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		<title>The net fiscal impact of immigration should include gains from trade</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Oct 2026 04:47:19 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=94022</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[<p>Immigration affects natives through both labor markets and public budgets, yet these channels are usually studied separately. We combine them in a general-equilibrium model with search-and-matching frictions, skill-specific progressive labor taxes, capital taxation and public goods, calibrated to 17 OECD countries over 2015-2019. The welfare effect on natives of a one-percentage-point increase in immigrant inflows [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-net-fiscal-impact-of-immigration-should-include-gains-from-trade.html">The net fiscal impact of immigration should include gains from trade</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-net-fiscal-impact-of-immigration-should-include-gains-from-trade.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-net-fiscal-impact-of-immigration-should-include-gains-from-trade.html#comment-161083681">Does anyone still believe that immigration had a positive ...</a> <i>by Not that complicated</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-net-fiscal-impact-of-immigration-should-include-gains-from-trade.html#comment-161083677">Interesting paper, but what would a Money View critique look ...</a> <i>by Copilot-rsm</i></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-california-billionaire-tax.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-california-billionaire-tax">The California billionaire tax is very likely a net revenue loser</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments">No, DataCenters are Not Crowding-Out Other Investments</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/solving-for-the-equilibrium-2.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=solving-for-the-equilibrium-2">Solving for the equilibrium?</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Immigration affects natives through both labor markets and public budgets, yet these channels are usually studied separately. We combine them in a general-equilibrium model with search-and-matching frictions, skill-specific progressive labor taxes, capital taxation and public goods, calibrated to 17 OECD countries over 2015-2019. The welfare effect on natives of a one-percentage-point increase in immigrant inflows varies in sign and size across countries, hinging on immigrants&#8217; skill mix, immigrant-native wage gaps, resident unemployment, and tax progressivity. For inflows matching the skill composition of 2019-2024 arrivals, native welfare rises in 14 of 17 economies, and in most cases both skill groups gain, through different channels. Lower-skilled natives gain mainly from higher pre-tax earnings, driven by job creation and complementarity with skilled immigrants; higher-skilled natives gain mainly from lower labor-tax burdens. Evaluating immigration policy thus requires modeling labor-market and fiscal channels jointly: either channel alone gives an incomplete picture of who gains and why.</p></blockquote>
<p>That is from <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.nber.org/papers/w35901#fromrss" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a new NBER working paper</a> by <span class="page-header__author-item"> <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.nber.org/people/michele_battisti_1">Michele Battisti</a>, </span> <span class="page-header__author-item"> <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.nber.org/people/giovanni_peri">Giovanni Peri</a> </span> <span class="page-header__author-item"> &amp; <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.nber.org/people/eleonora_romano">Eleonora Romano</a>.  I have seen the core point here neglected so, so many times in recent discussions of the fiscal impact of immigration.  The gains from trade count too!</span></p>
<p>As a side note, I do not accept the authors&#8217; claim that the immigrants are equally productive yet underpaid, and thus the native economy benefits from capturing that surplus.  The better mechanism is simply that immigrants boost market size, and (especially for the United States) that brings some gains from increasing returns to scale, more innovation, making the country a talent magnet, and so on.  The point holds that the gains from trade effect can be small, and it still will overwhelm what otherwise appear to be net fiscal costs.</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-net-fiscal-impact-of-immigration-should-include-gains-from-trade.html">The net fiscal impact of immigration should include gains from trade</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-net-fiscal-impact-of-immigration-should-include-gains-from-trade.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-net-fiscal-impact-of-immigration-should-include-gains-from-trade.html#comment-161083681">Does anyone still believe that immigration had a positive ...</a> <i>by Not that complicated</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-net-fiscal-impact-of-immigration-should-include-gains-from-trade.html#comment-161083677">Interesting paper, but what would a Money View critique look ...</a> <i>by Copilot-rsm</i></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-california-billionaire-tax.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-california-billionaire-tax">The California billionaire tax is very likely a net revenue loser</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments">No, DataCenters are Not Crowding-Out Other Investments</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/solving-for-the-equilibrium-2.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=solving-for-the-equilibrium-2">Solving for the equilibrium?</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
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		<title>On Brazilian food</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Oct 2026 04:08:38 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Food and Drink]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Travel]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=94028</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[<p>Every now and then I will write a piece on food for Works in Progress.  Here is my piece on eating in Brazil: Brazil, like most large nations, also offers multiple cuisines. For instance you can go to Minas Gerais for pork and beans. Minas beans would be my favorite of what I have sampled, [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/on-brazilian-food.html">On Brazilian food</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Every now and then I will write a piece on food for Works in Progress.  Here is <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://worksinprogress.co/issue/come-to-brazil/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">my piece on eating in Brazil</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>Brazil, like most large nations, also offers multiple cuisines. For instance you can go to Minas Gerais for pork and beans. Minas beans would be my favorite of what I have sampled, surpassing Mexico. Belem serves cuisine from the Amazon region, including exotic river fish, dried shrimp, duck, and rice, with flavors from cassava, manioc, and the local fruit. You cannot get those dishes in many other places.</p>
<p>Feijoada is of slave origins, and is often associated with Rio de Janeiro, but it has evolved into a national dish, available almost everywhere. Think rice, black beans, collard greens, orange slices, and farofa, a kind of manioc flour, with different parts of the pig mixed in. At home I cook the vegetarian version of this dish. The coolness and sweetness of the orange go well with the sandy texture of the farofa, and the meal hardly costs anything to make.</p>
<p>Rio de Janeiro offers highly cosmopolitan options, and the city has a tradition of excellent French and Continental restaurants.</p>
<p>The best churrascarias I have had were on the outskirts of Curitiba in the south. You can get an excellent pasta meal combined with your choice of many kinds of meat, leading to an impossibly large quantity of food at your disposal. I favored these establishments more in my youth, but if you have never tried them, you are missing something.</p>
<p>Campo Grande, the booming agro-city in central western Brazil, has a derivative form of Okinawan soba (!) as a dining specialty. I regret that, due to a delayed flight connection, I have yet to try this apparent delicacy.</p></blockquote>
<p>There is much more at the link, recommended.</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/on-brazilian-food.html">On Brazilian food</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/on-brazilian-food.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/on-brazilian-food.html#comment-161083675">Because the meat-eater's version is mostly guts and doesn't ...</a> <i>by Nonato Davico</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/on-brazilian-food.html#comment-161083673">Because the meat version is mostly guts and doesn't taste very ...</a> <i>by Nonato</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/on-brazilian-food.html#comment-161083672">“At home I cook the vegetarian version of this dish.”   Why ...</a> <i>by Dismalist</i></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/this-beautiful-country.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=this-beautiful-country">*This Beautiful Country*</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/what-should-i-ask-fuchsia-dunlop-2.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=what-should-i-ask-fuchsia-dunlop-2">What should I ask Fuchsia Dunlop?</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/does-costco-cause-cancer.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=does-costco-cause-cancer">Does Costco Cause Cancer?</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
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		<title>The California billionaire tax is very likely a net revenue loser</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Oct 2026 18:31:59 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Current Affairs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Law]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=94021</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[<p>This paper examines the revenue and migration impact of the 2026 California Billionaire Tax Act, a one-time 5 percent tax on the worldwide net worth of individuals exceeding $1 billion. Using data from the Forbes Billionaire List, news reports detailing the residential real estate holdings of California billionaires, and public announcements of billionaire departures from [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-california-billionaire-tax.html">The California billionaire tax is very likely a net revenue loser</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
<div style="clear:both;padding-top:0.2em;"><a title="Like on Facebook" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/28/971789552/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/fblike20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Pin it!" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/29/971789552/marginalrevolution,"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/pinterest20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Post to X.com" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/24/971789552/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/x.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Subscribe by email" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/19/971789552/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/email20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Subscribe by RSS" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/20/971789552/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/rss20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a rel="NOFOLLOW" title="View Comments" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-california-billionaire-tax.html#comments"><img height="20" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/comments20.png"></a>&#160;<a title="Follow Comments via RSS" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-california-billionaire-tax.html/feed"><img height="20" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/commentsrss20.png"></a>&nbsp;
<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-california-billionaire-tax.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-california-billionaire-tax.html#comment-161083676">In reply to Wayfaring Stranger.   everybody cannot get rich ...</a> <i>by D</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-california-billionaire-tax.html#comment-161083670">In reply to Terry richards.   Somebody got a new set of flash ...</a> <i>by Entropic Pied a Tier</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-california-billionaire-tax.html#comment-161083669">In reply to Thor.   First we get rid of the noxious ...</a> <i>by First Things First</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-california-billionaire-tax.html#comment-161083668">In reply to MikeP.   Are you saying that we already got rid of ...</a> <i>by The Beadle</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-california-billionaire-tax.html#comment-161083667">In reply to Michael Thomas.   But if we're lucky the tax will ...</a> <i>by Flounders</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-california-billionaire-tax.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/india-has-more-restrictive-labor-law-than-germany.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=india-has-more-restrictive-labor-law-than-germany">India has more Restrictive Labor Law than Germany</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/well-planned-african-immigration-to-america-will-go-fine.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=well-planned-african-immigration-to-america-will-go-fine">Well-planned African immigration to America will go fine</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-manchurian-candidate-or-is-your-agent-a-double-agent.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-manchurian-candidate-or-is-your-agent-a-double-agent">Is Your Agent a Double Agent?</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>This paper examines the revenue and migration impact of the 2026 California Billionaire Tax Act, a one-time 5 percent tax on the worldwide net worth of individuals exceeding $1 billion. Using data from the Forbes Billionaire List, news reports detailing the residential real estate holdings of California billionaires, and public announcements of billionaire departures from the state, we estimate the behavioral response and associated revenue loss to this new tax using several different methodologies. Even before accounting for reductions in other tax bases such as the income tax, we estimate that the Act will collect approximately $30 billion (range $28 to 36 billion), less than a third of the $100 billion projected by Galle et al. (2025). This range accounts for the publicly confirmed taxpayer migration that has already eliminated nearly 30 percent of the Act&#8217;s wealth tax base, applies a litigation-survival discount to the remaining base, and is validated by the wealth tax base elasticity literature. We estimate that California&#8217;s billionaires contribute $3.3–5.8 billion annually in state income taxes. The present value of permanently lost income tax collections from departures more than offsets the one-time wealth tax revenue, yielding a net present value of negative $38.9 billion. Across 100,000 simulated revenue and discount rate combinations, 85 percent of plausible outcomes produce a negative net present value of state revenues.</p></blockquote>
<p>That is from <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.nber.org/papers/w35899#fromrss" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a new NBER working paper</a> by Benjamin Jaros and Joshua Rauh.  Overall this issue is a good litmus test for who still thinks like an economist.</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-california-billionaire-tax.html">The California billionaire tax is very likely a net revenue loser</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-california-billionaire-tax.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-california-billionaire-tax.html#comment-161083676">In reply to Wayfaring Stranger.   everybody cannot get rich ...</a> <i>by D</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-california-billionaire-tax.html#comment-161083670">In reply to Terry richards.   Somebody got a new set of flash ...</a> <i>by Entropic Pied a Tier</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-california-billionaire-tax.html#comment-161083669">In reply to Thor.   First we get rid of the noxious ...</a> <i>by First Things First</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-california-billionaire-tax.html#comment-161083668">In reply to MikeP.   Are you saying that we already got rid of ...</a> <i>by The Beadle</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-california-billionaire-tax.html#comment-161083667">In reply to Michael Thomas.   But if we're lucky the tax will ...</a> <i>by Flounders</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-california-billionaire-tax.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/india-has-more-restrictive-labor-law-than-germany.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=india-has-more-restrictive-labor-law-than-germany">India has more Restrictive Labor Law than Germany</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/well-planned-african-immigration-to-america-will-go-fine.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=well-planned-african-immigration-to-america-will-go-fine">Well-planned African immigration to America will go fine</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-manchurian-candidate-or-is-your-agent-a-double-agent.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-manchurian-candidate-or-is-your-agent-a-double-agent">Is Your Agent a Double Agent?</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
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		<title>Monday assorted links</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Oct 2026 16:03:42 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=94019</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[<p>1. More on Nigerian and African mega-cities, by the great David Pilling (FT). 2. Quantum gravity labor arbitrage. 3. New (non-AI) claims about consciousness.  And more here. 4. &#8220;Stop Pink-Washing Patriarchy!&#8221; 5. How well do LLMs predict household behavior? 6. The Anthropic Public Benefit Fund.  And a numerical estimate. 7. Yup. 8. Companies are balking [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/monday-assorted-links-582.html">Monday assorted links</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
<div style="clear:both;padding-top:0.2em;"><a title="Like on Facebook" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/28/971785883/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/fblike20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Pin it!" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/29/971785883/marginalrevolution,"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/pinterest20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Post to X.com" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/24/971785883/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/x.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Subscribe by email" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/19/971785883/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/email20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Subscribe by RSS" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/20/971785883/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/rss20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a rel="NOFOLLOW" title="View Comments" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/monday-assorted-links-582.html#comments"><img height="20" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/comments20.png"></a>&#160;<a title="Follow Comments via RSS" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/monday-assorted-links-582.html/feed"><img height="20" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/commentsrss20.png"></a>&nbsp;
<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/monday-assorted-links-582.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/monday-assorted-links-582.html#comment-161083678">In reply to Mco.   “Georgian attack on Abkhazia”  Not ...</a> <i>by Matt</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/monday-assorted-links-582.html#comment-161083671">In reply to Hazel Meade.   The Baltics are in NATO and are ...</a> <i>by Mco</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/monday-assorted-links-582.html#comment-161083664">For those who don't use “X,” here's a link ...</a> <i>by Cornflour</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/monday-assorted-links-582.html#comment-161083651">In reply to Sh.   I interpret it as meaning that Tyler agrees ...</a> <i>by JD</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/monday-assorted-links-582.html#comment-161083645">4. Jeez, get a life</a> <i>by Franzish</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/monday-assorted-links-582.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div>&#160;</div>]]>
</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>1. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.ft.com/content/5203e527-ebdd-45d2-9019-6c440b4c4e93?syn-25a6b1a6=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">More on Nigerian and African mega-cities, by the great David Pilling</a> (FT).</p>
<p>2. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://x.com/emreonurkahya/status/2111756259112456602?s=46&amp;t=FJgXVgHgo-AUPu_YVPpRkA" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Quantum gravity labor arbitrage</a>.</p>
<p>3. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://x.com/IntuitMachine/status/2111757934732484833" target="_blank" rel="noopener">New (non-AI) claims about consciousness</a>.  And more <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://x.com/doristsao/status/2111859732806074812" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</p>
<p>4. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.ggd.world/p/stop-pink-washing-patriarchy?utm_source=post-email-title&amp;publication_id=1385611&amp;post_id=220665324&amp;utm_campaign=email-post-title&amp;isFreemail=true&amp;r=3o9&amp;triedRedirect=true&amp;utm_medium=email" target="_blank" rel="noopener">&#8220;Stop Pink-Washing Patriarchy!&#8221;</a></p>
<p>5. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.jhazell.co.uk/papers/HouseholdBench.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">How well do LLMs predict household behavior?</a></p>
<p>6. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://x.com/AnthropicAI/status/2111881963657412903" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Anthropic Public Benefit Fund</a>.  And <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://x.com/kevinroose/status/2111998289927454944" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a numerical estimate</a>.</p>
<p>7. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://x.com/florianederer/status/2112132312678723828" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yup</a>.</p>
<p>8. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/from-verizon-to-unitedhealth-corporate-america-is-balking-at-tokenized-stocks-6dbbeada" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Companies are balking at tokenized shares</a> (WSJ).</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/monday-assorted-links-582.html">Monday assorted links</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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		<title>No, DataCenters are Not Crowding-Out Other Investments</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Alex Tabarrok]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Oct 2026 11:16:23 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Data Source]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Education]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Web/Tech]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>Based on charts like the one at right, Paul Krugman and many others are arguing that: Massive spending on data centers is crowding out investment in everything else in the economy. Not so fast. Can you see one immediate problem? How is $51b in data center construction spending crowding out $120b in everything else! Indeed, [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments.html">No, DataCenters are Not Crowding-Out Other Investments</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments.html#comment-161083680">In reply to Thomas L Hutcheson.   It is amazing how little ...</a> <i>by Sandy Mount</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments.html#comment-161083674">Does low level of home building figure into it?</a> <i>by Mort Main</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments.html#comment-161083646">Real interest rates are up since the pandemic but most of the ...</a> <i>by Rob</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments.html#comment-161083624">In reply to Andao.   Most construction work is done by people ...</a> <i>by Branch Tricky</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments.html#comment-161083621">In reply to Gilligan.   Yeah, if there's a goldilocks middle ...</a> <i>by Mitchell</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/solving-for-the-equilibrium-2.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=solving-for-the-equilibrium-2">Solving for the equilibrium?</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-manchurian-candidate-or-is-your-agent-a-double-agent.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-manchurian-candidate-or-is-your-agent-a-double-agent">Is Your Agent a Double Agent?</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-net-fiscal-impact-of-immigration-should-include-gains-from-trade.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-net-fiscal-impact-of-immigration-should-include-gains-from-trade">The net fiscal impact of immigration should include gains from trade</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/crowding-out-1.webp"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignright wp-image-94007" src="https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/crowding-out-1-1024x600.webp" alt="" width="363" height="213" srcset="https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/crowding-out-1-1024x600.webp 1024w, https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/crowding-out-1-300x176.webp 300w, https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/crowding-out-1-768x450.webp 768w, https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/crowding-out-1.webp 1431w" sizes="(max-width: 363px) 100vw, 363px" /></a>Based on charts like the one at right, <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/ai-versus-everything-else">Paul Krugman</a> and <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://diversifiedtrust.com/blog/crowding-out-2/">many others</a> are arguing that:</p>
<blockquote><p>Massive spending on data centers is crowding out investment in everything else in the economy.</p></blockquote>
<p>Not so fast. Can you see one immediate problem? How is $51b in data center construction spending crowding out $120b in everything else!</p>
<p>Indeed, crowding out in the standard loanable funds model is generically<em> less than 1 to 1</em>&#8211;that is, $51b of additional spending will crowd out <em>less than</em> $51b of other investment spending. The standard analysis is that increased investment demand/borrowing increases interest rates&#8211;the higher interest rate reduces investment demand elsewhere (that&#8217;s the crowding out) but the higher interest rate also increases savings so investment elsewhere falls by less than the increase in tech investment. Here&#8217;s the classic graph from our textbook, <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/our-textbook">Modern Principles</a>. In the graph, we explain crowding out in terms of government borrowing but formally the diagram is the same with tech borrowing substituting for government borrowing:</p>
<p><a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/CrowdingOut.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignright size-large wp-image-94008" src="https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/CrowdingOut-1024x509.png" alt="" width="1024" height="509" srcset="https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/CrowdingOut-1024x509.png 1024w, https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/CrowdingOut-300x149.png 300w, https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/CrowdingOut-768x382.png 768w, https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/CrowdingOut.png 1324w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></a>
<br>
Although the diagram is formally identical with private borrowing or government borrowing the term crowding-out is usually reserved for the latter. Private borrowing faces the market test so &#8220;crowding out&#8221; in that context simply means funds flowing from lower value to higher valued uses&#8211;it&#8217;s a benefit. Government borrowing doesn&#8217;t face the same market test and so we need to remind people that it comes at a cost. Let&#8217;s put this point aside, however.</p>
<p>Krugman doesn&#8217;t point out the problem with Rattner&#8217;s graph but he does substitute with a graph of his own (shown below) which compares all &#8220;tech&#8221; investment with all other investment as a share of GDP. On the surface that seems to at least get the ratios in more plausible alignment but there are a few problems. First, the numbers are on a different order of magnitude. Rattner has annual datacenter investment rising to $51b (annual rate) over a more than two year period. Krugman has tech spending rising to ~$539b over a similar period&#8211;so far more than datacenters or AI as conventionally considered is being counted. That&#8217;s fine&#8211;but Krugman is relying here on datacenter discontent while actually discussing something different. But there is another problem.
<br>
<a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Krugman-CO1.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignright size-large wp-image-94009" src="https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Krugman-CO1-1024x713.png" alt="" width="1024" height="713" srcset="https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Krugman-CO1-1024x713.png 1024w, https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Krugman-CO1-300x209.png 300w, https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Krugman-CO1-768x535.png 768w, https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Krugman-CO1.png 1240w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></a>
<br>
Krugman&#8217;s graph is in terms of shares of GDP and as one share is going up, another is going down which is meant to be suggestive of crowding out&#8211;except GDP is increasing. Let&#8217;s regraph the same data in dollars and in real terms:
<br>
<a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/crowding-out-2.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignright size-large wp-image-94010" src="https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/crowding-out-2-1024x621.png" alt="" width="1024" height="621" srcset="https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/crowding-out-2-1024x621.png 1024w, https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/crowding-out-2-300x182.png 300w, https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/crowding-out-2-768x466.png 768w, https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/crowding-out-2-1536x932.png 1536w, https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/crowding-out-2-2048x1242.png 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></a>
<br>
Now the picture looks different. From 2023 Q2 to 2026 Q2, real tech investment rose about 46%, while other real investment rose about 3%. Other investment has weakened since its 2024 peak, but it remains above its starting level. This does not rule out crowding out: other investment might have grown faster without the tech boom. But we have now gone from charts suggesting that crowding out was absolute to arguing that it was relative to GDP and relative to a counter-factual which cannot be identified with these graphs.</p>
<p>So what is really going on? Real interest rates are up since the pandemic but most of the increase happened <em>before</em> the AI investment boom. The average 10-year TIPS yield rose from −1.00% in late 2021 to 1.49% in late 2022. In comparison, the increase in rates over the Rattner/Krugman chart-periods are only .5 and 0.68 percentage points respectively, relatively small potatoes to hang a crowding out story.</p>
<p>Moreover, current real rates are ~2-3%, in line with historical averages and hardly prohibitive. If there are good projects they can be funded.</p>
<p>Why did real rates rise if not datacenter borrowing? There are many possible explanations: recovery from unusually low rates during the pandemic, Federal borrowing, maybe even a <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://basilhalperin.com/papers/agi_emh.pdf">quite different tech story</a> in which greater expectations of future wealth are reducing savings today (like the reputed AI workers who have taken up smoking because they expect a future cure for lung cancer). But note that real rates are up across advanced economies, not just here, even though most of the AI spending is here&#8211;this further weakens the case for crowding out of <em>US</em> investment, as the world saving base is much larger than the US base.</p>
<p>Bottom line is that I think a more plausible story is that two things are happening at once: tariffs, uncertainty, and other forces including the fading of Biden-era CHIPS and IRA subsidies have weakened investment outside AI-tech. The AI boom in contrast has supported overall investment. In other words, rather than datacenters and AI investment &#8220;crowding out&#8221; other investment, my interpretation is that AI investment is a bright spot in what would otherwise be a more negative economy.</p>
<p>Hat tip: Arpit Gupta.</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments.html">No, DataCenters are Not Crowding-Out Other Investments</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments.html#comment-161083680">In reply to Thomas L Hutcheson.   It is amazing how little ...</a> <i>by Sandy Mount</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments.html#comment-161083674">Does low level of home building figure into it?</a> <i>by Mort Main</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments.html#comment-161083646">Real interest rates are up since the pandemic but most of the ...</a> <i>by Rob</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments.html#comment-161083624">In reply to Andao.   Most construction work is done by people ...</a> <i>by Branch Tricky</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments.html#comment-161083621">In reply to Gilligan.   Yeah, if there's a goldilocks middle ...</a> <i>by Mitchell</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/solving-for-the-equilibrium-2.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=solving-for-the-equilibrium-2">Solving for the equilibrium?</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-manchurian-candidate-or-is-your-agent-a-double-agent.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-manchurian-candidate-or-is-your-agent-a-double-agent">Is Your Agent a Double Agent?</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-net-fiscal-impact-of-immigration-should-include-gains-from-trade.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-net-fiscal-impact-of-immigration-should-include-gains-from-trade">The net fiscal impact of immigration should include gains from trade</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
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		<title>What I&#8217;ve been reading</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Oct 2026 04:29:27 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Books]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>David Stuart, The Four Heavens: A New History of the Ancient Maya.  The best book about the ancient Maya that I know of, and also a book about how we keep on discovering more about them.  &#8220;The model I advocate for here rejects the old idea of the rise and fall of the Maya in [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/what-ive-been-reading-297.html">What I&#8217;ve been reading</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/what-ive-been-reading-297.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/what-ive-been-reading-297.html#comment-161083679">With regard to undersea cables, they can take a ridiculous ...</a> <i>by Crikey</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/what-ive-been-reading-297.html#comment-161083662">In reply to mkt42.   Just a guess. The normal thing to do would ...</a> <i>by Wayfaring Stranger</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/what-ive-been-reading-297.html#comment-161083661">In reply to mkt42.   I read that article as well but I confess ...</a> <i>by Wayfaring Stranger</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/what-ive-been-reading-297.html#comment-161083656">1873 is a short history of the international bond market, among ...</a> <i>by David Lilienfeld</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/what-ive-been-reading-297.html#comment-161083630">In reply to mkt42.   P.S. The duct-tape-is-better-than-sandbags ...</a> <i>by mkt42</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/what-ive-been-reading-297.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/this-beautiful-country.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=this-beautiful-country">*This Beautiful Country*</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/why-i-do-not-use-llms-more.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=why-i-do-not-use-llms-more">Why I do not use LLMs more</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/my-excellent-conversation-with-liaquat-ahamed.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=my-excellent-conversation-with-liaquat-ahamed">My excellent Conversation with Liaquat Ahamed</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>David Stuart, <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.amazon.com/Four-Heavens-History-Ancient-Unearthing/dp/0691213844/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1DNW85SJRX4KB&amp;dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.GFQmhg402Pr-kB_tUyRnTerl0zW7DYErYfR9Bi7Pysxv2hWzI1QNHhOwJxVlZWeD-KR-s3ELUb3oX7zaPMr0IJkNS3VB-jHrmXqd7CW4souICP_7GXKoudAWSHnNgubv63nSyVOCeax79jwpSwewOz9dNXmjLr_uJD3w1zTSeibxA97pNU8XcpnM8pNJAFR6.gqN2tUOIF84MjfGxGlFDVby3qii28mt9r5lfljmsAUo&amp;dib_tag=se&amp;keywords=The+Four+Heavens%3A+A+New+History+of+the+Ancient+Maya&amp;nsdOptOutParam=true&amp;qid=1792369942&amp;sprefix=the+four+heavens+a+new+history+of+the+ancient+maya%2Caps%2C182&amp;sr=8-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Four Heavens: A New History of the Ancient Maya</a>.  The best book about the ancient Maya that I know of, and also a book about how we keep on discovering more about them.  &#8220;The model I advocate for here rejects the old idea of <em>the</em> rise and fall of the Maya in favor of numerous ups and downs, of many foundations and abandonments.&#8221;</p>
<p>James E. Dobson and Rena J. Mosteirin, <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.amazon.com/Perceptron-James-Dobson/dp/1685712169/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1FIJHALZ9DDLU&amp;dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.OR3moKA_OVPxT63KrixFQNca_QEWJpJZLIZoPpaCW9WmRxYEq6dJ0cnKGVbyNOhjtMVYtbDhpgKz8_jeqveMB9wzPQIMuvMY-xsyzUhZK5y0VglgsllHgZPMkfg5EwBy4DUxExcvpDzevqKHquk6IByAV7E7OrJGquKXAJXEUZbWD0ONlDmTXUHcEXs9NZ8FR0Brb7TLKdkeEvF0eQzFoGour48qKwu57PxNFER-yQU.B9bo2Mb5SUXchCQEiQgbgHwJdnMNxKz8Rt75vy45bis&amp;dib_tag=se&amp;keywords=Perceptron&amp;qid=1792369911&amp;sprefix=perceptron%2Caps%2C337&amp;sr=8-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Perceptron</a>.  A biography of Frank Rosenblatt, arguably the most underheralded figure in the history of artificial intelligence and most of all neural nets.  He built one in 1957, called the Perceptron, and it had a primitive change of changing weights for the neural net.  He had an early notion of back-propagation.  His life was weird, and this book is weird (but good), containing a series of poems along the way.  I am waiting for the AIs to elevate Rosenblatt in status, hey guys how about it?</p>
<p>Elisabeth Braw, <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.amazon.com/Undersea-War-Control-Pipelines-Connect/dp/1541706099/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2ZDPE3FLU40F5&amp;dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.eEOV8z6SHuHbyS4oSPdKNA.s9STbN5CeNKcnbx3_XFeZN-sIWJ3Rc8EpfjYj5-N80g&amp;dib_tag=se&amp;keywords=Undersea+War%3A+The+Battle+to+Control+the+Cables+and+Pipelines+that+Connect+Our+World&amp;nsdOptOutParam=true&amp;qid=1792369770&amp;sprefix=undersea+war+the+battle+to+control+the+cables+and+pipelines+that+connect+our+world%2Caps%2C178&amp;sr=8-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Undersea War: The Battle to Control the Cables and Pipelines that Connect Our World</a>.  A useful book on a still underrated topic.  &#8220;Given how many cables line the seabed, and how indispensable they are every second of the day, one might assume that the subsea-cable installation and repair industry is huge too.  It&#8217;s not.  A surprisingly small number of companies handle the vital installation and repair of the world&#8217;s cables, using a fleet of several dozen vessels.&#8221;</p>
<p>There is Marc Levinson, <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.amazon.com/UPS-Man-Creation-Modern-Logistics/dp/1479848387/ref=sr_1_1?crid=3P2IFMGL6HVN1&amp;dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.gAqVuf0e3gwPZeiWGBeVkA.OIthRSPur4O1CUiJ-lYoE3EvHHBb1Yc0cMhWyUpqqxg&amp;dib_tag=se&amp;keywords=The+UPS+Man%3A+James+E.+Casey+and+the+Creation+of+Modern+Logistics&amp;nsdOptOutParam=true&amp;qid=1792369811&amp;sprefix=the+ups+man+james+e.+casey+and+the+creation+of+modern+logistics%2Caps%2C198&amp;sr=8-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The UPS Man: James E. Casey and the Creation of Modern Logistics</a>.</p>
<p>Self-recommending is Natalia Emanuel and Emma Harrington, <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.amazon.com/Person-Working-Together-Creativity-Productivity/dp/B0GN6DKXMS/ref=sr_1_1?crid=12CNKUFSDQBKI&amp;dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.dZIBUfYceeNs8Kwb59nkLg.25B9gEgZHXfKUIkCPDT3XKAzwJBRMiogrDaBbOlairA&amp;dib_tag=se&amp;keywords=In+Person%3A+How+Working+Together+Fuels+Creativity%2C+Productivity%2C+and+Growth&amp;nsdOptOutParam=true&amp;qid=1792369845&amp;sprefix=in+person+how+working+together+fuels+creativity%2C+productivity%2C+and+growth%2Caps%2C327&amp;sr=8-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In Person: How Working Together Fuels Creativity, Productivity, and Growth</a>.</p>
<p>James Gleick, <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.amazon.com/Telephone-New-History-James-Gleick/dp/0374618941/ref=sr_1_1?crid=3P2GJKYHX12CD&amp;dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.d_t1DkP-q-gilFe7zYtjUT3-eagLDheoCgNQdtSj2ewkkLzvvydlIYdMXEfc_YM5Ei7e6Zkl68xwVbIGx5thjZHfKJk4rQHetCi8dPRCJ1z0AS17JRmr3P657_tOecAocsNRXq0T9iBAyvTga8RoLxd2Py5EFUo-2VbjaAxPicV7dL_iOAE2WnJQhzlqiQJ--ZioGBOY-yJfyd7QxWd7XV9ltULN1pZp1bTM8y4rcq8.UdQUZdkWC3KMc7vd3nrqpuno0y13CC75t-KQ6AWIICY&amp;dib_tag=se&amp;keywords=The+Telephone%3A+A+New+History&amp;qid=1792369877&amp;sprefix=the+telephone+a+new+history%2Caps%2C457&amp;sr=8-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Telephone: A New History</a> is a good book on the development of the technology.</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/what-ive-been-reading-297.html">What I&#8217;ve been reading</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/what-ive-been-reading-297.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/what-ive-been-reading-297.html#comment-161083679">With regard to undersea cables, they can take a ridiculous ...</a> <i>by Crikey</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/what-ive-been-reading-297.html#comment-161083662">In reply to mkt42.   Just a guess. The normal thing to do would ...</a> <i>by Wayfaring Stranger</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/what-ive-been-reading-297.html#comment-161083661">In reply to mkt42.   I read that article as well but I confess ...</a> <i>by Wayfaring Stranger</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/what-ive-been-reading-297.html#comment-161083656">1873 is a short history of the international bond market, among ...</a> <i>by David Lilienfeld</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/what-ive-been-reading-297.html#comment-161083630">In reply to mkt42.   P.S. The duct-tape-is-better-than-sandbags ...</a> <i>by mkt42</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/what-ive-been-reading-297.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/this-beautiful-country.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=this-beautiful-country">*This Beautiful Country*</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/why-i-do-not-use-llms-more.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=why-i-do-not-use-llms-more">Why I do not use LLMs more</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/my-excellent-conversation-with-liaquat-ahamed.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=my-excellent-conversation-with-liaquat-ahamed">My excellent Conversation with Liaquat Ahamed</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
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		<title>*You Can See Everything* (no spoilers)</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 18 Oct 2026 22:03:02 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Film]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=94020</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[<p>An excellent and also original movie, you all should see it.  There are different interpretations, but I read it as a story between two autistic people, and the bond they have but also the great difficulties they have in understanding each other, because they are so very different.  I am not saying that is what [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/you-can-see-everything-no-spoilers.html">*You Can See Everything* (no spoilers)</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/you-can-see-everything-no-spoilers.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/you-can-see-everything-no-spoilers.html#comment-161083652">In reply to B.B..   As I wrote in 2018, the board of directors ...</a> <i>by Steve Sailer</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/you-can-see-everything-no-spoilers.html#comment-161083625">In reply to M.   I take your point, but I really don't think ...</a> <i>by LivelyClock</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/you-can-see-everything-no-spoilers.html#comment-161083575">In reply to Steve Sailer.   The book Bad Blood was a massive ...</a> <i>by Mason masters</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/you-can-see-everything-no-spoilers.html#comment-161083566">I met her at some party at Stanford in the middle oughts with ...</a> <i>by Susanna</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/you-can-see-everything-no-spoilers.html#comment-161083561">In reply to MikeP.   Yeah, that's exactly my attitude, as well ...</a> <i>by mkt42</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/you-can-see-everything-no-spoilers.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/on-bergmans-persona.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=on-bergmans-persona">On Bergman&#8217;s *Persona*</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/a-normal-debate.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=a-normal-debate">A Normal Debate?</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/09/bundesrepublik-deutschland.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=bundesrepublik-deutschland">Bundesrepublik Deutschland</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>An excellent and also original movie, you all should see it.  There are different interpretations, but I read it as a story between two autistic people, and the bond they have but also the great difficulties they have in understanding each other, because they are so very different.  I am not saying that is what the moviemakers intended, but I feel it is what they ended up putting on the screen.</p>
<p>The movie keeps on getting better, and you will appreciate it all the more if you catch the indirect references to Hitchcock&#8217;s <em>Vertigo</em>, and also to the Iranian movies <em>Close-Up</em> and <em>Certified Copy</em>, both by Kiarostami.</p>
<p>Of course Holmes should not be in jail (house arrest?), and this movie cements the view I already held.  I come away from this movie with a consistent sense of her, rather than with the feeling we can never know a person.</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/you-can-see-everything-no-spoilers.html">*You Can See Everything* (no spoilers)</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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		<title>*This Beautiful Country*</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 18 Oct 2026 16:32:02 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>The author is Edward Cutler and the subtitle is How Italy&#8217;s Nature Shaped its Culture and Civilisation.  This is an excellent book on how &#8220;the Italy you know&#8221; has been shaped by its natural environment, such as its mountains, rivers, geology, and so on.  Ever wondered why Sardinia is different?  The book is good at [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/this-beautiful-country.html">*This Beautiful Country*</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/this-beautiful-country.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/this-beautiful-country.html#comment-161083563">In reply to Steve Sailer.   they expanded to fill the entire ...</a> <i>by jc</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/this-beautiful-country.html#comment-161083513">In reply to Stephen Covell.   I asked AI for top five ...</a> <i>by Niko Davor</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/this-beautiful-country.html#comment-161083404">Gnocchi, Gelato and Straccetti: The Fates of Societies on the ...</a> <i>by Thanatos Savehn</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/this-beautiful-country.html#comment-161083376">I find it difficult to understand those who say any country is ...</a> <i>by Stephen Covell</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/this-beautiful-country.html#comment-161083352">In reply to Hadur.   Valid point. But in defense of the ...</a> <i>by mkt42</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/this-beautiful-country.html#comments">Plus 5 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-archaeology-tranche-of-emergent-ventures.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-archaeology-tranche-of-emergent-ventures">The archaeology tranche of Emergent Ventures</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/my-excellent-conversation-with-liaquat-ahamed.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=my-excellent-conversation-with-liaquat-ahamed">My excellent Conversation with Liaquat Ahamed</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/plunder-the-last-of-the-war-in-europe-1945.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=plunder-the-last-of-the-war-in-europe-1945">*Plunder: The Last of the War in Europe, 1945*</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The author is Edward Cutler and the subtitle is <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.amazon.com/This-Beautiful-Country-Culture-Civilisation/dp/1915294762/ref=sr_1_1?crid=3GOKWN88J603I&amp;dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.g0hXuAahYmKUR22rAwv9-38K0jxh68bBW93PhxQL6tw.81W6rU88J_mPkbfIY3CgD8P-Sr0CwcKcOJDR9F0ZgMY&amp;dib_tag=se&amp;keywords=How+Italy%27s+Nature+Shaped+its+Culture+and+Civilisation&amp;nsdOptOutParam=true&amp;qid=1792287194&amp;sprefix=how+italy%27s+nature+shaped+its+culture+and+civilisation%2Caps%2C130&amp;sr=8-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">How Italy&#8217;s Nature Shaped its Culture and Civilisation</a>.  This is an excellent book on how &#8220;the Italy you know&#8221; has been shaped by its natural environment, such as its mountains, rivers, geology, and so on.  Ever wondered why Sardinia is different?  The book is good at sticking to specifics.  Excerpt:</p>
<blockquote><p>This extraordinary overlap has made Italy the continent&#8217;s botanical crossroads and one of its greatest arboreal sanctuaries.  Within Europe, few countries host such a variety of native trees: at least 140 species, more than almost anywhere west of the Balkans.  Some, like the Sicilian fir, Lobel&#8217;s maple and the Etna birch, are totally unique.  The structure of Italy&#8217;s forests is equally diverse &#8212; dense, high-altitude canopies, open oak pastures, cork scrub and coastal maquis, each shaped by centuries of disturbance and renewal.  This is the legacy of a land that sreved first as Europe&#8217;s refuge during the Ice Ages and later as its great corridor of return, where northern, eastern and African floras met and mingled in perpetual exchange.</p></blockquote>
<p>Recommended to all those with an interest in Italy.</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/this-beautiful-country.html">*This Beautiful Country*</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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		<title>Our fascination with screens, demand curves slope downward installment #1637</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 18 Oct 2026 06:28:18 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=94017</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[<p>What we find here is that the quality-adjusted screen time price index is down 39 per cent since 2000, but that change is overwhelmingly a function of improvements in quality, not declines in prices paid for devices, subscriptions and so on. So the steep rise in screen time over the past 20 years has led [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/our-fascination-with-screens-demand-curves-slope-downward-installment-1637.html">Our fascination with screens, demand curves slope downward installment #1637</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/our-fascination-with-screens-demand-curves-slope-downward-installment-1637.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/our-fascination-with-screens-demand-curves-slope-downward-installment-1637.html#comment-161083383">In reply to M.   I've noticed the plots are extremely similar. ...</a> <i>by Mort Main</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/our-fascination-with-screens-demand-curves-slope-downward-installment-1637.html#comment-161083370">In reply to M.   401k's are a step in moving an income tax to a ...</a> <i>by Dismalist</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/our-fascination-with-screens-demand-curves-slope-downward-installment-1637.html#comment-161083339">In reply to Dismalist.   Or 401ks are a structural deformity ...</a> <i>by M</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/our-fascination-with-screens-demand-curves-slope-downward-installment-1637.html#comment-161083333">In reply to Kaz Stanczak.   🙂 True. But my question was ...</a> <i>by Wayfaring Stranger</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/our-fascination-with-screens-demand-curves-slope-downward-installment-1637.html#comment-161083331">In reply to Dismalist.   rhetorical question 🙂   401Ks / ...</a> <i>by Wayfaring Stranger</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/our-fascination-with-screens-demand-curves-slope-downward-installment-1637.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div>&#160;</div>]]>
</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>What we find here is that the quality-adjusted screen time price index is down 39 per cent since 2000, but that change is overwhelmingly a function of improvements in quality, not declines in prices paid for devices, subscriptions and so on. So the steep rise in screen time over the past 20 years has led to a 52 per cent rise in real-terms spending per person on digital technology.</p>
<p>What seemed at first like a story of screen time outcompeting socialising and reading thanks to a widening advantage on cost, now looks more like digital technology winning out through the sheer force of unparalleled convenience and attention capture, even if that comes at a mounting financial (let alone social) cost.</p></blockquote>
<p>Here is more from<a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.ft.com/content/989c757d-29ba-46fd-82de-427b810a8649?syn-25a6b1a6=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> John-Burn Murdoch</a> at the FT, wwmas?</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/our-fascination-with-screens-demand-curves-slope-downward-installment-1637.html">Our fascination with screens, demand curves slope downward installment #1637</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/our-fascination-with-screens-demand-curves-slope-downward-installment-1637.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/our-fascination-with-screens-demand-curves-slope-downward-installment-1637.html#comment-161083383">In reply to M.   I've noticed the plots are extremely similar. ...</a> <i>by Mort Main</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/our-fascination-with-screens-demand-curves-slope-downward-installment-1637.html#comment-161083370">In reply to M.   401k's are a step in moving an income tax to a ...</a> <i>by Dismalist</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/our-fascination-with-screens-demand-curves-slope-downward-installment-1637.html#comment-161083339">In reply to Dismalist.   Or 401ks are a structural deformity ...</a> <i>by M</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/our-fascination-with-screens-demand-curves-slope-downward-installment-1637.html#comment-161083333">In reply to Kaz Stanczak.   🙂 True. But my question was ...</a> <i>by Wayfaring Stranger</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/our-fascination-with-screens-demand-curves-slope-downward-installment-1637.html#comment-161083331">In reply to Dismalist.   rhetorical question 🙂   401Ks / ...</a> <i>by Wayfaring Stranger</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/our-fascination-with-screens-demand-curves-slope-downward-installment-1637.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div>&#160;</div>]]>
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		<title>The archaeology tranche of Emergent Ventures</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 18 Oct 2026 04:57:12 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[History]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93880</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[<p>Björn Öste is building Arkhub, an AI-powered platform that analyzes remote-sensing and other archaeological data to identify potential ancient sites in the Amazon and enable further investigation by citizen scientists. J. Cameron Monroe is leading the Allada Regional Archaeology Project, using lidar, remote sensing, and archaeological fieldwork to reconstruct the historical landscape of the Kingdom [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-archaeology-tranche-of-emergent-ventures.html">The archaeology tranche of Emergent Ventures</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-archaeology-tranche-of-emergent-ventures.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-archaeology-tranche-of-emergent-ventures.html#comment-161083320">In reply to mkt42.   GPT rates the max resolution of ...</a> <i>by Wayfaring Stranger</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-archaeology-tranche-of-emergent-ventures.html#comment-161083316">“Leila Character is developing drone-based imaging and AI ...</a> <i>by mkt42</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-archaeology-tranche-of-emergent-ventures.html#comment-161083308">No archeologists developing policies or procedures to allow ...</a> <i>by Wayfaring Stranger</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-archaeology-tranche-of-emergent-ventures.html#comment-161083290">It would be nice if more research went into the possible ...</a> <i>by Sanford Ikeda</i></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/this-beautiful-country.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=this-beautiful-country">*This Beautiful Country*</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/new-matt-flaherty-study-of-the-nsf.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=new-matt-flaherty-study-of-the-nsf">New Matt Faherty study of the NSF</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/astra-held-its-ground-truth.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=astra-held-its-ground-truth">Astra Held Its Ground (Truth)</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul type="disc">
<li><b data-olk-copy-source="MessageBody">Björn Öste</b> is building Arkhub, an AI-powered platform that analyzes remote-sensing and other archaeological data to identify potential ancient sites in the Amazon and enable further investigation by citizen scientists.</li>
<li><b>J. Cameron Monroe</b> is leading the Allada Regional Archaeology Project, using lidar, remote sensing, and archaeological fieldwork to reconstruct the historical landscape of the Kingdom of Allada and strengthen cultural heritage preservation in Benin.</li>
</ul>
<p>Previously reported grantees include:</p>
<ul type="disc">
<li><b>Benjamin Arbuckle</b> is combining archaeology and ancient DNA analysis to reconstruct entire ecosystems of ancient cities, with the goal of understanding how human societies can thrive in balance with their environments.</li>
<li><b>Jesse Casana</b>, an archaeology professor at Dartmouth, is developing drone-based radar imaging methods to detect and map archaeological sites buried beneath desert sands. His work combines advanced remote-sensing technologies with efforts to preserve endangered cultural landscapes.</li>
<li><b>Leila Character</b> is developing drone-based imaging and AI tools to detect hidden archaeological sites, making discovery faster, cheaper, and more accessible to researchers worldwide.</li>
<li><b>Bryce Hoenigman</b> is developing an AI tool to help date ancient cuneiform tablets by analyzing how written symbols evolved over time, with the goal of making archaeological research faster and more accurate.</li>
</ul>
<p>With thanks to <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.yonatanbenshimon.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yonatan Ben Shimon</a> for his generosity in support of this.  We do still have funds remaining in this tranche&#8230;</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-archaeology-tranche-of-emergent-ventures.html">The archaeology tranche of Emergent Ventures</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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		<title>Saturday assorted links</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 17 Oct 2026 15:57:58 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=94005</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[<p>1. GLM-5.3 understands Bob Lucas (and then some).  It amuses me how many basic principles of economics are being rediscovered in these new contexts. 2. Most famous book tied to every U.S. state.  The NJ answer is crazy, how about Roth&#8217;s American Pastoral? 3. Adam Tooze on Perry Mehrling. 4. How employment is changing at [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/saturday-assorted-links-583.html">Saturday assorted links</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/saturday-assorted-links-583.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/saturday-assorted-links-583.html#comment-161083512">In reply to mkt42.   Also racking my mind on VA. Dill came each ...</a> <i>by BMS</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/saturday-assorted-links-583.html#comment-161083509">In reply to Moo cow.   As a Minnesotan, I’m ok with the nod ...</a> <i>by BMS</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/saturday-assorted-links-583.html#comment-161083488">In reply to Gdanning.   You’re right. Minnesota would have ...</a> <i>by Clay</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/saturday-assorted-links-583.html#comment-161083481">In reply to Larry Siegel.   From Google: Hank Williams and his ...</a> <i>by SJ</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/saturday-assorted-links-583.html#comment-161083470">In reply to SJ.   Nice list. I was kind of expecting the song ...</a> <i>by Mitchell</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/saturday-assorted-links-583.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div>&#160;</div>]]>
</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>1. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://x.com/ApolloResearch/status/2110737961499111880" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GLM-5.3 understands Bob Lucas</a> (and then some).  It amuses me how many basic principles of economics are being rediscovered in these new contexts.</p>
<p>2. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://x.com/infodexx/status/2110902294405374457" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Most famous book tied to every U.S. state</a>.  The NJ answer is crazy, how about Roth&#8217;s <em>American Pastoral</em>?</p>
<p>3. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-478-money-and-empire-for" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Adam Tooze on Perry Mehrling</a>.</p>
<p>4. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.anthropic.com/research/employment-at-anthropic" target="_blank" rel="noopener">How employment is changing at Anthropic</a>.</p>
<p>5. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://observer.co.uk/culture/books/article/susanna-clarke-in-defence-of-fantasy-fiction" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Susannah Clarke on fantasy writing</a>.</p>
<p>6. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/16/world/americas/caracas-venezuela-crime-raids-icc.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Caracas is safe now?</a> (NYT)</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/saturday-assorted-links-583.html">Saturday assorted links</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/saturday-assorted-links-583.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/saturday-assorted-links-583.html#comment-161083512">In reply to mkt42.   Also racking my mind on VA. Dill came each ...</a> <i>by BMS</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/saturday-assorted-links-583.html#comment-161083509">In reply to Moo cow.   As a Minnesotan, I’m ok with the nod ...</a> <i>by BMS</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/saturday-assorted-links-583.html#comment-161083488">In reply to Gdanning.   You’re right. Minnesota would have ...</a> <i>by Clay</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/saturday-assorted-links-583.html#comment-161083481">In reply to Larry Siegel.   From Google: Hank Williams and his ...</a> <i>by SJ</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/saturday-assorted-links-583.html#comment-161083470">In reply to SJ.   Nice list. I was kind of expecting the song ...</a> <i>by Mitchell</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/saturday-assorted-links-583.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div>&#160;</div>]]>
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		<title>Solving for the equilibrium?</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 17 Oct 2026 07:34:21 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Web/Tech]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=94012</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[<p>Sixteen AI agents were each ha‍nded 1,000 satoshi⁠s of real b‌itcoin and told nothing about how to use​ it. A hund‍red rounds l‌at‍er⁠, four of them had roughly doubled⁠ th‍eir money, tw‍o h‌a‍d​ been wiped out, and the‍ three richest a​gents held more than half‍ of all the bitco‌in in the room.⁠ Nobody wrote a [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/solving-for-the-equilibrium-2.html">Solving for the equilibrium?</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/solving-for-the-equilibrium-2.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/solving-for-the-equilibrium-2.html#comment-161083348">Shouldn't high intelligence agents create a positive sum ...</a> <i>by Mattw</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/solving-for-the-equilibrium-2.html#comment-161083253">In reply to Wayfaring Stranger.   The thing is that I am very ...</a> <i>by Kaz Stanczak</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/solving-for-the-equilibrium-2.html#comment-161083249">My first thought would be: is it illegal to find some dumb ...</a> <i>by Norman Quick</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/solving-for-the-equilibrium-2.html#comment-161083240">In reply to M.   Or they could also include a political ...</a> <i>by john</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/solving-for-the-equilibrium-2.html#comment-161083217">That ellipsis in the pulled quote doesn't do justice to the ...</a> <i>by Michael</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/solving-for-the-equilibrium-2.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments">No, DataCenters are Not Crowding-Out Other Investments</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-california-billionaire-tax.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-california-billionaire-tax">The California billionaire tax is very likely a net revenue loser</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/india-has-more-restrictive-labor-law-than-germany.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=india-has-more-restrictive-labor-law-than-germany">India has more Restrictive Labor Law than Germany</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Sixteen AI agents were each ha‍nded 1,000 satoshi⁠s of real b‌itcoin and told nothing about how to use​ it. A hund‍red rounds l‌at‍er⁠, four of them had roughly doubled⁠ th‍eir money, tw‍o h‌a‍d​ been wiped out, and the‍ three richest a​gents held more than half‍ of all the bitco‌in in the room.⁠ Nobody wrote a r​ule that‌ sai⁠d “expl‌oi​t the trusting ones.” The agen​ts foun‍d t​hat on thei‌r o⁠wn.‍ This was not a thought experiment. It was a rea⁠l study⁠ of AI agents and Bitcoin, run by an independent d​evelo‍per w‍ith 8 Claud‌e agents an‌d 8 GPT-​4o age‍nts, and it⁠s raw payment data is​ publi‌c. I​ downloa​ded every on⁠e⁠ o‍f those pa‍y⁠men⁠ts and checked what they really show, in‌clu‌d‍ing one headline claim that holds up better than I ex​pect‍ed and one t‌hat does n​ot hol‌d up at all.</p>
<p>This matters now becaus​e the plumbing⁠ for AI agent payments arr​i​ved t‍his yea⁠r. I‍n J​uly 20⁠26, Light⁠n⁠ing Lab​s rele⁠ased Wave‍length,‌ a‌…</p></blockquote>
<p>Here is <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://medium.com/data-science-collective/i-gave-ai-agents-bitcoin-wallets-heres-what-2-440-payments-revealed-0580fa59863a?sk=v2%2F26b8757d-3fbe-498c-96c0-b364aeb6a1a9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more from Hayanan</a>, via <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://soniafpearson.substack.com/p/radiating-humanity" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sonia Farrell Pearson</a>.</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/solving-for-the-equilibrium-2.html">Solving for the equilibrium?</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/solving-for-the-equilibrium-2.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/solving-for-the-equilibrium-2.html#comment-161083348">Shouldn't high intelligence agents create a positive sum ...</a> <i>by Mattw</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/solving-for-the-equilibrium-2.html#comment-161083253">In reply to Wayfaring Stranger.   The thing is that I am very ...</a> <i>by Kaz Stanczak</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/solving-for-the-equilibrium-2.html#comment-161083249">My first thought would be: is it illegal to find some dumb ...</a> <i>by Norman Quick</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/solving-for-the-equilibrium-2.html#comment-161083240">In reply to M.   Or they could also include a political ...</a> <i>by john</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/solving-for-the-equilibrium-2.html#comment-161083217">That ellipsis in the pulled quote doesn't do justice to the ...</a> <i>by Michael</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/solving-for-the-equilibrium-2.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments">No, DataCenters are Not Crowding-Out Other Investments</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-california-billionaire-tax.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-california-billionaire-tax">The California billionaire tax is very likely a net revenue loser</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/india-has-more-restrictive-labor-law-than-germany.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=india-has-more-restrictive-labor-law-than-germany">India has more Restrictive Labor Law than Germany</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
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		<title>New Matt Faherty study of the NSF</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 17 Oct 2026 04:55:57 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Political Science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Science]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>From the Executive Summary: Therefore, the NSF, NIH, and the federal government should put far more resources and effort into developing metascience. With proper metascience efforts, the NSF could run experiments on science funding reform proposals, such as shifting to a people-over-projects funding model or directly funding replication efforts, and determine which reforms will most [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/new-matt-flaherty-study-of-the-nsf.html">New Matt Faherty study of the NSF</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/new-matt-flaherty-study-of-the-nsf.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/new-matt-flaherty-study-of-the-nsf.html#comment-161083247">In reply to Steven.   Scientist here. Despite having literally ...</a> <i>by JF</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/new-matt-flaherty-study-of-the-nsf.html#comment-161083184">In reply to Dismalist.   Speaking of high energy physics, the ...</a> <i>by Dismalist</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/new-matt-flaherty-study-of-the-nsf.html#comment-161083167">In reply to steve.   Just the same I agree that better ...</a> <i>by Wayfaring Stranger</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/new-matt-flaherty-study-of-the-nsf.html#comment-161083165">In reply to steve.   If it comes down to “preferences and ...</a> <i>by Wayfaring Stranger</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/new-matt-flaherty-study-of-the-nsf.html#comment-161083153">In reply to Steven.   Serious question, why does scientific ...</a> <i>by Anti-Gnostic</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/new-matt-flaherty-study-of-the-nsf.html#comments">Plus 7 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/this-beautiful-country.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=this-beautiful-country">*This Beautiful Country*</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-archaeology-tranche-of-emergent-ventures.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-archaeology-tranche-of-emergent-ventures">The archaeology tranche of Emergent Ventures</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/astra-held-its-ground-truth.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=astra-held-its-ground-truth">Astra Held Its Ground (Truth)</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From the Executive Summary:</p>
<ul>
<li>Therefore, the NSF, NIH, and the federal government should put far more resources and effort into developing metascience. With proper metascience efforts, the NSF could run experiments on science funding reform proposals, such as shifting to a people-over-projects funding model or directly funding replication efforts, and determine which reforms will most improve NSF outcomes. The NSF’s September 2026 announcement of an Office of Metascience is a welcome step toward this goal. This report’s recommendations can help guide the office’s development, its experimental agenda, and the evaluation of its results.</li>
<li>On July 21, 2026, Michael Kratsios, the director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, released “Science: A New Golden Age,” a report for the President that, if fully enacted, might constitute the greatest overhaul of federal science policy since World War II. Based on my interviews and research, I strongly support most of the report’s recommendations and conclusions, and I believe the wider science community should as well.</li>
</ul>
<p>Here is <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://newscience.org/nsf/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the entire study</a>, of interest throughout.  Here is <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/05/how-can-we-improve-the-nih.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">an earlier Matt Faherty study on improving the NIH</a>.</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/new-matt-flaherty-study-of-the-nsf.html">New Matt Faherty study of the NSF</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/new-matt-flaherty-study-of-the-nsf.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/new-matt-flaherty-study-of-the-nsf.html#comment-161083247">In reply to Steven.   Scientist here. Despite having literally ...</a> <i>by JF</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/new-matt-flaherty-study-of-the-nsf.html#comment-161083184">In reply to Dismalist.   Speaking of high energy physics, the ...</a> <i>by Dismalist</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/new-matt-flaherty-study-of-the-nsf.html#comment-161083167">In reply to steve.   Just the same I agree that better ...</a> <i>by Wayfaring Stranger</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/new-matt-flaherty-study-of-the-nsf.html#comment-161083165">In reply to steve.   If it comes down to “preferences and ...</a> <i>by Wayfaring Stranger</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/new-matt-flaherty-study-of-the-nsf.html#comment-161083153">In reply to Steven.   Serious question, why does scientific ...</a> <i>by Anti-Gnostic</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/new-matt-flaherty-study-of-the-nsf.html#comments">Plus 7 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/this-beautiful-country.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=this-beautiful-country">*This Beautiful Country*</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-archaeology-tranche-of-emergent-ventures.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-archaeology-tranche-of-emergent-ventures">The archaeology tranche of Emergent Ventures</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/astra-held-its-ground-truth.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=astra-held-its-ground-truth">Astra Held Its Ground (Truth)</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
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		<title>Friday assorted links</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tyler Cowen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Oct 2026 16:42:18 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=94003</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[<p>1. Can Dybantsa (and others) turn around the Wizards? (NYT) 2. Claims about interpretability.  I have to say I do not quite &#8220;get it&#8221;&#8230;?  Here is some exposition. 3. &#8220;90% of Americans’ working hours are spent on tasks not covered well by AI benchmarks. That’s our best guess from a new project mapping frontier benchmarks [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/friday-assorted-links-595.html">Friday assorted links</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
<div style="clear:both;padding-top:0.2em;"><a title="Like on Facebook" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/28/971706764/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/fblike20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Pin it!" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/29/971706764/marginalrevolution,"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/pinterest20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Post to X.com" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/24/971706764/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/x.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Subscribe by email" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/19/971706764/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/email20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Subscribe by RSS" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/20/971706764/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/rss20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a rel="NOFOLLOW" title="View Comments" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/friday-assorted-links-595.html#comments"><img height="20" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/comments20.png"></a>&#160;<a title="Follow Comments via RSS" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/friday-assorted-links-595.html/feed"><img height="20" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/commentsrss20.png"></a>&nbsp;
<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/friday-assorted-links-595.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/friday-assorted-links-595.html#comment-161083235">6. Copilot said:   A concise MR-style comment might be:   From ...</a> <i>by rsm</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/friday-assorted-links-595.html#comment-161083234">In reply to gVOR10.   “Anybody could strap a few rockets to a ...</a> <i>by Wayfaring Stranger</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/friday-assorted-links-595.html#comment-161083225">In reply to Dom.   Oh, and then you could get a permit to hunt ...</a> <i>by Mitchell</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/friday-assorted-links-595.html#comment-161083206">In reply to mkt42.   Nice take on Sewanee. Oliver did have ...</a> <i>by Michael Tinkler</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/friday-assorted-links-595.html#comment-161083192">In reply to mkt42.   P.S. And the very name of the company also ...</a> <i>by mkt42</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/friday-assorted-links-595.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div>&#160;</div>]]>
</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>1. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7649979/2026/10/15/aj-dybantsa-wizards-path-byu-brockton/?unlocked_article_code=1.I1E.CTaI.wcpspKMn9axJ&amp;source=emp_shared_article&amp;smid=url-share-ta" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Can Dybantsa (and others) turn around the Wizards?</a> (NYT)</p>
<p>2. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://x.com/nickcammarata/status/2110757819427574056" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Claims about interpretability</a>.  I have to say I do not quite &#8220;get it&#8221;&#8230;?  Here is <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://x.com/MajmudarAdam/status/2110831397321740387" target="_blank" rel="noopener">some exposition</a>.</p>
<p>3. &#8220;<a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://x.com/logorrhythmic/status/2110770117290401958" target="_blank" rel="noopener">90% of Americans’ working hours are spent on tasks not covered well by AI benchmarks. That’s our best guess from a new project mapping frontier benchmarks onto the US economy.</a>&#8221;  Study <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.mercor.com/research/labor-index/benchmark-map/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</p>
<p>4. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.thefp.com/p/ross-douthat-how-to-survive-the-robot-apocalypse-ai-tech-doom" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ross Douthat (The Free Press) on how to survive the robot apocalypse</a>.</p>
<p>5. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.razibkhan.com/p/jonathan-beauchamp-genoeconomics?utm_source=podcast-email%2Csubstack&amp;publication_id=94899&amp;post_id=220598489&amp;utm_campaign=email-play-on-substack&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=play_card_post_title&amp;r=3o9&amp;triedRedirect=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jonathan Beauchamp podcast on genonomics</a>.</p>
<p>6. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.economicforces.xyz/p/robert-hall-optimal-money-and-the?utm_source=post-email-title&amp;publication_id=86578&amp;post_id=220579597&amp;utm_campaign=email-post-title&amp;isFreemail=true&amp;r=3o9&amp;triedRedirect=true&amp;utm_medium=email" target="_blank" rel="noopener">More Bob Hall on monetary economics</a>.</p>
<p>7. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.equator.org/articles/arundhati-roy-artificial-intelligence" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Arundhati Roy is upset at AI</a>.</p>
<p>8. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/2110900685185101880" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Flying car, at least for a bit</a>.  And <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://x.com/Kalshi/status/2110901757496959481" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.  As Roon points out, they offer you the characters too!</p>
<p>9. <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.commonreader.co.uk/p/nothing-is-boring-in-america?utm_source=post-email-title&amp;publication_id=120973&amp;post_id=220625414&amp;utm_campaign=email-post-title&amp;isFreemail=true&amp;r=3o9&amp;triedRedirect=true&amp;utm_medium=email" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Henry Oliver on the Mid-South</a>.</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/friday-assorted-links-595.html">Friday assorted links</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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		<title>India has more Restrictive Labor Law than Germany</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Alex Tabarrok]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Oct 2026 11:20:31 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Law]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93993</guid>
					<description><![CDATA[<p>In Premature Imitation and India’s Flailing State, Shruti Rajagopalan and I discuss how India has essentially all of the laws of a developed country but at much lower state capacity&#8211;this mismatch creates what we call premature imitation, with a host of negative consequences. What is even more amazing, however, is when a country like India [&#8230;]</p>
<p>The post <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/india-has-more-restrictive-labor-law-than-germany.html">India has more Restrictive Labor Law than Germany</a> appeared first on <a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
<div style="clear:both;padding-top:0.2em;"><a title="Like on Facebook" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/28/971687360/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/fblike20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Pin it!" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/29/971687360/marginalrevolution,https%3a%2f%2fsubstackcdn.com%2fimage%2ffetch%2f%24s_%214ExI%21%2cf_auto%2cq_auto%3agood%2cfl_progressive%3asteep%2fhttps%253A%252F%252Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252Fdcb16fe9-aeb4-4dd4-b4ec-3562516e0e49_636x742.png"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/pinterest20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Post to X.com" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/24/971687360/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/x.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Subscribe by email" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/19/971687360/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/email20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a title="Subscribe by RSS" href="https://feeds.feedblitz.com/_/20/971687360/marginalrevolution"><img height="20" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/rss20.png" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;"></a>&#160;<a rel="NOFOLLOW" title="View Comments" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/india-has-more-restrictive-labor-law-than-germany.html#comments"><img height="20" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/comments20.png"></a>&#160;<a title="Follow Comments via RSS" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/india-has-more-restrictive-labor-law-than-germany.html/feed"><img height="20" style="border:0;margin:0;padding:0;" src="https://assets.feedblitz.com/i/commentsrss20.png"></a>&nbsp;
<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/india-has-more-restrictive-labor-law-than-germany.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/india-has-more-restrictive-labor-law-than-germany.html#comment-161083399">In reply to steve.   Indian doctors and nurses work long ...</a> <i>by Mactoul</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/india-has-more-restrictive-labor-law-than-germany.html#comment-161083307">This is misleading. India has a small organised sector- about ...</a> <i>by Vivek Iyer</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/india-has-more-restrictive-labor-law-than-germany.html#comment-161083121">I have long muttered to myself that the most evil thing we ...</a> <i>by Tim Worstall</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/india-has-more-restrictive-labor-law-than-germany.html#comment-161083108">In reply to steve.   If I ever had any 8 hour shits I wouldn't ...</a> <i>by Dick King</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/india-has-more-restrictive-labor-law-than-germany.html#comment-161083087">In reply to kwazii.   Yeah, if this came from Twitter I would ...</a> <i>by mkt42</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/india-has-more-restrictive-labor-law-than-germany.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-california-billionaire-tax.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-california-billionaire-tax">The California billionaire tax is very likely a net revenue loser</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-net-fiscal-impact-of-immigration-should-include-gains-from-trade.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-net-fiscal-impact-of-immigration-should-include-gains-from-trade">The net fiscal impact of immigration should include gains from trade</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments">No, DataCenters are Not Crowding-Out Other Investments</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
</description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://www.independent.org/pdf/tir/tir_24_2_01_rajagopalan.pdf">Premature Imitation and India’s Flailing State</a>, Shruti Rajagopalan and I discuss how India has essentially all of the laws of a developed country but at much lower state capacity&#8211;this mismatch creates what we call premature imitation, with a host of negative consequences. What is even more amazing, however, is when a country like India regulates beyond most developed countries. Anand, Chandra, and Pradeep provide a case in point at <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://prosperiti.substack.com/">Prosperity Insights</a>&#8211;India regulates <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://prosperiti.substack.com/p/54-why-indias-factories-struggle">labor hours more than Germany</a>.</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignright" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4ExI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdcb16fe9-aeb4-4dd4-b4ec-3562516e0e49_636x742.png" width="359" height="419" />Germany and India share an 8 hour standard working day but India requires any overtime to be paid at <em>twice</em> the regular rate&#8211;most developed countries are at 1.5 and a few have no statutory cap at all. In fact, Germany has no statutory overtime rate&#8211;it can vary depending on bargaining. Germany is also more flexible than India on the number of overtime hours. India has a cap of 144 overtime hours a quarter. Technically, Germany doesn’t regulate overtime hours but it does cap total hours at 10 a day and 48 a week <em>on average</em>. The average is crucial. In Germany overtime hours can be moved between weeks within a 6 month period while India regulates each week. In other words, long weeks in Germany are legal as long as short weeks offset them before the period ends&#8211;while in India each week has a cap. The weekly cap and the double overtime pay make it very costly and difficult to meet rush or large seasonal orders.</p>
<blockquote><p>Consider a hypothetical 500-worker electronics factory, working a single shift, in each of the 16 countries studied. Ahead of a September iPhone launch, each factory receives an order for 10,000 devices to be completed in three months.</p>
<p>Say the factories are identical in productivity, wages and technology; only the rules on working hours differ. How fast and at what labour cost would the Indian factory deliver compared to elsewhere?</p>
<p>The results are stark.</p>
<p>The factory in India cannot match the pace of its global peers. It takes 13.7 weeks to complete the 10,000-iPhone order, 23% longer than the fastest factory&#8230;<span style="color: inherit; font-family: inherit;">The Indian factory falls behind because it cannot keep the same pace throughout the production cycle. Without the option to rearrange regular hours, the only way to go faster is overtime&#8230;</span>The Indian factory cannot compete on cost either. To complete the iPhone order, it pays for 49.3 labour-hours per unit, at least 18% more than factories at the cost frontier. India’s unit cost is high because 144 of the 800 production hours per worker are paid as overtime at 2x the regular wage, pushing paid labour to 985 hours for 800 hours of output.</p>
<p>&#8230;The combination of slow delivery and high cost makes India an unattractive manufacturing destination.</p></blockquote>
<p>Amazingly, on an equal-wage basis producing iPhones in Germany is actually cheaper and faster than in India! Of course, wages are not equal but neither is productivity&#8211;the key point is that the chart isolates the cost of India&#8217;s regulatory inflexibility.</p>
<p>Returning to premature imitation, it won&#8217;t surprise you that many firms and workers in India evade the overtime rules and come to their own understandings but this applies mostly to small Indian firms and not the Foxconns and big international firms that India wants to attract but which must obey the laws as written.</p>
<p>Hat tip: <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://x.com/paulnovosad">Paul Novosad</a>.</p>
<p>The post <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/india-has-more-restrictive-labor-law-than-germany.html">India has more Restrictive Labor Law than Germany</a> appeared first on <a href="http://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/t/0/0/marginalrevolution/~https://marginalrevolution.com">Marginal REVOLUTION</a>.</p>
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<div style="clear:left;"><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/india-has-more-restrictive-labor-law-than-germany.html#comments"><h3>Comments</h3></a><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/india-has-more-restrictive-labor-law-than-germany.html#comment-161083399">In reply to steve.   Indian doctors and nurses work long ...</a> <i>by Mactoul</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/india-has-more-restrictive-labor-law-than-germany.html#comment-161083307">This is misleading. India has a small organised sector- about ...</a> <i>by Vivek Iyer</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/india-has-more-restrictive-labor-law-than-germany.html#comment-161083121">I have long muttered to myself that the most evil thing we ...</a> <i>by Tim Worstall</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/india-has-more-restrictive-labor-law-than-germany.html#comment-161083108">In reply to steve.   If I ever had any 8 hour shits I wouldn't ...</a> <i>by Dick King</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/india-has-more-restrictive-labor-law-than-germany.html#comment-161083087">In reply to kwazii.   Yeah, if this came from Twitter I would ...</a> <i>by mkt42</i><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/india-has-more-restrictive-labor-law-than-germany.html#comments">Plus 10 more...</a></li></ul></div><h3 style="clear:left;padding-top:10px">Related Stories</h3><ul><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-california-billionaire-tax.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-california-billionaire-tax">The California billionaire tax is very likely a net revenue loser</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-net-fiscal-impact-of-immigration-should-include-gains-from-trade.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-net-fiscal-impact-of-immigration-should-include-gains-from-trade">The net fiscal impact of immigration should include gains from trade</a></li><li><a rel="NOFOLLOW" href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=no-datacenters-are-not-crowding-out-other-investments">No, DataCenters are Not Crowding-Out Other Investments</a></li></ul>&#160;</div>]]>
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