Marginal Revolution https://marginalrevolution.com/ Small Steps Toward A Much Better World Sun, 10 May 2026 19:41:46 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/cropped-MR-logo-thumbnail-32x32.png Marginal REVOLUTION https://marginalrevolution.com/ 32 32 42693868 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/another-use-of-ai-in-research-from-my-email.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=another-use-of-ai-in-research-from-my-email Another use of AI in research (from my email) https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/955724222/0/marginalrevolution~Another-use-of-AI-in-research-from-my-email.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/another-use-of-ai-in-research-from-my-email.html#comments Mon, 11 May 2026 06:37:33 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92982 “Another thing we (John [Horton] and I) have thought about is having a swarm of AIs “fight” over a literature. They could take the cumulative datasets available and continuously argue until they understand the question. One line of thinking says they reach a stalemate (as scientists currently do). But we think not. More likely, they […]

The post Another use of AI in research (from my email) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]>

“Another thing we (John [Horton] and I) have thought about is having a swarm of AIs “fight” over a literature. They could take the cumulative datasets available and continuously argue until they understand the question. One line of thinking says they reach a stalemate (as scientists currently do). But we think not. More likely, they push evidentiary understanding to the limit and coalesce around what’s most probable — if not definitive!”

That is from Benjamin Manning.

The post Another use of AI in research (from my email) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/another-use-of-ai-in-research-from-my-email.html/feed 14 92982 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/the-interstate-trade-effects-of-autonomous-trucks.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-interstate-trade-effects-of-autonomous-trucks The interstate trade effects of autonomous trucks https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/955720268/0/marginalrevolution~The-interstate-trade-effects-of-autonomous-trucks.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/the-interstate-trade-effects-of-autonomous-trucks.html#comments Mon, 11 May 2026 04:54:05 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92980 Recent advances in autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicle technologies promise substantial cost savings for goods shipped by truck. In this study, we quantify the impacts of these transport cost reductions on the US interstate trade using a structural gravity model of domestic trade. Based on projected cost savings from the widespread adoption of self-driving technologies, we […]

The post The interstate trade effects of autonomous trucks appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]>

Recent advances in autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicle technologies promise substantial cost savings for goods shipped by truck. In this study, we quantify the impacts of these transport cost reductions on the US interstate trade using a structural gravity model of domestic trade. Based on projected cost savings from the widespread adoption of self-driving technologies, we estimate significant increases in total interstate trade value. State-level impacts vary from 40.3% of GDP in Mississippi to 5.9% in Florida, while the largest impacts in dollar value are observed in Texas and New York. The sectoral analysis highlights motorized vehicles, mixed freight, and electronics as the industries experiencing the largest trade value growth. Additionally, goods with low value-to-weight ratios—where shipping costs represent a large share of the delivered value—are expected to benefit most in relative terms. These findings underscore the transformative potential of autonomous vehicle technologies in reshaping US trade patterns and sectoral dynamics.

That is from a recent paper by Taejun Mo, et.al., via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

The post The interstate trade effects of autonomous trucks appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/the-interstate-trade-effects-of-autonomous-trucks.html/feed 15 92980 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/usa-sectoral-shift-fact-of-the-day.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=usa-sectoral-shift-fact-of-the-day USA sectoral shift fact of the day https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/955694954/0/marginalrevolution~USA-sectoral-shift-fact-of-the-day.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/usa-sectoral-shift-fact-of-the-day.html#comments Sun, 10 May 2026 17:50:33 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92978 Healthcare and Social Assistance have added nearly 1.8 million private-sector jobs in the US since the end of 2023 while all of other industries combined have lost 127,800 jobs. Here is the source (Charlie Bilello) and a graph.  In relative terms, is this good or bad for men?

The post USA sectoral shift fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]>

Healthcare and Social Assistance have added nearly 1.8 million private-sector jobs in the US since the end of 2023 while all of other industries combined have lost 127,800 jobs.

Here is the source (Charlie Bilello) and a graph.  In relative terms, is this good or bad for men?

The post USA sectoral shift fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/usa-sectoral-shift-fact-of-the-day.html/feed 32 92978 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/sunday-assorted-links-566.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=sunday-assorted-links-566 Sunday assorted links https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/955691510/0/marginalrevolution~Sunday-assorted-links.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/sunday-assorted-links-566.html#comments Sun, 10 May 2026 16:21:43 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92977 1. What should be our Bayesian priors on von Neumann probes? 2. AI book mirrors. 3. Why power in Spain is so cheap. 4. The comments on Mick West here are pretty tough.  We still do not know what it is, and yes the national security people have pondered these questions in advance.  Most broadly, […]

The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]> 1. What should be our Bayesian priors on von Neumann probes?

2. AI book mirrors.

3. Why power in Spain is so cheap.

4. The comments on Mick West here are pretty tough.  We still do not know what it is, and yes the national security people have pondered these questions in advance.  Most broadly, trust people who are in “explorer mode,” not debunker mode.  Debunker mode is tempting, because you often end up right, and feeling good about yourself, but it also means you miss big discoveries when they come along.

5. More on the cell phone ban study.

6. Technological breakthroughs and the progress of science.  The early papers based on digital computing techniques did very, very well, at least on average.

7. Germany’s deer calling championship.

8. 2019 appreciation of Genoa.

The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/sunday-assorted-links-566.html/feed 72 92977 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/will-ai-kill-the-research-paper.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=will-ai-kill-the-research-paper Will AI kill the research paper? https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/955673969/0/marginalrevolution~Will-AI-kill-the-research-paper.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/will-ai-kill-the-research-paper.html#comments Sun, 10 May 2026 10:03:12 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92976 Imagine taking a macroeconomics paper and adding a little button at the end “Press this button to update this paper with the latest macro data.” All of a sudden you have multiple papers rather than one, and no single canonical version.  It is the latter versions, not created directly by the authors, that people will […]

The post Will AI kill the research paper? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]> Imagine taking a macroeconomics paper and adding a little button at the end “Press this button to update this paper with the latest macro data.”

All of a sudden you have multiple papers rather than one, and no single canonical version.  It is the latter versions, not created directly by the authors, that people will look at.

Imagine adding another button, to either micro or macro papers “Please rerun these results using what the AI thinks might be five other different yet still plausible specifications.”

Then you have more papers yet.

Ultimately, why not just build a “meta-paper,” using AI, to answer any possible question about the subject area under consideration.  This meta-paper would allow the reader, using AI, to make many sorts of modifications and additions to the basic work.  The meta-paper also would allow the reader to add new data, to run additional robustness checks, and to do whatever else you might think of.  Once again, the canonical version of the paper evolves away.

A researcher might spend a significant part of his or her career building such a meta-paper.  Imagine a meta-paper, or sometimes I call it a “box,” devoted to answering questions about say fiscal policy, minimum wage hikes, or maybe the Industrial Revolution.  Fed researchers would spend their entire careers, not writing papers, but improving the Fed’s “box” that answers questions about monetary policy and also prudential supervision.

Who will be good at doing such things?  Is it the people today who become the top economists, or not?  Will it be a highly decentralized endeavor, or, given the compute and team work requirements, a highly centralized one?

Economics is going to change a lot, as will many of the other sciences.

It is funny, and tragic, how much some of you are still obsessed with writing and publishing “papers.”

The post Will AI kill the research paper? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/will-ai-kill-the-research-paper.html/feed 65 92976 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/which-are-the-most-common-everyday-phenomena-that-we-dont-properly-understand.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=which-are-the-most-common-everyday-phenomena-that-we-dont-properly-understand Which are the most common everyday phenomena that we don’t properly understand? https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/955659899/0/marginalrevolution~Which-are-the-most-common-everyday-phenomena-that-we-dont-properly-understand.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/which-are-the-most-common-everyday-phenomena-that-we-dont-properly-understand.html#comments Sun, 10 May 2026 04:26:40 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92975 Off the top of my head: • Lightning (how does it happen?) • Sleep; dreams (why do they exist?) • Glass (thermodynamics of formation) • Turbulence (when does it start?) • Morphogenesis (how does a creature know what should go where?) • Rain (it seems to start faster than models would predict) • Ice (dynamics […]

The post Which are the most common everyday phenomena that we don’t properly understand? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]>

Off the top of my head:

• Lightning (how does it happen?)

• Sleep; dreams (why do they exist?)

• Glass (thermodynamics of formation)

• Turbulence (when does it start?)

• Morphogenesis (how does a creature know what should go where?)

• Rain (it seems to start faster than models would predict)

• Ice (dynamics of slipperiness)

• Static electricity (which material will donate electrons?)

• General anaesthetic. (And the mechanism of a lot of drugs, e.g. paracetamol.)

That is from Patrick Collison.  It is a further interesting question how many of those questions will be answered by what is sometimes called AGI.  Perhaps none of them?  In at least some of those cases, what is scarce is experimental data, not reasoning per se.

The post Which are the most common everyday phenomena that we don’t properly understand? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/which-are-the-most-common-everyday-phenomena-that-we-dont-properly-understand.html/feed 52 92975 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/saturday-assorted-links-560.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=saturday-assorted-links-560 Saturday assorted links https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/955650347/0/marginalrevolution~Saturday-assorted-links.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/saturday-assorted-links-560.html#comments Sun, 10 May 2026 00:37:38 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92967 1. Do chatbots ever follow the interests of advertisers? 2. Approaching the Star Trek universal translator. 3. Jon Haidt response to the new cell phone study. 4. U.S. electricity prices have been flat since June. 5. Friend Alla Keselman now has a Substack. 6. I am enjoying the new Elizabeth Strout novel The Things We […]

The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]> 1. Do chatbots ever follow the interests of advertisers?

2. Approaching the Star Trek universal translator.

3. Jon Haidt response to the new cell phone study.

4. U.S. electricity prices have been flat since June.

5. Friend Alla Keselman now has a Substack.

6. I am enjoying the new Elizabeth Strout novel The Things We Never Say.  It is arguably “too American” for me, and also “too New England,” still it is quite good.

The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/saturday-assorted-links-560.html/feed 26 92967 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/the-uap-report-so-far.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-uap-report-so-far The UAP report so far https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/955628564/0/marginalrevolution~The-UAP-report-so-far.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/the-uap-report-so-far.html#comments Sat, 09 May 2026 16:17:50 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92974 I will stick with my earlier Free Press predictions: The fact remains that, if you talk with insiders, they will confirm that the federal government faces some big mysteries. It seems that we have data on what appear to be craft that move very fast, have no visible means of propulsion, and can accelerate in a surprising […]

The post The UAP report so far appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]> I will stick with my earlier Free Press predictions:

The fact remains that, if you talk with insiders, they will confirm that the federal government faces some big mysteries. It seems that we have data on what appear to be craft that move very fast, have no visible means of propulsion, and can accelerate in a surprising manner. Radar, infrared, and other forms of data are cited to varying degrees, plus there are eyewitness pilot reports, broadly consistent with what our instruments are telling us.

And this:

Assuming a reasonable chunk of the data are declassified, I think we will simply see more of the same kind of material we’ve seen in the past: more data on entities that appear to move very quickly and in mysterious ways, but with no real explanations. We will see, as I’ve argued before, that the government itself does not know what is going on, and has been afraid to admit that. That may be the real “conspiracy” and why the veil of secrecy has been relatively difficult to pierce.

As of yesterday, there are plenty of additional videos of what seem to be glowing orbs moving fast and in unpredictable ways.  Or try this one.  Here is another weird one.  Or try this.  And another one, near military craft.  And what is this?

One thing we can conclude is that the debunkers, who have been suggesting this is all camera tricks, parallax issues, or people not understanding how videos work, are proven wrong in general, even though they are right about some particular cases.  On that point we can move on, as I have been arguing for some while.  Mick West is not your proper guide here.

Nonetheless we still do not know what it all means, and I do not see proof of anything in particular.

I also will stress my earlier point that we are not going to see alien bodies or alien technologies, or anything meaningful connected to Roswell.  That is sheer fantasy, or sometimes locos.

340 million hits in the first twelve hours?  More people will be believing in aliens in any case, I suspect.  Or will it be demons?

It is fashionable in the comments sections of blogs to call this topic a waste of time, but the serious people in the military and national security — most of whom do not cite alien presence — do not see it that way.

And they will be releasing more materials.  These materials are being released because some subsection of “the Deep State” wants to know what is going on.  As do I.

The post The UAP report so far appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/the-uap-report-so-far.html/feed 82 92974 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/public-choice-outreach-4.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=public-choice-outreach-4 Public Choice Outreach! https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/955614476/0/marginalrevolution~Public-Choice-Outreach.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/public-choice-outreach-4.html#comments Sat, 09 May 2026 11:18:19 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92972 Just a few spots left! Lots of great speakers including Tyler, myself, Bryan Caplan, Robin Hanson, Jon Klick, Shruti Rajagopalan and more. Please apply and encourage your students to apply.

The post Public Choice Outreach! appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]> Just a few spots left! Lots of great speakers including Tyler, myself, Bryan Caplan, Robin Hanson, Jon Klick, Shruti Rajagopalan and more.

Please apply and encourage your students to apply.

The post Public Choice Outreach! appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/public-choice-outreach-4.html/feed 9 92972 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/self-fulfilling-misalignment.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=self-fulfilling-misalignment Self-fulfilling misalignment? https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/955603223/0/marginalrevolution~Selffulfilling-misalignment.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/self-fulfilling-misalignment.html#comments Sat, 09 May 2026 06:54:03 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92970 From Anthropic: We started by investigating why Claude chose to blackmail. We believe the original source of the behavior was internet text that portrays AI as evil and interested in self-preservation. And here is Alex Turner on the topic of self-fulfilling misalignment.  I raised this possibility some while ago in a Free Press column, and […]

The post Self-fulfilling misalignment? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]> From Anthropic:

We started by investigating why Claude chose to blackmail. We believe the original source of the behavior was internet text that portrays AI as evil and interested in self-preservation.

And here is Alex Turner on the topic of self-fulfilling misalignment.  I raised this possibility some while ago in a Free Press column, and mainly was met with hostility.

The social return to a positive world view, and avoiding negative emotional contagion, never has been higher.

The post Self-fulfilling misalignment? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/self-fulfilling-misalignment.html/feed 47 92970 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/the-social-media-ban-in-australia-how-is-it-going.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-social-media-ban-in-australia-how-is-it-going The social media ban in Australia, how is it going? https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/955596470/0/marginalrevolution~The-social-media-ban-in-Australia-how-is-it-going.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/the-social-media-ban-in-australia-how-is-it-going.html#comments Sat, 09 May 2026 04:29:35 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92963 In December 2025, Australia became the first country to ban youth under 16 years old from holding accounts on major social media platforms, a policy now under consideration in more than a dozen countries and in numerous states. Because social media use is inherently social, the effectiveness of a ban that is easy to circumvent […]

The post The social media ban in Australia, how is it going? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]>

In December 2025, Australia became the first country to ban youth under 16 years old from holding accounts on major social media platforms, a policy now under consideration in more than a dozen countries and in numerous states. Because social media use is inherently social, the effectiveness of a ban that is easy to circumvent may depend on whether compliance reaches a tipping point: a share of compliant peers high enough to make it optimal for individuals to comply themselves. We surveyed 835 Australian teenagers four months after the ban took effect and find that only about one in four 14–15-year-olds comply. The social environment around use has barely moved: most banned teens believe that their peers are still using banned platforms and cite social reasons for continuing use. Sustaining high compliance requires two ingredients: the share of compliers must be high enough and those who comply must find it preferable to continue complying. The current ban achieves neither. Teenagers report that they require roughly two-thirds of peers to stop using social media to stop themselves, far above the share currently complying. They also perceive compliers as less popular than non-compliers, so the more influential teens disproportionately stay on the platforms. Together, these patterns suggest that compliance is more likely to diminish than to rise. Sustaining higher compliance will likely require pairing the ban with instruments that act on social norms and individual incentives directly.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Leonardo Bursztyn, Angela L. Duckworth, Rafael Jiménez-Durán, Aaron Leonard, Filip Milojević, Christopher Roth & Cass R. Sunstein.

A few days ago I was talking with a very smart fifteen year old in Australia (really).  He was of the opinion that it was quite ineffective, though he noted he could no longer access LinkedIn.  I would note there are more stringent measures, requiring more governmental monitoring and control of the internet, that perhaps could have a greater effect.

The post The social media ban in Australia, how is it going? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/the-social-media-ban-in-australia-how-is-it-going.html/feed 41 92963 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/friday-assorted-links-571.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=friday-assorted-links-571 Friday assorted links https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/955564193/0/marginalrevolution~Friday-assorted-links.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/friday-assorted-links-571.html#comments Fri, 08 May 2026 17:13:14 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92962 1. Eigenism. 2. Steven Nadler, Spinoza, Atheist.  A good and very readable introduction to the Dutch philosopher. 3. Neal Katyal talk on what really won the SCOTUS tariff case. 4. “What America lacks relative to Europe is not price-sensitive leisure travelers but routes where almost everyone is a price-sensitive leisure traveler.”  From Matt Y. 5. The […]

The post Friday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]> 1. Eigenism.

2. Steven Nadler, Spinoza, Atheist.  A good and very readable introduction to the Dutch philosopher.

3. Neal Katyal talk on what really won the SCOTUS tariff case.

4. “What America lacks relative to Europe is not price-sensitive leisure travelers but routes where almost everyone is a price-sensitive leisure traveler.”  From Matt Y.

5. The White House is distancing itself from the very tough AI regulation idea.

6. Musical longevity is reaching its peak this year.

7. Are these the emerging megaregions?

The post Friday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/friday-assorted-links-571.html/feed 94 92962 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/the-ufo-files.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-ufo-files The UFO files https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/955549226/0/marginalrevolution~The-UFO-files.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/the-ufo-files.html#comments Fri, 08 May 2026 12:43:23 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92968 Here is the web site, with some of the files released, I have not yet had a chance to look or to read any reliable summaries.  More releases are expected, and as of this moment the Kalshi market is at 25 or so.

The post The UFO files appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]> Here is the web site, with some of the files released, I have not yet had a chance to look or to read any reliable summaries.  More releases are expected, and as of this moment the Kalshi market is at 25 or so.

The post The UFO files appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/the-ufo-files.html/feed 60 92968 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/a-simple-point-about-diversification.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=a-simple-point-about-diversification A simple point about diversification https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/955547627/0/marginalrevolution~A-simple-point-about-diversification.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/a-simple-point-about-diversification.html#comments Fri, 08 May 2026 12:19:37 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92964 In recent times a significant percentage of the S&P 500 run-up has been driven by a small number of tech and AI stocks.  Plus the effects of AI can be expected to be further reaching yet for some while. That makes it harder to diversify against risk, as there is a single dominant variable, namely […]

The post A simple point about diversification appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]> In recent times a significant percentage of the S&P 500 run-up has been driven by a small number of tech and AI stocks.  Plus the effects of AI can be expected to be further reaching yet for some while.

That makes it harder to diversify against risk, as there is a single dominant variable, namely “AI risk” or something similar.  There is AI risk both in your portfolio and on your human capital, though possibly those will offset each other to some degree.

Presumably the equity premium should rise as a result?  People will want more portfolio safety as a protective offset, and be gunshy about such a heavy equities bet on one major technology.

If you have a longish time horizon, do you feel brave enough to act on that view?

Or perhaps instead there is some simple way to hedge against AI risk?

One “stupid” equilibrium that no one will want to talk about is the following: buy lots of Nvidia, but if that doesn’t pay off make sure you are doing an MBA and planning a career in non-AI-implementation consulting.

The post A simple point about diversification appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/a-simple-point-about-diversification.html/feed 91 92964 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/sentences-to-ponder-138.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=sentences-to-ponder-138 Sentences to ponder https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/955534295/0/marginalrevolution~Sentences-to-ponder.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/sentences-to-ponder-138.html#comments Fri, 08 May 2026 07:25:13 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92950 Exposure increases interclass (high- and low-parent-income) marriage but has no detectable effect on interracial (White and Black) marriage. A spatial marriage market model predicts that residential segregation—one of many forms of exposure—accounts for more than one third of marital sorting by class but less than 5% by race. That is from a new NBER working […]

The post Sentences to ponder appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]>

Exposure increases interclass (high- and low-parent-income) marriage but has no detectable effect on interracial (White and Black) marriage. A spatial marriage market model predicts that residential segregation—one of many forms of exposure—accounts for more than one third of marital sorting by class but less than 5% by race.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Benjamin Goldman, Jamie Gracie & Sonya Porter.

The post Sentences to ponder appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/sentences-to-ponder-138.html/feed 59 92950