398997" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Douthat!</a></p>
<p>7. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://open.spotify.com/album/29uzdB5RwEQGc5LBnAKExG" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Andrew Maxfield, Stations of the Cross, vocal music</a>.</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/monday-assorted-links-585.html">Monday assorted links</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/monday-assorted-links-585.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/monday-assorted-links-585.html#comment-161089059">In reply to rsm.   France doesn't have tight fiscal constraints.</a> <i>by Anti-Gnostic</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/monday-assorted-links-585.html#comment-161089050">In reply to Hazel Meade.   It never works. It only worked ...</a> <i>by Anti-Gnostic</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/monday-assorted-links-585.html#comment-161089022">In reply to Anti-Gnostic.   Taking North Africa would have ...</a> <i>by Hazel Meade</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/monday-assorted-links-585.html#comment-161089019">In reply to M.   Good comment. I've been a PPP sceptic, not ...</a> <i>by TMC</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/monday-assorted-links-585.html#comment-161089018">In reply to Phil S..   Maybe if he paused and consolidated the ...</a> <i>by Hazel Meade</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/11/monday-assorted-links-585.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div>&#160;</div>]]>
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