Marginal Revolution https://marginalrevolution.com/ Small Steps Toward A Much Better World Sun, 23 Aug 2026 02:41:18 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/cropped-MR-logo-thumbnail-32x32.png Marginal REVOLUTION https://marginalrevolution.com/ 32 32 42693868 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/my-recent-visit-to-anthropic.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=my-recent-visit-to-anthropic My recent visit to Anthropic https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/968131970/0/marginalrevolution~My-recent-visit-to-Anthropic.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/my-recent-visit-to-anthropic.html#respond Sun, 23 Aug 2026 06:32:29 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93652 I very recently participated in a two-day session to offer guidance on rewriting the constitution for Claude.  The small group invited was uniformly excellent, we received serious time with key decision-makers, and the discussions were of very high quality. Some of the points I stressed were the following: 1. Whatever one might take a “constitution” […]

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]]> I very recently participated in a two-day session to offer guidance on rewriting the constitution for Claude.  The small group invited was uniformly excellent, we received serious time with key decision-makers, and the discussions were of very high quality.

Some of the points I stressed were the following:

1. Whatever one might take a “constitution” to mean in this context, it needs to borrow more from analogs to case law and the common law.

2. Along related lines, think more in terms of “Talmud,” and not just in terms of “Torah.”

3. Work to help build out a quality secondary literature on the AI constitutions and related documents.  Currently this does not exist.

4. Consider how a panel of diverse AIs, with different prompts, could help to evaluate to what extent Claude (and other AI models) were acting in accord with their constitutions.

5. Have a final board of human adjudicators, functioning in a manner analogous to an independent judiciary.  To the extent the panel of diverse AIs might have concerns about Claude not following its constitution, those AIs could alert the human adjudicators to what was going on.  Those human adjudicators could then have authority over potential changes and remedies.

Here a recent short post on using internal courts and the common law to help govern/self-govern AI.  And on the courts.

I thank Anthropic for having us in.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/my-recent-visit-to-anthropic.html/feed 0 93652 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/the-new-agentic-o-ring-world.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-new-agentic-o-ring-world The new agentic O-ring world https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/968130434/0/marginalrevolution~The-new-agentic-Oring-world.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/the-new-agentic-o-ring-world.html#comments Sun, 23 Aug 2026 04:56:00 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93651 But because agents often require guidance or additional context as they move through their tasks, Sharma, 27, finds himself wanting to be available to them around the clock and forgoing a regular sleep schedule as a result. Until recently, he couldn’t monitor them remotely through a phone or smartwatch. “The cost of the agents’ being […]

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But because agents often require guidance or additional context as they move through their tasks, Sharma, 27, finds himself wanting to be available to them around the clock and forgoing a regular sleep schedule as a result. Until recently, he couldn’t monitor them remotely through a phone or smartwatch.

“The cost of the agents’ being blocked for eight hours is way too high,” he says. “They can be done with their work at any point of time, in the middle of the night.”

Founders have long put in punishing hours in the name of building the next big thing. But the growing capabilities of AI agents—and the speed at which the models powering them are evolving—give new meaning to working yourself to the bone…

“They just demand your attention,” he says. “Does it need anything? Can I help it in any way?”

…Pezaris, who lives in San Mateo, Calif., typically works from 7:30 a.m. to 2 a.m. He estimates Proxon, which employs six human developers, is operating 30 times faster than it would without agents. But agent work begets human work: Onboarding customers at a faster clip means needing to respond to more customer requests, for example.

There is also an agent FOMO multiplier effect. “Every minute that I’m not working, I’m missing out on not doing a week’s worth of work,” says Pezaris.

Here is more from Katherine Bindley at the WSJ.  As I have been joking in some of my talks, we need to start taking bets on when the AI leisure dividend will arrive.  It will, but not just yet…

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/the-new-agentic-o-ring-world.html/feed 4 93651 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/has-the-european-turnaround-finally-arrived.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=has-the-european-turnaround-finally-arrived Has the European turnaround finally arrived? https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/968122037/0/marginalrevolution~Has-the-European-turnaround-finally-arrived.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/has-the-european-turnaround-finally-arrived.html#comments Sat, 22 Aug 2026 16:57:33 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93650 Europe just had its best reporting season in years. Companies in the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index boosted earnings per share by 18% on average in the second quarter compared with a year earlier. Earnings barely grew at all in 2025 and 2024 as the strongest companies in the index were offset by weaker players. […]

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Europe just had its best reporting season in years. Companies in the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index boosted earnings per share by 18% on average in the second quarter compared with a year earlier. Earnings barely grew at all in 2025 and 2024 as the strongest companies in the index were offset by weaker players.

Growth is now widening beyond a narrow group of AI and bank stocks, according to Gerry Fowler, who leads the European equity strategy team at UBS. Government spending and private investment in priorities like infrastructure, energy security and defense are creating real opportunities.

The Stoxx Europe 600 is up 10% so far this year, a bit less than the S&P 500’s 12% gain. European stocks have underperformed the U.S. since the mid-2000s, but the gap has narrowed lately.

Here is more from the WSJ.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/has-the-european-turnaround-finally-arrived.html/feed 35 93650 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/saturday-assorted-links-575.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=saturday-assorted-links-575 Saturday assorted links https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/968119715/0/marginalrevolution~Saturday-assorted-links.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/saturday-assorted-links-575.html#comments Sat, 22 Aug 2026 14:17:50 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93641 1. New publication analyzing AI constitutions. 2. Niall Ferguson vs. Iain Banks, and against some other stufff too (TFP). 3. NYT obituary for Victor Niederhoffer. 4. “Engineered systems known as harnesses largely complete contracts in real time, make external work more observable than employment, and carry context and control across the firm’s edge.” (speculative) 5. […]

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]]> 1. New publication analyzing AI constitutions.

2. Niall Ferguson vs. Iain Banks, and against some other stufff too (TFP).

3. NYT obituary for Victor Niederhoffer.

4. “Engineered systems known as harnesses largely complete contracts in real time, make external work more observable than employment, and carry context and control across the firm’s edge.” (speculative)

5. Flypaper effect for AI safety work? A bit unfair, but not altogether wrong either.  Always ponder the possible secondary consequences!

6. Amended results on prediction markets.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/saturday-assorted-links-575.html/feed 18 93641 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/the-end-of-friday-nights-with-friends.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-end-of-friday-nights-with-friends The End of Friday Nights with Friends https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/968116553/0/marginalrevolution~The-End-of-Friday-Nights-with-Friends.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/the-end-of-friday-nights-with-friends.html#comments Sat, 22 Aug 2026 10:26:30 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93642 This study examines how Americans’ time with friends has changed over the week, focusing not on how much social interaction has declined but on when it has. Using American Time Use Survey data from 2003 to 2024 (N = 243,095), I map hourly patterns of “friend time” across the days of the week. In the […]

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This study examines how Americans’ time with friends has changed over the week, focusing not on how much social interaction has declined but on when it has. Using American Time Use Survey data from 2003 to 2024 (N = 243,095), I map hourly patterns of “friend time” across the days of the week. In the early 2000s, social life followed a clear weekly rhythm: Modest weekday interaction built toward pronounced peaks on Friday and Saturday nights. Since the mid-2010s, that rhythm has collapsed. Friday night, once a central site of social activity, now looks like a typical weeknight. Saturday remains elevated but less so than before. Overall, time with friends has fallen by more than half. The mix of social activities, however, has remained stable. Americans have not replaced one form of interaction with another; they have reduced social interaction across the board. These findings point to a temporal reorganization of social life marked by the disappearance of the “night out.”

That is by Neal Caren, via the excellent Kevin Lewis.  So what did you go last evening?

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/the-end-of-friday-nights-with-friends.html/feed 34 93642 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/what-should-i-ask-annie-lowrey.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=what-should-i-ask-annie-lowrey What should I ask Annie Lowrey? https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/968111837/0/marginalrevolution~What-should-I-ask-Annie-Lowrey.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/what-should-i-ask-annie-lowrey.html#comments Sat, 22 Aug 2026 06:37:48 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93643 Yes I will be doing a Conversation with her.  She has a new and very interesting book coming out, namely The Time Tax: How the Government Wastes Our Time―and How to Fix It.  More generally, from Wikipedia: Annie M. Lowrey…is an American journalist who writes on politics and economic policy for The Atlantic. Previously, Lowrey covered economic […]

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]]> Yes I will be doing a Conversation with her.  She has a new and very interesting book coming out, namely The Time Tax: How the Government Wastes Our Time―and How to Fix It.  More generally, from Wikipedia:

Annie M. Lowrey…is an American journalist who writes on politics and economic policy for The Atlantic. Previously, Lowrey covered economic policy for The New York Times and prior to that was the Moneybox columnist for Slate. She was also a staff writer for the Washington Independent and was on the editorial staffs of Foreign Policy and The New Yorker. She is a proponent of universal basic income.

So what should I ask her?

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/what-should-i-ask-annie-lowrey.html/feed 52 93643 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/this-brew-at-least-is-from-ashburn-virginia.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=this-brew-at-least-is-from-ashburn-virginia This brew, at least, is from Ashburn, Virginia https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/968100398/0/marginalrevolution~This-brew-at-least-is-from-Ashburn-Virginia.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/this-brew-at-least-is-from-ashburn-virginia.html#comments Fri, 21 Aug 2026 18:24:37 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93644 The post This brew, at least, is from Ashburn, Virginia appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]> Alpha Ox – Old Ox Brewery | Washington DC Brewery in Ashburn, VA

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/this-brew-at-least-is-from-ashburn-virginia.html/feed 27 93644 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/friday-assorted-links-586.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=friday-assorted-links-586 Friday assorted links https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/968097098/0/marginalrevolution~Friday-assorted-links.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/friday-assorted-links-586.html#comments Fri, 21 Aug 2026 16:03:18 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93634 1. Profile of Julian Gough and his evolutionary cosmology.  And the Substack version. 2. New Spanish-language edition of Bioy Casares on Borges coming out.  The older edition was, among other things, too heavy to lug around or bring on a trip. 3. The market for data is the market of the future. 4. If Uzbekistan […]

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]]> 1. Profile of Julian Gough and his evolutionary cosmology.  And the Substack version.

2. New Spanish-language edition of Bioy Casares on Borges coming out.  The older edition was, among other things, too heavy to lug around or bring on a trip.

3. The market for data is the market of the future.

4. If Uzbekistan were excluded, the damages would look similar to earlier work.

5. James Broughel on capitalizing AI agents.  And more on the same.

6. How calibrated are Kalshi prediction markets?

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/friday-assorted-links-586.html/feed 63 93634 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/breaking-ground-can-refund-bonuses-solve-the-holdout-problem.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=breaking-ground-can-refund-bonuses-solve-the-holdout-problem Breaking Ground: Can Refund Bonuses Solve the Holdout Problem? https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/968087762/0/marginalrevolution~Breaking-Ground-Can-Refund-Bonuses-Solve-the-Holdout-Problem.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/breaking-ground-can-refund-bonuses-solve-the-holdout-problem.html#comments Fri, 21 Aug 2026 11:16:20 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93639 My latest paper (with Cason and Zubrickas) has just been published by the Journal of Urban Economics. We show that refund bonuses can indeed improve the holdout problem. Abstract: The holdout problem presents a pervasive challenge in situations that require the assembly of independently controlled assets, where due to complementarity the combined whole is worth […]

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]]> My latest paper (with Cason and Zubrickas) has just been published by the Journal of Urban Economics. We show that refund bonuses can indeed improve the holdout problem.

Abstract: The holdout problem presents a pervasive challenge in situations that require the assembly of independently controlled assets, where due to complementarity the combined whole is worth more than the sum of its parts. One avenue for addressing holdout problems involves contingent contracts, where agreements are conditional upon reaching a predetermined threshold. This paper reports an experiment to investigate a new refund bonus contingent mechanism, in which asset owners who agree to participate (e.g., sell their asset) receive a bonus payment if the required threshold for project success is not met. The refund bonus eliminates failure equilibria and improves the frequency of successfully reaching the threshold in the symmetric mixed strategy equilibrium. In the experiment, individual asset holders choose each round whether to accept an offer to sell. Multiple owners must accept for the (contingent) sale to materialize, and holdout owners who do not sell can earn more, so the game has the strategic incentives of a volunteer’s dilemma. The data show that the bonus mechanism increases agreements to sell, the frequency of successful projects, and efficiency. By the second half of the experimental sessions, the total number of sales is 35 percent higher and the threshold is met nearly twice as often with the bonus than without.

I also cover this paper in my Refund Bonus (aka Dominant Assurance Contract) Explainer.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/breaking-ground-can-refund-bonuses-solve-the-holdout-problem.html/feed 9 93639 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/rick-rubin-podcasts-with-me-3.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rick-rubin-podcasts-with-me-3 Rick Rubin podcasts with me https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/968079479/0/marginalrevolution~Rick-Rubin-podcasts-with-me.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/rick-rubin-podcasts-with-me-3.html#comments Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:06:17 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93632 Two hours, thirty-four minutes, Rick and I recorded this session not too long ago in Tuscany.  It was everything Rick wanted to ask.  Self-recommending of course, and there is more to come.

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]]> Two hours, thirty-four minutes, Rick and I recorded this session not too long ago in Tuscany.  It was everything Rick wanted to ask.  Self-recommending of course, and there is more to come.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/rick-rubin-podcasts-with-me-3.html/feed 14 93632 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/green-shoots-for-the-uk.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=green-shoots-for-the-uk Green shoots for the UK? https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/968076887/0/marginalrevolution~Green-shoots-for-the-UK.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/green-shoots-for-the-uk.html#comments Fri, 21 Aug 2026 05:24:18 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93640 Early signs of tech-driven improvements in productivity growth could herald a sustained strengthening in the UK’s economic outlook, analysts have said, in a turnaround after years of underperformance. Private sector productivity grew by 1.8 per cent in the second quarter compared with a year earlier, up from 1.2 per cent previously, according to analysis of […]

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Early signs of tech-driven improvements in productivity growth could herald a sustained strengthening in the UK’s economic outlook, analysts have said, in a turnaround after years of underperformance. Private sector productivity grew by 1.8 per cent in the second quarter compared with a year earlier, up from 1.2 per cent previously, according to analysis of official data by investment bank Morgan Stanley.

The rise extended gains since 2024 and reduced the growth gap with the US. The reasons behind the upsurge are heavily contested, but some analysts point to increasing AI adoption in sectors including information technology and business services.

If the recent productivity acceleration can be sustained over years, it could bolster incomes and help alleviate some of the strains on Britain’s public finances.

Here is more from Sam Fleming and Amy Borrett at the FT.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/green-shoots-for-the-uk.html/feed 28 93640 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/more-evidence-on-the-effects-of-recent-tariffs.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=more-evidence-on-the-effects-of-recent-tariffs More evidence on the effects of recent tariffs https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/968075867/0/marginalrevolution~More-evidence-on-the-effects-of-recent-tariffs.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/more-evidence-on-the-effects-of-recent-tariffs.html#comments Fri, 21 Aug 2026 04:41:32 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93635 Trump is giving economists something to write papers about: U.S. tariff rates in 2025 rose to levels not seen since the Great Depression, yet imports increased. To account for the missing trade collapse, we develop an open-economy New Keynesian model with tariff heterogeneity, inventories, and shocks to investment that capture the AI-driven boom. The model […]

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]]> Trump is giving economists something to write papers about:

U.S. tariff rates in 2025 rose to levels not seen since the Great Depression, yet imports increased. To account for the missing trade collapse, we develop an open-economy New Keynesian model with tariff heterogeneity, inventories, and shocks to investment that capture the AI-driven boom. The model matches the untargeted paths of imports, output, and inflation; we use it to decompose the effects of tariffs and the investment boom. Absent the investment boom, imports would have fallen by 10 percent and activity would have contracted by 0.7 percent. The effects of tariffs depend on which goods are tariffed: tariffs on consumption and intermediates act like shocks to supply; tariffs on capital goods act like shocks to demand. The concentration of the 2025 tariff increases on consumption goods and the relative sparing of capital goods limited the damage to output while amplifying the inflationary impulse.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Francesco Ferrante, Andrea Prestipino, Andrea Raffo & Michael E. Waugh.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/more-evidence-on-the-effects-of-recent-tariffs.html/feed 29 93635 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/indian-documentary-covers-ev-winners.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=indian-documentary-covers-ev-winners Indian documentary covers EV winners https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/968064227/0/marginalrevolution~Indian-documentary-covers-EV-winners.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/indian-documentary-covers-ev-winners.html#comments Thu, 20 Aug 2026 18:33:51 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93610 A new short documentary (22 mins) film called The 22nd Century Indian by Shaurya Sinha offers an optimistic take on India, and also covers five (!) Emergent Ventures winners.  Congratulations to them, and to Shruti too. EV India winners featured: Naman Pushp https://x.com/therealnamzoo?s=11 Khushi Mittal: https://khushimittal.com Shreeporna Rao: https://x.com/shreepoorna365?s=11 Samay Sanghvi: https://www.thealmanac.ai/article/samaysanghvii Angad Daryani: https://www.linkedin.com/in/angaddaryani?utm_source=share_via&utm_content=profile&utm_medium=member_ios

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]]> A new short documentary (22 mins) film called The 22nd Century Indian by Shaurya Sinha offers an optimistic take on India, and also covers five (!) Emergent Ventures winners.  Congratulations to them, and to Shruti too.

EV India winners featured: Naman Pushp https://x.com/therealnamzoo?s=11
Khushi Mittal: https://khushimittal.com
Shreeporna Rao: https://x.com/shreepoorna365?s=11
Samay Sanghvi: https://www.thealmanac.ai/article/samaysanghvii
Angad Daryani: https://www.linkedin.com/in/angaddaryani?utm_source=share_via&utm_content=profile&utm_medium=member_ios

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/indian-documentary-covers-ev-winners.html/feed 2 93610 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/thursday-assorted-links-566.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=thursday-assorted-links-566 Thursday assorted links https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/968061266/0/marginalrevolution~Thursday-assorted-links.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/thursday-assorted-links-566.html#comments Thu, 20 Aug 2026 16:02:33 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93630 1. This guy is productive.  Yes very productive. 2. “Mercor is building a network of experienced data scientists for potential future projects with leading AI research organizations.”  And The New Statesman covers the poetry project. 3. How did the English build such beautiful villages? 4. Two Percent Podcast with Tyler Cowen, fifty-two minutes, we discuss […]

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]]> 1. This guy is productive.  Yes very productive.

2. “Mercor is building a network of experienced data scientists for potential future projects with leading AI research organizations.”  And The New Statesman covers the poetry project.

3. How did the English build such beautiful villages?

4. Two Percent Podcast with Tyler Cowen, fifty-two minutes, we discuss “wellness” too.

5. New Fighting Crime podcast.

6. Does New York need new ornamental architecture?

7. Texas Tech update (NYT).

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/thursday-assorted-links-566.html/feed 78 93630 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/there-are-now-eight-episodes.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=there-are-now-eight-episodes There are now eight episodes https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/968052977/0/marginalrevolution~There-are-now-eight-episodes.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/there-are-now-eight-episodes.html#comments Thu, 20 Aug 2026 12:26:13 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93638 The Everyday Abundance podcast explores the hidden histories behind everyday activities and the technologies we don’t even know are technologies. Virginia Postrel and Charles C. Mann dive into the surprising stories behind everything from brushing your teeth to driving your car. Listen, subscribe, and rate us on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon, YouTube, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Here […]

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The Everyday Abundance podcast explores the hidden histories behind everyday activities and the technologies we don’t even know are technologies.

Virginia Postrel and Charles C. Mann dive into the surprising stories behind everything from brushing your teeth to driving your car.

Listen, subscribe, and rate us on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon, YouTube, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

Here is the link, self-recommending of course…

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/08/there-are-now-eight-episodes.html/feed 26 93638