Marginal Revolution https://marginalrevolution.com/ Small Steps Toward A Much Better World Mon, 20 Jul 2026 20:00:27 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/cropped-MR-logo-thumbnail-32x32.png Marginal REVOLUTION https://marginalrevolution.com/ 32 32 42693868 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/the-economic-effects-of-glp-1s.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-economic-effects-of-glp-1s The economic effects of GLP-1s https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/961175846/0/marginalrevolution~The-economic-effects-of-GLPs.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/the-economic-effects-of-glp-1s.html#comments Tue, 21 Jul 2026 06:38:12 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93429 We estimate the causal impacts of GLP-1 treatment on labor market outcomes using linked Danish administrative data and a matched stacked difference-in-differences design. We compare patients who initiate GLP-1 treatment during the first two years of Semaglutide availability to observably similar patients who initiate four years later. We find that GLP-1 treatment reduces long-term sickness […]

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We estimate the causal impacts of GLP-1 treatment on labor market outcomes using linked Danish administrative data and a matched stacked difference-in-differences design. We compare patients who initiate GLP-1 treatment during the first two years of Semaglutide availability to observably similar patients who initiate four years later. We find that GLP-1 treatment reduces long-term sickness leave by 17.3%. We estimate total fiscal benefits of GLP-1 initiation of approximately 1.3–1.5% of annual labor income per employed individual. We do not detect statistically significant or economically meaningful impacts on income, labor force participation, or employment over four years.

That is from a new NBER working paper by N. Meltem Daysal, Camille JH. Fredrickson, Ida L. Kristiansen, Mircea Trandafir & Jonathan Zhang.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/the-economic-effects-of-glp-1s.html/feed 8 93429 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/is-america-ruled-by-an-oligarchy.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=is-america-ruled-by-an-oligarchy Is America ruled by an oligarchy? https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/961151651/0/marginalrevolution~Is-America-ruled-by-an-oligarchy.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/is-america-ruled-by-an-oligarchy.html#comments Tue, 21 Jul 2026 04:34:49 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93431 Any time you hear claims about American government, a sanity-inducing response is to ask whether they also are true of state and local governments.  Here is an excerpt from my latest piece at The Free Press: First, in people’s daily lives, they typically interact with their state and local governments more than with the feds. […]

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]]> Any time you hear claims about American government, a sanity-inducing response is to ask whether they also are true of state and local governments.  Here is an excerpt from my latest piece at The Free Press:

First, in people’s daily lives, they typically interact with their state and local governments more than with the feds. And if you look at what state and local governments do, most of it is driven by voter demand, and I do not mean billionaire or oligarchic voters.

Most state and local government spending goes toward schools, roads, and increasingly, Medicaid. None of those reflect the agendas of most billionaires. For example, Medicaid dollars flow particularly to lower-income recipients. Hospitals and doctors receive income from this program, but reimbursement rates are relatively low, and many of the best doctors do not accept Medicaid patients and don’t make a living from the program.

Somehow the oligarchy saw fit to leave these expenditures alone.  Looking at the state and local level also suggests that America — with some notable exceptions — is better governed than before.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/is-america-ruled-by-an-oligarchy.html/feed 36 93431 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/words-of-wisdom-on-chinese-ai-and-our-responses.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=words-of-wisdom-on-chinese-ai-and-our-responses Words of wisdom on Chinese AI and our responses https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/961093217/0/marginalrevolution~Words-of-wisdom-on-Chinese-AI-and-our-responses.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/words-of-wisdom-on-chinese-ai-and-our-responses.html#comments Mon, 20 Jul 2026 21:11:03 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93435 The strategy for China is obvious: commoditize your complements. Note that Xi explicitly ties openness to AI “moving from the digital world into the physical world”; the physical world is the world dominated by China, and the country’s lead in areas like robotics is going to massively benefit from widely available AI models. Along the […]

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The strategy for China is obvious: commoditize your complements. Note that Xi explicitly ties openness to AI “moving from the digital world into the physical world”; the physical world is the world dominated by China, and the country’s lead in areas like robotics is going to massively benefit from widely available AI models.

Along the same lines, China does not want the U.S. to gain an asymmetric advantage in AI; to the extent that China can weaken the U.S. frontier labs while strengthening any and all potential U.S. adversaries so much the better, and it can benefit from the innovation that will attach itself to an open ecosystem.

And in sum:

The better course is clear: first, loosen Fable and Sol restrictions on cybersecurity, and second, ensure that U.S. open weight model makers are on an equal playing field with China. Yes, the frontier labs will kick and scream about this, but the Administration should realize that listening to their histrionics has led the U.S. to a position where U.S. companies are dependent on China for their defenses. Let the frontier labs win by being better; don’t let them define safety or security, or pull up the ladder of humanity’s collective knowledge. China is already hard enough to compete with; letting them carry the standard for openness and innovation is simply giving away our biggest advantage.

That is from Ben Thompson’s Stratechery (gated, but ungated link here).

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/words-of-wisdom-on-chinese-ai-and-our-responses.html/feed 9 93435 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/monday-assorted-links-569.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=monday-assorted-links-569 Monday assorted links https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/961070234/0/marginalrevolution~Monday-assorted-links.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/monday-assorted-links-569.html#comments Mon, 20 Jul 2026 16:34:14 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93426 1. “In all three countries, declining places displayed higher animosity prior to salient populist campaigns.”  In their tweets. 2. Sunstein on Hayek and conservatism. 3. Jacobian conjecture proved false.  Fable found a counterexample that fits inside a tweet.  From the strawberry guy: “in the areas that the labs are targeting, we’ve achieved artificial super intelligence. […]

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]]> 1. “In all three countries, declining places displayed higher animosity prior to salient populist campaigns.”  In their tweets.

2. Sunstein on Hayek and conservatism.

3. Jacobian conjecture proved false.  Fable found a counterexample that fits inside a tweet.  From the strawberry guy: “in the areas that the labs are targeting, we’ve achieved artificial super intelligence. no single human and perhaps all of humanity could compete with this intelligence. once the model gets good enough at training future models this level of intelligence will spread to all domains.”

4. Redux of my CWT with Emily Wilson on The Odyssey.

5. The Great Awokening had a strong upper-class accent (research from Harvard).  And which immigrants do citizens prefer?

6. Balkan notes.

7. How to sell your edition of The Odyssey (NYT).

8. Profits!

9. CAISI update.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/monday-assorted-links-569.html/feed 97 93426 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/whit-stillmans-metropolitan-that-was-then-this-is-now.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=whit-stillmans-metropolitan-that-was-then-this-is-now Whit Stillman’s *Metropolitan* (that was then, this is now) https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/961043939/0/marginalrevolution~Whit-Stillmans-Metropolitan-that-was-then-this-is-now.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/whit-stillmans-metropolitan-that-was-then-this-is-now.html#comments Mon, 20 Jul 2026 11:25:12 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93428 It is fun to watch/rewatch this 1990 movie circa 2026.  It is about New York City debutantes (CT and the Hamptons too), and how they interact with each other.  The movie is set a bit earlier in time, perhaps in the mid-1980s, though some scenes hearken back to the 1970s.  Of course there is no […]

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]]> It is fun to watch/rewatch this 1990 movie circa 2026.  It is about New York City debutantes (CT and the Hamptons too), and how they interact with each other.  The movie is set a bit earlier in time, perhaps in the mid-1980s, though some scenes hearken back to the 1970s.  Of course there is no social media and no cell phones.  So the characters do look at each other, and talk to each other, the whole time.  People dress up, and social smoking is “a thing.”  There is no hook-up culture, as even casual sex has some sort of social implication.  Women are seen as vulnerable, and the men occasionally punch each other.  People drink.  Throughout various scenes, characters debate Jane Austen, Lionel Trilling, and Buñuel (it was not yet recognized that Mansfield Park is an excellent novel).  But do they read actual novels, or just the literary criticism?  Women can be branded as “sluts.”  Nerds had not yet taken over the world, and there is no Jane Street, though toward the end there is one odd scene where the neon lights rather obviously spell out “ELON” in the upper right side of the screen.  Coincidence rather than time travel, I am sure.  There are no Asians in the group, it seems no Jews, and if anyone is gay he or she remains in the closet.  People of modest income had big apartments, and the so-called wealthy were not very rich at all, though they could afford black tie and white tie attire.

Was everyone happier and better off back then?  Did they have deeper understandings of the world?  Did they treat each other like heartless beasts?  Would you eschew one of their parties and stay at home and scroll Twitter?  You can watch this film and ponder those questions to your heart’s content.  Alternatively, you could go to a debutante ball, which it turns out still exists.  Which of those has been your choice?

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/whit-stillmans-metropolitan-that-was-then-this-is-now.html/feed 60 93428 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/democrats-are-more-politically-segregated-than-are-republicans.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=democrats-are-more-politically-segregated-than-are-republicans Democrats are more politically segregated than are Republicans https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/961014884/0/marginalrevolution~Democrats-are-more-politically-segregated-than-are-Republicans.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/democrats-are-more-politically-segregated-than-are-republicans.html#comments Mon, 20 Jul 2026 05:27:38 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93424 We estimate the extent of workplace political segregation in the United States by merging data covering over 45 million workers. We present four main findings. First, partisans are segregated by workplace. The average Democrat’s coworkers are 11.7 percentage points (pp; 95% confidence interval (CI) [10.6, 12.8]) more Democratic than the average Republican’s. After controlling for […]

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We estimate the extent of workplace political segregation in the United States by merging data covering over 45 million workers. We present four main findings. First, partisans are segregated by workplace. The average Democrat’s coworkers are 11.7 percentage points (pp; 95% confidence interval (CI) [10.6, 12.8]) more Democratic than the average Republican’s. After controlling for geography, industry and occupation, segregation is 2.9 pp [2.7, 3.1], comparable to analogously estimated gender segregation (2.8 pp [2.6, 3.0]). Second, segregation is largest among the politically active (political donors: 14.8 pp [13.2, 16.4] versus non-donors: 11.6 pp [10.5, 12.7]) and those with more market power (senior executives: 14.7 pp [13.4, 16.1]). Third, Republicans experience higher exposure to Democrats than vice versa: the average Republican’s coworkers are 50% Democratic versus 32% Republican for the average Democrat. Fourth, political segregation has changed little over time (2012: 11.1 pp [10.0, 12.2] versus 2024: 11.0 pp [10.0, 12.0]).

That is from a recent paper by Justin Frake, Reuben Hurst, and Max Kagan.  Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/democrats-are-more-politically-segregated-than-are-republicans.html/feed 31 93424 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/emergent-ventures-winners-56th-cohort.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=emergent-ventures-winners-56th-cohort Emergent Ventures winners, 56th cohort https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/961010519/0/marginalrevolution~Emergent-Ventures-winners-th-cohort.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/emergent-ventures-winners-56th-cohort.html#comments Mon, 20 Jul 2026 04:33:26 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93343 Audrey London, Los Angeles, to write a book on water in California. Seyi Oluwasanmi, London, to bring Brits to SF to learn tech. Thomas Haferlach, Berlin, payments and compute layer for the long tail of AI apps. Juan Ramón Egea Fernández, Andalusia, tech. Teo Spiro, Israel, AI and biology. Amitav Krishna, suburban Ontario, 14, quantum. […]

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]]> Audrey London, Los Angeles, to write a book on water in California.

Seyi Oluwasanmi, London, to bring Brits to SF to learn tech.

Thomas Haferlach, Berlin, payments and compute layer for the long tail of AI apps.

Juan Ramón Egea Fernández, Andalusia, tech.

Teo Spiro, Israel, AI and biology.

Amitav Krishna, suburban Ontario, 14, quantum.

Jake Prokopets, 18, Orlando, AI and labor markets.

Wendi Yan, NYC, science and the visual arts.

Luke Peoples, 15, Sydney, to edit the UI directly.

Malwina Lewera, Poland, orbital space debris.

Wilhelm Hedenskog, 18, Gothenburg, Sweden, AI evaluations.

Alex Petropoulos and Max Reddel, Brussels, Preparing Europe for Transformative AI.

Giovanni De Lillo, 17, Naples, multi-agent AI orchestration for regulated enterprise (Hypereum).

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/emergent-ventures-winners-56th-cohort.html/feed 9 93343 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/markets-in-everything-78.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=markets-in-everything-78 Markets in everything? https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/960969716/0/marginalrevolution~Markets-in-everything.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/markets-in-everything-78.html#comments Sun, 19 Jul 2026 19:10:49 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93425 Peter Brook‘s five-hour-plus film adaptation of “The Mahabharata” is set for a BFI Blu-ray release on Aug. 10, presented in high definition from a new 4K restoration of the 1989 production. The release centres on the triptych version of the film, running 332 minutes, which sits between Brook’s three-hour cinema cut and the six-hour television version he shot […]

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Peter Brook‘s five-hour-plus film adaptation of “The Mahabharata” is set for a BFI Blu-ray release on Aug. 10, presented in high definition from a new 4K restoration of the 1989 production.

The release centres on the triptych version of the film, running 332 minutes, which sits between Brook’s three-hour cinema cut and the six-hour television version he shot concurrently. Based on the ancient Hindu epic, the film was originally produced by Brook with screenwriters Jean-Claude Carrière and Marie-Hélène Estienne, and features an international cast drawn from 16 nationalities.

Here is the Variety article, but will there be a version suitable for U.S. players?  The work is highly recommended, real genius.  For the pointer I thank Sam Mendelsohn.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/markets-in-everything-78.html/feed 15 93425 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/sunday-assorted-links-576.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=sunday-assorted-links-576 Sunday assorted links https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/960955706/0/marginalrevolution~Sunday-assorted-links.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/sunday-assorted-links-576.html#comments Sun, 19 Jul 2026 16:25:48 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93423 1. Female promotions and the academic pipeline. 2. NEW MONKEYS. 3. Those new service sector jobs — “One nanny isn’t cutting it anymore. Some parents are spending upward of $250,000 on teams for their children. Luxury services offer potty-training, baby chefs and bike-riding lessons.”  (WSJ). 4. There some English people with the name “Ralph” who […]

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]]> 1. Female promotions and the academic pipeline.

2. NEW MONKEYS.

3. Those new service sector jobs — “One nanny isn’t cutting it anymore. Some parents are spending upward of $250,000 on teams for their children. Luxury services offer potty-training, baby chefs and bike-riding lessons.”  (WSJ).

4. There some English people with the name “Ralph” who simply have decided to pronounce it like “Rafe.”

5. In praise of interns and open research ecosystems.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/sunday-assorted-links-576.html/feed 53 93423 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/building-luxury-homes-is-good-for-the-poor.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=building-luxury-homes-is-good-for-the-poor Building luxury homes is good for the poor https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/960836816/0/marginalrevolution~Building-luxury-homes-is-good-for-the-poor.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/building-luxury-homes-is-good-for-the-poor.html#comments Sun, 19 Jul 2026 11:23:40 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93412 Tej Parikh writing in the FT: …high-end developments unlock long housing chains. As higher-income households move into newly built units, they free up older properties, raising supply and slashing prices for middle- and lower-end housing through a process known as filtering. Numerous international studies underscore this positive ripple effect. One published last year tracked households […]

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]]> Tej Parikh writing in the FT:

…high-end developments unlock long housing chains. As higher-income households move into newly built units, they free up older properties, raising supply and slashing prices for middle- and lower-end housing through a process known as filtering. Numerous international studies underscore this positive ripple effect.

One published last year tracked households that moved into a newly built 512-unit condominium tower in Honolulu, Hawaii. It found that the building created at least 557 vacancies in older and cheaper apartments across the city in just three years, with market-rate units more likely to release the largest chains.

Filtering can also be widespread. A 2021 study in Helsinki using geo-coded population data found that every 100 new market-rate units in the city centre led to around 60 units becoming available in the city’s bottom half of neighbourhoods by income. An analysis across all homes in Sweden over several decades concluded that “new homes, even those initially primarily inhabited by rich people, lead to substantial trickle-down effects that also benefit the poor”.

Other US studies highlight how market-rate developments benefit less well-to-do local residents by lowering housing costs. In San Francisco, a 2021 paper found new developments lowered the risk of eviction notices for residents in rent-stabilised housing. Even “luxury” developments in New York City — which Mamdani has criticised — have been shown to contribute to lower local rents and sales prices.

or David Attenborough:

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/building-luxury-homes-is-good-for-the-poor.html/feed 79 93412 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/cross-ethnic-casting.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=cross-ethnic-casting Cross-ethnic casting https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/960909497/0/marginalrevolution~Crossethnic-casting.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/cross-ethnic-casting.html#comments Sun, 19 Jul 2026 06:29:05 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93421 I complained about the casting of The Odyssey per se (the blind beggar was best), but in general I do not mind cross-ethnic casting.  I am glad Elizabeth Taylor played Cleopatra, Dev Patel played David Copperfield, Denzel Washington played Macbeth, black and Latino actors play white parts in Hamilton, and that Morgan Freeman can play […]

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]]> I complained about the casting of The Odyssey per se (the blind beggar was best), but in general I do not mind cross-ethnic casting.  I am glad Elizabeth Taylor played Cleopatra, Dev Patel played David Copperfield, Denzel Washington played Macbeth, black and Latino actors play white parts in Hamilton, and that Morgan Freeman can play God well (God himself would not be “white,” but God as black is nonetheless a conscious choice), and there was Jessye Norman (among others) singing and playing many traditionally white roles on the opera stage.

Recently in a private conversation I suggested that Nabeel Qureshi be cast as the next James Bond.  He has a British accent, was born in (northern!) England, is tall and is good-looking.  He does not remind anyone of Roger Moore.  He is old enough where you could believe he has some experience as a spy, and at the baccarat table, but young enough where he could do those stunts without it seeming ridiculous.

I recall the talk of a black Bond, a notion which likely would end up dull and cliched.  But a Bond of Pakistani ethnic origin?  Now that would occasion some debate.

I am not saying it always works.  I likely would object to a remake of Zulu with an all-Chinese cast.  Or there can be major cultural mistakes which are not cross-ethnic, such as casting a Liverpudlian in the role of a London elite.  Everyone in The Sopranos should at least be pretending to fit their roles, and indeed Tony himself grew up in New Jersey.  I would have done fine in a cameo role.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/cross-ethnic-casting.html/feed 148 93421 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/how-does-social-media-change-people.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=how-does-social-media-change-people How does social media change people? https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/960901688/0/marginalrevolution~How-does-social-media-change-people.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/how-does-social-media-change-people.html#comments Sun, 19 Jul 2026 04:21:28 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93420 I would not trust the results of this (or any) paper on this topic very much, but it is good to see some inquiry along different dimensions than the usual: Past research explored the beneficial and harmful effects of social media (SM), but no study has investigated how SM might change people’s identities. Authors suggest […]

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]]> I would not trust the results of this (or any) paper on this topic very much, but it is good to see some inquiry along different dimensions than the usual:

Past research explored the beneficial and harmful effects of social media (SM), but no study has investigated how SM might change people’s identities. Authors suggest that SM is a catalyst for a shift in two individual values, achievement and conformity, transforming the fabric of our societies. A difference-in-differences analysis found that countries with higher SM adoption compared to their culturally similar country show an increase in achievement and conformity orientation. Next, authors manipulated SM use and established a causal link between SM use and the activation of achievement and conformity values in Facebook users. These findings were replicated with objective SM usage data, and the pertinent mechanism was explored: people’s SM use increases achievement and conformity orientation through an increased need for approval, particularly for those who self-ruminate. Findings suggest that SM use contributes to the emergence of a societal culture that places an emphasis on achievement-seeking and conformity.

That is by Ertugrul Uysal, Sascha Alavi, and Valéry Bezençon. Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/how-does-social-media-change-people.html/feed 14 93420 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/saturday-assorted-links-570.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=saturday-assorted-links-570 Saturday assorted links https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/960854897/0/marginalrevolution~Saturday-assorted-links.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/saturday-assorted-links-570.html#comments Sat, 18 Jul 2026 15:43:03 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93414 1. How Roman concrete lasted for so long. 2. All restaurants in Germany are worthy of five stars? 3. They are making improvements to Refine. 4. New limits on graduate student visas?  Should we/can we make the PhD three years only? 5.”I need him to make a decision.” 6. Vesuvius scrolls update. 7. “Where will […]

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]]> 1. How Roman concrete lasted for so long.

2. All restaurants in Germany are worthy of five stars?

3. They are making improvements to Refine.

4. New limits on graduate student visas?  Should we/can we make the PhD three years only?

5.”I need him to make a decision.”

6. Vesuvius scrolls update.

7. “Where will we be next year?”

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/saturday-assorted-links-570.html/feed 82 93414 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/trial-lawyers-lobby-against-autonomous-vehicles.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=trial-lawyers-lobby-against-autonomous-vehicles Trial Lawyers Lobby Against Autonomous Vehicles https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/960836795/0/marginalrevolution~Trial-Lawyers-Lobby-Against-Autonomous-Vehicles.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/trial-lawyers-lobby-against-autonomous-vehicles.html#comments Sat, 18 Jul 2026 11:18:18 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93416 Roughly 37,000–40,000 Americans die in auto accidents every year. We now have large‑scale, real‑world evidence—from Waymo and a joint analysis with Swiss Re—that driverless operations can be substantially safer than matched human driving within their current operating domains. The latest data show that over 220 million miles driven, Waymo vehicles–in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Phoenix, […]

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]]> Roughly 37,000–40,000 Americans die in auto accidents every year. We now have large‑scale, real‑world evidence—from Waymo and a joint analysis with Swiss Re—that driverless operations can be substantially safer than matched human driving within their current operating domains. The latest data show that over 220 million miles driven, Waymo vehicles–in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Phoenix, Austin and Atlanta–have 94% fewer serious injuries, 82% fewer air bag deployments, and 93% fewer pedestrian injuries. The evidence is not fully independent, but it is unusually transparent, large‑scale evidence.

So with thousands of lives annually in the balance who is against autonomous vehicles (AVs)? Trial lawyers. Remarkably the trial lawyers saw the writing on the wall very early and the have been lobbying against AVs for nearly a decade! The American Association for Justice, the trial lawyers’ lobby, has been a prominent opponent to AV legislation (see also reports here). (They have been joined by Democrats worried about labor and demanding that heavy trucks be excluded).

The trial lawyers earn a huge amount litigating ordinary auto accidents–Annual U.S. auto insurance payouts (liability + PIP/MedPay) are on the order of $180–220B and trial lawyers are very eager to retain the right to sue car manufacturers for product liability. In my view, product liability isn’t useful as a safety device in this field. Instead, the solution is simple. Every car should be required to be insured, regardless of driver. Indeed, Waymo vehicles are already insured at $5 million liability coverage per vehicle, far higher levels than most human drivers are covered.

The UK’s Automated and Electric Vehicles Act 2018 does basically this–a single insurer covers the vehicle whether the human or the automated system is driving; the victim is compensated directly by the insurer, no need to establish product defect; the insurer then subrogates against the manufacturer if the software was at fault. Victims get paid fast, manufacturers face the cost of their defects through recoveries and premiums, and the high-transaction costs (i.e. lawyer fees!) and messy manufacturer-versus-victim litigation is replaced by insurer-versus-manufacturer bargaining between repeat players who settle efficiently.

The great thing about this system is that insurance almost certainly deters better than tort: fleets generate data that makes experience rating precise, so insurers become continuous safety regulators, whereas litigation delivers a noisy, lagged, lottery like signal depending on safety-irrelevant factors of the jury and the locale.

We have the best data on Waymo, Tesla data is murkier but note how well this works with the insurance system. Let the insurers decide how much to charge Tesla robotaxis and FSD drivers–they will internalize the externality far better than tort lawyers. In short, insurance works great for accident victims but not for trial lawyers. Indeed, if the trial lawyers have their way accident victims will continue to be buried in an invisible graveyard.

Hat tip: Andy Hall and Jon Slotkin.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/trial-lawyers-lobby-against-autonomous-vehicles.html/feed 64 93416 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/what-should-i-ask-luis-garicano.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=what-should-i-ask-luis-garicano What should I ask Luis Garicano? https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/960817145/0/marginalrevolution~What-should-I-ask-Luis-Garicano.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/07/what-should-i-ask-luis-garicano.html#comments Sat, 18 Jul 2026 06:17:43 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=93415 Yes I will be doing a Conversation with him.  From Wikipedia: Luis Garicano Gabilondo (pronounced [ˈlwis ɣaɾiˈkano]; born 1967) is a Spanish economist and politician who was a Member of the European Parliament (MEP) from 2019 to 2022. He was also vice president of Renew Europe and vice president of the European political party Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for […]

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]]> Yes I will be doing a Conversation with him.  From Wikipedia:

Luis Garicano Gabilondo (pronounced [ˈlwis ɣaɾiˈkano]; born 1967) is a Spanish economist and politician who was a Member of the European Parliament (MEP) from 2019 to 2022. He was also vice president of Renew Europe and vice president of the European political party Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE Party). Before entering politics, he was a professor of strategy and economics at IE Business School in Madrid and at the London School of Economics (LSE). After leaving the European Parliament he has returned to academia as a visiting professor at Columbia Business School and at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. In 2023, returned to LSE as full professor at the School of Public Policy.

He is one of the leading European economic liberals, here is his home page.  Here is his Google scholar page.  Here is Luis on Twitter.  he also has a very good book coming out called Messy Jobs, co-authored with Jim Li and Yanhui Wu.  So what should I ask him?

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