Marginal Revolution https://marginalrevolution.com/ Small Steps Toward A Much Better World Mon, 13 Apr 2026 21:05:12 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://marginalrevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/cropped-MR-logo-thumbnail-32x32.png Marginal REVOLUTION https://marginalrevolution.com/ 32 32 42693868 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/the-economic-value-of-eliminating-cancer.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-economic-value-of-eliminating-cancer The economic value of eliminating cancer https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/953759255/0/marginalrevolution~The-economic-value-of-eliminating-cancer.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/the-economic-value-of-eliminating-cancer.html#comments Tue, 14 Apr 2026 06:48:35 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92827 This paper estimates the economic value to the United States of eliminating cancer mortality over a 35-year horizon beginning in 2030, which would eliminate 30.7 million cancer deaths with a total mortality burden of 380 million life-years. We quantify the economic value of this substantial reduction in cancer mortality by incorporating the monetized value of […]

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This paper estimates the economic value to the United States of eliminating cancer mortality over a 35-year horizon beginning in 2030, which would eliminate 30.7 million cancer deaths with a total mortality burden of 380 million life-years. We quantify the economic value of this substantial reduction in cancer mortality by incorporating the monetized value of increased longevity. To value the longevity gains in monetary terms, we utilize the valuations used by the U.S. federal government in its cost-benefit evaluations of regulations. Eliminating cancer mortality generates $197 trillion in economic benefits over 35 years, corresponding to approximately $16,282 per American per year, or $41,684 per American household per year. If cancer elimination is viewed as an R&D investment, it yields an enormous internal rate of return, ranging from 570% to 1,024%, based on benchmarked R&D costs. In addition, we perform a sensitivity analysis by varying the elimination durations and the degree of success, using the benchmark case scenario in which cancer mortality is reduced by 80 percent over a 20-year transition. This achieves about 70 percent of the total economic value of full elimination above, corresponding to aggregate benefits of about $134 trillion, or approximately $11,112 per person per year.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Tomas J. Philipson, Deyu Zhang, Shumaila Abbasi & Noah Fisher.  I will note in passing this is an argument for wanting to see reasonable Chinese progress in AI.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/the-economic-value-of-eliminating-cancer.html/feed 5 92827 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/dark-labor-claims-to-upset-almost-everybody.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=dark-labor-claims-to-upset-almost-everybody “Dark labor” claims to upset almost everybody https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/953756813/0/marginalrevolution~Dark-labor-claims-to-upset-almost-everybody.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/dark-labor-claims-to-upset-almost-everybody.html#comments Tue, 14 Apr 2026 05:17:43 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92823 This paper introduces Entangled Time — a novel economic variable representing the simultaneous production-consumption state characterizing human engagement with algorithmic digital interfaces. We develop a formal equilibrium model in which rational agents allocate time to zero-price digital platforms, where their behavioral data constitutes unpriced cognitive labor driving AI capital formation. We demonstrate three principal results. First, under […]

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This paper introduces Entangled Time — a novel economic variable representing the simultaneous production-consumption state characterizing human engagement with algorithmic digital interfaces. We develop a formal equilibrium model in which rational agents allocate time to zero-price digital platforms, where their behavioral data constitutes unpriced cognitive labor driving AI capital formation. We demonstrate three principal results. First, under a non-stationary algorithmic resonance state formalized through a Preference Expansion Function, the marginal utility of interface time can be non-decreasing, violating Gossen’s First Law and generating a corner solution (Proposition~1). Second, the firm operating as an algorithmic monopsony facing perfectly inelastic labor supply optimally sets the fiat wage for digital labor equal to zero, substituting monetary compensation with endogenous digital utility (Proposition~2). Third, we define and calibrate Dark GDP — the aggregate value of uncompensated cognitive labor invisible to the System of National Accounts—and show it accounts for a measurable fraction of the secular decline in global labor share (Propositions~7–9). We establish equilibrium existence via Brouwer’s Fixed Point Theorem and propose an empirical identification strategy using privacy-mandate shocks as instruments for data extraction. Three institutional redesigns are proposed: an Algorithmic Monopsony Standard, a Pigouvian Algorithmic Severance Tax, and a Cognitive Depreciation Allowance.

That is all from Nav Vaidhyanathan, who estimates the value of these unpriced services may be in the range of $1.3 trillion.  Here is the easier to follow Substack version.  Speculative, but worth a ponder.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/dark-labor-claims-to-upset-almost-everybody.html/feed 3 92823 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/incentives-matter-mexican-cartel-edition.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=incentives-matter-mexican-cartel-edition Incentives matter, Mexican cartel edition https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/953738573/0/marginalrevolution~Incentives-matter-Mexican-cartel-edition.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/incentives-matter-mexican-cartel-edition.html#comments Mon, 13 Apr 2026 18:16:57 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92822 But the cartel’s interests may prove just as important to security as government efforts, according to a dozen local and state officials and security experts. The CJNG has much to gain from the regional economic boost of a successful tournament in Guadalajara — akin to its administrative headquarters — and much to lose from drawing […]

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But the cartel’s interests may prove just as important to security as government efforts, according to a dozen local and state officials and security experts.

The CJNG has much to gain from the regional economic boost of a successful tournament in Guadalajara — akin to its administrative headquarters — and much to lose from drawing authorities’ attention.

“The city is safe because those guys put all their money here, and they stand to make even more,” said one state official who was not authorised to speak on the record. “They don’t want a war here.”

Huge profits earned elsewhere from drug trafficking and other activities are laundered in Guadalajara, experts said, helping to power a real estate boom. A rash of shiny new skyscrapers has popped up, some of which sit empty. The leafy city also boasts luxurious open-air shopping malls and lively nightlife.

Here is more from Ciara Nugent at the FT.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/incentives-matter-mexican-cartel-edition.html/feed 28 92822 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/that-was-then-that-was-then.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=that-was-then-that-was-then That was then, that was then https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/953738042/0/marginalrevolution~That-was-then-that-was-then.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/that-was-then-that-was-then.html#comments Mon, 13 Apr 2026 17:54:58 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92816 Fred Anderson has demonstrated how a futuristic novel written in 1763 can help to shed light on British thinking about the long-term consequences of the peace [from the Seven Years’ War].  The anonymously published The Reign of George VI, 1900-1925 presents a scenario far in the future, in the early twentieth century.  The book’s counterhistorical […]

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Fred Anderson has demonstrated how a futuristic novel written in 1763 can help to shed light on British thinking about the long-term consequences of the peace [from the Seven Years’ War].  The anonymously published The Reign of George VI, 1900-1925 presents a scenario far in the future, in the early twentieth century.  The book’s counterhistorical narrative suggests that Britain, by granting far too generous a peace in 1763, unintentionally helped France and Russia become leading nineteenth-century world powers.  In the early twentieth century, the reign of George VI is thus dominated by Britain’s worldwide struggle to reestablish its position as a global power.  The conflict ends with Britain imposing peace in Paris in 1920, after British troops have “liberated” France, with George, the “philosopher king,” hailed as the bringer of freedom.  At the time the book was written in 1763, its primary target was clearly the British negotiators in Paris…

That is from the new and interesting book The World in Flames: A Global History of the Seven Years’ War by Marian Füssel.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/that-was-then-that-was-then.html/feed 11 92816 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/ev-arts-patronage-tranche.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=ev-arts-patronage-tranche EV Arts Patronage Tranche https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/953736845/0/marginalrevolution~EV-Arts-Patronage-Tranche.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/ev-arts-patronage-tranche.html#comments Mon, 13 Apr 2026 17:30:59 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92825 EV Arts Patronage Tranche This is a new tranche of ad hoc awards, given out more like prizes, without applications, to writers, creatives, and intellectuals who are not supported by the current system of awards and grants, or who have been failed by such systems. With advice from Henry Oliver.  And a thanks to Patrick […]

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]]> EV Arts Patronage Tranche

This is a new tranche of ad hoc awards, given out more like prizes, without applications, to writers, creatives, and intellectuals who are not supported by the current system of awards and grants, or who have been failed by such systems.

With advice from Henry Oliver.  And a thanks to Patrick Collison for enabling this.

I am pleased to announce that our first winner is Helen DeWitt.

Please do contact me if you are interested in supporting this new effort.  Let us debureaucratize the arts and restore justice to worthy creators!

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/ev-arts-patronage-tranche.html/feed 10 92825 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/monday-assorted-links-555.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=monday-assorted-links-555 Monday assorted links https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/953734601/0/marginalrevolution~Monday-assorted-links.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/monday-assorted-links-555.html#comments Mon, 13 Apr 2026 16:13:10 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92808 1. AI adoption gaps for Europe. 2. Books are plunging as a share of political science citations. 3. Gender integration in the military did not hurt male performance. 4. MIE: auctioning off part of the Eiffel Tower (NYT). 5. Agentic AI for economists, slides.  And talk. 6. Seb Krier Substack.

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]]> 1. AI adoption gaps for Europe.

2. Books are plunging as a share of political science citations.

3. Gender integration in the military did not hurt male performance.

4. MIE: auctioning off part of the Eiffel Tower (NYT).

5. Agentic AI for economists, slides.  And talk.

6. Seb Krier Substack.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/monday-assorted-links-555.html/feed 56 92808 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/prediction-market-details.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=prediction-market-details Prediction Market Details https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/953719784/0/marginalrevolution~Prediction-Market-Details.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/prediction-market-details.html#comments Mon, 13 Apr 2026 11:15:12 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92818 The Guardian has an interesting article on prediction markets. There are the usual worries about betting on death, as if insurance markets don’t already exist and about insider trading, which public markets have long dealt with. But there is also interesting material on who decides what happened when resolving bets about events made in language […]

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]]> The Guardian has an interesting article on prediction markets. There are the usual worries about betting on death, as if insurance markets don’t already exist and about insider trading, which public markets have long dealt with. But there is also interesting material on who decides what happened when resolving bets about events made in language (as opposed to more objectively verified numbers).

On Monday, anonymous user “Harshad” asked in a Discord channel if there was “any chance” that he could still win his bet about whether US forces would enter Iran by the end of April. His money was on “no”.

But Polymarket appeared to be resolving the market to “yes”, after the US conducted an operation to rescue a crew member shot down on a mission over Isfahan over the weekend.

…At the moment, when there is a dispute, markets on Polymarket are settled by an anonymous group of people who hold a crypto token called UMA.

It’s an unusual way to decide what has happened. Some longtime users suggest it opens the platform to corruption. Different individuals hold different amounts of UMA, and therefore have different voting power.

It isn’t known who the largest UMA holders are, or what might affect how they vote. It is entirely possible that the people who finally settle a bet on UMA have large amounts of money staked on it.

There was also this bit about Prediction Hunt (I am an advisor) which is focused on cross-market arbitrage opportunities:

“I love to gamble,” said Joseph Francia.

Now in his early 30s, Francia counted cards in casinos while studying economics at Berkeley, and spent weekends in Reno, Nevada, playing blackjack. He’s not a thrill-seeking “Yolo” (you only live once) gambler, he said: he likes to bet when he has an edge on the house.

At university, he and a friend decided to collect data from a number of offshore sportsbooks, and start placing arbitrage bets: playing on the discrepancies in odds given by different betting sites.

“If the odds on the Lakers are really good on one site, and the odds on the Pacers are really good on another site, you could bet on basically both teams on different sportsbooks and make guaranteed profit,” he said.

That project was a student lark in 2017. But in 2025, he remembered it when he was suddenly laid off from his full-time job, just as prediction markets were taking off.

“I’m a spiritual, religious person,” he said. “The more secular people would say, this opportunity is coincidence. But in my head, I was like, this is a sign of something to some extent. Let me lean into this.”

So Francia started Prediction Hunt, a Discord channel and online community where thousands of people gather to trade tips and ideas for how to make money – and bet smart – on Polymarket. The Guardian spent roughly three weeks in this Discord channel.

There are alerts to track “fade” bets, where you try to follow the smart money: profitable wallets were betting “yes” on the Iranian regime falling by 30 April, for example, while unprofitable wallets were betting “no”.

There are alerts to track potential insiders, so you can copy their bets: one of these appears to have an inside line on interest rate decisions by the US Federal Reserve.

Getting these details right will be important but overall I am pleased that the news now regularly reports prediction market data when reporting stories–this is disciplining news from noise, something I predicted long ago in Entrepreneurial Economics.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/prediction-market-details.html/feed 35 92818 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/my-south-africa-dialogue-with-ann-bernstein.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=my-south-africa-dialogue-with-ann-bernstein My South Africa dialogue with Ann Bernstein https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/953712116/0/marginalrevolution~My-South-Africa-dialogue-with-Ann-Bernstein.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/my-south-africa-dialogue-with-ann-bernstein.html#comments Mon, 13 Apr 2026 07:20:25 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92814 An edited transcript is here.

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An edited transcript is here.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/my-south-africa-dialogue-with-ann-bernstein.html/feed 9 92814 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/self-driving-vehicles-and-the-cross-country-drive.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=self-driving-vehicles-and-the-cross-country-drive Self-driving vehicles and the cross-country drive https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/953708828/0/marginalrevolution~Selfdriving-vehicles-and-the-crosscountry-drive.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/self-driving-vehicles-and-the-cross-country-drive.html#comments Mon, 13 Apr 2026 04:51:26 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92815 Following my post on cross-country driving, a reader asked me about this prospect but I suppose I am skeptical. First, self-driving vehicles make it too easy to read a book or stare at your phone.  Driving yourself fixes your attention on what is unfolding before your eyes, and forces you to keep it there.  You […]

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]]> Following my post on cross-country driving, a reader asked me about this prospect but I suppose I am skeptical.

First, self-driving vehicles make it too easy to read a book or stare at your phone.  Driving yourself fixes your attention on what is unfolding before your eyes, and forces you to keep it there.  You might be bored for an hour, but you will catch periodic gems by always looking at the road before you and to the side.

Second, at least for a while self-driving vehicles will not be allowed to exceed speed limits.  Good luck with that.  A lot of America is marked at 25 mph when you can go 36 mph or maybe even 37 mph in a responsible manner.

Third, many of the best moments in cross-country driving come from the unexpected swerve — “hey, that looks interesting!”  And half of the time it is not.  Will the self-driving vehicle know when you might wish to swerve and pull over?

Fourth, there is something to be said for integrating the rhythms of your body with those of the car.  When you drive yourself, you feel the trip in a way the Waymo does not give you.  I would stress this point is a negative for most car trips, though perhaps not for a cross-country drive.  If you do not enjoy driving through the USA, maybe do not do the cross-country thing at all?  Walking through Paris or Istanbul remains a lovely alternative.

Automation and better AI might eventually solve or address some of those problems.  But the next available round of self-driving vehicles probably will not.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/self-driving-vehicles-and-the-cross-country-drive.html/feed 63 92815 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/orban-concedes.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=orban-concedes Orbán concedes https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/953700443/0/marginalrevolution~Orb%c3%a1n-concedes.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/orban-concedes.html#comments Sun, 12 Apr 2026 21:47:37 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92820 And that is in Hungary, which does not have much of a democratic tradition.  People who suggest that democracy seriously is in danger in the United States need to rethink their world views (this claim however is slightly exaggerated).  The problem instead is that democracy does not always bring you desired results…

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]]> And that is in Hungary, which does not have much of a democratic tradition.  People who suggest that democracy seriously is in danger in the United States need to rethink their world views (this claim however is slightly exaggerated).  The problem instead is that democracy does not always bring you desired results…

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/orban-concedes.html/feed 126 92820 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/my-dialogue-with-jonathan-zittrain.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=my-dialogue-with-jonathan-zittrain My dialogue with Jonathan Zittrain https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/953695391/0/marginalrevolution~My-dialogue-with-Jonathan-Zittrain.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/my-dialogue-with-jonathan-zittrain.html#comments Sun, 12 Apr 2026 17:45:48 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92813 At Harvard Law School, Jonathan is consistently excellent.

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At Harvard Law School, Jonathan is consistently excellent.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/my-dialogue-with-jonathan-zittrain.html/feed 6 92813 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/sunday-assorted-links-562.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=sunday-assorted-links-562 Sunday assorted links https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/953693807/0/marginalrevolution~Sunday-assorted-links.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/sunday-assorted-links-562.html#comments Sun, 12 Apr 2026 16:14:35 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92806 1. Have recessions disappeared? 2. Humans are losing the fight against flying fish (WSJ). 3. In this study expert judges preferred the AI writing. 4. Helium is hard to replace. 5. Does using AI for legal research and work limit later comprehension? (No, it seems) 6. Can the CCP contain LLMs?

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]]> 1. Have recessions disappeared?

2. Humans are losing the fight against flying fish (WSJ).

3. In this study expert judges preferred the AI writing.

4. Helium is hard to replace.

5. Does using AI for legal research and work limit later comprehension? (No, it seems)

6. Can the CCP contain LLMs?

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/sunday-assorted-links-562.html/feed 72 92806 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/staged-homes-sell-for-more-than-empty-homes.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=staged-homes-sell-for-more-than-empty-homes Staged homes sell for more than empty homes https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/953677208/0/marginalrevolution~Staged-homes-sell-for-more-than-empty-homes.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/staged-homes-sell-for-more-than-empty-homes.html#comments Sun, 12 Apr 2026 07:12:43 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92809 We examine the economic impact of non-consumable visual cues through home staging on high-stakes housing transactions. Using hand-collected listing photos for 15,777 transactions and a machine-learning algorithm to detect furniture, we provide the first large-scale evidence that staged homes sell for roughly 10% more and one week faster than comparable homes without furniture. Our pre-registered […]

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We examine the economic impact of non-consumable visual cues through home staging on high-stakes housing transactions. Using hand-collected listing photos for 15,777 transactions and a machine-learning algorithm to detect furniture, we provide the first large-scale evidence that staged homes sell for roughly 10% more and one week faster than comparable homes without furniture. Our pre-registered online experiment establishes causality and uncovers mechanisms. We find that furniture clarifies spatial use, while decor enhances emotional attachment, jointly driving the higher willingness-to-pay. These findings demonstrate how visual cues impact high-stakes decisions and systematically shape valuations in the largest asset market for households.

That is from Puja Bhattacharya, et.al., via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/staged-homes-sell-for-more-than-empty-homes.html/feed 36 92809 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/another-possible-cyberequilibrium-from-my-email.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=another-possible-cyberequilibrium-from-my-email Another possible cyberequilibrium? (from my email) https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/953674061/0/marginalrevolution~Another-possible-cyberequilibrium-from-my-email.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/another-possible-cyberequilibrium-from-my-email.html#comments Sun, 12 Apr 2026 04:21:46 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92811 I would not wish to bet on this, but it is an interesting idea: I wonder if the cyber capabilities of Mythos and future models ultimately lower the returns to ‘hacking,’ perhaps below the point where such efforts are worth investing in. Say you’re a nefarious actor and uncover a critical, zero-day exploit in an […]

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]]> I would not wish to bet on this, but it is an interesting idea:

I wonder if the cyber capabilities of Mythos and future models ultimately lower the returns to ‘hacking,’ perhaps below the point where such efforts are worth investing in.

Say you’re a nefarious actor and uncover a critical, zero-day exploit in an important system. How do you extract the most value from that exploit? There are more valuable and less valuable times to deploy it, and usually the best time won’t be “immediately.” You may only get to deploy it once or a small number of times. You have to consider:

  1. How long do I expect the vulnerability to persist?
  2. What material gain do I get by exploiting it at a given time?
  3. How does exploiting it increase my personal risk (by focusing countermeasures in my direction)?

The answer to (1) is now “a much shorter time than before”, while 2 and 3 are mostly unchanged. In the new world, yes, exploits are much easier to find, but the expected value of a given exploit has also shrunk. The odds of an opportune moment falling within the ‘window of usefulness’ of that exploit are much lower. It’s plausible that the new equilibrium becomes “it’s not even worth spending money to find vulnerabilities in most systems, because the chances of being able to do something useful with it before it’s patched is close to zero.”

Much of the fear around cybersecurity vulnerabilities is something like: our adversaries accumulate a pile of highly damaging (to physical infrastructure, military assets, communication systems, …) exploits, which in the event of a conflict they then rapidly deploy to cause damage. Mythos would seem to favor defense here, because the usable lifetime of any exploit is much shorter. Any cyberattack that is timing-dependent now has lower utility.

Yes, there are more mundane cybersecurity concerns like ransomware or data theft, but these aren’t hugely significant in the scheme of things. And I would expect within a few years we’ll have fairly robust tools for automated vulnerability discovery and patching that any large business that cares about these things can deploy.

No doubt this assumes you can trust those in control of the leading-edge models. But even if you’re a bit behind, the situation may not be so bad. There isn’t an infinite supply of exploits, and again, most of them only need to be found ‘fast enough’ in order to mitigate the damage.

From Jacob Gloudemans.

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]]> https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/another-possible-cyberequilibrium-from-my-email.html/feed 25 92811 https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/the-wisdom-of-roon.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-wisdom-of-roon The wisdom of Roon https://feeds.feedblitz.com/~/953664170/0/marginalrevolution~The-wisdom-of-Roon.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/the-wisdom-of-roon.html#comments Sat, 11 Apr 2026 19:09:53 +0000 https://marginalrevolution.com/?p=92807 renaissance rationalization is a process that commodified itself rapidly: despite the europeans discovering most technology during the early modern period it spread everywhere within a few centuries, and the rate of spread has been increasing dramatically knowledge of the scientific frontier dissipates around the world faster as science has enabled better communication technologies. it’s getting even […]

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renaissance rationalization is a process that commodified itself rapidly: despite the europeans discovering most technology during the early modern period it spread everywhere within a few centuries, and the rate of spread has been increasing dramatically

knowledge of the scientific frontier dissipates around the world faster as science has enabled better communication technologies. it’s getting even faster with INTELLIGENCE technologies which actually explain themselves and help you build them

as we approach more powerful intelligence, the ability to train powerful models is self commodifying rather than building a huge and runaway advantage for a handful of recursive self improvers. this is one reason why you should expect almost all of the benefits of superintelligence to be captured by the public

Here is the tweet.  That said, it would be useful to relax constraints on the supply of both energy and land, so that the benefits could diffuse more widely yet.

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