Marginal Revolution https://marginalrevolution.com/ Small Steps Toward A Much Better World Fri, 09 Oct 2026 16:24:04 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/cropped-MR-logo-thumbnail-32x32.png Marginal REVOLUTION https://marginalrevolution.com/ 32 32 42693868 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-origin-of-risk.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-origin-of-risk The origin of risk https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/971196824/0/marginalrevolution~The-origin-of-risk.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-origin-of-risk.html#respond Fri, 09 Oct 2026 18:20:57 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93957 From the QJE, by Alexandr Kopytov, Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel, and Zebang Xu: We propose a tractable model in which risk, at both the micro and macro levels, is endogenous and driven by incentives. In the model, each firm chooses the mean and the variance of its productivity process, as well as how it covaries with the productivity of other […]

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]]> From the QJE, by , , and :

We propose a tractable model in which risk, at both the micro and macro levels, is endogenous and driven by incentives. In the model, each firm chooses the mean and the variance of its productivity process, as well as how it covaries with the productivity of other firms. Aggregate risk arises when firms select productivity processes that are correlated with one another. The theory predicts that larger firms and those with lower markups are less volatile and less correlated with aggregate productivity. We find support for these predictions in the data. Through their impact on risk-taking decisions, distortions such as taxes and markups can make GDP more volatile in equilibrium. In a calibrated version of the model, removing distortions significantly reduces GDP volatility.

Fischer Black!  (And my own earlier book Risk and Business Cycles).  Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/the-origin-of-risk.html/feed 0 93957 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/ethiopia-update.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=ethiopia-update Ethiopia update https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/971194007/0/marginalrevolution~Ethiopia-update.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/ethiopia-update.html#comments Fri, 09 Oct 2026 16:24:04 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93958 Ethiopia is the center of the world right now as it has returned to war. Ethiopian forces retook Mekelle from rebel forces, but the fighting has extended beyond Tigray. Eritrean forces allegedly entered Tigray, and Ethiopia responded with drone attacks. The war could go a number of ways. The war extends beyond Ethiopia. Sara Al-Saeed […]

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Ethiopia is the center of the world right now as it has returned to war. Ethiopian forces retook Mekelle from rebel forces, but the fighting has extended beyond Tigray. Eritrean forces allegedly entered Tigray, and Ethiopia responded with drone attacks. The war could go a number of ways. The war extends beyond Ethiopia. Sara Al-Saeed explains how Egypt extended its rivalry with Ethiopia across the Horn of Africa. Relations with Eritrea have soured. Pay attention to the Assab Port. Learn more about Abiy, internal divisions, and the regional struggle. This post provides a helpful update. Follow the conflict with ACLED. One thing is clear: The war is a betrayal of Tigray.

From Jeffrey Paller.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/ethiopia-update.html/feed 2 93958 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/friday-assorted-links-594.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=friday-assorted-links-594 Friday assorted links https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/971193467/0/marginalrevolution~Friday-assorted-links.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/friday-assorted-links-594.html#comments Fri, 09 Oct 2026 16:06:02 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93951 1. Charles Kenny on foreign aid. 2. Rise and fall of the plasma screen. 3. France also has very high private debt. 4. Ross Douthat will do a weekly column for The Free Press.  And from Ross himself. 5. Encryption risk? 6. “The Altruists premieres November 19.” 7. Emily Wilson on various Canadian writers.

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]]> 1. Charles Kenny on foreign aid.

2. Rise and fall of the plasma screen.

3. France also has very high private debt.

4. Ross Douthat will do a weekly column for The Free Press.  And from Ross himself.

5. Encryption risk?

6. “The Altruists premieres November 19.”

7. Emily Wilson on various Canadian writers.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/friday-assorted-links-594.html/feed 22 93951 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/a-sentiment-analysis-of-cowen-hanson-caplan-and-krugman.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=a-sentiment-analysis-of-cowen-hanson-caplan-and-krugman A Sentiment Analysis of Cowen, Hanson, Caplan, and Krugman https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/971171273/0/marginalrevolution~A-Sentiment-Analysis-of-Cowen-Hanson-Caplan-and-Krugman.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/a-sentiment-analysis-of-cowen-hanson-caplan-and-krugman.html#comments Fri, 09 Oct 2026 06:26:35 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93952 Supplied by Bryan Caplan, performed by ChatGPT, excerpt: So Cowen isn’t well described as either “positive” or “negative.” A much better description is: High appreciation + high concern + very low emotional agitation. He seems to think there is an astonishing amount of wonderful stuff in the world and an astonishing number of things worth […]

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]]> Supplied by Bryan Caplan, performed by ChatGPT, excerpt:

So Cowen isn’t well described as either “positive” or “negative.” A much better description is:

High appreciation + high concern + very low emotional agitation.

He seems to think there is an astonishing amount of wonderful stuff in the world and an astonishing number of things worth worrying about.

That combination is unusual.

Insightful throughout.  And have a nice day!

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/a-sentiment-analysis-of-cowen-hanson-caplan-and-krugman.html/feed 42 93952 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/on-stubborn-attachments-and-religion-from-my-email.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=on-stubborn-attachments-and-religion-from-my-email On *Stubborn Attachments* and religion (from my email) https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/971169668/0/marginalrevolution~On-Stubborn-Attachments-and-religion-from-my-email.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/on-stubborn-attachments-and-religion-from-my-email.html#comments Fri, 09 Oct 2026 04:38:05 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93950 Hey Tyler I consider Stubborn Attachments your most dogmatic and religious book. Pondering on it, here are my Abrahamic readings of it: Jewish: Ten Commandments, obviously. While the bigger canon of Jewish laws tend to be overly conservative because people will fail following them anyway, the Ten Commandments are the laws the Jews should be […]

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Hey Tyler

I consider Stubborn Attachments your most dogmatic and religious book. Pondering on it, here are my Abrahamic readings of it:

Jewish: Ten Commandments, obviously. While the bigger canon of Jewish laws tend to be overly conservative because people will fail following them anyway, the Ten Commandments are the laws the Jews should be stubbornly attached to. It’s easy to to rewrite the two guidelines of Stubborn Attachments as “Thou shalt … “. Another fun Jewish phrasing of the book would be “That which is good for the economy, is good for you. The rest is commentary”

Catholic: I think you yourself mentioned the Mormonic reading of the book. I’d add that the book is subtly a commentary on many philsophical debates, and revoking most of them. Just like the New Testament

Islamic: The absolute and stubbornness, but that is also there in the Jewish Ten Commandments.I bring two more subtle spiritual readings. There is an Islamic concept which says: in paradise, you will see the effect of every good deed you did, be it a direct or a very non-linear effect. It’s like the spiritual-and-butterfly-effect-ish definition of compounding growths magic. The second concept is “Barzakh”, in some theological readings, it’s a realm where both the dead, highly accomplished “living” souls and the unborn souls reside at the same time. I would liken this to your zero-discount rate concept for future generations.

What do you think?

Best
Hasan

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/on-stubborn-attachments-and-religion-from-my-email.html/feed 25 93950 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/predictions-for-economics-given-ai.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=predictions-for-economics-given-ai Predictions for economics, given AI https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/971157113/0/marginalrevolution~Predictions-for-economics-given-AI.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/predictions-for-economics-given-ai.html#comments Thu, 08 Oct 2026 17:34:18 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93949 From Ingar Haaland: With math essentially being delegated to OpenAI, here’s what I predict for economics and the social sciences more generally: The top tier of research will just become better and it will be normal human-led research where AI is used for scale (e.g. conducting qualitative interviews with relevant populations, running behavioral interventions in […]

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]]> From Ingar Haaland:

With math essentially being delegated to OpenAI, here’s what I predict for economics and the social sciences more generally:

The top tier of research will just become better and it will be normal human-led research where AI is used for scale (e.g. conducting qualitative interviews with relevant populations, running behavioral interventions in the field, analyzing massive text data, etc.)

Field experiments will rise in value and generally making “connections” with firms and being able to run stuff (potentially testing AI pipelines) will be in high demand

Research with administrative data will become even more valuable, but the benefits might be concentrated among some prolific authors who are allowed by the government agencies to use local models to analyze the data at scale. PhD students can probably forget about it

Economic history will have a very exciting boom and there will be an enormous race and big rewards for digitizing archives as a source to both identify new research strategies and document new descriptive facts.

Review and verification systems will become massively improved with AI assistance and it will become standard practice to do a 360 review of the paper + code + data at the *submission* stage.

Research that in principle can already be almost completely outsourced to the AI (download and analyze public data, run simple survey experiments, write theory models) is in for a big shock. This would be very bad from the perspective of researchers who depend on this “bread and butter” research, but I think this type of work will just be outsourced to public agencies who can answer their own questions without the need for “peer-reviewed” research.

All of those make sense to me.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/predictions-for-economics-given-ai.html/feed 30 93949 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/thursday-assorted-links-573.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=thursday-assorted-links-573 Thursday assorted links https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/971156699/0/marginalrevolution~Thursday-assorted-links.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/thursday-assorted-links-573.html#comments Thu, 08 Oct 2026 17:14:37 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93947 1. War in space? 2. How the math breakthroughs might matter. 3. Short proof of quasi-Riemann. 4. App for finding art exhibitions. 5. Podcast on African economic growth. 6. New and very good book: The Madrid Model: How Freedom and Openness Created an Economic Powerhouse, by Diego Sánchez de la Cruz. 7. This is only the […]

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]]> 1. War in space?

2. How the math breakthroughs might matter.

3. Short proof of quasi-Riemann.

4. App for finding art exhibitions.

5. Podcast on African economic growth.

6. New and very good book: The Madrid Model: How Freedom and Openness Created an Economic Powerhouse, by Diego Sánchez de la Cruz.

7. This is only the beginning.

8. Democracy thwarted, pufffin to be featured on banknotes.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/thursday-assorted-links-573.html/feed 65 93947 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/how-and-why-did-the-victorians-succeed.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=how-and-why-did-the-victorians-succeed How and why did the Victorians succeed? https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/971133170/0/marginalrevolution~How-and-why-did-the-Victorians-succeed.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/how-and-why-did-the-victorians-succeed.html#comments Thu, 08 Oct 2026 07:02:17 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93948 From Samuel Hughes, in Works in Progress: The elites of Victorian Britain operated differently. Their schools and universities were not terribly academic and had very little STEM. As adults, they got up late, drank a lot, and spent a remarkable share of their waking hours partying. They loved feasting, sports, holidays, dancing, and dressing up. […]

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]]> From Samuel Hughes, in Works in Progress:

The elites of Victorian Britain operated differently. Their schools and universities were not terribly academic and had very little STEM. As adults, they got up late, drank a lot, and spent a remarkable share of their waking hours partying. They loved feasting, sports, holidays, dancing, and dressing up. Contrary to their stodgy reputation, they were probably a lot of fun.

Here is some further detail:

Most socially elite Victorian boys began formal education at the age of seven or eight, spending about five years in a ‘preparatory school’ before passing on to a ‘public school’ (which, to the enduring confusion of international observers, is a kind of elite private school). There was a hierarchy of public schools, with the nine ‘Clarendon schools’ at the top, and just one, Eton College, clearly at the apex. About 30 percent of nineteenth-century cabinet ministers and 40 percent of prime ministers were Old Etonians.

Most students at both preparatory and public schools were boarders, meaning that elite Victorians were generally sent away from home by the age of eight and spent their childhoods more with peers than with family. In this respect they were distinctive even in their own time: elite families in continental Europe and the United States were far more likely to keep their children at home and educate them at small local private schools. It is plausible that this contributed to the lack of subnational loyalties in the British elite, in contrast to the distinct elites of, for example, the Southern United States, Catalonia in Spain, or Hungary in the Austrian Empire.

Nor did the Victorians wake up early in the morning.  Recommended, there is much more at the link, though the answer to the question remains somewhat of a mystery to me.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/how-and-why-did-the-victorians-succeed.html/feed 91 93948 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/what-ive-been-reading-296.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=what-ive-been-reading-296 What I’ve been reading https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/971130848/0/marginalrevolution~What-Ive-been-reading.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/what-ive-been-reading-296.html#comments Thu, 08 Oct 2026 04:52:29 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93918 1. Begoña Gómez Urzaiz, The Abandoners: On Mothers and Monsters.  A wonderful book about mothers who abandon their children, and properly unsentimental.  You will never think about Muriel Spark the same way again.  Vashti Bunyan gets a section too.  Recommended. 2. Evan Gershkovich, This Cursed Beautiful Land: A Russian-American Story.  Yes he is the WSJ […]

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]]> 1. Begoña Gómez Urzaiz, The Abandoners: On Mothers and Monsters.  A wonderful book about mothers who abandon their children, and properly unsentimental.  You will never think about Muriel Spark the same way again.  Vashti Bunyan gets a section too.  Recommended.

2. Evan Gershkovich, This Cursed Beautiful Land: A Russian-American Story.  Yes he is the WSJ reporter who was arrested by the secret service in Putin’s Russia and held for eighteen months before being traded back home.  He starts off naive, but does not finish that way.  A compelling read, with good background information on what it is like to live in Russia in recent times, namely early years of the war with Ukraine.  In prison it seems he was treated better than most.  Excerpt: “I remembered what Eugenia Ginzburghad written about her two years in a maximum-security Yaroslavl prison before being sent to the Gulag — that during this period she was the best version of herself, at her most patient, kind, and thoughtful.”

3. Reinier de Graaf, architect, verb: The New Language of Building.  A fun read, with chapters on the various prizes in architecture, Vancouver and city liveability, Richard Florida, and more.  The book closes with a fun list of b.s. terms often heard from both academics and bureaucrats.

4. China Mieville, The Rouse.  This novel is 1200 pp. plus, with pretty big pages, and I am on p.350 or so.  It seems very good.  At what point can I judge it?  Can it sustain itself?  Is “ah, but it fell apart on p.1137” actually a possibility?  Past what page number is it in the clear?  I guess I will find out.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/what-ive-been-reading-296.html/feed 18 93918 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/wednesday-assorted-links-574.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=wednesday-assorted-links-574 Wednesday assorted links https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/971117906/0/marginalrevolution~Wednesday-assorted-links.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/wednesday-assorted-links-574.html#comments Wed, 07 Oct 2026 17:40:28 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93946 1. Palo Alto Networks (cybersecurity firm, check out YTD). 2. OAI doing math again.  Quasi-Riemann!  And just one metric of import. 3. The AI agents pitching literary magazines. 4. Redux of my 2022 post on the effective altruists. 5. Rude AI video about Europe. 6. Power constraints and the productivity slowdown.

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]]> 1. Palo Alto Networks (cybersecurity firm, check out YTD).

2. OAI doing math again.  Quasi-Riemann!  And just one metric of import.

3. The AI agents pitching literary magazines.

4. Redux of my 2022 post on the effective altruists.

5. Rude AI video about Europe.

6. Power constraints and the productivity slowdown.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/wednesday-assorted-links-574.html/feed 61 93946 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/against-laissez-faire-democracy.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=against-laissez-faire-democracy Against Laissez-Faire Democracy https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/971094581/0/marginalrevolution~Against-LaissezFaire-Democracy.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/against-laissez-faire-democracy.html#comments Wed, 07 Oct 2026 11:18:34 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93924 In a new paper, Brennan and Freiman argue persuasively that: the arguments against laissez-faire capitalism apply in a rather straight way against laissez-faire democracy. This should be a rather startling result, considering that laissez-faire capitalism is widely rejected, yet laissez-faire democracy is widely accepted. All the typical market failure arguments–externalities, asymmetric information, principal-agent problems, behavioral […]

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]]> In a new paper, Brennan and Freiman argue persuasively that:

the arguments against laissez-faire capitalism apply in a rather straight way against laissez-faire democracy. This should be a rather startling result, considering that laissez-faire capitalism is widely rejected, yet laissez-faire democracy is widely accepted.

All the typical market failure arguments–externalities, asymmetric information, principal-agent problems, behavioral issues–apply to democracy. For example:

democracies also suffer from obvious externality problems. Indeed, this is the key difference between markets and politics. Market decisions are usually and mostly internalized; negative externalities are seen as an anomaly to be corrected. Political decisions are by nature public. For instance, about 37% of the eligible
voting public, and 26% of the entire population of the UK voted in favour of Brexit, but the effects of Brexit are borne by everyone else, including losing voters, eligible voters who abstained, children and other citizens ineligible to vote, future generations, and foreigners.

…The problem is similar to the pollution of individual automobile drivers or airline passengers. We drive too much and pollute too much because we bear the benefits of these actions but pass the costs onto others. Individually we matter little but collectively we matter a great deal. If externality regulation is prima facie justified in the case of pollution, it is prima facie justified in the case of voting.

They go on to suggest regulations that might apply to democracy. Noting first that:

…pretty much everyone already accepts some government actions which are plausibly seen as vote or democratic regulation. For instance, some issues are put directly to voters, while others are left to elected leaders, while others are left to judges and bureaucracies, and still others are removed from political consideration entirely. The timing and place of elections, who is permitted to vote (at what age), who is permitted to run for office, and so on are kinds of regulation. Government funding of public education is in part meant to be a non-laissez-faire subsidy meant to increase voter competence. Many readers are likely comfortable with government regulation of campaign donations, campaign expenditures and even which kinds of speech are permitted. Probably almost all readers reject straight up markets in votes (Freiman 2014). Each of these things is a kind of government regulation of democracy which inhibits laissez-faire democracy.

The authors sketch possible regulations while stipulating, for the sake of argument, universal, equal suffrage—no weighted votes or knowledge tests for voting eligibility. Possibilities include paying citizens to pass a voluntary civics exam; tracking campaign promises and fining deceptive claims; regulating political advertisements more like drug advertisements; and requiring supermajorities for certain decisions. See the paper for more.

You may object that these regulations would be captured by special interests, be administered by biased officials, or have unintended consequences. Indeed, welcome to the argument for laissez-faire.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/against-laissez-faire-democracy.html/feed 91 93924 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/texas-canada-fact-of-the-day.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=texas-canada-fact-of-the-day Texas-Canada Fact of the Day https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/971094584/0/marginalrevolution~TexasCanada-Fact-of-the-Day.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/texas-canada-fact-of-the-day.html#comments Wed, 07 Oct 2026 11:16:54 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93944 Texas produces more than Canada with three quarters of the population. Rough numbers for 2025: Texas Canada Texas / Canada Population 31.7 million 41.7 million 0.76 GDP, nominal (US$) $2.9 trillion $2.3 trillion 1.27 GDP per capita, nominal $91,500 $55,700 1.64 GDP per capita, PPP $94,000 $66,700 1.41 GDP, PPP (int’l $) $3.0 trillion $2.75 […]

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]]> Texas produces more than Canada with three quarters of the population. Rough numbers for 2025:

Texas Canada Texas / Canada
Population 31.7 million 41.7 million 0.76
GDP, nominal (US$) $2.9 trillion $2.3 trillion 1.27
GDP per capita, nominal $91,500 $55,700 1.64
GDP per capita, PPP $94,000 $66,700 1.41
GDP, PPP (int’l $) $3.0 trillion $2.75 trillion 1.09

Sources: BEA (Texas GDP, preliminary 2025; regional price parity), Census Bureau (Texas population), World Bank and IMF (Canada). Texas PPP figures divide nominal GDP by the BEA regional price parity.

Hat tip: Chris Powers.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/texas-canada-fact-of-the-day.html/feed 106 93944 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/why-most-stereotypes-are-negative.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=why-most-stereotypes-are-negative Why most stereotypes are negative https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/971086808/0/marginalrevolution~Why-most-stereotypes-are-negative.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/why-most-stereotypes-are-negative.html#comments Wed, 07 Oct 2026 07:03:57 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93941 Stereotypes are a foundational construct in psychological science, often defined as beliefs concerning characteristic group attributes. We present a cognitive-ecological theory of social perception that predicts and explains why such characteristic attributes are likely negative, that is, why most stereotypes are negative. The theory assumes that, cognitively, people characterize groups by attributes that distinguish them […]

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]]>

Stereotypes are a foundational construct in psychological science, often defined as beliefs concerning characteristic group attributes. We present a cognitive-ecological theory of social perception that predicts and explains why such characteristic attributes are likely negative, that is, why most stereotypes are negative. The theory assumes that, cognitively, people characterize groups by attributes that distinguish them from other groups. Ecologically, positive social information is more frequent (i.e., positivity  prevalence), and negative social information is more diverse (i.e., negativity diversity. If negative attributes are less frequent and more diverse relative to positive attributes, then they must be more likely to distinguish one group from another. Consequently, the attributes people see as characteristic of a group are likely to be negative. We illustrate the predicted stereotype negativity across two studies and two existing data sets. We then formalize the theory and illustrate it with simulations showing that rare attributes can be highly diagnostic of group membership while applying to only a minority of group members. Thus, the theory explains why most stereotype content is likely negative, despite the well-documented positivity prevalence, and why stereotypes may be diagnostic and comparatively accurate, despite being descriptively inaccurate. The theory explains stereotype negativity without requiring motivational derogation, essentialist group differences, or a general negativity bias, and it clarifies when positive stereotypes should occur. We also discuss the theory’s relation to dimensional models of stereotype content and consequences for interventions aimed at reducing stereotype negativity.

That is from a recent paper by Christian Unkelbach, Anne Irena Weitzel, and Hans Alves, via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/why-most-stereotypes-are-negative.html/feed 27 93941 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/effective-altruism-is-useful-at-the-margin.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=effective-altruism-is-useful-at-the-margin Effective altruism is useful at the margin https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/971083523/0/marginalrevolution~Effective-altruism-is-useful-at-the-margin.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/effective-altruism-is-useful-at-the-margin.html#comments Wed, 07 Oct 2026 04:49:13 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93943 That is the theme of my latest Free Press essay, here is one excerpt: I feel I am well aware of the limitations of effective altruism, and I have outlined many others in an hour-long dialogue I had with MacAskill, arguably the father of the movement, in 2022. Nonetheless, at the margin I think more […]

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]]> That is the theme of my latest Free Press essay, here is one excerpt:

I feel I am well aware of the limitations of effective altruism, and I have outlined many others in an hour-long dialogue I had with MacAskill, arguably the father of the movement, in 2022.

Nonetheless, at the margin I think more effective altruism would be a good thing.

First, I am not worried that the desires of current human beings will be devalued or ignored. Such desires rule the politics of all Western nations and many others as well. If anyone tried to pass a bill to advance shrimp welfare, I do not think it would get a single vote in Congress. In the meantime, we still do treat animals with excessive cruelty, relative to improvements we might make (you could start by eating less chicken and more beef, because a demand for beef kills fewer cows, given the larger size of the cow.) It would be better if people paid at least partial heed to the strictures of effective altruism on this and many other points.

What about the AIs? Well, artificial intelligence is going to fundamentally transform our world. Many connected to effective altruism may exaggerate its effects, or perceive a high risk of doom without sufficient evidence. Nevertheless, it would be a good thing if we paid more attention to AI issues, and to AI safety in particular. Score another point for effective altruism, at least if you make marginal rather than fully extreme adjustments.

As for aid to Africa and poor nations everywhere, I am not sure of the exact policy to pursue, but foreign aid is currently well below 1 percent of the U.S. federal budget, and the Trump administration pared it back. We are hardly sacrificing our seed corn in America to elevate the rest of the world. In the meantime, if you support some charitable public health programs in Africa and save some lives instead of donating to Harvard, that is probably a better decision.

Again, effective altruism is directionally correct, even if you should not follow its recommendations all the way.

Recommended.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/effective-altruism-is-useful-at-the-margin.html/feed 60 93943 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/brazil-election-notes-from-my-email.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=brazil-election-notes-from-my-email Brazil election notes (from my email) https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/971075840/0/marginalrevolution~Brazil-election-notes-from-my-email.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/brazil-election-notes-from-my-email.html#comments Tue, 06 Oct 2026 22:38:14 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93942 From Diego Costa: “Hi Tyler, If you’re still interested in the fallout from Brazil’s elections, here are some observations that add texture to the usual narratives: Nine of the 10 candidates who received the most votes for the Lower Chamber are under 40. The exception is 41. Their average age is 31.6. They’re all very […]

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]]> From Diego Costa:

“Hi Tyler,

If you’re still interested in the fallout from Brazil’s elections, here are some observations that add texture to the usual narratives:

  • Nine of the 10 candidates who received the most votes for the Lower Chamber are under 40. The exception is 41. Their average age is 31.6. They’re all very online and cultural-war centered. Four are pro-woke and six are anti-woke. The biggest vote-winner, anti-woke Nikolas Ferreira, will still be too young to run for president in 2030.

  • There is a divergence between evangelical influencers and the big evangelical churches. While evangelical politicians with strong personal followings did well, several major big church machines lost seats, particularly in Rio.

  • Brazil is expected to have its most female Senate ever, with 18 of 81 senators, driven by women on the right. All three senators representing the Federal District will be right-wing, including Jair Bolsonaro’s wife, Michelle Bolsonaro.

  • This might be the end of Lulismo. Lula or his chosen candidate has run in every presidential election since 1989, but he has no obvious successor. If he loses the runoff, his personal presidential record will stand at three wins and four losses. Several historical PT historical figures also lost their bids. And Lula, who began his career with votes from the educated middle class in Brazil’s industrial Southeast, is ending it by leading only in the poorest income bracket and the poorer Northeast region.

  • Flávio Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party won 121 seats in the Chamber and should hold 28 in the Senate, a record for any party since the 1988 Constitution. It will nevertheless remain short of a majority in both houses. The Chamber will feature 20 parties, down from the 30 elected in 2018.

  • The Bolsonaro family elected two senators (Jair’s wife Michelle and son Carlos) and two federal deputies (his son Jair Renan and brother Renato). His son Flávio is leading going into the presidential runoff, while his other son Eduardo might become minister. That is possibly the highest concentration of national political power in one immediate family since the Brazilian Republic was founded in 1889.

  • Lava Jato’s leading figures made a strong electoral comeback. Sergio Moro, the former judge who convicted Lula, won the governorship of Paraná in the first round. Deltan Dallagnol, who led the prosecution, won enough votes for a Senate seat, although his eligibility may be contested in the superior courts.

  • Anger over corruption and power grabs by Supreme Court justices was a defining factor in the first-round result. I expect a confrontation between the new Senate and the court over limits on its powers to become a major story in 2027. Brazil’s Supreme Court issued over 100,000 decisions in 2025 alone.”

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