“If we are thinking about AI just in terms of how do we cure cancer or get better energy, you can do that without having agentic AI and having it just roaming free in the internet.”

As Roon noted: “this sounds completely incoherent to me”

From Rob Saker:

An agent is a system that can plan, use tools, write code, query data, run experiments, check its own work, and keep going. That is how the work gets done. Treating “agentic” as optional decoration, as if the serious version of AI is a polite chatbot locked in a box while the unserious version “roams free on the internet”, is the kind of sentence you write when you’ve heard the buzzwords and never watched a lab actually use the technology. You do not cure cancer with a model that only answers questions. You cure cancer with systems that can read the literature, propose hypotheses, design assays, analyze results, rewrite the next experiment, and do that loop a thousand times faster than a human postdoc. That loop is agentic. Strip the agency out and you are left with a very expensive autocomplete.

I agree with those points, but my main concern is different.  How would we enforce such a prohibition on commercial agents?  Set up a Chinese-like firewall that bans Americans from accessing sites with foreign agents?  Monitor all those sites over time, so we know which suppliers to ban?  Ban VPN as well?  Give our government the power to inspect hard drives, in case agentic functions might be embedded there?  Set up FBI “phishes,” luring Americans in with the prospect of agent access from abroad, and then arresting them, as we do with child ****?

Something else?  How about insisting that all American (and foreign?) web sites set up tough captcha problems, so that agents may not be used (ha ha)?

You might also ask how an AI “agent” is to be defined, after all even O3 had some “agentic” abilities, such as opening up museum web sites to see which exhibits are on.  Is it typing things into boxes and filling out forms that is to be prohibited?  How much regulation of software would that require, how would that regulation actually occur, and what else would end up being restricted?

I do not think Obama intends to be supporting massive restrictions on freedom of speech and civil liberties.  Rather this is a good example of how some political factions will simply have “ideas about what might be good,” without having freedom concerns — or for that matter practicality and civil liberties concerns — center of mind in the first place.

And this would cause the immediate bankruptcy of both Anthropic and OpenAI, right?

I can readily imagine that, upon the advent of agentic AI, we need some significant changes in our cyber laws.  Now would be a good time to both commission and also cite some peer-reviewed academic literature on this matter!?  That is not an impossible thing to do, yet our public discourse seems oddly resistant to the notion.

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• Rich coming from the guy who legitimized the offensive use of ... by SF
• In reply to Rahul. Solving math problems (and writing code) ... by Slocum
• In reply to Peppa. We need someone to do another Latour and ... by Joseph Ferguson
• In reply to Rahul. AI ought to be focused on deductive and ... by Joseph Ferguson
• Saker seems to be suggesting that AI is agentic or will be as ... by Joseph Ferguson
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2. Secretariat as GOAT.

3. Dead brains and the piano??

4. “A real contribution of AI is showing the critical weaknesses of humans and human structures.”  But can we take it?

5. When did the Chinese reach New Zealand? (speculative)

6. “Everyone needs to realize we are fighting the summation of the last 100 years of war that never got settled they just slowed down at times”

7. “you have no idea how fast the world will accelerate AI progress if a world war began” — no major war (in addition to the status quo) would be one excellent move in the direction of AI (and other) safety.

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• In reply to Marian Kechlibar. Show me your shipwrecks! by yo
• In reply to David Pinto. I”m about your age and well ... by Thanatos Savehn
• In reply to EBUG. Feel free to check out the data center map: ... by Wayfaring Stranger
• In reply to EBUG. A world war would be unlikely to set back ... by Todd K
• In reply to Dismalist. The U.S. established a bona fide ... by Ricardo
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Kudos to the team!

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• Agree. Been hugely underrated for a long time by Peppa
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I observed, for example, that when I got an invitation to travel to give a talk in a different time zone, it mattered what time zone I was in when I got the invitation.  if well rested, in my home time zone, I would think, No big deal, about making a long trip and would likely accept.  However, if I was jet-lagged in a different time zone when the invitation came in, and in reach with the misery of travel, I would be far more likely to decline.

…Perhaps you’ve noticed when taking a long-haul flight that waiting for a connecting flight feels much worse if your layover is close to your final destination.

That is from the new and very stimulating The Opposite of Happiness: How Bad Feelings Make and Break Us, by George Loewenstein.  A very Smithian book I might add.  Reading this book, one also wonders if the researchers who do behavioral economics are more depressed than average?  (“I’ve met many depressive characters in my life, but one of the most reliably miserable people I’ve ever known is my friend and collaborator Matthew Rabin.”)

The post Empathy gaps appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• In reply to If only. Individuals with DSDs (disorders of ... by PollyLeritae
• In reply to S. Those who systematically violate the ... by Dismalist
• In reply to Dismalist. Yes, that was a reasonable position 30 ... by S
• In reply to If only. There are no mammals that produce both ... by Anti-Gnostic
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UK productivity rose at almost twice the pace previously estimated in the decade after the 2008 global financial crisis, according to new official figures that make Britain look much less of an international outlier.

Output per hour worked, the main measure of labour productivity, grew by an average of 1.3 per cent per year between 2009 and 2019, the Office for National Statistics said on Thursday. The ONS had previously estimated average annual growth of 0.7 per cent over the period.

The figure is based on a new “component-based” methodology that has already been adopted by many other national statistics institutes. It draws on a range of data sources to improve the ONS’s count of both the number of workers contributing to UK output and the number of hours worked.

Here is more from Delphine Strauss at the FT.

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• So UK productivity grew rather faster after 2008 than we ... by Peter
• In reply to D. Measured productivity rose. But nobody has any ... by Dismalist
• In reply to Dismalist. if you have the same amount of stuff, ... by D
• Here is the ONS explanation: ... by Dismalist
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…this month, Singapore launched a scheme promising actual cash to citizens as a reward for logging reading time on a government website.

It’s unlikely to make you megabucks – you have to rack up 50 reading sessions of at least 15 minutes to earn one Singapore dollar (£0.59), with only one logged session allowed per day. But behavioural scientists and psychologists told the Guardian such a scheme could still help boost a habit in precipitous decline…

We all know reading has long-term benefits, but a key element of the Singapore scheme hinges on introducing a short-term reward for the activity, mimicking the immediate dopamine hit of scrolling. In fact, the “gamified” element may be “smarter” than the financial reward offered, says Patrick Taylor, director of education at the Behavioural Insights Team (which originated in David Cameron’s Cabinet Office, also known as the “nudge unit”). “Having a manageable 15-minute daily goal, built around existing routines like commuting or bedtime, with streaks and tracking to keep progress visible” are the aspects that could make the scheme a success, he says.

Here is the full article.

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• Depending on what is required to log reading time on a govt ... by BC
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• I have been a voracious reader since I was 10 years old. I have ... by Dismalist
• In reply to Crikey. Nay, Trump is leading the counter ... by Dismalist
• How do they ensure people actually read vs. just click the ... by Gilligan
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• Empathy gaps
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2. Bergen County (Korean) fact of the day.

3. AIs cracking superforecasting.

4. Gregor Benko, RIP (NYT).

5. Joshua Saxe on the increase in cyber risk.

6. Lichtenstein political infighting heats up (FT).

7. Risk, the biggie.  And on the Suwalki gap.

The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• In reply to mkt42. Thank you for an engaging debate, mkt42:) ... by Kaz Stanczak
• In reply to tpe123. Indeed. The covid pandemic showed us how ... by MikeP
• In reply to MikeP. Actively engineered by whom? For what ... by tpe123
• In reply to Kaz Stanczak. Some of the analogy works, but ... by mkt42
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My position on AI is merely the conservative, skeptical position of 2006, updated with intellectual honesty for the reality of late 2026. And that position, if you need me to spell it out, is as follows:

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

It seems to me that the Singularity has already started; it’s just wildly unevenly distributed. Yes, I still unload the dishwasher and clip my toenails. On the other hand, in whatever years I have left, I don’t expect that I’ll ever again prove a theorem because I’m actually needed to prove it. If I do, it will only be for my or others’ enjoyment or edification.

The test is this: if we took the news of these past few weeks and sent it back in time twenty years, would I agree that it looked like the beginning of an AI Singularity? The intellectually honest answer is: yes, absolutely. But then that’s all we need. No backsies.

I feel like it would be healthy for everyone to stop grinding their ideological axes, their sentiments about Dario Amodei or Sam Altman, for long enough simply to acknowledge that the wonders and terrors are here. They couldn’t be here more clearly if the sky had turned reddish-orange like in the Matrix movies.

It’s here clearly enough that, when I put my kids to sleep at night, I now feel it in the pit of my stomach: what sort of future can they possibly have? What could they learn today that could possibly be relevant to that future? (Yesterday, my 13-year-old daughter joked unprompted that, if she wants to become a mathematician, it now looks like she has maybe two more weeks.) Certainly when my grad students want to discuss what sort of careers might await them on graduation, I no longer have any clue what to tell them.

…For anyone who says AI doom sounds like an apocalyptic religion, that the rationalists/Singulatarians seem like a Bay Area cult, that Eliezer Yudkowsky gives off the vibes of a messianic prophet: yes, yes, and yes. But crucially, today you’re no longer being asked to believe in arguments and extrapolations, but only in the front-page news. Accepting the reality of the coming machine god after it’s solved Navier-Stokes and dozens of other longstanding open math problems (while dramatically ramping up in capability every month), is sort of like accepting Jesus after he’s returned to earth on the gleaming cloud. It’s the epistemic bare minimum.

Yes, there’s still enormous uncertainty about what the rest of our lives will look like, but as far as I can tell, there’s no longer any real uncertainty that it’ll all mostly revolve around AI, and the extent to which we succeed or fail at directing its power toward human flourishing.

By any accounting that doesn’t stack the deck, Eliezer Yudkowsky was right about what the greatest challenge facing civilization in our lifetimes was going to be, and you and I were wrong about it. Why I was wrong is a question I’ll ask myself every day in whatever time remains. But, you know, at least I updated once the prophesied wonders and terrors actually started arriving! If you haven’t done likewise, why haven’t you?

The post The Age of Wonders and Terrors appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• In reply to Naveen_K. I code with AI 10 hours/day for work ... by Andy
• In reply to Joseph Ferguson. On the contrary, LLMs are ... by Sinister
• On AI and all technology, the future is already here, it's just ... by ed o
• In reply to mento. Unfortunately AI research (make number go ... by AI Doomer
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Using a panel of 81 countries across six World Values Survey waves (1990–2022), we examine whether growth in internet diffusion is associated with religious decline. We construct a six-item composite religiosity index, align annual macro series to wave periods, and estimate country fixed-effects models with one-wave lags and a broad set of modernization, demographic, welfare-state, and cultural controls. We also estimate models separately for individual dimensions of religiosity. Across specifications, lagged internet penetration is negatively associated with religiosity within countries over time. These results remain robust under period dummies and in models estimated without lags, although reverse-ordering tests indicate that prior religiosity can also predict later internet use. Associations are strongest for denominational belonging and self-identification as a religious person. Overall, internet diffusion emerges as a robust macro-level correlate of within-country religious decline.

Here is the full article by Miran Lavrič and Tibor Rutar.  Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

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• In reply to anonprof. I wonder how much of the fraternal and ... by Bob
• In reply to Sure. I think Christianity in particular has got ... by Anti-Gnostic
• In reply to Anti-Gnostic. Has not really shown up in the ... by Sure
• In reply to Gilligan. I suspect, though, that they go the ... by Sure
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Rishabh received his grant to build a platform for real-time updates from Delhi courts, making judicial activity easier to track and understand.

Hari and Naveen received their grant for Archgen AI, an agentic ecosystem connecting legacy EDA tools with AI workflows for semiconductor chip design.

Shubh, 18, received his grant to scale robotics using world models.

Sarthak Ahuja received his grant for Hypertensight, a smartphone-based system for detecting hypertensive retinopathy, now deployed in over 18 Indian villages. His project was also published in the International Journal of Computer Science and Engineering in 2024.

Michaela Talwar, received her grant for AltShows.com, an artist-run ticketing and discovery platform for India’s alternative arts ecosystem.

Avyukt Jindal, 16, received his grant to develop a nonlinear operator framework and pursue related work in condensed matter and other fields.

Anirudh Anilkumar, 29, and AV Surya Vardhan, 26, received their grant for Fe-rry, developing IoT-enabled modular point-of-care diagnostics for blood testing anywhere.

Bhanvi Kumar, a fourth-year Biotechnology and Biochemical Engineering undergraduate at IIT Kharagpur, received her grant to study cellular reprogramming and cancer cell-state transitions.

Samanvya Hooda received his grant for nuclear strategy research in the Indo-Pacific using Mandarin sources and quantitative methods.

Pradyumn Chaudhary received his grant to build a low-cost, customizable augmented-reality prototype for practical use.

Jay Handa, 16, received his grant to build SMAC (Swing Match AI for Coaches), an AI-powered golf swing analysis platform for coaches.

Sajeeva Ratnam Nepala, 28, founder of Helen Bikes, received his grant to develop a series-hybrid pedal system for the first fully electric hubless bicycle.

Hitendra Singh, cofounder of Spantrik, received his grant to develop reusable rockets, including the Leapfrogger demonstrator; he has built and flown over 100 high-powered rockets.

Avi Mohan Kumar Shuklaa, 17, received his grant for a solar-powered AI elephant deterrent using seismic and radar sensor fusion, already field-deployed in Jharkhand.

Surya Uthkarsha, 14, received his grant for Flake AI, infrastructure that converts websites into editable designs and reflects changes in the underlying codebase.

Kritarth Agrawal received his grant for Sakshya, an AI-powered document-intelligence platform for India’s compliance and regulatory ecosystem.

Tejas Pugalia, 13, received his grant to advance his research on the Ramanujan-tau function and prepare for the International Mathematical Olympiad.

Arnav, 17, from Navi Mumbai, received his grant to build a $200 diagnostic pen intended as an alternative to a $3,000 Parkinson’s scan.

Arjan Chaudhary, 15, received his grant for GGameChamps, which structures competitive-gameplay data for analytics and AI use.

Satadru Chakrabarty, Ph.D., received his grant to develop an affordable multiplexed point-of-care diagnostic using de novo antibodies for liver-function testing in rural India.

Varun Bajpai received his grant for the Biological Data Network (BDN-04), a bio-integrated communication architecture exploring human muscle tissue for data transmission.

Semil Vaghasiya, 24, received his grant to develop sensor-free, 3D-printed hoof pads that use wear-deformation to predict equine injuries.

Kanukant Om Gupta and Mansi Gupta received their grant for Clearquik, to make customs clearance in India simpler, more transparent, and legitimate.

Parth Anand, 15, received his grant for research on temporal hallucinations in large language models across Western and non-Western domains. His paper was accepted for an oral presentation by the Society for Study for Artificial Intelligence and Simulation Behaviour XTAI symposium.

Shadman Sakib received his grant for youth development, communication, practical career guidance, and accessible learning initiatives in Bangladesh; his content reaches over 160,000 subscribers.

Sk Reezaal Arafat, 16, received his grant for Project SATARK, a decentralized agricultural fire-interception grid combining AI, IoT sensors, and a local response network in rural West Bengal.

Manan Gupta received his grant for Artemis, a proactive AI layer that lets users control their digital life through a phone call.

Srijal Dutta received his grant for ZSMC Co., an independent research initiative working across emerging technologies and engineering.

Those unfamiliar with Emergent Ventures can learn more here and here. The EV India announcement is here. More about the winners of EV India second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth, tenth, eleventh, twelfth, thirteenth, fourteenth, and fifteenth , sixteenth, seventeenth and eighteenth cohorts. To apply for EV India, use the EV application, click the “Apply Now” button and select India from the “My Project Will Affect” drop-down menu.

And here is Nabeel’s AI engine for other EV winners. Here are the other EV cohorts.

If you are interested in supporting the India tranche of Emergent Ventures, please write to me or to Shruti at srajagopalan@mercatus.gmu.edu.

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• > develop sub-angstrom optical MEMS sensors for next-generation ... by Action Figure

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• In reply to Wayfaring Stranger. are the result of ... by Both
• Hard pivot to wyoming after burning all yur credibility on ... by Nervous Nelly
• In reply to mkt42. Yellowstone is top tier. I recommend going ... by Jumfrey Tuckins, President of Bugling
• In reply to Diogenes. So we shouldn't solve problems? The ... by Wayfaring Stranger
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2. Urban harassment of women in India.

3. The making of Roger Scruton?

4. Astra vs. Enigma.

5. Coetzee on genocide.

6. Dan Ariely update.  And running for office in Israel.

7. A more sober look at the HuggingFace incident (WSJ).

8. Cass Sunstein on AI regulation and China.

9. New UAP videos, with modest explanatory notes.

The post Friday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• In reply to bazza. You can just grab them with a free hand, ... by Anti-Gnostic
• In reply to AI Doomer. Yes, but the alignment problem so far ... by BC
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Here we introduce Paper2Agent, an automated framework that converts research papers into artificial intelligence (AI) agents. Paper2Agent transforms research output from passive artefacts into active systems that accelerate use and discovery. Conventional research papers require readers to understand and adapt the paper’s code, data and methods to their work, creating barriers to dissemination and reuse. Paper2Agent addresses this challenge by converting a paper into an AI agent that functions as a virtual corresponding author, exposing its manuscript, supplementary materials, datasets, code and workflows as active, agent-native knowledge rather than static text. It analyses the paper and codebase using multiple agents to construct a model context protocol (MCP) server, then generates and runs tests to refine and increase robustness of the MCP. These paper MCPs can be connected to a chat agent (such as Claude Code) to carry out complex scientific queries through natural language while invoking tools and workflows from the paper. We demonstrate Paper2Agent’s effectiveness through case studies. Paper2Agent created an agent that leveraged AlphaGenome¹ to interpret genomic variants and agents based on Scanpy² and TISSUE (transcript imputation with spatial single-cell uncertainty estimation)³ to conduct single-cell and spatial transcriptomics analyses. We validate that these agents reproduce the results of the original papers and carry out novel user queries. Paper2Agent created multiple agents that collaborate to prioritize a causal gene for psoriasis. By turning static papers into interactive AI agents, Paper2Agent introduces a paradigm for knowledge dissemination and a collaborative ecosystem of AI co-scientists.

As I have been saying for a while now, there is much more of this coming down the pike.  Via Charles Klingman.

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• In reply to Patrick. Tsk: the perils of anti-rationalism. ... by Edward Burke
• In reply to Edward Burke. Sorry dude, you're not smart. by Patrick
• In reply to Todd K. I get that but in 1985 computers were ... by Wayfaring Stranger
• In reply to Tom Meadowcroft. “An AI can examine all of the ... by Wayfaring Stranger
• In reply to Kaz Stanczak. If we're properly committed to the ... by Joseph Ferguson
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And this leads to the most interesting part of this story: how the highlanders were so isolated for so long.

I want to acknowledge that the highlanders were not completely, hermetically sealed off from the outside world – it’s just that knowledge of outside world never actually made it to them or vice versa.

Over time, a few goods did make their way up to the highlands: pigs, about 3,000 years ago; the sweet potato, which is South American and arrived about 300 to 400 years ago; and tobacco, also American, which came the same way.

The journey the sweet potato and tobacco took to get there is a good example of how this all worked without transmitting further information. The Spanish and Portuguese brought both plants to the spice islands (in what is now Indonesia), just off the western tip of New Guinea, in the 1500s. The sultanates had been trading with the western tip of the coastal region of New Guinea for centuries. So the plants crossed over and started moving east along the coast and up into the interior. Beyond that point, there were no merchants. But when a woman married into the next clan over, she took cuttings from her family’s garden with her. Each new family then planted the same, saw that it worked, and passed it on. At that pace the sweet potato crossed the highlands in a century or two, with nobody knowing where it came from beyond the tribe beside them.

And what fascinates me is that even with the highlands as sealed off as they were, such significant goods still got in. Sweet potatoes allowed a population explosion in the highlands: they give far more calories per acre, and pigs can live off them. So in a 10,000 year sealed off universe, after the invention of agriculture, the biggest change to highland life happened in the last 500 years, which I guess isn’t a coincidence, as the sweet potato got there through the same structural forces that later brought the Australians.

Here is much more from Daniel Frank, fascinating throughout.

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2. Ingeborg Bachmann centenary.

3. “Huawei Technologies Co. predicted on Wednesday that global computing demand will surge 100,000-fold by 2035, with AI agents generating over 90% of network traffic.”  And a report from someone who has done AI diplomacy with China (NYT).

4. “US Gov Federal Register use distilled Qwen models in their search mode.”

5. How well do financial economics papers replicate?

6. DeepMind Institute.

The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• In reply to mento. If we believe that energy efficiency for ... by M
• In reply to M. Energy per computation doesn't remain ... by mento
• In reply to Bob. >most projects in most large companies are ... by Mitchell
• 2. It’s always cognitively dissonant when Tyler links to ... by Peter Akuleyev
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