Marginal Revolution

Differentiation drives the erosion of positivity on social media

Tyler Cowen — Tue, 30 Jun 2026 21:29:50 +0000

We live in a digital age, where billions of people engage in dialogue within topic-bound communities and threads. In an archival analysis of over 2 billion Reddit comments and an experiment, we show that this dialogue becomes more negative over time. Further analyses suggest that negativity rises over time because social media users seek to make unique comments on the same topic, and it is easier to differentiate oneself through negative comments than through positive comments. As threads and communities evolve, and it becomes more difficult to make unique observations, users turn to negativity. Our studies show how basic human motives interact with the structure of social media platforms, posing an acute challenge for sustaining healthy online dialogue.

Here is the article by Hongkai Mao, et.al. Via the excellent Kevin Lewis. For some of you commenters, how does it feel to be a puppet in the unfolding of this game?

The post Differentiation drives the erosion of positivity on social media appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

Your insinuations are correct and I have nothing of note to add. by John Hawkins
Is it a better world we have where people strive to be unique ... by M
This is negativity bias in action! It’s a lot like the idea ... by Hayden

Tuesday assorted links

Tyler Cowen — Tue, 30 Jun 2026 16:14:14 +0000

1. Korinek, Autor, and Gimbel on AI and jobs (WSJ).

2. New economics job at OpenAI.

3. State capacity as an organizational problem.

4. Alex Ross is stepping down as music critic for The New Yorker.

5. More on the depolarizing effects of current AI.

6. The end of landlines in Finland is pending.

The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to mkt42. I could believe that AI's are currently ... by Pipsterate
In reply to JMM. Echo your sentiment. I still don't like much ... by Victor
In reply to Banana Switchblade. I sure wish I were he, but ... by Glenn Mercer
In reply to Anon. That Anglo-western countries currently ... by bazza
In reply to BC. American borders were universally open to ... by Wayfaring Stranger
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What should I ask Daron Acemoglu?

Tyler Cowen — Tue, 30 Jun 2026 08:32:01 +0000

Yes, I will be doing a Conversation with him. Obviously Acemoglu has published plenty, but likely this chat will focus on his recent writings and pronouncements on AI, and most of all his forthcoming book What Happened to Liberal Democracy? Remaking a Politics of Shared Prosperity. So what should I ask him?

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Comments

I would ask Acemoglu why he links democracy and prosperity so ... by Manfred
In reply to RAD. Actually, I do appreciate your insights ... by rayward
In reply to Naveen_K. Why not rather than mention IQ, talk ... by MyTyrone
In reply to rayward. So far, I trust my own analysis more ... by RAD
I hope that Tyler pushes Deron on his attempted rehabilitation ... by Phil H
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Prediction markets paragraphs to ponder

Tyler Cowen — Tue, 30 Jun 2026 07:17:01 +0000

The oracle is an elaborate Web 3.0 contraption that combines cryptocurrency, voting and game theory in its goal to produce fair judgments. It’s billed by its creators, a company based in Manhattan called Risk Labs, as a “decentralized truth machine.”

But for all its brainiac complexity, the oracle has proved exploitable. Dozens of livid bettors claim the system has been gamed, the handiwork of a budding tech entrepreneur named Lancelot Chardonnet (his name at birth, he says). A look at the Donk debate, which unfolded over nine rancorous days, illustrates how he did it, and the messy, fractious challenge of divining something as nuanced as truth.

When the Bucharest video was first broadcast on April 11, nobody heard “Donk,” and this bet seemed destined to be won by those who bet “no.” Then someone noticed that the caster, who through sheer phonetic coincidence is known as Dinko, had botched “don’t.”

Dinko might have known about the Donk bet, so it’s at least possible that he said the fateful syllable on purpose. It’s even possible he placed money on the outcome. He might have made what linguistics fans would call a voiceless velar stop slip.

Here is more from the NYT.

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Comments

Aren’t all gambling operations “prediction markets?” by Ted Craig
In reply to Gilligan. Yes, some libertarians, like Milton ... by So much for libertarianism
Interesting that, apparently, one of the biggest purported ... by BC
What motivates him to publish and how he thinks about the ... by Joe
In reply to RAD. There is already enough pushback (apparently ... by Gilligan
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Jackson Dahl podcasts with me and Nabeel on aesthetics

Tyler Cowen — Tue, 30 Jun 2026 05:18:44 +0000

Filmed at home, this ran about two hours, and yes that is Nabeel Qureshi, with a cameo from Spinoza toward the very end. From Jackson:

Links

From the episode summary:

Tyler and Nabeel are good friends, and given how prolific Tyler is, I decided to use Nabeel as an entry point and interview them together. We discuss sacred commitments, AI acceleration, mentorship, friendship, and more, but I focused the majority of the conversation on art and aesthetics. Tyler and Nabeel are unlikely aesthetes given their day jobs, but in fact take art deeply seriously. They have a shared love for and similar tastes in art, music, and film, in particular. We discuss strange and beautiful art, aesthetic stagnation, and a wide range of favorites: The Beatles, Mozart, Mondrian, Springsteen, Lana Del Rey, Kanye West, Cassavetes, The Sopranos, Apichatpong Weerasethakul, and more.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?si=wC78q_BeD27XDnLN&v=qPHV-BezoIc&feature=youtu.be

Excerpt:

Tyler: (18:31) I think I’m very mundane in many ways. When Marc Andreessen had that famous tweet about not being too introspective, I know he got slammed for that, but I sympathize with that in many ways. I have my work. I focus on it. I want to go see places I haven’t seen before. That really drives me. I feel pretty well motivated. I do think all kinds of deep thoughts, but to me those deep thoughts feel more superficial than my so-called superficial urges to go around doing things. And I’m fine with that.

…Jackson: (23:25) Do you experience art primarily by thinking or by feeling?

Tyler: (23:29) I don’t even know what those words mean. I experience it by looking at it. I don’t think I have very deep emotional responses. I think it’s pleasure and I feel I learn a lot from it. When I go out and look at other works of art or just the world, I see a lot more than people who don’t live with art. I don’t think I feel that much. I’ve never cried in front of a painting. When I read these accounts of someone seeing a Madonna and weeping, it makes no sense to me. It’s like people who do sports gambling. Why do you do that? There are positive-sum gambles for you. Here are a few.

There is much more of interest, self-recommending!

The post Jackson Dahl podcasts with me and Nabeel on aesthetics appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

Tyler you don't laugh at movies? Watch Anchorman. by Ethan
In reply to Diogenes' Barrel. What makes you think Tyler does ... by Thor
I can't remember being moved to tears by a painting, drawing, ... by Bill Benzon
In reply to Anon. I have quite a low opinion of Andreesen, so ... by Pipsterate
Andreesen got slammed for his ignorance of Western intellectual ... by Anon
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Monday assorted links

Tyler Cowen — Mon, 29 Jun 2026 17:47:16 +0000

1. The great Scott Wheeler on Stephen Sondheim (Free Press).

2. Is space the most underrated policy area?

3. On the USAID and deaths debate. Hardly the final word, but an injection of sanity into what has been a low quality debate. Here is commentary from GPT Pro. In a few years we might have some accurate estimates.

4. Using LLMs in economic history.

5. Measuring economic growth through the valuation of human life.

6. Brooklyn Coffee Shop showcases my book The Complacent Class.

The post Monday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

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5. Thank you for linking – great approach. by dmcharette
In reply to Sure. “Oh spare us the morality plays and the ... by M
In reply to Hazel Meade. M: Ehh, when I've talked with the ... by Sure
In reply to Sure. Oh get off it. Musk hasn't actually ... by Sure
In reply to Hazel Meade. And Hazel, does the case of Golden ... by M
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AI cheating on math econ at Brown

Tyler Cowen — Mon, 29 Jun 2026 16:00:50 +0000

The temptation to use artificial intelligence (AI) to cheat is shaking up elite universities in the United States. Professor Roberto Serrano, who is the Harrison S. Kravis University Professor of Economics at Brown University, has detected a massive fraud in one of the classes he teaches, ECON 1170, an advanced undergraduate course in mathematical economics. He has conclusive evidence that at least 50 students cheated on the March midterm exam, making it the biggest known scandal at Brown and in the entire Ivy League, which brings together the East Coast’s eight most elite private universities, including Princeton, Harvard, Yale, Columbia, Cornell, Dartmouth College and University of Pennsylvania.

When he reported the case to high-ranking officials at Brown, he got a cold reaction. The response from the president, he said, was absolute silence. The dean did not comment either until Serrano took the case before the Academic Code Committee.

Here is the full story, via Anecdotal.

The post AI cheating on math econ at Brown appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to Peter. In 2023, ChatGPT 4 first launched in ... by Niko Davor
In reply to Gilligan. The present academic system selects ... by Niko Davor
These folks have not yet proved they can do it on their own so ... by ed o
In reply to Felix. Curious to hear what the many people who ... by Felix
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Politically Incorrect Paper of the Day: The US Racial Wealth Gap

Alex Tabarrok — Mon, 29 Jun 2026 11:17:37 +0000

Writing in the QJE, Derenoncourt, Kim, Kuhn, & Schularick argue that today’s black-white wealth gap can be explained by differences in initial conditions from over a hundred and fifty years ago, i.e. slavery. But there is an important, and glaring objection: in the age of immigration (1850–1924) millions of whites immigrated to the United States with essentially no wealth and yet they caught up to the “heritage” whites quite quickly and indeed today are richer than heritage whites.

Brian Marein collects and carefully analyzes the data:

Persistent racial wealth inequality in the United States is often attributed to the intergenerational transmission of historical wealth disparities. However, inferring the determinants of long-run inequality from group-level data is complicated by the arrival of 30 million Europeans during the Age of Mass Migration (1850–1924), who are by construction included in average white wealth despite having no direct claim to the wealth accumulated by earlier Americans. This paper accounts for this compositional change in the white population by documenting wealth dynamics among European immigrants and their descendants. Cash-on-arrival data show that immigrants began with substantial wealth deficits relative to the native-born. Yet by the late twentieth century, these deficits had closed, as indicated by comparisons between the descendants of later-arriving Southern and Eastern Europeans and those of longer-established Northwestern Europeans. This pattern implies rapid intraracial wealth convergence, in contrast to the slower convergence observed across racial groups. A stylized model shows that these differences can be largely accounted for by income. These findings demonstrate that large wealth disparities do not mechanically persist when groups have access to comparable economic opportunities.

If initial conditions don’t explain the wealth gap then the most likely explanation is an income and/or savings gaps. I am reminded of an earlier politically incorrect paper of the year by Nathaniel Hilger and see also my review of his book The Parent Trap.

The post Politically Incorrect Paper of the Day: The US Racial Wealth Gap appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to Bufo. Perhaps, but that is contradicted by the ... by Mm
In reply to mdap. The issue with surveys is that you can give ... by Steven
In reply to Moses Taylor. And yet sundown towns were ... by JT
In reply to Anti-Gnostic. No. by JNM
In reply to pnow. ... by Steve Sailer
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Will future biomedical advances be low marginal cost?

Tyler Cowen — Mon, 29 Jun 2026 06:07:10 +0000

Most pharmaceuticals involve high upfront costs, to discover and test the drug, and very low marginal costs. Another pill can be printed almost for free.

That cost structure favors health systems, such as that of Britain, that try to pay lower for services. They can end up getting a relatively good deal from price discrimination. After all, they can be served at low marginal cost, at least for those ttreatments.

Now imagine a biomedical future where many more treatments are based on the sequencing of your individual genome, and then the development of specific treatments personalized to you. Obviously it will depend on developments, but very likely those remedies will have relatively high marginal costs.

In that setting the British approach to health care procurement and pricing will work less well. It is the well-capitalized, “overspending” systems, such as the United States, that will have an easier time making the adjustment.

“The rising relative advantage of well-capitalized health care systems” is a neglected trend, because it makes a lot of earlier elite pronouncements about health care economics look a bit off.

The post Will future biomedical advances be low marginal cost? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to JF. A few can be thousands. That is a few ... by Pshrnk
In reply to Wayfaring Stranger. OTOH, they received ... by Gilligan
In reply to rayward. Rayward: that's a startling claim to say ... by Wayfaring Stranger
In reply to Pshrnk. What could possibly go wrong? It's not ... by JF
In reply to dearieme. ChatGPT-5.5: What treatment categories ... by RAD
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Typewriters and fertility

Tyler Cowen — Mon, 29 Jun 2026 05:06:03 +0000

Workplace technological changes were instrumental in creating new tasks for women over the last century. This paper studies the adoption of the typewriter into US workplaces. Exploiting exogenous variation in typist demand across sectors, I document that the typewriter increased women’s labor force participation, leading to lower rates of marriage and fertility. These developments stemmed from a transition of White women from households into office work and an indirect crowding-in effect drawing Black women into household services. Acting as a “meeting technology,” the typewriter reshaped social interactions, enabling White women to marry above their socioeconomic backgrounds and achieve upward mobility.

That is from a recent paper by Myera Rashid. Via Kris Gulati.

The post Typewriters and fertility appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to Wayfaring Stranger. Men have thick fingers. We ... by Dismalist
Relevant: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Office_at_Night by Etalon d'Silomar
In reply to Steve Sailer. And she married up. by egl
In reply to “Take a Letter Miss Jones”. I always ... by Kaleberg
In reply to Joseph K. The increased female participation in ... by Kaleberg
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Sunday assorted links

Tyler Cowen — Sun, 28 Jun 2026 16:45:28 +0000

1. Why were the Covid vaccine trials so quick?

2. Sumner on Greenspan, Giannis, and more.

3. 100 best books of the 21st century? (NYT).

4. AI and the crisis of classical liberalism.

5. The memory tax, good thing supply is elastic.

6. Is Teortaxes solving for the political equilibrium?

7. Frank Lloyd Wright house for sale in TN for $1.6 million.

The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to Hazel Meade. At the extremes, the R squared ... by dmcharette
In reply to mikeInThe716. I was once on a delayed flight out ... by dmcharette
In reply to Hazel Meade. Proof of his point, presumably. by Gilligan
1. They weren't anywhere near quick enough. by Mark Bahner
3. A rare opportunity to resurrect a bit of pedantry from 26 ... by Steven
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Chloe vs. History

Alex Tabarrok — Sun, 28 Jun 2026 11:16:41 +0000

Excellent use of AI to create relatively accurate and realistic tours through history. Chloe is an engaging and personable guide–a fact of some importance.

Hat tip: Kevin Bryan.

The post Chloe vs. History appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

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My ARC talk on AI and jobs

Tyler Cowen — Sun, 28 Jun 2026 06:46:42 +0000

Twelve minutes long:

“One stop shopping” for why AI will not put everyone out of work.

The post My ARC talk on AI and jobs appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Comments

In reply to john. Tyler is at the same risk longer term, but ... by Todd K
In reply to K.. Maybe a counter intuitive view but I suspect ... by john
In reply to Mark C. Quite a few I would venture to say. After ... by john
In reply to Todd K. Job in energy sector – these things ... by Jeremiah
On the subject of weird service jobs, I have a job that pays ... by Jeremiah
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Renationalising British utilities

Tyler Cowen — Sun, 28 Jun 2026 04:47:14 +0000

There is talk of this with the pending change in PM, but I would not do it. I am quite aware that a) not all of the privatisations went well, and b) American data indicate that state-owned utilities do not seem very economically different than, or less efficient than, privately-owned utilities. Especially for water, where the natural monopoly elements are especially strong.

Nonetheless massive restructuring will be needed to make all of these companies, no matter who owns them, “AI companies.” That will require capital raises and pay scales that will be difficult for the public sector to pull off. So right now renationalisation would be a mistake.

Most generally, I would say the returns to resource mobility will be rising significantly.

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In reply to Philip Lingard. It's worth emphasising that it is ... by Robert
In reply to Jason S.. Possibly true, but also I wanted to ask ... by M
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In reply to bazza. Oh dear. If you are as naive about ... by dearieme
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Blackpool fact of the day, observations on northern England

Tyler Cowen — Sat, 27 Jun 2026 17:56:26 +0000

Blackpool Central was the world’s busiest station in 1911. It was the station with the most platforms to close in UK in the Beeching cuts of 1964.

That is from the recent fun book Lancashire: Exploring the Historic County that Made the Modern World, by Chris Moss. And I enjoyed this paragraph:

I’ve never felt or fully understood the alleged tension between Lancashire and Yorkshire. The latter’s residents have good reason to boast, as they do with gusto, even if the ‘God’s own count(r)y’ schtick is wearisome nonsense. Yorkshire is the UK’s largest county. It has three national parks, two national landscapes (the new name for AONBs) and some of the most dramatic stretches of thePennine range. Like Lancashire, it reaches from the hills to the coast. There are fundamental differences. Lancashire is Irish and Atlantic. East Yorkshire is European and North Sea-facing. Yorkshire is Anglican and past tense. Lancashire is Catholic and forward-looking. Lancastrians go in sideways; Yorkshire men, at least, barge in frontally.

I consider this book to be properly subjective.

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blackpool's got a big one!! ... by seb
Blackpool is a place which encapsulates a lot of the change ... by cumulo nimbus
In reply to inacaféonspiridonov. reddit comment, or maybe we ... by &
“in the Beeching cuts of 1964.” There were none: Dr ... by dearieme
It's Blackstool. by Mrs. Featherbottom
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Marginal Revolution

Differentiation drives the erosion of positivity on social media

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AI cheating on math econ at Brown

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Will future biomedical advances be low marginal cost?

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My ARC talk on AI and jobs

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