I long for the days when you could put a kid in the post. We have weakened as a civilization.

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The present and also future of mankind is a world where reasonably high levels of self-discipline are needed to do well. The journalist Daniel Akst pointed this out in his 2011 book Temptation: Finding Self-Control in an Age of Excess, and we are now living it full force.

I would rather cope with that world than face the full nanny state, backed by modern, AI-intensified surveillance techniques to boot. Concentrating more power in political authorities hardly solves the basic problem. If marijuana and sports gambling can manipulate weak individuals, so can unscrupulous political leaders. A greater realization of individual weakness does not translate into a case for more government action; if anything, it suggests the opposite. Better to allow our social problems to fester in a more decentralized fashion, rather than reinforce our social pathologies through a manipulative and dysfunctional leader at the very top.

In the longer term, we may need to look to medications, such as GLP-1 drugs and their offshoots, which seem to curb some forms of addictive behavior beyond the appetite for food. Alternatively, some individuals may choose self-surveillance, with self-imposed penalties for bad or addictive behavior. Perhaps your AI, or a hired third party, docks your bank account every time you puff on a joint. I am not convinced such services ever will become popular, but that should be taken seriously as an indicator of what people really want to do. We can at least give them better options for self-constraint. If they rarely choose such options, then perhaps for many of those people, marijuana consumption is not a matter of weakness but a very well-established preference, whether we like it or not…

In short, it is time to realize that paternalism is far less workable than in times past. Our government does not have the credibility, the control over information, or the control over our lives to pull it off.

I do understand that is in some significant ways bad news, as voluntary choice is overwhelming some of us with bad outcomes.

My response is to start by accepting some steps backward, holding paternalist tyranny at bay, and hoping some longer-run cultural and technological adjustments will make this all more workable.

If you have a better solution, I would love to hear it.

Recommended.

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Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly promoted as educational tutors, yet most evaluations focus on domains with a single ground truth. Many disciplines, however, hinge on judgment: reasoning, weighing ambiguity, and reaching defensible conclusions. Law provides a sharp test. We conducted a blinded evaluation of short-answer tutoring in contracts courses with sixteen U.S. law professors. Participants created 40 representative questions, wrote answers, and judged 2,918 anonymized comparisons between human and LLM responses. Professors rated LLMs far higher than their peers (average win rate = 75.33%), with models performing similarly to the best instructor. LLM responses were also rarely flagged as harmful (3.53%, vs 12.06% for professors). Preferences for LLM answers were consistent across evaluators and reflected shared professional standards. Our evaluation can be reliably extended to additional models by employing a separate LLM as a judge, rendering expert agreements an effective, scalable method to evaluate AI tutors in judgment-rich domains.

“far”.  That is from a new paper by Alejandro Salinas, et.al.  Via Andrew Curran.  And via John Chamberlain:

Artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) tools are capable of mass-producing academic finance papers that are nearly indistinguishable from human-authored research, according to a new study published in the Journal of Economic Literature.

C’mon people, get ready.  I know it is difficult to admit when your human capital has been devalued, but that time is upon us.  In particular, being prolific is no longer such a comparative advantage in academia.  You might run to the “but I know what questions to ask” cope, but I implore you to solve for the equilibrium.  What is the equilibtium wage for merely asking questions?

Of course academic life and projects will continue, but the real rewards will go to people doing new, innovative, and hitherto impossible projects with AI.

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2. The method for counting 52,019 puffins.

3. Luggage-tag switching scheme involves flights from Canada to countries where drug smuggling can carry death penalty.  Yet a third link from Jodi Ettenberg.

4. Pet Sounds at sixty years.

5. How cowboy culture remade Brazil.

6. Are India’s gdp figures OK after all? (FT)

7. Plans released for a $16 billion mile-long ship capable of carrying 80,000 people.

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According to Feynman’s approach, in this context, people should try a different restaurant each night until they find one that exceeds a particular threshold that reflects a desired quality.

In Feynman’s equations this threshold is not fixed. Instead it declines more and more rapidly as the number of days left in the city reduces. In other words, as the days go by there is increasingly less motivation to hunt for an amazing dining spot, because the time you will have to enjoy it has decreased.

“The thresholds are being guided by the best thing you might be able to find if you kept looking,” said Griffiths. “If you have a long time to look, finding something amazing has a lot of value because you can go back many times.”

Feynman’s approach assumed there is equal possibility of finding any restaurant within a fixed range of quality. However the researchers also explored other scenarios.

“We showed that if the distribution of restaurants varies, then the strategy you should follow will change too,” said Griffiths.

Here is the full story, and here is the PNAS article.  I think of that as a pretty pessimistic approach to the problem.  In most locales you should be able to find lots of very good restaurants, so if you find a quality place early on you do not return to it, rather you keep looking for more, in fact feeling emboldened by your early success.  Maybe this algorithm applies to Cuba?

Via both Adam K. and Mike Doherty.

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In 2019, there were about 150,000 people working in autism therapy. Six years later, there were 654,000—more than the number of people who work in mining and logging, or telecommunications, or at the US Postal Service.

That is from Derek Thompson.  And here is the seven-minute nap story from the NYT:

At Compleat Kidz, a fast-growing chain of autism clinics based in North Carolina, the policy is firm: Naps cannot be longer than seven minutes before children are awakened to resume therapy. The company says this is necessary to prevent fraud since clinics can be paid only when children are awake and getting services. But it also allows the clinic to bill insurers or Medicaid for more hours.

I do not even need to say “model this.”

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This paper examines how expanding the legal definition of sexual assault affects fertility and sexual behavior, using a panel of European countries. I find that switching to tacit consent-based legislation reduces fertility by about 4% relative to the mean. This effect is driven by a decrease in couple formation and an increase in abortion rates. Supporting evidence is consistent with a behavioral channel in which more risk-averse individuals withdraw from dating and partner markets following the reform, altering the composition of those who remain active toward a pool that is less precautionary. Consistent with this compositional shift, contraceptive use rises among younger women but declines among older age groups, while condom use falls among young men. Finally, an analysis of appeals court verdicts in Sweden following the adoption of consent-based legislation shows a decline in unanimous guilty verdicts, indicating challenges in assessing tacit consent. These results are consistent with a simple framework in which heterogeneity in risk perceptions and precautionary behavior in dating and partner markets, including reduced participation by some individuals, helps explain the observed decline in fertility following the reform.

That is by Adrian Mehic in the Journal of Health Economics.  tekl.

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Several important questions — such as the possibility of debt-rollover without primary surpluses — turn on whether the present value of the aggregate endowment is finite, i.e., whether the economic growth rate under the “risk-neutral” measure, lies below the risk-free rate. It is tempting to argue that the endowment must be finitely valued, since there exist finitely-valued, non-depreciating assets whose cash flows are cointegrated with aggregate output. This paper shows why this argument is incorrect. A remarkable historical episode in which French government bonds were indexed to aggregate growth allows direct measurement of the risk-adjusted growth rate, which is found to exceed the risk-free rate.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Stavros Panageas.

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2. Can we agree to disagree?

3. The viral Wemby video.

4. New dark output from AI?

5. Should Florida eliminate property taxes for most residents?

6. Observations on quantum computing and its progress.

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Richard Baldwin writes:

In 2022, US service exports supported 8.9 million American jobs.

US manufacturing exports supported 2.2 million.

That’s four-to-one in favour of services. Yet in the national narrative, ‘export jobs’ almost always means things done in steel mills and factories.

…When a household in Germany pays for Netflix, that is an American export. When a Brazilian retailer buys Microsoft cloud capacity, that is an American export. When JPMorgan structures a financial deal in London, or an American consulting firm advises a company in Singapore, those are American exports too.

None of these is shipped in a container. No customs official records them as they clear the customshouse. Yet they are exports since they earn foreign income for America just as surely as the ‘Boeings, Beans and Beef’ that President Trump sold on his recent China trip.

Need I remind you that when OpenAI sells intelligence to people abroad, that is a US export? N.B. this is the future.

World trade in goods expanded roughly five-fold between 1990 and 2020. Trade in digitally enabled services expanded more than eleven-fold over the same period. These are the modern services.

The trade debate is fixated on manufacturing—where America is doing fine—while largely ignoring services, where America is crushing. Increasingly, our most valuable exports travel not on container ships but at the speed of light over fiber.

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Overall the book is very good, and if you think you might be interested you should buy and read it.  It shows a significant knowledge of opera, in part from Nussbaum’s own efforts as performer and singer.  Some of the operas considered at length include the major Mozart pieces, Verdi’s Don Carlo, Beethoven’s Fidelio, Benjamin Britten (Albert Herring, for one), and John Adams’s Nixon in China.  For Nussbaum, “political freedom” is not exactly that of the classical liberal kind, but for at least eighty percent of the book those differences do not matter.

I do have some objections to her points.  While each seems to be a smaller matter, I fear they reflect a larger reality where Nussbaum subordinates her understanding of the operas to her broader political and social agenda.

She is highly suspicious of Don Giovanni, considering it a “problem opera,” which for her I suppose it is.  She cannot bring herself to admit that fair numbers of women might actually be attracted to the Don, instead suggesting it is their baleful economic plight that leads them into such liasions.  That seems to me a grossly rigid misunderstanding of the work, at variance with centuries of high-level commentary on the piece.  Kierkegaard’s understanding remains ahead of hers, as does that of the ordinary theatergoer.

More generally, she is highly suspicious of romanticism, and she works hard to resist the notion that romanticism was a natural and perhaps even inevitable outgrowth of the classical spirit in music.  Not surprisingly, Tristan is anathema to her — “I think Tristan is a tedious opera and that the view of love in it — all unsatisfied longing and no reciprocity — is adolescent and boring.”  I would agree that virtually all Wagner operas, except perhaps Das Rheingold, are too long and thus have an element of tedium.  Yet that is hardly an accurate understanding of the libretto or the love connection (no reciprocity??).

One would do well to supplement Nussbaum with Wayne Koestenbaum’s The Queen’s Throat.  GPT Pro had a good summary of some of Koestenbaum’s quite contrasting perspectives:

“The operatic voice exceeds ordinary speech: it is too loud, too stylized, too bodily, too artificial, too emotional. That excess makes it politically charged because it disrupts norms of restraint, masculine self-control, realism, and “proper” social identity. Opera gives form to things that respectable culture often requires people—especially queer people—to hide: longing, hysteria, theatricality, shame, glamour, grief, fantasy, and desire……it is a place where identity is unstable, theatrical, mediated, and excessive.  Opera is full of secrecy, codes, hidden meanings, displaced passions, and voices that say indirectly what cannot be said directly.”

By no means are those entirely illiberal tendencies, but they complicate any identifications of opera with liberalism or indeed any other foundational political set of views.  In some fundamental fashion, opera is usually going a bit askew from strictly classical principles.

I take Beethoven to be modestly less liberal than she does, as I am concerned with the repeated sense of “culmination” in his work, and the implied notion of total communal integration as the final good.  It is not Beethoven’s fault that even the Nazis staged Fidelio, but it does point to the poliitically Romantic strand in his music, a strand that Nussbaum pushes off center stage.

Why so little Rossini in this book?  (He gets a brief mention on pp.303-304).  He is arguably the essence of opera, and the carrier of the Mozartean tradition, yet he also was a supporter of the French monarchy and its restoration.  Even Verdi was a conservative and monarchist, which puts his Don Carlo in a slightly different light.  I am reminded of Carl Schmitt’s critique of Romanticism, namely that it could transfer loyalties so readily from revolutionary republicanism to reactionary monarchism.  19th century opera is not altogether innocent of this charge, and a deeper look at the material would have confronted this issue.  Mazzini wrote a whole book on opera and saw it as supportive of nationalism above all else.  A look at the history of Auber’s La Muette de Portici, the performance of which spurred Belgian nationalism and a revolt in 1830, is consistent with this view.

Nussbaum is too concerned with her own classificatory impulses, and insufficiently aware of how much opera itself — most of all the music — keeps on diverting our attention in other directions.

Overall, this is a very thought-provoking book, full of deep knowledge of both opera and philosophy.  If it is afraid to follow down the path of where the music itself — and most of its major purveyors — were leading us, that makes it thought-provoking all the more.

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Our findings suggest that policies intended to subsidize health insurance of higher income groups, for example, the enhanced premium subsidies, are far less efficient than policies intended to further expand public insurance to low-income groups, for example, in non-expansion states.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Anuj Gangopadhyaya & Robert Kaestner.

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2. Some new results on tatonnement?

3. The new Paul McCartney album is his best since the 2004 Chaos and Creation in the Backyard.  Here is a song by song analysis.  For an 83-year-old, it is an astonishing and I think unparalleled achievement.

4. “Our findings suggest that the aggregate value of data is about 1.5% of GDP.”

5. Turkmenistan notes.

6. Seminar teaching rich kids how to manage their wealth (WSJ).

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Here is an excellent post by John Arnold who, if he were European, would be required to give 75% of his wealth to his three children instead of spending it on philanthropy as he and his spouse are now doing.

America’s cultural ideal has been the self-made entrepreneur while Europe’s was rooted in aristocracy, with status inherited rather than earned. Europe’s inheritance laws show this divide.

Many European countries have “forced heirship” laws that require people to leave 50-75% of their estates to their children. Want to leave the majority of your wealth to charity? not allowed. Your kids are estranged from you, struggling with addiction, or irresponsible? still required to give them the money. Want your kids to avoid a life of entitlement? tough.

Incredibly, these laws look back at transfers made during your lifetime. If you have 3 children in France, you’re required to bequeath them a minimum of 75% of your estate. Because French law calculates this based on your assets at death plus all lifetime gifts, giving away more than 25% of your wealth while alive means your heirs can legally sue to force charities or foundations to return the funds. This has limited the development of the nonprofit sector on the continent.

The cultural gap between an entrepreneurial society and one shaped by dynastic wealth is enormous. If you make it yourself, you tend to want your kids to do the same. If you inherit it, the primary goal is protecting the estate for the next gen.

Countries like Spain, France, and Italy legally entrench family dynasties, while America has historically sought to limit them through estate taxes. The result is not only a weaker culture of philanthropy and civil society in Europe, but also less economic dynamism.

It’s interesting that in Capital Piketty discusses required equal division to children as an egalitarian legacy of the revolution but, as far as I recall, never reflects on the fact that forced heirship prevents a French entrepreneur from giving his fortune away to charity. A case for laissez-faire, no?

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At the peak, the year to March 2023, almost 1.5m immigrants came. The Office for National Statistics thinks that far fewer people left, so net migration amounted to 944,000.

…Net migration to Britain last year amounted to 171,000—the lowest level since 2012, if the pandemic years are excluded. The human haul will probably be even lower this year, largely because the number of economic migrants continues to fall fast…James Bowes of Warwick University thinks net migration might even turn negative in 2026…

The government’s attempt to filter for highly desirable immigrants is not working in practice. As expected, the number of visas given to care workers has plunged. But the number of visas given to IT professionals has also fallen, from about 28,000 in 2022 to 10,000 last year.

According to The Economist, most Britons still think immigration to the country is rising.  And it seems economically productive immigrants are being restricted too?:

Regardless of whether he or she arrived with a work visa or by other means, the average India-born employee in Britain earns £32,400 a year, whereas the average Nigeria-born employee earns £34,000. British-born people lag behind both, with average earnings of £30,900…

The Migration Observatory, a think-tank, has shown that people who arrive from outside the EU often earn little at first. Yet the wages of recent migrants have quickly exceeded the national average…

One of my fears is that, for informational and public choice reasons, it is unduly hard to crack down on unproductive immigrants only.

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