Chris Gillett points out something surprising: the US has plenty of electricity generation capacity ready to go, the problem is connecting it to the grid. Grid connection is complicated because on the grid, supply must equal demand at every moment in time. Even without speeding the process, however, we could get more power connected to the grid if we rationalized the ordering of connections.

The main flaw of the interconnection process is that it uses a first-come, first-served queue. This means that high-priority requests can spend years stuck at the back of the line behind other less important ones.

In essence, we have an airport congestion problem in which small Cessnas can bump 747s. Auctions for connection rights are the solution, as pointed out for airports by Vickrey and the classic paper by Rassenti, Smith and Bulfin. Gillett also emphasizes that some loads should be allowed to connect on a flexible basis: if a data center can disconnect or use backup power during the few peak hours each year, it should not have to wait years for firm service.

Gillett also has a very nice explanation of how market prices balance electricity from different sources:

Market prices signal to power plant developers about levels of supply and demand. In the same way, prices balance different energy sources based on the strengths and weaknesses of each. For instance, as more solar panels are built, the value (and therefore price) of power during the middle of the day, when the sun is shining most, adjusts downward. From December 2020 to September 2025, maximum solar output in ERCOT increased from 4 to 29.8 gigawatts. And from 2020 to 2025, the value of power at 1pm relative to the highest-priced hour decreased from 92.9 percent to 38.7 percent. As one technology type becomes overbuilt, prices reflect that and developers react accordingly.

The evolving daily price shape in response to the abundance of solar energy was a signal that the grid needed storage capacity, and power plant developers responded. From 2020 to October 2025, ERCOT went from having almost no battery storage to a combined battery discharge of 8.6 gigawatts. The same process has played out in California and many European markets.

The post Works in Progress: Grid Connection Auctions appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• > battery storage to a combined battery discharge of 8.6 ... by Gilligan
• I don't understand the problem. Why not allow the new capacity ... by Rahul
• Just spitballing here, but it's almost like price is a signal. by duderino
• My sense is that Alex' ideas on the grid are coming from a ... by Wayfaring Stranger
• In reply to Mark C. The issues are not automating studies, ... by Bob
• Plus 2 more...

Related Stories

• Aaron Levie on current implicit AI regulation
• New Business Formation is Surging–Again.
• I am told James Mill is buried there also

 

We now have de facto AI regulation. It’s not obvious why from here on out models that have certain levels of capability or are trained on certain compute sizes won’t have to be reviewed by the government before release.

Realistically, as AI models became more and more powerful this was going to be inevitable (I think it’s too early, but here we are). So now it’s mostly just interesting to think about the implications and scenarios from here. A few would be:

* America gets to control who gets access to frontier intelligence and when. This generally works as long as we remain at the frontier at all times and don’t have a risk of being surpassed. At the moment we have a clear lead in frontier intelligence so this is a good bet, but lots of motivated parties would love to change that.

* This likely creates backlog of AI releases which means that we will see less rapid fire back and forth jumps in model progress. Bull/fine case is that we just get bigger step functions per release at a slower rate and we end up at the same point we would have. Bear case is those incremental smaller jumps were necessary for the continued flywheel of innovation.

* Other countries likely have even more incentive to at least hedge their bets with sovereign AI strategies so aren’t dependent on access to US AI all times. Previously this was relatively moot because the alternative wasn’t good enough, but that could change out of necessity and what we’re seeing in China.

* Open weights obviously a big winner here as it becomes what likely sovereign AI gets built out on, and what (for now) can still be released to the market without the same controls. One interesting question would be how regulation eventually extends to open models, which would have its own set of long term consequences.

Anyway some big updates to everyone’s mental models of AI regulation as a result of the capabilities we’re now seeing in AI. Wild times.

Here is the link.  I would say I have long thought something like this was coming, but am pleased we got in so much early progress “under the wire” up until now.  And here is more from Aaron.

The post Aaron Levie on current implicit AI regulation appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to rayward. Rayward, you’re closer to the answer ... by Raige
• In reply to Hmm. The tech world has been dealing with export ... by Gilligan
• In reply to Mark C. Basically correct, but AI tools can help ... by mkt42
• In reply to Aaronn. >What is the equilibrium here? 1) Net ... by Gilligan
• How well will it work for the US given that best open-weights ... by Aaronn
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• California’s Gay Certification Program
• Bastiat’s telephone?
• My Conversation with Dave Baszucki

 

More than 2 billion people participate annually in Ramadan fasting, making its potential effects on cognitive performance important for workplaces, education and high-stakes decision-making. We study these effects in tournament chess, an incentivised, real-world cognitive task in which move quality can be evaluated objectively by a strong chess engine. We analyse nearly 300,000 games and more than 25 million moves played by almost 10,000 expert players from 178 countries over 10 years. Two validation exercises support our Muslim-status classification, covering almost 11% of the sample and survey evidence indicates substantial Ramadan fasting compliance among Muslim chess players. In the preferred intention-to-treat specification, using pre-game controls, player fixed effects and year-month fixed effects, we find no impact of Ramadan fasting on Muslim players’ overall move quality or shares of optimal and nearly optimal moves, with tightly bounded estimates around zero. Muslim players make 0.13 additional percentage points of large errors during Ramadan, but this small estimate is fragile across alternative measures, samples, Muslim-status definitions, fasting-compliance adjustments and event-study diagnostics, with no evidence of heterogeneous effects, selection bias, or compensatory behavioural adjustments. We conclude there is little robust evidence that Ramadan fasting broadly impairs cognitive performance among expert chess players.

That is from a recently published paper by Samuel Buckland and David Smerdon.  Some claim that people think best when they are just a wee bit hungry?

Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

The post Does fasting harm cognitive performance? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Pipsterate. ... by SeldomSeemly
• In reply to mkt42. I've heard so much BS about water ... by Wayfaring Stranger
• In reply to Joseph K. You don’t immediately go into ... by Pharoh
• In reply to Wayfaring Stranger. There are very few coaches or ... by mkt42
• In reply to Gene de Murro. Also difficult for Moslem NBA ... by mkt42
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• New Business Formation is Surging–Again.
• I am told James Mill is buried there also
• GLP-1 drugs and marriage

 

Railways are a golden thread in the history of cricket, making national competition possible in every current Test-playing nation (with the exceptino of the West Indies and Afghanistan).  In later years, we will see railway workers as exporters of cricket to Scotland and Wales and beyond to Britain’s formal and informal commercial empires.  We will see enduring railway-based teams, including in Pakistan the winners of cricket’s most comprehensive first-class victory.

That is from Richard Heller and Peter Oborne, Full Circle: A History of Cricket.  And I had not realized this: “As recently as 1945, 98 percent of Australians had their family origins in Great Britain or Ireland.”

The post Cricket and the railways appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Antipodean Lurker. My dad was born in Australia ... by stasi
• In reply to Hoosier. Is basketball popular in Western Europe? ... by M
• In reply to Glowup. Only “full-blooded” aboriginal people ... by Unanimous
• Actually Britain and America don't have much sport in common. ... by cumulo nimbus
• In reply to Quantitative Sneezing. Probably not, aboriginals ... by Glowup
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• *The Migrants: A Memoir with Manuscripts*
• The Free Press summer reading list
• I am told James Mill is buried there also

 

2. Is it London brutalism if it has plants?

3. The Russian stock market.

4. Which states are trying to deny AI personhood?

5. Chinese political lookism?

6. Recommended songs from the 1960s.

7. Bryan Caplan on UATX.

8. Lawsuit on Fable 5 issues.

The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Josh. That strikes me as quite a stretch to avoid ... by anonprof
• In reply to Ska. 60's was the golden age for popular music. ... by surfie
• In reply to Steve. Note quite, Ivan, er Steve. Down almost ... by Mike in TX
• I thought Whiter Shade of Pale was about a drunken and/or ... by TWBC
• In reply to anonprof. Isn’t that the point? His position is ... by Josh
• Plus 10 more...

 

Business formation first jumped in 2020 as the pandemic reorganized work, shopping and logistics. After the pandemic ended, business formation leveled off, but it did not return to its old path. It remained historically high. Moreover, in the past 18 months or so business formation has surged again. Registered Agents Inc tracks new Articles of Organization or Incorporation filed in the 50 states and they report:

Every month in 2026 has set a new formation record, including March, which stands as the highest single-month total in the history of the Business Formation Report. Through May, 2.9 million new businesses have been formed nationwide, the strongest five-month start on record.

Stripe Economics agrees and calls this the age of the solopreneur.  Among businesses using Stripe, recent cohorts are reaching serious transaction volumes faster than earlier cohorts.

The share of businesses (not just solopreneurs) reaching $1 million in cumulative revenue within a year after going live on Stripe was roughly 30% higher for the 2025 cohort as it was for the 2023 cohort, and it was roughly 3x higher for the 2025 cohort than the 2019 cohort.

Furthermore, the trend is not just in the United States. France, where, as the story goes, they have no word for entrepreneur, has also seen business creation reach record levels, driven heavily by micro-entrepreneurs.

The most likely explanation is the devolution of power. A single person armed with Stripe, Shopify, cloud software, automated bookkeeping, and now AI can do what once required a small staff. Dynamism had been on a long secular decline, but we may now be seeing the early stages of an experimental economy—one in which far more people can test ideas, reach customers, and launch firms, some of which will grow very large, very fast.

The post New Business Formation is Surging–Again. appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Bernhard Scholz. “- Military context (16th ... by Wayfaring Stranger
• In reply to BC. Bush Jr. was famous for his subtle sense of ... by Old Programmer
• Affordable, easily secured health care would probably do as ... by NaOH
• A related paper, “Firm Entry and AI Exposure: Evidence from ... by Guillermo
• Another likely explanation is people getting fired and forming ... by Kaleberg
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• Elderly Health and Longevity in the US
• Does fasting harm cognitive performance?
• I am told James Mill is buried there also

 

St. Mary’s Abbot’s Church in Kensington.

The post I am told James Mill is buried there also appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to dearieme. Are they keeping it up? Might come in ... by TMC
• In reply to Student. “To protect his … global reputation, ... by dearieme
• In reply to Dr. D. Did the Republic of California last long ... by dearieme
• In reply to dearieme. There was one in Paris near the Place ... by Dr. D
• My favourite London “Goodness me” was chancing across the ... by dearieme
• Plus 5 more...

Related Stories

• Alan Greenspan, RIP
• Works in Progress: Grid Connection Auctions
• Does fasting harm cognitive performance?

 

I think this is the Cursor moment for academia.

The Stanford REAP team has made their move, http://CoPaper.AI is mass-terminating the manual labor of traditional empirical papers. Link: https://copaper.ai/landing

If using large models to write papers before was just about polishing and compiling references for you, then this Project from Professor Ross Griebenow’s team at Stanford is like dropping a nuclear bomb in the empirical circles of social sciences and economics.

The greatest truth is the simplest; the heaviest sword has no edge. Its functions are straightforward. Feed in the raw dataset, and within 30 minutes, it can generate a complete DOCX paper complete with full Stata/R code and publication-quality charts.

It chains together EDA, variable definition, econometric model building (from OLS to advanced DID, regression discontinuity, causal forests) all using an Agent workflow.

Every chart it produces comes with 100% reproducible Stata, R, EViews source code underneath. How many low-quality paper mills and data drones’ jobs will this smash?

Data drones and paper ghostwriters are collectively facing unemployment countdown. Because from now on, for social science papers, AI handles all the entropy-increasing drudgery—humans only need to define the problem.

Here is the link.  Mostly that is not true, so perhaps the Chinese are trying to demoralize us.  But will it never ever be true?  In two years be true?  Less?

The post Translated from the Chinese appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Sidd. It would already be a big improvement if ... by Rahul
• In reply to Rahul. Depends on the field. Every mathematician ... by Sidd
• In reply to L. Isn't he just saying the simplicity and brute ... by Sidd
• This has been possible since December 2025. Just set up ... by Aaronn
• In reply to Wayfaring Stranger. I agree. LLMs could be the ... by Rahul
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• Alan Greenspan, RIP
• How research in math will change (from my email)
• My Conversation with Dave Baszucki

 

Do not focus the discourse on aliens, rather focus on whether the phenomena are real.  If they are confirmed as real, as many insiders insist, they we can return to debating what they might be.  And focusing on concrete evidence is something a committee can be relatively good at.  Trying to find agreement on “aliens” does not fall into that same category.

The post What should the UAP Scientific Advisory Board do? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• Bored you mean. by dada merveilleux
• I have always found it interesting that a supernatural ... by B.B.
• In reply to anonprof. I'm not really sure what your argument ... by Anti-Gnostic
• Prediction: the UAP investigation will determine that 90-odd ... by JCambias
• Mick West for Conversations with Tyler by luzh
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• Works in Progress: Grid Connection Auctions
• Aaron Levie on current implicit AI regulation
• Is the UK improving?

 

2. Why is China still exporting T-shirts?

3. Greenspan and Keynes crossed paths in 1944.  Clarinet!

4. Robert Shiller opposes AI negativity (NYT).

5. The opportunity cost of Trae is really not that large.  Think in terms of opportunity cost here, not “cost.”  By the time the Wizards need to up the pay of their younger players, Trae’s contract will be expiring.

6. “A new bill seeks to restrict who can and cannot teach a course at the California State University’s 22 campuses. The criterion, though, is pretty simple: to be a professor, you must be human.“

The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Todd K. The ability of so-called “artificial ... by Someone with common sense
• In reply to Wayfaring Stranger. “Based on what previous ... by Todd K
• In reply to Mike. No other team was going to offer within a ... by Ben
• 6. You mean we don't have to be gay to teach in CA?! by Franzish
• In reply to Tom T.. > hold down wages by restricting worker ... by European Troll
• Plus 10 more...

 

GLP-1 medications generate large weight loss and may also alter social and economic outcomes. Using the Understanding America Study, I compare women starting GLP-1s for weight loss with matched women who would like to start a GLP-1 but have not. Single women’s marriage/cohabitation rates rise by 29 percentage points and employment among baseline non-employed women rises 27 percentage points after six or more quarters. Existing partnerships do not dissolve, and already-employed women show no upward job mobility. The pattern suggests that part of the female obesity penalty operates at new-match formation rather than only through health or incumbent productivity.

Here is the paper by Rebecca Diamond.  And here is a thread on the paper.  And not everyone believes the size of these estimates.  I do not find them so crazy?  Here is Steven’s dialogue with GPT.

The post GLP-1 drugs and marriage appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Patrick. I would simply live in a perfectly ... by Agorabum
• In reply to Thanatos Savehn. And people say that poetry is ... by Agorabum
• In reply to Patrick. “Or, don't make the idiotic decision ... by Marie
• In reply to Phil S.. Yes. Anything that helps with any ... by Pipsterate
• In reply to Gilligan. This used to be the norm for much of ... by Aretino
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• Elderly Health and Longevity in the US
• Does fasting harm cognitive performance?
• New Business Formation is Surging–Again.

 

Guilherme Pinho, Sao Paulo, real estate titling and transactions in Brazil.

Diyar Zhakpelov, Astana, Kazakhstan, 17, exam prep app for Kazakhs, general career support.

Randy Chang, AI policy writings, Ontario/Chapel Hill.

Jesse Casana, Dartmouth, archaeology tranche, “Drone-acquired synthetic aperture radar (SAR), a novel and experimental technology, reveals remarkable perspectives on buried archaeological landscapes in the desert southwest.”

Gia-Bao Dam, New Haven/Yale, longevity research.

Sasha Lempers, Annecy, France, 15, math and AI.

Ali-Mansur Valiyev, Harihar Rengan, Dubai, high school, general career support, educational testing.

Raiani Romanni-Klein, Boston/Cambridge, a non-profit on the implications of biological innovation.

Clara Collier, Oakland, Asterisk magazine.

Scott Ellis, Mississauga, science education tranche, biographies of scientists on YouTube.

Jim Olds, northern Virginia, writings on science policy, science education tranche.

The post Emergent Ventures winners, 55th cohort appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• Is it okay that when I saw ‘Asterix’ I was secretly hoping ... by dmcharette
• Asterisk. Remarkable how similar it seems in tone to the old ... by Public Choice
• > Asterisk Magazine If they are trying to write about policy ... by Stendell
• Yay Clara Collier! by Andy

Related Stories

• Translated from the Chinese
• My Conversation with Dave Baszucki
• A Cohort Perspective on Latin America’s Fertility Transition

 

2. Benny Goodman and Lionel Hampton doing “I Got Rhythm.”

3. Claims about advancements in cancer testing.

4. Reconstructing Welles’s Don Quixote?

5. The obesity penalty in political elections.

6. Zvi on GLM-5.2.

7. New work by Mozart.  And more information here.

8. Chad Jones going on leave to Anthropic.

The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• #4 – given the existing footage, the screenplay, and other ... by Scott Mauldin
• In reply to Ai. This is a simple and gross generalization ... by What's the frequency Kenneth?
• In reply to Rebes. Very under underrepresented in society. Is ... by Paulo
• In reply to Nick A. They seriously could! And the awesome ... by Dzhaughn
• #7. The second link is to news from 2024… by Nick
• Plus 10 more...

 

China has made biotechnology a strategic national priority, systematically expanding its clinical research infrastructure with government backing, streamlined regulatory pathways, and sustained investment. In 2021, China’s global share of Phase 1 trials surpassed the United States’ share for the first time, a milestone that would have seemed unlikely just a decade earlier. And in 2024, China surpassed the United States in the total number of clinical trials registered, with over 7,100 registered, representing 39% of global trials…. For certain cutting edge modalities, including cell and gene therapy, radioligand therapy, and stem cell therapy, China uses investigator-initiated trials to provide additional flexibility, though with some tradeoffs around oversight and quality control. This means that drugs can move into human testing if a researcher has an interest and funding. In the U.S., comparable trials might wait years to start.

I am also pleased to see that they mention Australia, another advanced democracy, as a leader in clinical trial regulation:

Australia’s Clinical Trial Notification System allows trials to begin in fewer than 70 days after a final protocol is submitted, with regulatory approval granted in as little as 21 to 28 days and sites activated within 6 to 12 weeks.

Keep those comparisons in mind. Operation TrialBlazer proposes some good reforms such as CMC clarification. CMC is Chemistry, Manufacturing, and Controls–and it deals with the basics of manufacturing a drug. The FDA, however, is very risk averse and companies know that so they have often gone overboard in CMC: for example, proving stability of a formula at 6+ months when the trial is to last only a few weeks or documenting their full commercial manufacturing process before they even know if the drug works and knowing full-well that the process will be changed many times before a drug actually gets to market. In short, a lot of cost for very little benefit. The FDA is now clarifying that this kind of thing is not necessary. Good, that is low-hanging fruit. There are other good ideas as well.

But note what they are not proposing. Despite using China and Australia as exemplars they are not going down either path. Where China is fastest is in cell therapy, gene therapy, radioligand, and stem cell work and in these areas, China lets trials proceed on an investigator-initiated basis: as the TrialBlazer document puts it, a drug can move into humans “if a researcher has an interest and funding.” China then combines this open (or lax) front end (for these products) with an all-of-government industrial policy to accelerate winners.

The US is declining to go down that path. Ok, not my call, but I get it. But they are also declining to follow Australia. In Australia there is also no government prospective regulatory evaluation of most early-phase clinical trials. Under the Clinical Trial Notification (CTN) scheme, the sponsor submits their protocol package to a Human Research Ethics Committee (HRECs)–Australia’s IRBs–and once the ethics committee approves, the sponsor notifies the regulator, the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA), and pays a fee. The TGA does not read and clear the package before the trial starts. The roughly 21-to-28-day “approval” and sub-70-day start figures in the document are fast precisely because the regulatory step is not an evaluation. The government regulator stays out of the front end for most clinical trials, although in direct contrast with China it does step in for the highest risk biologicals. China has decided, high-risk, high-reward.

Australia does certify the certifiers, the HRECs. Europe uses a similar system for medical device approval. It’s a system proposed by former medical officer at the FDA Henry Miller and one I have long supported for the US. China is more laissez-faire.

The US architecture in contrast rests on the “gold standard” FDA reviews and the “FDA will retain full regulatory authority and decision-making.” In short, all of the TrialBlazer reforms are about making the gatekeeper faster, cheaper to prepare for, and less uncertain. None of it is about getting rid of the gatekeeper.

Addendum: Full disclosure, I did some consulting with ARPA-H on related work. See also my previous post on the a radical deregulatory approach, Montana’s SB535 and a Potential Biotech Renaissance in America

The post Two Roads to Fast Clinical Trials, and the US Takes Neither appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to rayward. Great points, however a few ... by Ari T
• “Australia does certify the certifiers, the HRECs. Europe ... by skyzyks
• In reply to Wayfaring Stranger. I know, right? Also rather ... by zardoz
• In reply to Public Choice. So… because the restrictive ... by zardoz
• In reply to rayward. Yep that’ll help get us more miracle ... by Kyle
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• Elderly Health and Longevity in the US
• Works in Progress: Grid Connection Auctions
• Aaron Levie on current implicit AI regulation

 

From a very credible Labour source:

– Wes Streeting promised the Chancellorship for not running.

– Capital gains raised to match income tax. Possible exit tax.

– Economic focus: devolution, plus state ownership of cost-of-living essentials (energy, water, transport).

– Nothing on AI or tech, bar higher capital gains and an EIS/SEIS-style relief for backing British businesses. (Spoiler: startups now incorporate in Delaware and raise on SAFEs. I’ve done 60+ angel investments; only two were eligible.)

Andy and Wes don’t seem to grasp that tech has been the core engine of growth for 20 years, and AI will only accelerate that.

So why would any founder build here? How does the UK compete with the US and China on AI? Where does growth actually come from?

The world economy is changing fast, and we need to be ready to thrive in it, not just survive.

I really hope this admin appoints some figures who actually get what’s happening. Losing business support early, from a disastrous first budget, was the beginning of the end for Starmer.

So, in a nutshell, no, the UK is not improving.

The post Is the UK improving? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Brett Dunbar. Disgruntled white Scottish and ... by SJ
• In reply to SJ. The leave vote was dominated by the ... by Brett Dunbar
• In reply to florian albert. That is absolutely wrong. And ... by Brett Dunbar
• In reply to Brett Dunbar. Like I said, there are not enough ... by florian albert
• In reply to derek. Sounds like a fine idea as well, but ... by CB
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• What should the UAP Scientific Advisory Board do?
• Alan Greenspan, RIP
• California’s Gay Certification Program