Marginal Revolution

Bastiat’s telephone?

Tyler Cowen — Sun, 21 Jun 2026 19:09:27 +0000

Oakland has seen a 37% decrease in car break-ins over the last year.
What’s good news for car owners is less so for repair shops that specialize in window and windshield replacements.
Multiple businesses have reported a sharp decline in their income as a result.

Here is the article, via Air Genius Gary Leff.

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Comments

This is probably a minority viewpoint, but after too many years ... by Grizzled Econ 101 Prof
To get a Keynesian stimulus we should defund the police. by Dismalist

Sunday assorted links

Tyler Cowen — Sun, 21 Jun 2026 16:00:58 +0000

1. “Cuba se abre al capitalismo y aprueba su mayor reforma en décadas: banca privada, mercado de cambios y fin de los subsidios.”

2. Short TV clip of me on the Brazilian economy.

3. Patrick Collison on Paris.

4. “Thrilled to announce the inaugural cohort of the 1991 Fellowship @mercatus. Meet some of the most talented and creative minds working on challenging policy problems at the state level in India.” Link here.

5. AI has won another literary prize.

6. Roon on worship. Roon is one of our best thinkers.

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Comments

3. Patrick Collison on Paris. …how many of the nicest built ... by RAD
In reply to Neurotic. It was definitely evident six years ago. by MikeP
In reply to Neurotic. It depends on the shape and substance ... by RAD
In reply to Liface. You need to read him in the German ... by MikeP
In reply to Kaz Stanczak. “force,” “worship,” ... by Evolutionist
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Labor market effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

Tyler Cowen — Sun, 21 Jun 2026 06:53:30 +0000

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 represents the most significant reform of the U.S. income tax code since the Tax Reform Act of 1986. Previous analyses of the TCJA’s economic impact often rely on estimates based on data prior to the enactment of the legislation. This paper leverages plausibly exogenous variations in state-level tax changes brought about by the TCJA and employs local projections with two-way fixed effects to examine its effects on the labor market. Measures of TCJA tax shocks are constructed with the NBER-TAXSIM model using state-level tabulations of individual income tax returns from the Statistics of Income (SOI). Our findings suggest that tax cuts amounting to 1 percent of Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) under the TCJA are associated with a 0.7–1 percentage point increase in the labor force participation rate (LFPR) and a 0.8–1.5 percent increase in payroll employment over the two years following the TCJA’s implementation. These results appear broadly robust to assumptions about heterogeneous state responses and the inclusion of interactive fixed effects.

That is from a newly published article by Anil Kumar. Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

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Comments

In reply to Okay. As regards, inflation as a tax on saving ... by D
In reply to Scott Sumner. As opposed to every other tax cut ... by Wayfaring Stranger
The supply side effects were probably good, but the tax cut was ... by Scott Sumner
The paper strikes me as additional support for dynamic scoring ... by Vivian Darkbloom
In reply to Gilligan. The paper implies nothing regarding the ... by Vivian Darkbloom
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Music markets remain deglobalized

Tyler Cowen — Sun, 21 Jun 2026 05:10:46 +0000

It might seem surprising, in a world of global stars, that the 6m Danes, many of whom are fluent in English, listen mainly to homegrown music. And until fairly recently they did not. In 2019 only five songs in Denmark’s top 20 were in Danish. By last year the figure was 18.

A similar trend is under way in other countries—and in other forms of entertainment. From Asia to the Americas, music charts are increasingly dominated by local sounds. Hollywood television-streaming companies are commissioning more local productions in foreign markets, causing consumption of American shows to fall. Social networks are connecting the whole world, but so far people are mainly using them to consume local content. And as video gaming expands, it too is becoming increasingly tailored to local cultures…

In 2023 Will Page and Chris Dalla Riva noted in a London School of Economics paper that a number of European countries including France, Germany, Italy and Poland had seen rising domestic shares of their top tens in the preceding decade. Since then the phenomenon seems to have spread. Mr Page, formerly chief economist at Spotify, finds that 55% of streams of songs in Sweden’s top 20 last year were in Swedish, up from 29% in 2019. Norway’s figure rose from 13% to 38% in the same period.

That is from The Economist, and of course it echoes themes from my earlier Creative Destruction: How Globalization is Changing the World’s Cultures. And Brazil most of all?

Latin America has gone the same way (see chart 1), Brazil astonishingly so: in the first week of June 96 of the top 100 artists on YouTube Music in the country were Brazilian (foreigners included Justin Bieber and Michael Jackson). Last year Thailand had a solidly local top ten, while Indonesia and the Philippines each had eight local tracks in their respective charts; Nigeria’s top ten were all local, as were nine of South Africa’s, according to the IFPI, which represents the recorded-music industry.

The same trends are happening for television as well, albeit less radically.

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Comments

More evidence of the decline of American pop music. Of course, ... by Ai
In reply to Daniel Canueto. 1) there isn't much incentive to ... by Gilligan
Music will always bring people together unless some corrupting ... by chuck
In reply to abitoftruth. I can think of many more things to ... by Anti-Gnostic
Orchestras speak a common language. I can watch/listen to ... by rayward
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My aesthetics podcast with Benjamin Lima

Tyler Cowen — Sat, 20 Jun 2026 17:57:03 +0000

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0HBFWS1avb6tYY1IoLefYb

Web: https://athenaeumreview.org/podcast/aesthetics-a-conversation-with-tyler-cowen/

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/aesthetics-a-conversation-with-tyler-cowen/id1509089416?i=1000773451248

Here is basic information about art scholar Benjamin Lima, it was great fun for me to do this one.

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Comments

In reply to Indoor Camping. 1) Great comment – applies to ... by dmcharette
This New Aesthetics thing is good, my main concern is that it ... by luzh
Enjoyed throughout but Ben needs to be more courageous and ... by Imtiaz
I would put Antonio Lopez Garcia above Kentridge, Kiefer, ... by Benjamin
Huge admirer of Ben Lima. When someone as revered as Tyler ... by Indoor Camping

Cuba

Alex Tabarrok — Sat, 20 Jun 2026 16:17:05 +0000

The Miami Herald

Some of the most impactful measures announced by Cuba’s Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Thursday include allowing:

Private and foreign capital to purchase and sell fuel

The creation of private corporate banking

Private business owners to own more than one company and hire more than 100 workers

Private businesses in agriculture and tourism

Tourism property sales, evaluated case-by-case, for Cubans resident in the country and abroad

Foreign investors to hire workers directly

Foreign investment in Old Havana and other tourist spots, in state telecom ETECSA data centers, mobile networks, and other digital infrastructure

The extension of surface rights up to 99 years and leases up to 50 years for foreign investments

Real estate development in tourism

Farmland lease rights for an “indefinite period”

Wholesale and retail trade without limits by foreign entities

The sale of state assets and state companies’ shares to the private sector and foreign companies.

Taken together, the reforms proposed significantly expand the private sector six decades after Cuba’s communist leaders forbade all private business—even frita stands— and adopted a centrally planned economy model that ended up ruining the country and dragging Cubans into a severe humanitarian crisis. Currently, the government is in such dire straits that it is even seeking to transfer the management of the country’s zoos and aquariums to private hands, another announced change.

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Comments

In reply to Mark Bahner. Lord Ismay, firs General Secretary ... by Dismalist
This would be good if all those Cubans in the US would now go ... by Anon
In reply to rayward. Batista was so horrible, Cubans ... by Mark Bahner
In reply to Gilligan. I've long maintained that the highest ... by Mark Bahner
In reply to mkt42. If they reintroduce US capital into the ... by Marian Kechlibar
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Saturday assorted links

Tyler Cowen — Sat, 20 Jun 2026 15:57:22 +0000

1. Do weird corporate governance structures work well?

2. Are elite economists overpaid? Elite economists conclude no.

3. Dialog.

4. Are you in the weights?

5. Inside the world’s first AI art museum (Los Angeles).

6. Redux of my 2023 post on AI and existential risk.

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Comments

In reply to Scott Gustafson. Isn't that called “the stock ... by Sparky
In reply to EBUG. I work very hard to not show up online and ... by Hmm
In reply to RAD. Andrew Gelman has a current post that ... by Bill Benzon
In reply to MikeP. I would say that nearly all people ... by ElsieT
#6 As I said then, AI is more likely to save us than condemn ... by Frank
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The Free Press summer reading list

Tyler Cowen — Sat, 20 Jun 2026 06:58:54 +0000

I was asked to nominate so here goes:

Free Press columnist Tyler Cowen picks a biography of one of the finest poets of the 20th century, Paul Celan: A Life, by Anna Arno.

Could Celan be the very best poet of all time? When read in the German language, I think he might be. When read in English, he is still very good. No one has a poetic topic of more importance than the Holocaust. Contrary to Theodor Adorno, he decided it was possible to write poetry after it, and he took that mission very seriously.

Now we finally have a first-rate biography. Celan’s mother was killed in the Holocaust, and he took his own life in 1970, drowning himself in the Seine. How did he get to that point? How did he have the strength and wherewithal to write such powerful poetry in the first place?

I found this book gripping from start to finish. Given the topic I cannot call it a “fun” read, but it is absorbing and the translation is very accessible.

Is it possible that Anna Arno is one of our best intellectuals today? She has written on the German painter Paula Modersohn-Becker and the Polish writer and activist Konstanty Jeleński, and has done important work as a translator, including of Henry James—though those works are in Polish, and thus inaccessible to me. Can we get translations as soon as possible? In the meantime, you can start with this one.

The article has many other quality selections as well.

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Comments

In reply to Vivek Iyer. You are not wrong to defend him as a ... by Frank D
In reply to MikeP. I don't know why your comment disappeared, ... by MikeP
In reply to Vivek Iyer. Could Vivek Iyer be the very best ... by MikeP
In reply to Frank D. Not in this particular case because of ... by Vivek Iyer
In reply to Tomob. No, not most insane, but does tell you ... by gimmeabreak
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Adrian Wooldridge on Sweden and liberalism

Tyler Cowen — Sat, 20 Jun 2026 05:07:06 +0000

Sweden is continuing to reap the rewards of this mixture of fiscal rectitude and pro-market reforms. GDP is projected to grow by 1.8% to 1.9% this year; headline inflation stands at 1.5%; debt-to-GDP ratio is one of the lowest in the world, at just above 35%.

There are some flies in this ointment, of course: The economy has recently endured a bout of stagnation, unemployment is at an uncomfortably high 9.4% and Sweden has one of Europe’s highest rates of household debt. But the business environment is healthy, particularly when it comes to business to business. Sweden has a diversified business scene — the highest number of unicorns per capita in Europe, with notable successes such as Spotify, but also a healthy manufacturing and engineering sector. Many of these established companies are thriving because of a surge in demand for both server farms and military equipment…

Sweden has recently experienced its first net emigration in 50 years, thanks to higher minimum wages for labor visas, tougher citizenship tests and, most controversially, financial payouts of up to $37,000 for refugees who volunteer to leave. It has also made progress against violent crime in the immigrant-heavy suburbs, increasing police numbers and toughening the penal code, including a boost to stop-and-search powers and a lowering in the age of criminal responsibility to 14. The number of shootings fell by 63%, from 390 in 2022 to 147 by the end of 2025.

Here is the full Bloomberg column. And here is Adrian’s new book on liberalism, self-recommending.

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Comments

In reply to Andreas. As a European, I can say that he has an ... by Horhe
In reply to Old Programmer. Yes. Popper, like Humpty Dumpty, ... by Historian
Whatever the commenters views of Sweden, there is something ... by So much for libertarianism
The notion that immigration is an unqualified good is ... by Anti-Gnostic
By liberalism, Wooldridge is referring to classical liberalism: ... by rayward
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Important committees in history

Tyler Cowen — Fri, 19 Jun 2026 20:04:51 +0000

Robin Hanson queries:

Missing book: Glorious Committees of History, on great committees that accomplished great things as committees.

GPT Pro has an impressive response, here is the start:

1. The King James Bible translation companies. This is maybe the purest literary example: 47 scholars organized into six companies at Westminster, Oxford, and Cambridge, with review procedures, producing one of the monuments of English prose. The committee form mattered because it blended scholarship, doctrinal acceptability, and a shared ear for cadence.

And Henry Oliver suggests The Great Exhibition?

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Comments

SHAEF (Supreme Headquarters of the Allied Expeditionary Force) ... by Brad Skow
Oxford English Dictionary? by Pete Houser
The IETF and W3C are pretty important to the Internet. by The Original D
In reply to Hadur. Its accuracy is apparently pretty good ... by JWC
Hmmm. Among other things, the list seems to ignore a couple of ... by Etalon d'Silomar
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Friday assorted links

Tyler Cowen — Fri, 19 Jun 2026 16:07:03 +0000

1. Liberalism and weaponized interdependence.

2. Is the AI shock like the China shock?

3. Can AI agents be individuated?

4. Who is liked by GPT 5.5? (from a partial list, if I understand this correctly)

5. “A policy-induced rural broadband expansion lowered adolescent fertility, and the response appears to operate through the information and opportunity set rather than through new clinical capacity.”

6. Noah Smith is fearing that he and many others are having less influence.

7. Right-wing arguments against Great Books. And two more.

8. “It is my great pleasure to confirm that the brilliant Professor Robin Hanson joined the UAP Science Advisory Council.“

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Comments

8. “It is my great pleasure to confirm that the brilliant ... by mkt42
In reply to Wayfaring Stranger. Actually, “theory” is ... by Nodnarb
6. God I hope his cited dating advice piece had some influence, ... by Chris
In reply to M. China is trying to increase it's sphere of ... by Hazel Meade
In reply to Brian Villanueva. “There's just way too much ... by Marian Kechlibar
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Our colleague Vincent Geloso has a Substack

Tyler Cowen — Fri, 19 Jun 2026 15:18:25 +0000

Here goes!

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Colorado’s Funeral Mistake

Alex Tabarrok — Fri, 19 Jun 2026 11:20:08 +0000

Today about a quarter of the US workforce are required to have a license to work in their chosen profession, up from just 5 percent in 1950. Almost always the trend has been to add occupational licensing over time, but in 1983 Colorado did something unusual: it delicensed funeral service workers such as funeral directors. Brandon Pizzola and I analyzed what happened in our 2017 paper, Occupational licensing causes a wage premium: Evidence from a natural experiment in Colorado’s funeral services industry.

What we found was that delicensing reduced wages, reduced prices, and caused a shift towards cremation rather than the more expensive mortuary services preferred by funeral directors. Here’s a key figure.

Average weekly wages in the funeral services industry in Colorado and the US (excluding Colorado), pre and post Colorado’s delicensing in 1983.

But that is not the end of the story. In 2023 a series of gruesome abuses came to light involving the sale of body parts, rotting bodies, and worse. Newspapers repeatedly noted that Colorado was the only state not to license funeral service workers. As a result, Colorado is relicensing funeral service workers as of 2027.

The problem is that there is no evidence that abuses were worse in Colorado. It’s easy to find similar abuses—including sexual abuse of corpses—in states with heavy licensing. Pizzola and I didn’t examine the rate of necrophilia among funeral workers in our paper (silly us), but we did cite the following:

A recent US government review of occupational licensing concluded that “the empirical research does not find large improvements in quality or health and safety from more stringent licensing” (CEA, 2015). Similarly, Colorado revisited their decision in a 1990 sunrise review that considered reinstating occupational licensing. The Colorado Department of Regulatory Agencies found that since the 1983 occupational delicensing: (1) “there had been incidents of malpractice within the profession but no widespread pattern of abuse,” (2) “[a]llegations of significant threats to the public health, safety and welfare perpetrated by the death care industry in Colorado regarding the improper disposal of human or infectious wastes had not been supported by verifiable evidence,” and (3) “claims that the public in Colorado had suffered or might suffer significant detriment due to a lack of trained mortuary science practitioners caused by the abolition of the Board were unsupported” (Colorado Department of Regulatory Agencies, 2007).

Moreover, the licensing requirements—mandating various hours of training and so forth—have very little to do with the types of abuses that generated public support for relicensing. How many hours of “don’t have sex with corpses” training is required? And the funeral director in the worst Colorado case was in fact sentenced to 40 years in jail. Isn’t that incentive enough?

People want what cannot be guaranteed: good behavior in all circumstances. And they will reach for a licensing regime if it promises that, even when such promises are empty.

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Comments

Treat Williams in Things To Do In Denver When You Are Dead! by Stories
Why would delicensing lead to more cremations? by Ray
In reply to rayward. Known in the insurance industry as ... by Peter
In reply to ChrisSmith. Have you ever purchased any item or ... by Branch Tricky
Typical AT. Completely one-sided. Seems obvious to me that ... by Neurotic
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How research in math will change (from my email)

Tyler Cowen — Fri, 19 Jun 2026 04:34:18 +0000

From GA:

I am a mathematician…and some of your recent comments on MR about the role of AI in Econ research as well as the (disappearing?) role of academic papers inspired this response. (It is partially but not exclusively about academia, so I hope it is ok that I’m sending it to your GMU address. Also, I’m hoping it doesn’t get flagged as spam because of the ai in the title…)

In no particular order:

-In the course of a math career, one accumulates lots of computational guesses, now one can test those with minimal effort.

-One also accumulates lots of incomplete and half formed drafts, proofs of special cases, etc, etc. Running those past claude and chatgpt can (does!) pay off. A lot of math is cleverly applying linear algebra and while I’m very good at linear algebra, I’m not as good at it as the AI’s are.

-The lower hanging fruit here are slightly off the beaten track, but not esoteric subjects. If you have a good overview of such, you can pretty quickly prod ai’s into making progress on them. (Before, you needed to have a school of grad students for that). Basic techniques (graph theory, algebra, calculus..) that ai’s are already good at can push these forward already. Making progress on truly hot topics is harder.

-There are some quite smart people trying to measure just how good autonomous ai’s are at math (e.g. the first batch project). That’s a fun game, but for practical purposes right now, what is relevant is how good an ai is when guided by a motivated human. I suspect we’ll see some remarkable things on that front in the next few years once math people really grok the good routines.

-For instance, getting claude and chatgpt to referee each other’s arguments is fun, and they genuinely have different insights on parts of the same problem.

-The kids will be all right. Right now, they are making pocket change doing ai training developed a better “feel” for the different ai’s that I probably ever will. And they learn things by asking the ai to explain an argument to them instead of trying to decipher a math book or paper.

-Which brings me to your papers point. I notice that a project informed with the right context is much more informative to me than the physical pdf of a math paper, and much easier to extract information out of by just asking the thing.

-Refereeing will look very different very soon. All the referee reports that have been collected by the journals should be valuable, hard to get data. And running all the accepted and published math papers through ai’s as the `control’ will end with quite a few people having egg on their face. It’s like self-driving cars, but there is no refereeing union.

-The last really big math revolution was all the stuff in the wake of Witten and 4-manifold stuff predicted by string theory in the early 90’s. This is going to be so much bigger than that. Buckle up.

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