While northern professions in 1600 did not require lengthy training in mathematics or science, there was popular interest in these topics. England’s first chair in mathematics was endowed by Thomas Gresham,61 who had founded London’s Royal Exchange and pledged the rents from that institution to fund seven professorships, who would not train student but would rather give two public lectures (in Latin and English) each week. As Gresham also gave chairs in astronomy and “physik,” this produced a cluster of scientifically minded individuals, who would later play an outsized role in the founding of the Royal Society. Robert Hooke was the Gresham Professor of Geometry, William Petty the Gresham Professor of Music, and Christopher Wren the Gresham Professor of Astronomy.

Perhaps because of Gresham’s public lectures, interest in mathematics grew. More professorships followed, including the mid-17th century Lucasian Chair in Mathematics (after William Lucas, member of parliament for Cambridge), for which Isaac Newton would be the second occupant (Clark, 1904). The popular interest in science also meant that teachers at urban universities could fill public lecture halls by teaching about chemistry, and even performing public chemistry experiments.

That is from a new NBER working paper by David M. Cutler and Edward L. Glaeser, “How Have Universities Survived for Nearly a Millennium?”  Has any single individual funded three equally prestigious chairs or anything close to that?

The post Thomas Gresham is underrated appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

      

Related Stories

• Images 2.0
• The Luddites Were the First to Attack AI
• A Comparison of Agentic AI Systems and Human Economists

 

2. Niklas Luhmann.

3. Why Rome never industrialized (YouTube video).

4. One account of the genocidal impulse.

5. Organs on demand?  We will see.

6. U.S. at the Venice Biennial (NYT).

7. “Argentina’s economy shrank 2.6 per cent in February compared to January, the largest monthly contraction since President Javier Milei took office in late 2023, as his inflation-busting economic programme weighed on major industries.”  FT link here.

8. Some observations on Iran.

9. David Malouf, RIP.

10. A fragment of Homer’s Iliad inside an Egyptian mummy?

The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Vivian Darkbloom. Or, perhaps, “camp ... by Vivian Darkbloom
• 2. Ryan Holiday has written 17+ books “The Notecard System: ... by Atom
• In reply to Phil S.. So the guy mowing your lawn that you ... by CB
• In reply to A citizen of a NATO country. The US is an energy ... by kwazii
• In reply to Pipsterate. 2. Niklas Luhmann. I have mixed ... by RAD
• Plus 10 more...

 

Under the directives of the President of the UAE, we launch a new government model.

Within two years, 50% of government sectors, services, and operations will run on Agentic AI, making the UAE the first government globally to operate at this scale through autonomous systems.

AI is no longer a tool. It analyses, decides, executes, and improves in real time. It will become our executive partner to enhance services, accelerate decisions, and raise efficiency.

This transformation has a clear timeline. Two years. Performance across government will be measured by speed of adoption, quality of implementation, and mastery of AI in redesigning government work.

We are investing in our people. Every federal employee will be trained to master AI, building one of the world’s strongest capabilities in AI-driven government.

Implementation will be overseen by Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed, with a dedicated taskforce chaired by Mohammad Al Gergawi driving execution.

The world is changing. Technology is accelerating. Our principle remains constant. People come first. Our goal is a government that is faster, more responsive, and more impactful.

Here is the link.  While there is typically a certain amount of PR in such pronouncements, I do not think this one is only PR.

The post From the UAE appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Anti-Gnostic. Are Kafala “employers” holding ... by Someone with common sense
• It's worth mentioning the UAE has invested in AI research. At ... by Fazal Majid
• In reply to Bob. Stuff like The Line. by M
• In reply to Someone with common sense. The UAE is not ... by Anti-Gnostic
• In reply to Anti-Gnostic. When “employers” of Kafala ... by Someone with common sense
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• Those old factory sector jobs
• Images 2.0
• The Luddites Were the First to Attack AI

 

We construct a posttax, posttransfer income measure from 1963 to 2023 based on the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement that allows us to consistently compare the economic well-being of five generations of Americans at ages 36–40. We find that Millennials had a real median household income that was 20% higher than that of the previous generation, a slowdown from the growth rate of the Silent Generation (36%) and Baby Boomers (26%), but similar to that of Generation X (16%). The slowdown for younger generations largely resulted from stalled growth in work hours among women. Progress for Millennials younger than 30 has also remained robust, though largely due to greater reliance on their parents. Additionally, lifetime income gains for younger generations far outweigh their higher educational costs.

That is from Kevin Corrinth and Jeff Larrimore in Demography.  Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

The post Is each American generation doing better? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Sure. No, the problem is that the good schools ... by Sure
• In reply to Sure. None of this is new or different from what ... by Okay
• Scott Lincicome of The Dispatch and Cato has written some very ... by Jim
• In reply to steve. I think we are also seeing the actuarial ... by Sure
• In reply to Wayfaring Stranger. Age at first birth is up for ... by Sure
• Plus 10 more...

 

As AI sweeps into white-collar workplaces, old-timey hands-on jobs are getting a new look—and some of those professions even have shortages.

Consider tailors. Sewing is a vanishing skill, much like lacemaking and watchmaking, putting tailors in short supply when big retailers like Nordstrom and Men’s Wearhouse, as well as fashion designers and local dry cleaners, say they need more of them.

For the first semester of its program, which concluded in December, FIT received more than 190 applications for 15 spots. The nine-week course requires prior sewing experience. Nordstrom hired seven students from the inaugural class.

“It’s increasingly becoming more challenging to find people to fill these alterations jobs,” said Marco Esquivel, the director of alterations and aftercare services at Nordstrom, which employs about 1,500 tailors. Similar to other high-end retailers, Nordstrom offers free basic tailoring for garments purchased at the department-store chain and charges a fee for those bought elsewhere.

Tailored Brands, which employs about 1,300 tailors at its Men’s Wearhouse, Jos. A. Bank and other chains, is updating its apprenticeship program to include more self-guided videos with the goal of moving people through the training faster.

Here is more from Suzanne Kapner at the WSJ.  Via LJ Fenkell.

The post Those old factory sector jobs appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Anti-Gnostic. There's an infinite list of people ... by Hazel Meade
• In reply to Snowy. Sure, but there objectively isn't an ... by Hazel Meade
• In reply to Hazel Meade. Should say “wrinkled” hem. It's ... by Hazel Meade
• In reply to Anti-Gnostic. It is interesting how there are ... by mkt42
• In reply to mkt42. I paid extra to get the “rough” look ... by Hazel Meade
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• The Luddites Were the First to Attack AI
• Zimbabwe facts of the day
• Eight Rules to Regain Public Trust in Academia

 

Professor Cowen,

Built a county-level AI displacement model across all 3,204 US counties. Top 5 most exposed counties are all in the DC metro, not the Rust Belt.

https://yourjobrisk.com

https://jakeprokopets.substack.com/p/why-the-most-ai-exposed-counties

18, built it in three days.

Jake Prokopets

The post The exposed counties (from my email) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Scott Mauldin. Every single time someone posts a ... by TMC
• In reply to Harun. >Lawyers are a really obvious area. In my ... by Gdanning
• How do you determine who is “exposed”? Which jobs are ... by Hazel Meade
• >…”Meanwhile, the lowest-exposure occupations in the model ... by Mitchell
• Probably a good thought piece — at the very least to avoid ... by john
• Plus 10 more...

 

2. Interview with Sindarov’s trainer.

3. Tariff increases are contractionary.

4. Progress Conference 2026.

5. U.S. manufacturing capacity has been growing for sixteen consecutive quarters.

6. Dean Ball book on AI is coming.

7. DEI statement requirements in academic hiring have more than halved within a year.

8. Christopher Phelan nominated to be CEA chair.

The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Sure. Well yes, but every social determinant of ... by Sure
• In reply to Sure. The highest numbers I've seen have been ... by Sure
• In reply to Sure. A big medical malpractice case is now ... by Sure
• In reply to Sure. “In terms of liability, maybe I am ... by Lord Action
• In reply to Sure. M: The folks who built the sewers were ... by Sure
• Plus 10 more...

 

VinNews: The Rockland County Legislature approved amendments to the Home Improvement Law, dissolving the existing Home Improvement Licensing Board and shifting primary licensing authority to the Legislature itself…Under the new rules, the former licensing board will be reduced to an advisory role, losing its power to issue or revoke licenses. Licensing responsibilities will now fall under the Rockland County Legislature…

This is an interesting change and worth studying. In the Licensing Racket, which I reviewed for the WSJ, Rebecca Haw Allensworth emphasizes that occupational licensing boards put the fox in charge of the chickens:

Governments enact occupational-licensing laws but rarely handle regulation directly—there’s no Bureau of Hair Braiding. Instead, interpretation and enforcement are delegated to licensing boards, typically dominated by members of the profession. Occupational licensing is self-regulation. The outcome is predictable: Driven by self-interest, professional identity and culture, these boards consistently favor their own members over consumers.

Ms. Allensworth conducted exhaustive research for “The Licensing Racket,” spending hundreds of hours attending board meetings—often as the only nonboard member present. At the Tennessee board of alarm-system contractors, most of the complaints come from consumers who report the sort of issues that licensing is meant to prevent: poor installation, code violations, high-pressure sales tactics and exploitation of the elderly. But the board dismisses most of these complaints against its own members, and is far more aggressive in disciplining unlicensed handymen who occasionally install alarm systems. As Ms. Allensworth notes, “the board was ten times more likely to take action in a case alleging unlicensed practice than one complaining about service quality or safety.”

Moving regulation out of the hands of the regulated could be an improvement but there are also advantages to self-regulation. See my review for other reform possibilities.

Hat tip: Heshy.

The post Ending the Occupational Licensing Racket appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Hazel Meade. Today's FBI is the least politicized ... by TMC
• In reply to MikeT. The opposite of SPLC is not the hate ... by TMC
• In reply to Wayfaring Stranger. It's a statement of fact that ... by Hazel Meade
• In reply to Hazel Meade. Hazel chants allegience to the NYT ... by Wayfaring Stranger
• In reply to Hazel Meade. Ah, yes, I guess that's why one ... by Wayfaring Stranger
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• The empirically inscrutable climate-economy relationship
• The Luddites Were the First to Attack AI
• A Comparison of Agentic AI Systems and Human Economists

 

The post The empirically inscrutable climate-economy relationship appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Wayfaring Stranger. Regardless of how you feel ... by Tom DeMeo
• In reply to Anti-Gnostic. Under what authority was I ... by rsm
• In reply to Dredd. Shipping data: UNCTAD releases new ... by Dredd
• In reply to rsm. It is legal. You can kill yourself whenever ... by Anti-Gnostic
• The paper indicates that “Climate change can affect the ... by Dredd
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• Ending the Occupational Licensing Racket
• A Comparison of Agentic AI Systems and Human Economists
• On the impact of Trump’s tariffs

 

We do not know whether technological unemployment swept across England in the wake of the British Industrial Revolution. In this paper, I propose an approach to quantify jobs lost to, and created by, creative destruction in the 19th century. Using over 170 million individual records from the full-count British census (1851–1911), I generate sub-industry “task” level occupational data. I apply this to the English bootmaking industry as it mechanized. The new data reveal sharp structural changes: 152,000 artisanal jobs disappeared as skills became obsolete, while 144,000 new jobs emerged. However, incumbent bootmakers were rarely displaced. Instead, the decline was driven by young men no longer entering the artisanal trade. These findings challenge assumptions about displacement, showing how slow adoption and persistent demand can shield existing workers, while opportunities vanish for new entrants.

That is a recent paper by Hillary Vipond, a recent PhD from LSE.  Via Lukas Freund.  Here are other papers by Hillary, some of them on what we can learn about automation from economic history.  Here is Hillary on Twitter.

The post Technological unemployment in Victorian Britain appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to rayward. Rayward: Data is never wrong. It's the ... by Wayfaring Stranger
• In reply to rayward. >AI is a poor substitute for humans in ... by Gilligan
• In reply to rayward. The common rejoinder to my comment about ... by rayward
• In reply to Flex. According to this paper, if you just wait ... by Tom T.
• In reply to Mark C. Ah but you can blame the AI package. ... by dearieme
• Plus 10 more...

 

Created by Alex T., and of course GPT as well.

The post Imagegen 2.0 appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to I am struck. You have to be impressed (I ... by anon
• In reply to Anoniemoose. They’re “profoundly wrong.” ... by Terry richards
• In reply to Vaquero. ^ Human slop by Leo
• This is what my students' presentation slides look like. Lots ... by Tom
• In reply to I am struck. You must be new to the internet ... by Gilligan
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• A Comparison of Agentic AI Systems and Human Economists
• Eight Rules to Regain Public Trust in Academia
• How long should a college degree take?

 

2. A long NYT feature on how to be cultured.

3. “We apply our theory to US state legislative elections, and find that ideologically extreme candidates receive significantly lower voter support in initiative than in non-initiative states.”

4. Guinea worm eradicated.

5. People laid off from USAID (NYT).

6. Ariel Rubinstein tells his story.  And his home page more generally.

7. Deirdre on Doug North and neo-institutionalism.

The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Gilligan. Apparently, working as a bureaucrat in ... by Big Al
• In reply to mkt42. Knowing Ariel, these are cafes he happened ... by Guy
• In reply to notReally. USAID was a pure transfer payment ... by Anti-Gnostic
• In reply to Gilligan. The article was poorly written. It was ... by CB
• In reply to notReally. Unelected, extra-legal hackers cut ... by CB
• Plus 10 more...

 

The result is that even though today’s young adults, and graduates in particular, are over-represented in the top quartile of the earnings distribution, they are also far more likely to be at the bottom than the top for earnings relative to reasonable expectations. In both the UK and US, even though only 10 percent of graduates are in the lowest earnings quartile, one in three is in the bottom bracket for earnings relative to expectations.

Here is more from John Burn-Murdoch at the FT.

The post The Average is Over generation? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Tyler_Attorney. I'd start with the promises our ... by Gilligan
• In reply to Seattle runner. Cant be much worse than Seattle ... by Wayfaring Stranger
• In reply to Tyler_Attorney. “elite overproduction” by Brent Buckner
• In reply to Tyler_Attorney. “relative to reasonable ... by dearieme
• In reply to hash872. Indeed; I have had a Gell-Mann amnesia ... by M
• Plus 9 more...

Related Stories

• On the impact of Trump’s tariffs
• Birthright Citizenship and Youth Crime
• “Dark labor” claims to upset almost everybody

 

The Jacquard loom, introduced in France circa 1805, used a chain of punched cards to control which threads were raised for each pass of the shuttle. The ability to change the pattern of the loom’s weave by simply changing cards was an important conceptual precursor to computer programming. Babbage borrowed the idea directly for the Analytical Engine in the 1830s.

The Luddites lost–they were violently suppressed by the UK military–but more generally they lost because programmable looms brought patterned clothes to the masses.

Prior to its invention, the creation of complex patterns required skilled and labour-intensive manual labour, often involving large teams of weavers. With the Jacquard loom, a single operator could control the machine and produce intricate designs with relative ease.

This innovation greatly increased the speed and efficiency of textile production. It also opened up new possibilities for creativity and design, as the loom enabled the production of intricate patterns that were previously unattainable. The Jacquard loom contributed to the democratization of textile manufacturing, making intricate fabrics accessible to a wider audience

By the time Jacquard died in 1834, thousands of his looms were operating in Manchester, an epi-center of the Luddites riots. Moreover, just over 100 years later, Manchester birthed the Manchester Baby and the Manchester Mark 1, the first electronic stored-program computer. And who was hired to program the latter? None other than Alan Turing.

Ada Lovelace had foretold it all beautifully: “the Analytical Engine weaves algebraical patterns just as the Jacquard-loom weaves flowers and leaves.”

Addendum: I thank Claude for assistance on this post.

The post The Luddites Were the First to Attack AI appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Wayfaring Stranger. “I don't feel that society ... by anonprof
• In reply to Bill Allen. If you stopped prompting it, it gave ... by So...
• It is rather amusing how the Luddites were a historical ... by Will
• So you are saying the center of the Luddite riots was somewhere ... by Dzhaughn
• You want to destroy AI because you are a Luddite. I want to ... by Clode
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• Moonsteading
• Thomas Gresham is underrated
• From the UAE

 

This paper compares agentic AI systems and human economists performing the same causal inference tasks. AI systems and humans generally obtain similar median causal effect estimates. While there is substantial dispersion of estimates across model instances, the human distributions of estimates have wider tails. Using AI models as reviewers to compare and rank “submissions,” the following ranking emerges regardless of reviewer model: (1) Codex GPT-5.4, (2) Codex GPT-5.3-Codex, (3) Claude Code Opus 4.6, and (4) Human Researchers. These findings suggest that agentic AI systems will allow us to scale empirical research in economics.

I enjoy the name of the author, namely Serafin Grundl.  Here is the paper, via Ethan Mollick.  You could interpret these results as showing the AIs have fewer hallucinations.  And just to reiterate a key point from the paper:

The second part of this paper is an AI review tournament in which “submissions” (codes and write-ups) from humans and the AI models are compared and ranked against each other. The reviewers are the following AI models: Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview, Opus 4.6 and GPT-5.4. For each review the reviewer is asked to write a report comparing four submissions (human, Opus 4.6, GPT-5.3-Codex, GPT-5.4). Each reviewer model writes comparison reports for the same 300 comparison groups. The average rankings are strikingly similar across reviewer models: (1) Codex GPT-5.4, (2) Codex GPT-5.3-Codex, (3) Claude Code Opus 4.6, and 2(4) Human Researchers.

Who comes in last?  Hi people!

The post A Comparison of Agentic AI Systems and Human Economists appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to James. Just because your team is pumping out ... by Derek
• In reply to Derek. LOL. I think you're a little out of your ... by James
• In reply to James. “everyone knows” is not a particularly ... by Derek
• Absolute amateur hour. I have worked for over 15 years in AI, ... by James
• I would expect agentic AI systems to outperform humans at ... by Mark C
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• Thomas Gresham is underrated
• From the UAE
• Ending the Occupational Licensing Racket