Marginal Revolution

AI in science

Tyler Cowen — Sun, 27 Sep 2026 19:03:12 +0000

Scientific progress is a key driver of economic growth and prosperity. There is great excitement- but also concerns- about the impacts of AI on science, but so far little data. We provide early insights on this from three data sources: a sample of 15 million Gemini interactions, an inventory of over 2,600 specialized AI models across disciplines, and a survey of over 600 scientists. We map these data to a new taxonomy of scientific tasks to study how scientists are using AI. Four main findings emerge. First, we find broad adoption and coverage: scientists use AI more than most other occupations. Specialized AI models have broad disciplinary coverage and are highly cited. Nearly half of the scientists surveyed report using some form of AI every day. Second, we document evidence that LLMs (proxied through Gemini usage) and specialized models act as complements—LLMs are used for general analysis, coding, and manuscript preparation, while specialized models provide domain-specific predictions, data generation and classification. Third, scientists report large productivity gains from using AI: a saving of nearly 7 hours per week, time which is primarily re-invested in more research. Finally, we show that AI is already changing the scientific process. As some stages of scientific research become easier, bottlenecks shift downstream. Scientists report an increased backlog of untested hypotheses and substantial demand for output verification. Our findings suggest that AI holds significant potential to increase scientific productivity. However, as with other sectors, its ultimate impact will be governed by complex task interdependencies and investment into the elimination of emerging bottlenecks.

That is from a new paper by Mihai Codreanu, et.al.

The post AI in science appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to et al.. Period is the new spacebar, if you type ... by Commenter
In reply to Joseph Ferguson. Abduction is the key process ... by DGS
In reply to marcus. Most recent one was September 23 2026. ... by Brent Buckner
is Mr Cowen still reading books? Miss the “what I'm Reading” by marcus
“elimination of emerging bottlenecks” Did they just say ... by rsm
Plus 7 more...

Sunday assorted links

Tyler Cowen — Sun, 27 Sep 2026 15:52:50 +0000

2. Intelligence explosions are social.

3. The speech-processing skills of dogs.

4. Kalshi market in economics Nobel.

5. Why are Indian weddings with dancing gorillas going viral? Pakistan too.

6. Eminem, and some German guy.

7. On the UAP council.

8. On higher interest rates.

The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to mento. Eh… after seeing the ever increasing ... by JFA
In reply to Bob. “if there's anything to be found, it's ... by mkt42
2. Learning is embodied by EKE
In reply to Scott Sumner. Forever. by Dismalist
In reply to Bob. I agree that p-hacking is an enormous ... by Scott Sumner
Plus 10 more...

Earth fact of the day, #2

Tyler Cowen — Sun, 27 Sep 2026 06:56:56 +0000

The shortages have gone on for so long that they are aggressively driving down how much carbon is being released into the atmosphere, a Washington Post analysis of data from the International Energy Agency shows. People worldwide are using significantly less oil and gas, which means less climate pollution…

Such an annual decline has not happened since the height of the coronavirus pandemic. Fossil fuel consumption dropped significantly more then, and consumption was lower in absolute terms, too. Crude oil demand averaged 91 million barrels per day in 2020, compared with 102 million barrels per day under the latest IEA forecast.

But this year’s drop — especially given the sharp increase that was initially forecast — is substantial.

Here is the full story. Not a good thing overall, but there is a lesson in that to…

The post Earth fact of the day, #2 appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to Wayfaring Stranger. Transmission is the Achilles ... by Bob
In reply to Sure. African-installed solar grew by 26% in 2025 ... by Norman Quick
In reply to Guy. A Chinese EV is the cheapest new car in ... by Crikey
In reply to Sure. You’re such a Gloomy Gus! Focus on the ... by sumadartson
“Not a good thing overall…” Please explain. by DMSeattle
Plus 10 more...

The Federal Lands: An Economic Property Rights Perspective

Tyler Cowen — Sun, 27 Sep 2026 04:27:05 +0000

The US federal government owns and administers 472,892,659 acres or 21% of the land area of the lower 48 states, the country’s largest landowner. The resource is held and managed as a collective resource, the Federal Lands, through political and bureaucratic interpretation of the Multiple Use principle and generally, the biological aim of maximum sustained-yield. By contrast, access, exchange, and investment for most other US natural resources are through private property rights and markets. Despite the magnitude of the resource, economists have devoted relatively limited attention to the economic and welfare impact. The objective is to suggest economic implications and to encourage additional economic analyses. The discussion summarizes federal lands privatization through 1891, when withholding of federal lands began. The literature reveals no demonstratable market failure or increased resource scarcity from private exploitation between 1870 and 1957 when most lands were withheld. Because land was nonmobile and observable private property rights could have been assigned and any externalities addressed via Pigouvian restrictions or Coasean exchange. Federal ownership was not obviously required. Progressive Era reformers, driven by concerns of impending resource depletion, called for scientific, sustained-yield management by government officials. The institutional change is economically important. As outlined by Dixit and others, private rights holders have high powered incentives for efficient resource use that are lacking in decision making by agency officials who do not hold exchangeable property rights and do not directly bear the economic costs and benefits of their actions. Consequential public goods delivery could be an offset, but these are not measured for tradeoff calculations. Following Krueger, a rent-seeking framework is presented for comparing outcomes with economic property rights and political management. The analysis suggests that a.) federal lands will have lower production value than comparable private, all else equal; (b). federal lands management will be less responsive to shifts in economic costs and benefits. Public goods may be provided for high amenity, recreation, and ecological areas, but the dominant Multiple Use management principle provides no objective criteria for allocation or for periodic outcome assessment and adjustment. A literature review and data for contemporary federal forests, range, and oil and gas lands are provided.

That is from a new paper by Gary D. Libecap.

The post The Federal Lands: An Economic Property Rights Perspective appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to Steve Sailer. BTW, I was aware that Holden Mine, ... by Wayfaring Stranger
Some 3.5 million acres of forestland comprising much of the top ... by fghdcp
In reply to Steve Sailer. The park is mostly west of the ... by Wayfaring Stranger
In reply to Steve Sailer. The category you're trying to think ... by mkt42
In reply to Wayfaring Stranger. The North Cascades National ... by Steve Sailer
Plus 10 more...

What should I ask Terence Tao?

Tyler Cowen — Sat, 26 Sep 2026 17:38:34 +0000

Yes, I will be doing a Conversation with him. And he has a new book coming out Six Math Essentials. So what should I ask him?

The post What should I ask Terence Tao? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Saturday assorted links

Tyler Cowen — Sat, 26 Sep 2026 16:11:35 +0000

1. One way to use screens less, will it catch on?

2. Roon as cultural critic.

3. The Greenland deal sounds pretty good for America?

4. The cultures that are New England?

5. Yet newer results on AI-driven labor demand.

6. Ayn Rand as movie extra.

The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to M. What comedians would you recommend? by jezm
For all the people claiming Trump damaged NATO long term, tell ... by Harun
In reply to Old Primate. Right, perhaps it is try to say, but ... by dmcharette
In reply to Sure. Denmark isn't France or the UK, and it ... by sailordave
#3 Astonishingly short-sighted take from Tyler. The damage from ... by Anon
Plus 10 more...

Should you text more?

Tyler Cowen — Sat, 26 Sep 2026 07:28:35 +0000

Here, in five waves of panel data (N = 1,966 US adults), we examined associations between life satisfaction and self-reported use of ten common social technologies measured every 3 months on a six-point frequency scale from ‘I did not use’ to ‘multiple times daily’. At this measurement level and timescale, Bayesian and frequentist random-intercept cross-lagged panel models showed little credible evidence that any social technology use predicts subsequent life satisfaction. In the reverse direction, increases in life satisfaction predicted only modest increases in (video) calling in select demographic groups. In analyses comparing different people, frequency of texting was associated with higher life satisfaction, whereas frequency of YouTube and TikTok use was associated with lower life satisfaction. Despite limited ability to detect within-person change due to temporal stability in responses, the absence of cross-lagged effects is informative: there is scant evidence of a meaningful relationship between social technology use and subsequent life satisfaction.

That is from a new Nature article by Kostadin Kushlev, Kibum Moon, Matt Motyl, Nathanael J. Fast & Juliana Schroeder. Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

The post Should you text more? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to Patrick. A really effective power move is to ... by Pipsterate
Should you text more versus watching TikTok or YouTube? Yes. by Dan S.
I get more spam/scam texts than I do those from friends and ... by Grizzled Econ 101 Prof
To the answer the question, emphatically YES. You should stop ... by JFA
Extroversion, which is mostly an innate trait, is causally ... by James
Plus 7 more...

A doomsday scenario for American AI

Tyler Cowen — Sat, 26 Sep 2026 04:10:05 +0000

That is the title of my latest Free Press column, here is the closing bit:

Sick and elderly Americans will go to Chinese companies for their AI-invented and AI-tested medical devices and drugs. America still will be a wealthy country, so China will charge the highest prices possible, yet prioritize Chinese citizens for treatment. Large numbers of Americans will die prematurely, at least compared to a world in which many of those innovations came from the U.S. My colleague Alex Tabarrok has coined the phrase invisible graveyard to refer to these lost lives, invisible because we do not observe the state of the world where they get treatment readily and cheaply. Over time, this invisible graveyard will swell into the many millions.

Finally, we will ask what went wrong.

The postmortem will be this. Many people panicked about the possibility of strong AI models killing us all. That fear was not based on peer-reviewed scientific research showing a high chance of doom, nor was doom indicated in any market prices of the time, including measures of risk. It was a story, just like this is a story, and it was spread on social media. The key point of the doom story was that, if America keeps the No. 1 spot in AI models, the models will be so strong they will do us all in, or lead to unimaginable catastrophes. We were too afraid to have America keep the lead, forgetting that if truly destructive AI is our fate, the doomer scenario can come from Chinese AI as well.

Today, we cannot say for sure that the AI doom scenario is false. But is it a story we wish to live by? Is belief in it a good way to protect and extend life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness? Will it help us much, or for long, if it is Chinese AI that turns on us and does us in?

In my view, successful societies accept challenges and meet them. Solving problems, bit by bit, is the best way to ensure that we have the capabilities to meet big and truly existential risks, should those risks come along. Debating the chances of our doom, ex ante, on a highly speculative basis, is unlikely to provide the same kind of expertise and talent cultivation. It is instead more likely to demoralize and immobilize us.

So which America are we going to choose?

Recommended, do read the whole thing.

The post A doomsday scenario for American AI appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

The current doomerism is about pacing the frontier. If doing so ... by Peter Twieg
In reply to Wayfaring Stranger. Break it all down into ... by Dan W
In reply to M. Yes, this somewhat measured let's solve ... by dino
Is there a good explanation of why AI is doom scenario? I can't ... by Dan W
In reply to RAD. I don't think they'd feel they were front of ... by M
Plus 10 more...

Good points from James Gilliland

Tyler Cowen — Fri, 25 Sep 2026 18:13:07 +0000

It pains me to say this, but if we actually “get AGI,” the resulting boom in industrial capacity from robotics and massive society-wide wealth creation will look like a total vindication of neoliberalism.

The discourse about financialization and offshoring being a generational mistake may be replaced by a very different historical interpretation: that the late 20th and early 21st centuries were an enormous capital-accumulation phase, freeing up civilization-scale pools of liquid capital that could ultimately be deployed to accelerate and bring about the most consequential technological phase-change in human history.

In that telling, what looked like deindustrialization and betrayal from inside the period (I grew up in the Rust Belt, I know) becomes the prelude to reindustrialization on an almost unimaginable scale.

None of this is inevitable. The needle has certainly not been threaded. China and x-risk remain enormous contingencies. But if it is, I suspect the future will look back on the last 50 years very differently than we do today.

Here is the link.

The post Good points from James Gilliland appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to j mct. But, it was the violent Chartist movement ... by Kaleberg
In reply to anonprof. So what should I call you? by rsm
In reply to Robomaid. Certain sectors of the industrial ... by Biggles f'Tang
“If” by Diogenes
In reply to Dismalist. There is a big difference between ... by OldTrader
Plus 10 more...

Friday assorted links

Tyler Cowen — Fri, 25 Sep 2026 15:40:23 +0000

1. “We find a significant and highly robust empirical relationship between gender conservatism and protectionism. That relationship has been evident since 2008 and it decidedly is not a product of Trump-era politics.”

2. More than half the world’s top AI talent comes from China.

3. Argentina now at 1.0, Mexico at 1.2.

4. China is rushing to build a huge nuclear arsenal.

5. Afra Wang on some Chinese AI communities (New Yorker).

6. Mental health trends for Australian youth.

The post Friday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to Wayfaring Stranger. “Why would the US use ... by BC
In reply to Kaz Stanczak. Putin is still in power, no? He's ... by Wayfaring Stranger
In reply to BC. “why would China risk nuclear escalation to ... by Wayfaring Stranger
In reply to Neurotic. Yeah, sure. Gilligan's theory is that, ... by Lord Action
In reply to Hazel Meade. That sounds quite plausible to me. ... by Kaz Stanczak
Plus 10 more...

My Dreadful Body

Tyler Cowen — Fri, 25 Sep 2026 10:08:21 +0000

By Egana Djabbarova of Azerbaijan. A wonderful short novel, and as described by Olga Grjasnowa “An extraordinary novel that translates corporality and estrangement into language.” Here is the Amazon link.

This has been a fantastic year for fiction, and in November I will be writing up a report.

The post *My Dreadful Body* appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to Marginalistic Cormac. I'm surprised by AI ... by Uair01
Body: your only friend; your worst enemy. by Edward Burke
In reply to Indoor Camping. This is the frustration with ... by WillPearson
In reply to Rahul. Some reviewers actually noticed the style ... by mento
In reply to Marginalistic Cormac. Maybe this is an excellent ... by Rahul
Plus 7 more...

Armenia notes

Tyler Cowen — Fri, 25 Sep 2026 04:52:17 +0000

I strongly recommend a trip to Armenia, now is a great time to go. Here are a few things I noticed:

1. The country remains intellectual. The book fair is well attended. The classical music season is excellent, with good concerts multiple times a week, and the theatre scene, in both Armenian and Russian, is active. The country has only a little more than three million people, yet they have won gold medal in the chess Olympiad three times in recent memory. You could say the country has maintained the (few) strengths of the former Soviet Union, and is arguably the only place that has. It feels more like the former Soviet Union than Russia does.

2. The National Gallery has excellent Soviet and Russian paintings, while their Armenian collection is definitive. The Medieval Manuscripts museum is first-rate. Unfortunately, neither does anything to put images online, but all the more reason to go.

3. Armenian society is nearly 100% white and 100% Christian, as most of the immigrants (is that the right word here?) are Russian. Crime is close to zero, and the cars stop when you try to cross the street. Being a loyal northern Virginian, that mix is not “my thing.” But if that is what you wish to experience, if only briefly, Armenia is the place that serves it up without apology. Even secular Armenians have great respect for the national Apostolic church, as they view it as a guardian of Armenian independence.

4. The old monasteries are A level sights, and many of them are mere day trips from Yerevan, the capital. Most of the tourists you see at these are Russians, not Westerners. You also will see some Iranian tourists.

5. Yerevan is not great for old buildings, but the city is very walkable and pleasant and lively. I believe the winters are brutal, but September there is wonderful, every day was perfect weather.

5b. In Armenia you will see how their brutalism in fact comes from their earlier religious architectural traditions, and how the newer churches embody modern brutalist ideas as well. I found this very interesting.

6. I have a separate piece coming out on food in Armenia, for now I will just say it is excellent and novel as well.

7. Armenia is not dirt cheap, but it is much cheaper than most of Europe and so can be considered a bargain in relative terms.

8. Almost everyone in Yerevan speaks good Russian. The influence of Russia is embedded in virtually every institution, people like Russia, Russia supplies most of their energy, and is the number one trading partner. Russian troops protect them from Turkey. A Russian does not even need a passport to enter and live in Armenia. Russia is a permanent fixture in Armenian life, and most people do not seem to mind that. They are very disappointed that Putin did not protect them more in the war with Azerbaijan, but that is their major source of discontent, not that Russia and Putin are evil.

9. Armenia has close relations with Iran, and Armenians do not seem to hate Iran. They regard the country as a partial counterweight to Turkey, and for that matter Russia. People in Armenia are very conscious of the x-risk represented by Turkey. They also will speak to you about history in great detail, and they are very wrapped up in their past history. They are very familiar with maps.

10. You can see Mount Ararat, supposed resting place of Noah’s Ark, from the outskirts of Yerevan. It is beautiful. It remains on the Armenian currency, and in the hearts of Armenians, yet it is now part of Turkey and is very likely to remain so. Armenians refer to that part of Turkey as “Western Armenia.”

11. Here is someone else’s exaggerated take on the place, no it will not be the next Poland.

I would put it this way. At any point in time, there are a few parts of the world that are perfect for visiting and viewing. They should be comfortable, but still exotic and not overtouristed. Not dangerous, and not too full of hassles, yet replete with challenging and stimulating experiences. Yunnan in China is one such place. Currently, aAzerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia all fit this designation. They all have complex histories, and are not always in great shape, so now is the time to go. They will never get better to visit, and right now they are pretty close to perfect as destinations. See what you can, while you can.

The post Armenia notes appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to TMC. Interesting index; it does seem to have very ... by M
Yeah. That exaggerated “take” is pretty lame & actually ... by Rico Wolverine
In reply to Anonymous. And before them, the Irish were ... by mkt42
In reply to M. Yes, Armenia really pulled away. Delayed ... by TMC
In reply to steve. How do Indonesia, Brazil, and South Africa ... by Florida Man
Plus 10 more...

Peter Thiel on AI and tech stagnation and democracy

Tyler Cowen — Thu, 24 Sep 2026 23:31:20 +0000

Lots of fresh material, one of the very best Peter Thiel outputs.

The post Peter Thiel on AI and tech stagnation and democracy appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to Action Figure. Why can't you let us try it for ... by rsm
In reply to jmkd. From the above-linked article: “Bushmen ... by rsm
In reply to RAD. Thank you! The Pope now fits his criteria ... by Thank you!
Pound for pound, considering the esteem Thiel's held in by ... by JS
In reply to JD. ☐ Yes ☑ No by MikeP
Plus 10 more...

Earth fact of the day

Tyler Cowen — Thu, 24 Sep 2026 18:58:55 +0000

An average of 72 percent of respondents said they felt curious, happy or excited about A.I., compared with 41 percent who felt worried, sad or angry.’@nytimes‘s Damien Cave uses @Gallup data to remind us the rest of the world digs AI.

It is 93 percent positive from China. That is from Nick Gillespie. Snap out of it you sad sacks, hope you can recognize negative emotional contagion when you see it! You do not all need to be regional thinkers. Here are the full rankings. Here is another visualization of the numbers:

Strange bedfellows, you might say…

The post Earth fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.