Precious Metals News & Analysis - Gold News, Silver News from Money Metals Exchange

The Gold Repatriation Trend Congress Should Notice

Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up don’t miss a tremendous interview with highly respected economist Daniel Lacalle, fund manager, professor of Global Economy at the IE Business School in Madrid, Spain, and author of Escape from the Central Bank Trap, among other books.

Daniel and Mike Maharrey discuss the recent European Central Bank rate hike and what that may mean the Fed and thus the markets. Daniel also boldly asserts that those who sell their gold and silver when interest rates are rising simply have it backwards and just don’t understand how the monetary system works. And he explains how when governments raise interest rates to combat higher inflation it’s a sign that you need to own more precious metals, not less.

So, stick around for an enlightening conversation with Daniel Lacalle about that and a whole lot more, coming this week’s market update. And as a reminder please download, like, rate and subscribe to this podcast wherever you consume this content.

Gold and silver have taken a pretty good beating over the past couple of days, with rising interest-rate expectations and still more turmoil in the Persian Gulf weighing on the metals.

Gold fell roughly 2% Thursday, while silver plunged more than 5%.

And the strange part is that the selloff comes as inflation appears to be heating up again.

Wholesale prices jumped 0.4% in August, and this morning’s consumer inflation report also came in somewhat hot beneath the surface. Energy prices are climbing, oil is back above $100 a barrel, and inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s target.

So naturally, traders sold gold and silver.

Why?

Well, because Wall Street is focused almost entirely on what the Federal Reserve might do next week.

The latest inflation numbers dramatically increased expectations for another Fed rate hike. That pushed the dollar higher and gave traders another excuse to dump precious metals in the short run.

But investors shouldn’t confuse the market’s knee-jerk reaction with the bigger picture.

Gold isn’t falling because the inflation problem has gone away. Quite the opposite.

Inflation remains elevated. Energy costs are surging amid Middle East turmoil.

Washington continues piling up debt. And the Fed is once again confronting the same ugly problem it has created for itself.

Raise rates to fight inflation, and the federal government’s enormous debt becomes even more expensive to carry. Back off, and inflation may get another lease on life.

That’s some choice.

For the moment, traders are concentrating on the first part of that equation. Higher rates can strengthen the dollar and temporarily make interest-bearing investments look more attractive relative to gold.

Silver, as usual, is taking the move even harder.

That’s just part of silver’s personality. It tends to exaggerate moves in both directions — soaring faster when metals are running up and getting smacked harder when traders head for the exits.

The $62.50 to $63 area now looks important for silver, while gold has fallen back and tested the low-$4,300s. Both metals are regaining some strength here today though, more on that in a moment.

But after the extraordinary run both metals have enjoyed late last year and early this year, a sharp correction shouldn’t exactly shock anyone.

The fundamental problems that helped drive this bull market haven’t disappeared.

America still has enormous deficits and debt. Inflation remains a problem. Geopolitical risks are intensifying. Central banks around the world continue questioning their dependence on the dollar and the Western financial system.

And that brings us to another fascinating gold story this week.

Spain is now debating whether it should bring home some gold reserves currently stored in the United States.

The Bank of Spain owns roughly 289 metric tons of gold. Most of it apparently is already held inside Spain, and exactly how much remains in New York isn’t publicly known.

But the important point isn’t the precise number of bars Spain might move.

It’s that Spain is asking the question at all.

And Spain isn’t alone.

As we reported on last week in this space, the Netherlands recently moved 86 tonnes of gold out of North America and into London, explicitly citing geopolitical uncertainty and the need to be better prepared for a crisis.

France has also completed a repatriation project involving gold that had been stored in New York.

One country moving gold might be a curiosity.

Several countries reconsidering where their gold is stored starts to look like a trend.

And frankly, their reasoning is pretty easy to understand.

If gold is supposed to be the ultimate reserve asset — the thing you rely on when currencies, governments, banking systems, or international relationships get into trouble — then where exactly do you want your gold sitting when trouble arrives?

Central banks are rediscovering an old lesson: possession matters.

And so does geography.

Which brings us directly to a problem here in the United States.

For years, America has allowed the physical infrastructure supporting our regulated gold and silver futures markets to become overwhelmingly concentrated in and around New York.

Virtually the entire COMEX delivery system for gold and silver depends on vaulting infrastructure clustered in one small part of the country.

Why?

There’s no sound risk-management reason for it.

Concentrating critical financial infrastructure in one geographic area creates a single point of failure. That should be obvious whether we’re talking about computer servers, military installations, banking operations — or vaults containing billions of dollars in precious metals.

That’s precisely why Congress should pass the bipartisan SILVER Act.

The legislation would promote a geographically diverse network of qualified precious-metals depositories, including at least two approved facilities in each of America’s four major time zones.

It doesn’t dictate which private companies win approval.

It doesn’t tell investors where they have to store anything.

It simply recognizes something that ought to be common sense: America’s precious-metals market shouldn’t depend almost entirely on New York.

And this isn’t merely an industry talking point.

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig has publicly backed the legislation and acknowledged the risk created by geographic concentration.

So, consider the irony here.

European central banks are looking at the world becoming more unstable and saying, “Maybe we shouldn’t keep so much of our gold so far away.”

Meanwhile, the United States continues concentrating much of the physical infrastructure behind its own gold and silver markets in one geographic bottleneck.
That makes very little sense.

A hurricane. A terrorist attack. A transportation shutdown. A communications failure. A financial crisis. Or some entirely unforeseen event.

You don’t have to predict which crisis comes next to understand why redundancy matters.

Banks understand that. Data centers understand that. The military certainly understands that. And European central banks increasingly seem to understand it too.

Congress should get the message.

The SILVER Act is straightforward, bipartisan market-structure reform. It would reduce geographic concentration risk, improve resiliency, and help ensure that America’s precious-metals markets remain functional when they are needed most.

Central banks are increasingly asking where their gold should be stored before the next crisis arrives.

Washington ought to be asking the same question about the infrastructure underpinning America’s gold and silver markets.

Congress has had ample warning.

It should stop waiting and pass the SILVER Act.

Well, finally, taking a look at the weekly price action specifics here before we get to this week’s exclusive interview. Gold is paring some of its losses from earlier in the week here with today’s bump. The yellow metal checks in now at $4,379 – down about $50 or 1.1% since last Friday’s close.

Similar story in silver, it’s moving up today to stop some of the bleeding. With today’s near $1 advance the white metal is now down just $1 for the week or 1.5% and currently trades at $65.23 an ounce.

A quick look at the PGMs shows platinum down 1.0% to trade at $1,806, while palladium is taking it on the chin – declining 4.4% this week with just a few hours left to go. The industrial metal comes in at $1,333 as of this Friday late morning recording.

Well now, without further delay, and for much more on the state of the markets, monetary policy, geopolitics and the metals, let’s get right to this week’s exclusive interview.

Mike Maharrey: Greetings. I'm Mike Maharrey and I'm joined today by economist Daniel Lecalle. Daniel is a professor at IE Business School in Madrid. He is also a fund manager and provides economic analysis for a number of organizations. He's the author of several books and a great economist and somebody I follow pretty closely. How are you doing today, Daniel?

Daniel Lacalle: Doing very well. Thank you very much for inviting me. It's always a pleasure.

Mike Maharrey: Oh, it's absolutely a pleasure. And we timed this really well given that the European Central Bank had a meeting and made a rate hike decision and has decided to bump up interest rates. And I saw what you posted on X, and you called it a hike “for no good reason.” Can you explain what your thinking is on this move?

Daniel Lacalle: Well, let's start by analyzing monetary aggregates. When you see monetary aggregates in the Euro area, you see that loans to the private sector, credit card demand, everything that has to do with money supply growth, et cetera, are all very, very subdued. In fact, they don't show an overheated economy in any shape or form. Furthermore, most of the money supply growth that we are seeing, which is still below nominal GDP growth, is government spending. So the ECB hiking rates has no discernible impact on inflation. Let's start from that perspective. The economy is not overheated. Number two, most of the inflation that we saw in the August print was a hike, an increase of 14% in the energy component. And then the other element is that government spending and government deficits are just out of control all over the Euro area. So the private sector is not going through the roof in terms of credit, in terms of taking debt.

It's actually the opposite. And the economy is not growing. It's stagnant as you know very well. So the ECB hiking rate has no impact on oil prices or on natural gas prices. Obviously, it will not deliver more barrels of oil or more molecules of natural gas. And that rate hike is going to fall entirely on the shoulders of the private sector, particularly families and small and medium enterprises. Think about this. In the Euro area, small and medium enterprises have a cost of financing that moves between seven and 12%. This is brutal. A hike of 25 basis points is not irrelevant as some of the defenders of the ECB are telling me today. They're saying, why do you care about 25 basis points? It's simply a nudge. No, it is not. For small and medium enterprises, this means going from highly expensive credit to no credit at all.

A lot of banks are going to hold cash and try to maintain as much cash at the ECB, obviously higher rates, than to take the risk of lending. So all these elements show that what they're going to do is engineer a private sector recession in a sector that is already burdened by inflation. And more importantly, the real cause of inflation that you and I know very well, which is massive government spending, huge printing, et cetera, all of that continues. All of the liquidity facilities that allow governments in the Euro area to borrow at completely insanely low rates compared with their solvency remain. Therefore, it's yet again a measure that is going to hurt families and businesses and that will have no impact on what really causes inflation and zero impact on energy prices.

Mike Maharrey: Very well put. So, coming across the pond to the US, the Federal Reserve is going to meet in September, and I think most people are kind of thinking that the Fed is going to hike rates. Do you think this move by the ECB kind of adds to that hiking expectation? And would you make the same type of analysis when it comes to US interest rates?

Daniel Lacalle: I would make the same analysis in terms of the fact that a rate hike in the United States will have zero impact on energy prices and will have no impact whatsoever on government spending and deficit. Therefore, it will only hurt small businesses and families. But in the United States, there's an additional element that needs to be considered, which is full employment. The Fed has a double mandate. It's stable prices and full employment. The Fed is not going to bring down the price of oil or the price of natural gas, and obviously hiking rates would be completely useless as a tool in that front. But in terms of employment, it is going to be absolutely brutal because 90% of the job creation in the United States as in the Euro area or any developed economy comes from small and medium enterprises. We have already seen that job creation is significantly less robust than other macro indicators, and that comes mostly from the very aggressive levels of financing costs that small and medium enterprises suffer in the United States.

In the United States, the cost of financing of small and medium enterprises is not as monstrous as the one I mentioned in the Euro area, but it's also very high, 6.5% to 8.5%. And that would again mean that they would have no access to credit. So in terms of job creation, it would be hugely negative and they know it. By the way, there is a paper published by the New York Fed that shows that being above the neutral rate in the average Fed funds tends to destroy about a million jobs every year. So once we look at all those things, the Fed, considering that it has a double mandate, has even less reasons than the ECB to hike rates. And I think that those elements need to be considered. It would be hugely detrimental for the US economy.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. You've hit on something, and this is one of my big bugaboos. And I talk about this constantly because it frustrates me so much. And that's the conflation of price inflation with monetary inflation. We just use the same word for all of that. And Ludwig von Mises warned us about this many, many years ago that this was going to be a problem. And so I'm wondering if you maybe can explain to the audience better than I can, because I really seem to struggle with this, how monetary inflation and price shocks like oil shocks aren't the same thing and can't be approached in the same manner, which is what the policymakers seem to want to do.

Daniel Lacalle: Exactly. Policymakers and Keynesian economists always try to bring you to the argument of individual prices. Oil prices are up, therefore inflation is up. No, that's not true. If that was the case in 2022, 2023 and 2024, we would've had deflation. So, we need to differentiate between individual prices and aggregate prices. For the same amount of money, if oil prices go up due to an energy shock, whatever it is, et cetera, the amount of money in the system to purchase the remaining goods and services is lower. Therefore, high oil prices don't mean higher inflation because for the same amount of money, you would have less units of currency to purchase other goods and services. Therefore, the price of other goods and services would remain stable or come down. A lot of people say a war is inflationary. Oil prices are inflationary. No, they're not. They are disinflationary.

Daniel Lacalle: The only thing that makes oil prices go up, remain high and continue to go up, abate at a lower rate, that is monetary inflation. That is the destruction of the purchasing power of a currency. Excuse me. So what citizens need to understand is that what they feel, which is very, very emotional and very true, is monetary inflation, which is, okay, they're telling me that CPI is 3.5%, but housing prices are through the roof. I cannot afford the college of my kids. I cannot purchase the same goods and services that I used to purchase on a monthly basis even with a higher salary and even with some savings. That is monetary inflation.

CPI, the one that and PCE, the baskets that the Fed uses to conduct monetary policy and that every central bank in the world uses to conduct monetary policies are baskets of goods and services that are taking a number of assumptions. But for example, if I am a middle low class person, I am going to have a higher percentage of my purchases coming from food and energy. Therefore, CPI doesn't mean anything to me because to me, the fact that gas prices and food prices are higher is much more relevant. If I am richer, I may use more leisure technology, things like that. Those are disinflationary, and therefore I may be able to even forget about the fact that gas prices and that food prices are going up. Monetary inflation is so difficult to understand by people because they think that the currency that they're using remains stable in value and stable in purchasing power over time.

And that prices, instead of reflecting the loss of purchasing power of the currency, what they are reflecting is the decisions of entrepreneurs, of businesses. So that's why people blame high prices on the one that puts the sign at the door. They see the sign at the door, they say bread, one and a half dollars, a small loaf of bread. They say, "What the hell? These people are crazy." But they blame the guy that's putting the sign, not the one that has debased the currency, and that's the government. And that's why it's so easy for socialists to present themselves as the solution to affordability printing money, because when they create much higher inflation than what we are seeing today, which they would, what they do is to blame the ones that give the signs, that put the signs on the door.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. And that's exactly what we're seeing in the political rhetoric here in the United States now. We're seeing this kind of resurgence of "democratic socialism." And it's that this has failed us, so therefore these people can fix it because. And again, as you point out, they're blaming the wrong thing. These people are actually going to make it worse.

Daniel Lacalle: Yeah, that's the thing is that people don't seem to understand that the problems created by big government and huge money printing are not going to be solved by bigger government and much higher money printing, rather the opposite.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, exactly. So I'm curious about this. Looking at the debt, and we've talked a little bit about the amount of debt that we see in the system. Recently, the US has been in the news, the Treasury Department, the bond buybacks and stuff has kind of created a lot of speculation and talk about debt. You actually said that we're worried about the wrong country when we're focused on all this in the US. Who should we be worried about? Where's the big problem in your view?

Daniel Lacalle: Every time that you read a lot of headlines about the US debt, they don't mean that the things that they're talking about are wrong, but they're always trying to disguise a much bigger problem elsewhere in countries that are less, let's say, favored by the media in terms of creating headlines. It is a much larger problem in France, in the Euro area, in Japan or the UK. Not because the US debt problem is not a problem, but because in those countries on top of the high debt, high deficit and high borrowing costs, what you see is that the unfinanced committed liabilities are rising much faster. Every time that people talk about debt, they talk about issued debt. There's 40 trillion issued debt. I don't care about 40. And I think it was the Secretary of State of the Treasury, Mr. Bessent, that said, "I don't know why people talk about 30 trillion or 40 trillion. That's just a number."

Well, I don't care about the 40 trillion because it's already in the asset base of investors. I care about the not finance, the unfinanced committed liabilities. This, if you think of an iceberg, I call it the part of the iceberg that you don't see that's below the water. In the case of France, that is about 500%, 450% of GDP. Case of Germany, it's about 350% of GDP. This is on top of governments that refuse to reduce their public spending and that refuse to reduce their deficit spending. It's very, very clear. So the United States has one benefit. The race of global debt is not a race to see who wins, but who loses first. Why? Because if you think about monetary and fiscal policy, there are two sides of the same coin. Debt and currency are the same thing. The US is the world reserve currency.

When other countries copy the US but don't have the world reserve currency, they're doing two things. One is accelerating and strengthening the role of the US dollar as the fiat reserve currency and weakening their position as a contender. And I think that this is super important because people don't understand. People think, "Oh, the deficit in the United States is unsustainable." It is, we agree on that. But when you talk about global debt, the problem is not the United States. The United States debt is still the asset that moves the entire financial system. That is not the case with the Euro area debt, with Japanese debt, or with UK debt. And that's why every time that we have a huge scare in markets, it's always led by Japan or the UK followed by France, and then all of the media talks about the United States, which I come back to the point.

I'm not denying that the United States has a debt problem, but it's not the same debt problem and unfinanced committed liability problem of the comparable nations. So, when you look at the fiat world, what that is doing is that instead of de-dollarization, what we are seeing is re-dollarization, is that the world is, yes, reducing the amount of sovereign debt from developed economies in their asset basis. Absolutely they are. And that's why bond yields of all sovereign debt, all OECD big, big economies is rising in tandem. But the United States is not the one that's rising fastest. Rising yields have been much higher with the UK, with the French economy and with Japan. And it's very important coming back, if you allow me to extend myself, with this idea of democratic socialism. It's an oxymoron. Democratic socialism doesn't exist. It's a way of tricking you to accept a system of serfdom.

But to think about this, if all those people that are saying that the United States debt is a disaster, at the same time are saying that the United States should have the same policies, the same government spending and the same taxation as France, the UK, Germany, or Japan, and they're in much worse position, then obviously the solution is not more government, more taxes and more levels of intervention. Because if you think about it, if government intervention, massive regulation, immigration, high taxes, and big spending were the solutions to the global economy, France today would be the leader in terms of economic growth, in terms of productivity, in terms of job creation, and would have very solid finances. And it is absolutely the opposite.

Mike Maharrey: It's interesting that you mention UK. I was just looking at the ETF data from last month, and the UK had the second largest gold inflows in their gold-backed ETF funds ever in the last month. So obviously, the folks in UK know that something's up. I'm curious if you think that the situation with the debt and the fiscal malfeasance in the Eurozone and in Japan as well, is that something that could spread like a contagion throughout the financial system and create a global crisis or are we waiting for the US to lead the way on that? How do you see that playing out?

Daniel Lacalle: I don't think it would create a financial crisis because ultimately what happens is that the entire system is built on the fact that sovereign debt is sort of the cushion of the system. The problem is that when sovereign debt stops being the reserve asset of first decision for central banks and stops being the reserve quality asset that gives you a real return in periods of crisis or low economic growth, then what happens is what you get is not a financial crisis. What you get is stagnation. And that's why people like Stiglitz, people like Piketty say, "Ah, high debt is not a problem. High debt is not a problem as long as you borrow at a cheap rate that is something that you can continue to add forever." No, no, it is a problem because once governments have exceeded the economic limit, the fiscal limit and the inflationary limit, what happens is that the economy, the entire economy moves upside down.

The central bank and the banking system is built basically just to perpetuate the sovereign debt bubble and lending to the real economy, the productive economy gets a second-best option or third best option in fact. And that obviously leads to stagnation, low productivity growth, low real wages therefore, and persistent inflation. So that is basically when you have a real estate bubble, the bubble breaks and you get a slump in prices, then everything reprices, corrects itself and then goes back to growth. However, when you have a sovereign debt bubble, everything just boom, just stagnates. And that's the problem. The problem is that, and the trick as well, obviously, because by then it is very, very difficult for any government to go out and say, "Oh, what we need to do is to implement a big government spending plan." Why? Because you implement a big government spending plan that does not even start to scratch interest on the debt of every year, and then they blame you for the cuts.

And at the same time, debt continues to rise because interest expenses are rising.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. It's a kind of a nasty self-perpetuating cycle – as my friend Scott Horton likes to say a self-licking ice cream cone.

Daniel Lacalle: Yeah, absolutely right. That's a very good analogy.

Mike Maharrey: So, I kind of wanted you to touch on this. You just mentioned it, but I'd like for you to kind of emphasize it. There's a crowding out effect of all of this government spending on the private economy, right? That's one of the things that I don't think people pay a lot of attention to. We look at the cost of the debt and those kind of things, but in a very real way, when you have all of these governments spending all this money, it's crowding out private sector investment, right?

Daniel Lacalle: Of course it is. And it's very easy to see. When people have a credit card and the interest rate on the credit card goes to 23, 24%, that in itself is the fact that you are subsidizing the cost of borrowing that the government would've had if it was issuing debt according to its solvency and real ability to pay ratios. When you think that governments don't crowd out investment, think about the following. Go to a bank and ask for credit, how difficult it is to get credit in a bank these days and how easy it is, not easy, how absolutely no problem it is for governments to reissue and refinance debt even in periods in which there is, for example, a government shutdown. When you had a government shutdown, US demand for US treasuries rose.

So, people need to understand that every time that the government is borrowing, the amount of liquidity in the system is being hoarded by a part of the economy that is not producing anything, that is just administering. So the part that is producing is receiving less. The people that say that there is no crowding out say, "Oh no, no, no, no. There's ample liquidity for everybody else." But if they don't want to take credit, no, no, no, no, no, no, my friend. If the government is borrowing at 5% for 10 years and you have to borrow at 20%, there's a huge difference because you and I are generating productive investments while the government is simply regurgitating current spending. No?

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, absolutely. And you talk about the government administering, it doesn't seem to administer very well either.

Daniel Lacalle: It doesn't administer actually. Yeah, you're right.

Mike Maharrey: Personally, I would like a little less administering in my life. So, the majority of the audience here are interested in gold and silver. They're typically gold and silver investors. And all of this talk about rising interest rates, the Fed hiking rates, the ECB hiking rates, all of this tends to be negative for precious metals in the markets. At least you watch the tickers and if you see expectations of a rate hike, then you'll see a gold and silver bus selling off. And of course it's because gold and silver are non-yielding assets. And so we're entering into, it appears, a bond market or a bear market in bonds, and a number of analysts think this could be a long-term bond market. How would you talk to a gold and silver investor that might be thinking, "Well, if interest rates are going to go up, maybe I should sell my gold." Is this the time to sell gold or do we still need that hedge?

Daniel Lacalle: No. If you think about it, you need to understand that gold and silver are not going to go up in unison and in a straight line, that there will be some periods of volatility. But if you sell silver and gold because there is a rate hike, then it's because you don't understand money. Because a rate hike is the evidence that the solvency of governments is being less and less credible. It's also the evidence of persistent inflation. Persistent inflation means that the government is spending way too more, way more than what the private sector demands, and that it's generating more units of currency. So when you think about gold and silver, you're absolutely right. There are non-yielding assets, but to think that it is better to buy the bond of an insolvent nation that gives you 5% relative to something that has proven to be a reserve of value unit of measure and generalized method of payment, i.e.

Real money as gold is. In reality, what you should see is that if rate hikes are coming, it's basically because the government is not going to give you real economic returns on it on their debt. So you may get a 5%, but guess what happens with the currency and guess what happens with the underlying asset, i.e. You don't get real economic returns. That's why the sovereign debt market has been in a recession since 2022. It has not recovered from the 2021 highs.
So, selling silver and gold, because there's a rate hike, means that you don't understand money, means that you don't understand what is happening in terms of the monetary debasement. And what you need to think is the following. If there's a correction in gold and silver, it is coming from a paper market that exceeds at least by 30 times the physical market. And I'm being conservative if I'm not wrong. The paper market is basically just selling and buying ETFs, which are just financial products that are linked to the price of gold and the price of silver not having any underlying gold or silver. So once you understand that, it is logical that there are some elements of volatility, but you need to use those elements of volatility not to sell, but to buy. Every time you see those kinds of V-shaped moves in gold and silver, there's certainly opportunities to add to a position not to sell.

Mike Maharrey: I couldn't have said that better myself. And I emphasize all the time too, you look at just inflation, and when I say inflation, I mean monetary inflation. 2% is the plan, right? They plan to debase our money. We know that. And of course the debasement is always worse than the plan. So if for no other reason, if I'm going to try to preserve my wealth over a long period of time, I need, as you say, real money. So very well said. So before I let you go, I do want you to have an opportunity to let folks know where they can follow you. I know you're active on X. You've got your own blog and website. You've got fantastic articles and you're one of my favorite posters on X. You always have meaty posts, so let folks know where they can find you.

Daniel Lacalle: Okay. I think it's very easy to find me. If you Google Daniel Lacalle, you can find me very, very easily. My only recommendation to every one of you is that when you find me, there's always a Spanish and an English account. So look a little bit and make sure that you subscribe to my X English account, which is Daniel Lacaye official@dlacaye_ia. And you also subscribe to my YouTube channel in English, and you can also subscribe or follow my website, dlacaye.com/en. But basically just key in my name and always remember that if the first thing that you see is a Spanish language account, you will have also a separate English one.

Mike Maharrey: Absolutely. And do you have any projects you're working on right now? Are you writing any books? What have you got on your plate right now?

Daniel Lacalle: I'm working on new book, which is about the global energy battle that we are seeing right now. Everything that has to do, not just technology, but what is happening with renewables, why fossil fuels are coming back with a vengeance, everything that is happening between China and the United States. So it's a little bit about the big battle in energy. I will let you know when it's out.

Mike Maharrey: Absolutely. When that comes out, we'll have to definitely have you on to talk about it. That sounds like a fascinating subject and glad your mind is on it. So we'll look forward to that. Thank you so much for coming on. I know it's getting late in the evening over there where you are in Europe, so thank you so much for working your schedule to hang out with me. I really appreciate it, and we'll definitely have you back on as things continue to unwind or evolve in the days and weeks ahead.

Daniel Lacalle: Always a pleasure. Thank you so much.

Mike Maharrey: Thank you.

Really good stuff there and I especially like the way Daniel put it in terms of why rising interest rates should drive folks to buy more metals, not less – great points there from Mr. Lacalle.

Well, I hope you enjoyed that interview as I did, and that will do it for this week. Be sure to check back next Friday for our next Weekly Market Wrap Podcast. And don’t miss our second weekly podcast, the Money Metals Midweek Memo available each Wednesday. To check out any of our audio programs just visit https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">MoneyMetals.com/podcasts or find them on places like Spotify, Apple Podcasts Google Podcasts, and other popular podcast platforms. And as a big help to us we would ask you to please like, subscribe, download and rate our podcasts. Doing so helps us extend the reach of this material.

Until next time, this has been Mike Gleason with https://www.moneymetals.com/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Money Metals Exchange, thanks for listening and have a wonderful weekend everybody.

The Fed Will Hike! Or It Won't. It Really Shouldn't Matter to a Gold or Silver Investor

Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Will they? Or won’t they?

That’s the question on everybody’s mind. Will the Federal Reserve finally pull the trigger and hike interest rates at next week's September meeting?

I’m about 50-50, maybe leaning slightly toward a hike. However, I don’t think it ultimately matters, because even if they do nudge rates up, I’m almost certain it will be a one-and-done tightening cycle.

And no. A rate hike isn’t bearish for gold and silver – as conventional wisdom would have you believe.

It’s Decision Time

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I’ve been writing about https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/19/gold-the-federal-reserve-and-a-catch-22-004773";>the Federal Reserve’s Catch-22 for months. The Fed simultaneously needs to hike rates to keep price inflation under control and cut rates to support the debt-riddled bubble economy.

It can’t do both.

So, which will it choose?

It feels like we are about to find out.

The situation has come to a proverbial head. If Warsh hikes at this meeting, it could tip the economy into a full-blown crisis. But if he doesn’t, he risks appearing feckless and weak.

Historically, central bankers ultimately cave to the economy. We’ve seen it time after time. When there is even a hint of a crisis, central banks tend to step in with monetary easing – inflation or no. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has muddied the water by talking himself into a corner.

You see, the new Fed chair wants you to know he’s going to be tough on inflation.

No, really.

He’s going to be super tough on inflation. He’s said it over and over again.

Think back to his https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/31/fed-chair-warsh-runs-open-mouth-operations-at-jackson-hole-but-can-he-deliver-005173";>Jackson Hole speech just a few weeks ago.

“The Fed's price-stability objective of 2 percent, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/04/what-is-the-pce-and-why-is-it-the-feds-favorite-inflation-gauge-005110";>PCE) price index, is a firm, fixed target,” Warsh went on to emphasize that it’s the central bank’s job to keep inflation reined in.

“That’s our job, our mandate, and our charge to keep.”

Warsh pointed out that “price stability is not self-executing, nor is inflation necessarily mean-reverting.”

“It is the Fed's job to deliver stable prices.”

This sounds like a man ready to hike rates to the moon.

Of course, talk is cheap. For all the jaw flapping, the Fed hasn’t done anything yet. So, is it just a lot of noise?

Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 70 to 72 chance of a quarter-percentage-point rate hike next week.

I can appreciate their reasoning. Price inflation remains mired well above the mythical 2 percent target. Oil prices spiked again over the last few weeks, reigniting inflation fears. (An oil price shock isn’t really “https://youtu.be/lmvFyBBJORM?si=7JcSiyJ4DxPNYtjg"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">inflation,” but most people think it is, so we’ll accept this as a rationale.) The August jobs report was solid, giving the central bank some wiggle room to argue the economy is good and can handle a hike.

And then you have Warsh’s reputation. Don’t underestimate the importance of the Fed chair’s image. He’s talked a good game, but he needs to prove that he’s willing to put his (our) money where his mouth is. It won’t shock me if he pushes hard for a hike just because he feels like he needs to establish himself as the tough guy in the room.

However, I can also make a strong case for the Fed holding rates steady.

Forty-trillion reasons, in fact.

It’s pretty tough to contemplate a higher rate environment when https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/the-40-trillion-national-debt-in-perspective-005151";>the U.S. government is $40 trillion in debt and needs the central bank to support its borrowing and spending. Economies dominated by a https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/11/15/debt-black-hole-putting-increasing-stress-on-american-consumers-004483";>Debt Black Hole don’t do well with higher rates.

And everybody knows this. Of course, nobody will say it out loud. But I guarantee you they’re talking about it privately inside the hallowed halls of the Eccles Building.

Now, Fed people will claim they don’t consider fiscal policy when setting monetary policy. But I’ve heard that there are kids today claiming they’re cats. Doesn’t make it so.

And then there is the political pressure. President Trump threatened to cut off trade with every country that runs a trade surplus with the U.S. if the central bank doesn’t cut rates. It’s a rather absurd threat, but it has to have some impact, right? After all, Trump just hired Warsh.

If I’m thinking with a mainstream mindset, the arguments for holding rates steady outweigh those for a hike. The economy is far from “overheated.” CPI seems to be moving in the right direction. Raising interest rates can’t fix an oil price shock.

But I kind of agree with the consensus. I lean toward a rate hike, simply because Warsh doesn’t want to lose face. The European Central Bank just hiked, adding a little more pressure to the cooker.

Hike or Don't; It Doesn’t Matter

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Regardless, I don’t think it matters. Either way, we ultimately end up in the same place -- a crashing economy, surging inflation, and interest rates at zero.

If the Fed hikes, I think it will tip the economy. It’s already on the edge. The debt bubble is bulging. Economic growth is stagnant when you factor out government spending. An economy addicted to easy money can’t function for very long without the easy money drug.

And do you know what central banks do when the economy gets shaky?

They cut interest rates.

In my view, the most likely scenario is a hike with a pretty quick pivot back to rate cuts.

But even if they don't hike, rates are still too high given the level of debt and the economy's need for the easy money drug. We're still on the path to an economic reckoning, and the money printing will continue.

In other words, all roads lead to more inflation.

That’s why my head spins every time I see a big gold and silver selloff after any news that supports the rate hike narrative.

I interviewed economist Daniel Lacalle yesterday, and he summed it up perfectly.

"If you sell silver and gold because there is a rate hike, then it's because you don't understand money."

He went on to point out that if the Fed does hike next week, it’s telling you something.

“A rate hike is the evidence that the solvency of governments is being less and less credible. It's also the evidence of persistent inflation. Persistent inflation means that the government is spending way too much, way more than what the private sector demands, and that it's generating more units of currency.”

Gold and silver are indeed non-yielding assets. But that doesn’t make them inferior to a government bond.

“To think that it is better to buy the bond of an insolvent nation that gives you 5 percent relative to something that has proven to be a reserve of value, a unit of measure, and generalized method of payment, i.e., real money as gold is… In reality, what you should see is that if rate hikes are coming, it's basically because the government is not going to give you real economic returns on it on their debt.”

So, the Fed will hike next week. Or it won’t. But no matter what it does, it can’t change the overall trajectory of the economy. It can’t erase $40 trillion in debt. It can’t make the world fall in love with the dollar again. It won’t change its planned policy of 2 percent annual currency debasement. Don’t get too caught up in this single Fed meeting. Keep your eye on the big picture.

Spain Ponders Whether It Should Get Its Gold Out of the U.S.

Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

With many countries bringing their gold home, what will Spain do?

Some are calling for the Spanish central bank to follow the lead of the Netherlands and France and repatriate its gold.

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/03/the-netherlands-moves-gold-out-of-north-america-citing-geopolitical-risk-005181";>The Netherlands recently moved 86 tonnes of gold from North America closer to home in London, citing “increasing geopolitical unrest” and a desire to “strengthen crisis preparedness.”

Meanwhile, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/07/french-central-bank-sells-new-york-gold-replaces-it-with-gold-stored-in-paris-004819";>France completed a gold repatriation project earlier this year. The Banque de France (BdF) unloaded “non-standard” gold bars of varying purity and size that were stored in New York. The central bank used the proceeds to purchase new gold bars that meet international reserve standards for weight, purity, and certification.

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The Bank of Spain holds roughly 289 tonnes of gold. It is the sixth-largest gold reserve among EU countries.

The Spanish central bank refused to disclose how much gold it holds in New York or comment on plans to move it, citing confidentiality.

https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2026-09-08/spain-faces-dilemma-of-what-to-do-with-its-gold-deposited-at-the-us-federal-reserve.html"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sources speaking to El País on the condition of anonymity said most of Spain’s gold is held within Spanish borders and the amount stored in the U.S. is likely small.

Nevertheless, a growing chorus of voices is pushing for repatriation.

Instituto de Estudios Bursátiles (IEB) professor Luis Garvía told El País that bringing the gold home shouldn’t be viewed as a “nationalist” policy.

“Bringing the gold to Spain would not be a sovereigntist gesture; it would be part of the European Union’s strategic autonomy framework.”

As El País notes, the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/could-weaponization-of-the-dollar-as-a-foreign-policy-billy-club-accelerate-de-dollarization-003013";>weaponization of the dollar and growing worries that gold could be confiscated have fueled the repatriation movement.

“The main reason is not only the distrust aroused by U.S. President Donald Trump. In 2022, the freezing of Russian assets abroad as part of the sanctions program over the invasion of Ukraine set off alarm bells in nonaligned countries.”

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https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/05/31/india-brings-100-tons-of-gold-home-for-safe-keeping-003225";>India is another country aggressively repatriating its gold. In the spring of 2024, the Reserve Bank of India brought 100 tonnes of gold home, repatriating it from vaults in the UK. Over the last six months, the Indian central bank has repatriated another 104 tonnes. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/gold-storage-repatriation-from-england-give-our-bullion-back-india-wants-its-gold-under-own-lock-and-key/articleshow/130674895.cms"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">According to the Economic Times of India, this weaponization of the dollar by the U.S. was one of the key factors, specifically aggressive sanctions levied on Russia after it invaded Ukraine and the freezing of Afghanistan’s reserves by Western powers.

“Those episodes, involving G7 countries restricting access to sovereign assets, have reshaped how central banks think about custody.”

The Netherlands moved some of its gold to London, but as El País reported, that might not be a safe option either. The report pointed out that Venezuela tried to bring home its gold stored in London; however, the UK refused to release the metal, saying it does not recognize Caracas’s monetary authority.

“London is one of the world’s largest gold trading centers, which gives reserves a great deal of liquidity. But in times of rising authoritarianism, that immediacy is no longer so attractive.”

Spain isn’t the only country wrestling with the question of gold storage.

There have also been calls for https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/01/25/german-officials-renew-calls-to-bring-gold-home-004637";>gold repatriation from German politicians spanning the political spectrum. The Bundesbank brought half of its gold home in 2013, moving 674 tonnes of gold from Paris and New York back to Germany. However, the Bundesbank still stores about one-third of its gold in New York vaults.

Earlier this year, Emanuel Mönch, a leading German economist and former Bundesbank head of research, said it’s “too risky” to keep gold reserves in New York.

“Given the current geopolitical situation, it seems risky to store so much gold in the U.S. In the interest of greater strategic independence from the U.S., the Bundesbank would therefore be well-advised to consider repatriating the gold.”

There have also been loud voices calling for Italian gold repatriation.

According to https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/2023-central-bank-gold-reserves-survey"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">a World Gold Council survey in 2023, a “substantial share” of central banks expressed concern about potential sanctions after the U.S. and other Western countries froze almost half of Russia’s $650 billion gold and forex reserves in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine. According to the WGC, 68 percent of the banks surveyed said they plan to keep their gold reserves within their country’s borders. This was up from 50 percent in 2020.

One anonymously quoted central bank official told Reuters, “We did have it [gold] held in London… but now we’ve transferred it back to our country to hold as a safe haven asset and to keep it safe.”

This gold repatriation trend underscores the importance of holding physical gold free from https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/buy-gold-and-silver-to-hedge-against-counterparty-risk-003015";>counterparty risk.

ETF Gold Holdings Surged to Record High in August

Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Gold flowed into ETFs from every region last month, pushing global holdings to a record high.

ETFs globally added 121 net tonnes of gold to their holdings in August. That pushed total ETF gold reserves to 4,189 tonnes.

Putting that into perspective, ETFs globally held 3,915 tonnes of gold at the height of the COVID bull market.

Total assets under management (AUM) by gold-backed funds rose 16 percent month-on-month to $615 billion in August.

Year-to-date, ETFs have added a net 160 tonnes of gold to their collective holdings valued at $29 billion.

For the second-straight month, European ETFs led the way, adding 54.2 tonnes of gold to their holdings, valued at $7.9 billion. It was the strongest month for European gold ETFs on record.

Like in the U.S., European investors are becoming increasingly worried about government debt loads. According to the World Gold Council, “Against this backdrop, gold's role as a portfolio diversifier and an alternative to sovereign debt likely remained an important driver of demand.”

Funds listed in the UK were the largest contributors to European gold inflows, recording the second-largest month of gold accumulation on record. Meanwhile, French funds added $1.5 billion in August, the strongest month on record. According to the World Gold Council, this “further underscores the breadth of investor demand across the region.”

North American gold-backed funds added 53.3 tonnes of gold to their holdings, valued at $7.7 billion. It was the region’s third-largest monthly inflow on record.

The month started slowly and then accelerated during the week of August 17. According to the World Gold Council, North American funds added more than half of the month’s total gold inflow in just five days.

The spike in gold flows occurred around the same time the U.S. Treasury Department announced plans to double its https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/10/treasury-department-announces-even-bigger-bond-buyback-market-shrugs-005192";>buyback of long-term bonds, an effort widely viewed as an attempt to control borrowing costs. The World Gold Council said this intervention “heightened concerns around fiscal sustainability and dominance, while reviving fears of potential dollar debasement.”

Asian funds charted their strongest month since February, adding 13.3 tonnes of gold valued at $2 billion.

China dominated inflows, thanks to a rebounding gold price that attracted investor interest. According to the World Gold Council, “Continued declines in local government bond yields and a range-bound equity market likely provided additional support.”

Indian and Japanese funds also reported modest gold inflows.

Funds listed in other regions, including Australia and Africa, added 0.4 tonnes of gold in August. The bulk of regional demand was centered in Australia, with $190 million in gold inflows.

ETFs are a convenient way for investors to play the gold market, but https://youtu.be/7aP6VbgXVeM?si=O3yPeFkTYFHOXrHe"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">owning ETF shares is not the same as holding physical gold.

ETFs are relatively liquid. You can buy or sell an ETF with a couple of mouse clicks. You don’t have to worry about transporting or storing metal. In a nutshell, they let investors play the gold market without buying full ounces of metal at the spot price.

Since you are just buying a number on a screen, you can easily trade your ETF shares for another stock or cash whenever you want, even multiple times on the same day. Many speculative investors take advantage of this liquidity.

But while a gold ETF is a convenient way to play gold's price, you don’t possess any gold. You have paper. And you don’t know for sure that the fund has all the gold either, especially when it sees inflows. In such a scenario, there have been difficulties or delays in obtaining physical metal.

Trading Volumes

Gold market activity rebounded in August, with average daily trading volumes rising 21 percent month-on-month to $430 billion per day across all major market segments.

Over-the-counter (OTC) trading volumes rose 10 percent on the month to $226 billion per day. LBMA activity supported OTC trading, with an 11 percent month-on-month increase to $199 billion per day. This is well above the 2025 average.

Total COMEX longs rose sharply by 39 percent to 753 tonnes.

Managed money continued rebuilding its position, with net longs increasing by 96 tonnes. This pushed managed money net longs to 470 tonnes, surpassing its earlier year-to-date peak of 443 tonnes.

Treasury Department Announces Even Bigger Bond Buyback; Market Shrugs

Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again.

That seems to be the mantra over at the U.S. Treasury Department.

On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the department plans to triple its long-term bond buyback program to $6 billion during its operation on Thursday.

Last month, Bessent signaled that the Treasury would increase its bond market intervention. Initially, he said the plan was to “at least” double operations from $2 billion to $4 billion beginning in September. Yields initially fell but quickly recovered.

Not content to be outdone by the markets, Bessent doubled down again, raising the September 10 buyback operation to $6 billion.

I doubt this is what he had in mind.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/10-year-treasury-sept1026.png"; width="700" height="438" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

By Thursday morning, the yield on the 10-year Treasury had spiked to over 4.9 percent, a level not seen since June 2007.

Meanwhile, the 30-year yield spiked to 5.341. You have to go back to June 2004 to find a yield that high.

Subsequently, mortgage rates also spiked, climbing to the highest level since July 2025.

Mechanics and Optics of the Treasury Buyback

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In practice, the Treasury will purchase older long-term bonds on the open market and retire them. This increased demand will raise prices and lower yields. This benefits the federal government by lowering interest rates on newly issued debt on the long end of the curve.

The Treasury will fund the buybacks by selling shorter-term notes and bonds. In practice, the Treasury borrows money to buy debt from people who already lent it money so it can borrow more money from other people at a slightly lower interest rate.

This is imperative given that the federal government already https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/13/trump-administration-runs-largest-monthly-budget-deficit-in-five-years-005135";>shells out over $1 trillion annually in interest expense.

In the big scheme of things, this isn’t a big operation. Six billion dollars is a drop in the bucket in a $32 trillion bond market. Treasury describes the operation as a “liquidity intervention” to maintain “market plumbing.” However, we don’t have a “plumbing” problem, and the Treasury Department intervention doesn’t solve the fundamental issue.

But while the operation's extent isn’t materially significant, the message Bessent sent with the move is.

And what is that message?

Desperation.

The Treasury Department is worried about the state of the bond market and its ability to continue funding the federal government's borrow-and-spend binge.

That's because demand for U.S. debt has tanked, and investors are demanding higher long-term yields due to ever-increasing federal deficits and inflation expectations.

After Bessent initially announced the increased buyback operation, Standard Chartered global head of research Eric Robertsen summed up the Treasury Department's message to the markets.

"The only conclusion we can draw is ‌that yields reached a level that they don't like, and I think that suggests a willingness to try and control or intervene against natural supply and demand."

PGIM Credit chief investment strategist, Robert Tipp, told CNBC the markets seemed disappointed that the Treasury didn’t make an even bigger move.

“At the end of the day, the Treasury is issuing a spectacular amount of securities, and they’re trying to control the price level at the back end of the curve with really what, in the big scheme of things, is not necessarily a major operation. When they came out and said we would be buying at least 4 billion, I think market expectations were kind of thinking six to 10, and they’ve come in at the bottom end of the market’s expectations. As a result, you’re seeing a negative reaction here in the market with the sell-off at the back end of the curve.”

Stanley Druckenmiller said Bessent is setting his feet on a slippery slope. Now that he’s intervened, it may well require increasingly larger buybacks just to keep a lid on the market.

“Once markets believe Treasury is defending a price, every rise in yields becomes a test of official resolve, and the operations must grow to survive the tests. Governments defending prices against fundamentals always lose. The only variable is how much they spend before conceding.”

Bessent defended his plans to “make the bond market move” during a speech earlier this week. According to the New York Times, he argued that markets were “misreading the fundamental dynamics of the U.S. economy,” noting that American bonds had outperformed the bond markets of many other countries. He emphasized that his job was to ensure markets were "not misreading the fundamental dynamics of the economy."

“Now I try to slow things down, to get people to get out of their fever dream and look at the facts.”

However, the facts (https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/the-40-trillion-national-debt-in-perspective-005151";>about $40 trillion of them) are exactly why people are turning their noses up at U.S. debt. They don't trust the U.S. will ever get a handle on its fiscal malfeasance. So, why should the world lend Uncle Sam any more money?

On top of that, they've watched America https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/could-weaponization-of-the-dollar-as-a-foreign-policy-billy-club-accelerate-de-dollarization-003013";>weaponize its currency. Many countries worry that the U.S. government could use its dollar assets as leverage. If you want to avoid getting the dollar carpet pulled out from under you, get the carpet out of the living room.

Impact on Precious Metals

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The Treasury Department's willingness to intentionally step in to suppress yields is bullish for gold and silver.

Since gold is a non-yielding asset, conventional wisdom holds that a higher rate environment is bearish for the yellow metal. Conversely, lower rates tend to create headwinds for gold.

The gold market reacted as one might expect. Gold soared on the news, https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>pushing back above $4,400 an ounce on Wednesday.

Silver also charted a strong gain, rising above $67 an ounce.

Right now, the optics of this operation matter more than the scope. If markets take the Treasury at face value and interpret this as a plumbing fix, it's unlikely to have significant impacts. However, if markets read between the lines and recognize it as transparent rate manipulation to control federal government buying costs, we could see a more significant pivot toward precious metals.

Debasement Trade Gains Ground as Nations Reassess Dollars, Bonds, and Gold

Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

In this week’s Money Metals Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey examined what he calls the debasement trade. It is the growing preference for tangible assets such as gold and silver as protection against the declining purchasing power of fiat currencies.

Maharrey framed the trend as a matter of trust. If people no longer trust the institutions managing their money, he argued, they will naturally seek assets that are not created or controlled by those institutions. Gold and silver have historically filled that role because they are not issued by governments and https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/05/brien-lundin-debt-debasement-and-why-golds-bull-market-has-support-005186";>carry no direct currency-debasement risk.

The underlying question, according to Maharrey, is not whether governments will continue to borrow and spend, but how long markets will tolerate the consequences.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/HaA45e8ha0s?si=2k6daPTPb75P4yfd"; title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen">

A Gold Bull Market With No Clear Off-Ramp

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Maharrey said he is generally reluctant to put a timetable on major market events. Fiscal and monetary problems often take longer to manifest than people expect, even when the broad direction is clear.

Still, he highlighted comments from John LaForge, chief alternative investment strategist at Ned Davis Research, who linked https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/01/a-forever-gold-bull-market-005174";>the outlook for gold to governments’ willingness, or unwillingness, to confront their debt burdens.

LaForge said gold prices could continue rising until policymakers learn how to address the debt problem. As long as governments continue piling up debt rather than paying it down, he argued, higher gold prices remain possible.

Maharrey’s interpretation was straightforward. The debt trend is a https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/03/the-feds-no-exit-ramp-debt-dollar-debasement-and-the-case-for-gold-005179";>powerful long-term tailwind for gold. With U.S. national debt near $40 trillion and politicians facing incentives to avoid painful fiscal reforms, he argued that the political system is more likely to keep postponing the problem than resolve it.

That does not mean every move in gold will be higher. Maharrey acknowledged that precious metals can be volatile and can experience sharp corrections. But he maintained that continued currency depreciation and unresolved debt problems create a long-term backdrop favorable to gold and silver.

Norway’s $80 Billion Treasury Signal

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One recent development cited in the episode came from Norges Bank Investment Management, which manages Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest. The fund oversees roughly $2.3 trillion in assets accumulated from Norway’s oil and gas wealth.

The fund has proposed reducing government bonds from 70% to 50% of its broader bond benchmark. Maharrey said that, in practical terms, the move could require the fund to shed approximately https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/08/worlds-largest-sovereign-wealth-fund-to-cut-us-treasury-holdings-005188";>$80 billion in U.S. Treasury holdings, along with around $20 billion in Japanese government bonds and a reduction in euro-area government debt.

The shift is intended to preserve sufficient liquidity for periods of market stress. The transactions are not expected immediately. Maharrey noted reports suggesting they may not occur until early 2027. Nevertheless, he described the announcement as an important signal from a major global investor that government bonds are no longer being treated as unquestioned safe havens.

He also cautioned against interpreting the decision as evidence of an imminent dollar collapse. Citing Vantage Point Asset Management CIO Nick Ferres, Maharrey noted that unsustainable debt and deficits are widespread across advanced economies, but a shift by Norway’s fund does not necessarily mean a financial crisis is arriving tomorrow.

Bond Bear Market Pressures Build

Maharrey argued that Norway’s decision fits into a broader shift in the bond market. For decades, U.S. Treasury debt served as a primary safe asset for governments, banks, and institutional investors. But persistent deficits, inflation concerns, rising borrowing needs, and policy uncertainty have put pressure on that role.

He pointed to the 10-year Treasury yield, which rose from roughly 1.5% in late 2021 to nearly 5% in fall 2023. Despite Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical events that traditionally might have pushed investors toward Treasuries, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/31/fed-chair-warsh-runs-open-mouth-operations-at-jackson-hole-but-can-he-deliver-005173";>yields have remained elevated.

Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. When investors demand less government debt, bond prices fall, and yields rise. Higher yields, in turn, increase the government’s borrowing costs.

Maharrey said this creates a feedback loop for Washington. The government must borrow heavily to fund deficits, yet higher interest rates make servicing existing debt more expensive, requiring still more borrowing.

Through the first 10 months of fiscal 2026, he said, U.S. interest expense reached $1.17 trillion, up 15.5% from the same period in fiscal 2025. That followed a 7.3% increase in fiscal 2025 interest costs compared with 2024.

He also discussed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s long-end bond buyback effort, intended to support 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year bonds and ease upward pressure on yields. Maharrey argued that the market response was short-lived and that the move may have instead highlighted official concern about the bond market.

Dollar Weaponization and Foreign Demand

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Debt is not the only reason overseas institutions are reassessing their exposure to dollars and Treasuries. Maharrey said the United States and its allies freezing Russian dollar-denominated assets after Russia invaded Ukraine accelerated concerns about the weaponization of reserve currencies.

He did not debate the policy merits of sanctions. Instead, he focused on their consequences for countries holding reserves abroad. Governments that see the dollar used as a tool of economic pressure may decide to diversify away from dollar assets, he said.

Maharrey cited China as an example. According to figures mentioned in the episode, China had reduced its Treasury holdings to $652.3 billion, its lowest level since September 2008.

This does not mean the dollar will lose its reserve-currency role overnight. But Maharrey argued that diversification away from Treasuries, increased central-bank gold buying, and more interest in alternative reserve assets all point in the same direction. That is a gradual reduction in reliance on U.S. debt.

Netherlands Moves 86 Tonnes of Gold

The episode also examined the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/03/the-netherlands-moves-gold-out-of-north-america-citing-geopolitical-risk-005181";>Netherlands’ recent gold relocation. De Nederlandsche Bank, or DNB, moved approximately 86 metric tonnes of gold from North America to London between March and August 2026, citing rising geopolitical unrest and a desire to strengthen crisis preparedness.

The move was not a simple shipment of all the metal. DNB sold about 59 tonnes of gold stored in New York and used the proceeds to purchase replacement bullion in London. More than 27 tonnes were physically transferred from the United States and Canada to Zeist in the Netherlands, while a similar quantity was moved from Zeist to London.

DNB said the relocation improved the tradability and accessibility of its reserves. After the change, London held 32.1% of Dutch gold reserves, while both New York and Ottawa held 18.5%. The https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/03/central-banks-piled-in-more-gold-in-july-005182";>central bank’s total gold holdings remained unchanged at 612.4 tonnes.

Maharrey emphasized the role of counterparty risk. Gold itself does not depend on another party’s promise to pay, but gold stored abroad can still create custody and access risks. In a crisis, the location, form, and market acceptability of bullion can matter.

London’s role as a major physical gold-trading center was central to DNB’s decision. Gold stored at the Bank of England meets modern international trading standards and can be accessed or traded more readily in a crisis than some older bars held elsewhere.

Gold Repatriation Is a Wider Trend

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The Netherlands is not alone. Maharrey noted that France recently replaced non-standard gold bars previously held in New York with new bars meeting international reserve standards, with the upgraded bullion retained in France.

Germany repatriated 674 tonnes of gold from Paris and New York beginning in 2013, though the Bundesbank still stores roughly one-third of its reserves in New York. Calls for further repatriation have continued in Germany amid concerns about geopolitical risk and strategic independence.

India has also been actively bringing gold home. Maharrey said the Reserve Bank of India repatriated 100 tonnes from the United Kingdom in spring 2024, followed by another 104 tonnes. India now reportedly holds about 680 tonnes of its 880-tonne gold reserve, or roughly 77%, within its own borders.

The broader trend is https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/06/25/more-countries-bringing-their-gold-home-for-safe-keeping-005009";>reflected in central-bank vaulting preferences. Maharrey cited World Gold Council survey data showing that 57% of surveyed central banks held some gold in the United Kingdom, down from 64% a year earlier. Domestic vaulting was preferred by 49%, while the share holding at least some gold in New York fell from 17% to 14%.

Preparing for a Long-Term Currency Trend

Maharrey’s central conclusion was that https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/27/gold-and-silver-surge-as-the-debasement-trade-returns-005164";>the debasement trade is driven by long-term fiscal and monetary incentives, not a single administration or a short-lived political cycle.

He argued that governments have committed themselves to inflation targets that steadily erode purchasing power, and that actual inflation may exceed those targets when deficits and debt-service costs become harder to manage.

For investors and savers, Maharrey said the challenge is preparation rather than market timing. Waiting until a financial crisis is obvious, he argued, is like buying fire insurance after a house has already caught fire.

The episode closed with Maharrey’s view that gold and silver can help investors diversify away from fiat-currency risk. He encouraged listeners to research precious-metals options through MoneyMetals.com or by speaking with a Money Metals specialist at 1-800-800-1865.

Gold or Dollars? It's a Question of Trust!

Wed, 09 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

The debasement trade continues to gain momentum with more countries and investors spurning dollars for gold.

It's a question of trust.

Do you trust dollars, or gold?

As host Mike Maharrey explains, more people are losing faith in fiat dollars, and they're turning to the yellow metal as a safe haven for their wealth. In this episode of the Midweek Memo podcast, Mike highlights two stories that broke last week, illustrating the whats and whys behind the debasement trade.

First, he covers the world's largest sovereign wealth fund announcing a reduction in Treasury holdings. He follows that up by highlighting another example of gold repatriation.

Along the way, he makes the case for a "forever" gold bull market.

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Mike opens the show with a hypothetical scenario.

"So, you’re chatting with a trusted friend, and he tells you about how he discovered his accountant was cheating him and embezzling funds. And oh, by the way, he’s your accountant too.

"So, how long would it be before you fired him?

"Probably about as long as it took to dial the number, right? If you can’t trust somebody, you are not going to keep them in a position where they can harm you. A cheating accountant is bad, but not so bad for you if he’s not YOUR accountant.

"This very phenomenon explains the debasement trade."

What exactly is the debasement trade?

"Simply put, it’s an investment strategy emphasizing holding tangible assets such as gold, silver, and other commodities to protect against the decline of fiat currencies caused by monetary debasement. In other words, getting rid of dollars because you don’t trust the government issuing those dollars and stacking gold and silver because nobody issues or controls it, and you know it will always hedge against fiat currency debasement."

Mike notes that people sometimes ask him how long he thinks the gold bull market will continue.

"If you know me, you know I’m not one to try to time things. I recognize trends, and I feel like I have a good grasp on where we’re going, but I always admit it’s not clear exactly how or when we’ll get there. But I ran across a forecast the other day that I have to admit makes sense."

He quotes an analyst who argues the gold bull market will continue until "we learn how to deal with the debt situation."

"So, Forever. Given that nobody is willing to do what it takes to 'deal with the debt situation,' gold prices will ostensibly go up forever, or until the fiat system finally implodes."

Mike explains that there is no viable off-ramp, and this is the root of the debasement trade.

"Remember – there’s a growing lack of trust. People don’t trust the U.S. to handle its fiscal problems, so they’re trying to figure out how to be clear of the mess when the house of cards falls down. One of the things they’re doing is limiting their exposure to U.S. debt. In other words, they’re increasingly saying, 'Yeah. We’re not loaning your drunk uncle any more money.'"

As an example, Mike points out that the World's largest sovereign wealth fund recently announced plans to lower its exposure to government bonds. In practice, this means it will divest a large amount of U.S. Treasuries.

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Mike called the move "yet another body blow" to the struggling bond market, noting that many analysts believe we are in https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/18/the-ramifications-of-a-long-term-bond-bear-market-005079";>the early stages of a long-term secular bear market in bonds.

Mike sets the Norwegian wealth fund's move in a broader context.

"For decades, governments and central banks have held U.S. government debt as a “safe” asset. That is starting to shift because many governments no longer view U.S. debt as 'safe.' They are concerned about the U.S.’s fiscal position, with https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/16/us-government-runs-another-big-deficit-in-june-as-interest-expense-climbs-005073";>constant deficit spending piling onto nearly $40 trillion in debt, along with the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/could-weaponization-of-the-dollar-as-a-foreign-policy-billy-club-accelerate-de-dollarization-003013";>weaponization of the dollar. Notably, de-dollarization went into overdrive after the U.S. and its Western allies froze Russia's dollar-denominated assets after the invasion of Ukraine."

Mike points out that this has significant ramifications, and the U.S. government is signaling that it's a big problem. Mike specifically notes https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/us-treasury-intervenes-in-bond-market-to-drive-yields-lower-005150";>the Treasury Department's recent bond buyback announcement, characterizing it as a sign of "desperation" as the federal government wrestles with the growing burden of interest expense on the $40 trillion debt.

After pointing out special pricing on Australian gold Kangaroo coins at Money Metals, Mike highlights a second aspect of the debasement trade - gold repatriation.

"So, not only are a lot of countries shedding dollars and adding gold – they are bringing their gold home. The Netherlands moved approximately 86 tonnes of gold valued at over €10 billion from North America to London, citing 'increasing geopolitical unrest' and a desire to 'strengthen crisis preparedness.'"

Mike notes that, based on the DNB’s statement, worries about access to its gold were a primary reason for the move. He also points out that even countries with historically friendly relations, like the Netherlands, are beginning to judge the U.S. as a political risk. He cites France and India as two other countries aggressively repatriating gold, while people across the political spectrum in countries including Germany and Italy are pushing to return their gold to their own countries.

Mike wraps up the show by pointing out that the reasons many countries are spurning dollars for gold are also valid to individual investors. He urges listeners to call 800-800-1865 and talk with a precious metals specialist today.

Articles Mentioned in the Show

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/01/a-forever-gold-bull-market-005174";>A Forever Gold Bull Market?

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/03/central-banks-piled-in-more-gold-in-july-005182";>Central Banks Piled in More Gold in July

Gold and Silver Take a Hit — Then Fight Back

Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Gold and silver investors got another reminder over the past few days that bull markets rarely move straight up.

After a strong run for several weeks, both metals were hit with a sharp selloff Friday. Gold https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>dropped more than 2% at one point, while silver also came under heavy selling pressure.

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But the more interesting story may be what happened next.

Buyers quickly emerged as prices fell. Gold bounced well off its lows, while silver also https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>recovered and has continued to hold up relatively well. As trading gets underway this week, neither metal looks as though Friday's selloff did serious damage to the broader advance.

Gold is currently trading around the $4,400 level after recently challenging $4,500. That's still an extraordinary price by historical standards — and not far removed from the record territory gold has been exploring this year.

Silver's performance may be even more noteworthy.

The white metal bottomed at $54 this summer and is now trading in the mid-$60s.

The next hurdle appears to be around $67.50. If silver can decisively push through that area, it's likely to move higher and begin outperforming gold again.

Friday's selloff was triggered by a stronger-than-expected employment report. Traders immediately concluded that the Federal Reserve may be more inclined to raise interest rates, and gold and silver were sold aggressively.

But markets often overreact to the latest headline.

What matters now is whether Friday marked the beginning of a larger retreat or simply shook some speculative money out of a market that had moved a long way in a relatively short period.

So far, the evidence points more toward the latter.

Gold has found buyers around the $4,400 area, while silver continues to display impressive resilience. Neither metal has given back anything close to the gains accumulated during the broader advance.

It's also worth remembering just how much the precious metals landscape has changed.

Gold above $4,000 is no longer shocking. Silver above $60 is no longer shocking. Price levels that would have seemed almost unimaginable a couple of years ago are now where buyers and sellers battle over relatively ordinary daily moves.

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That tells us something important.

Investors around the world are continuing to rethink how much confidence they want to place in paper currencies, government debt, and the financial system more broadly. Central banks have been accumulating enormous quantities of gold. Investment demand for physical metals remains strong. And silver faces the added pressure of heavy industrial consumption alongside growing investor interest.

Those forces don't disappear because gold falls $100 in a morning.

In fact, sharp corrections are normal — and arguably healthy — https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/05/brien-lundin-debt-debasement-and-why-golds-bull-market-has-support-005186";>during powerful bull markets. They discourage excessive speculation and give longer-term buyers opportunities to enter at lower prices.

That doesn't mean investors should expect an immediate return to record highs. Gold and silver could spend some time consolidating after their recent gains.

But after Friday's gut check, the bulls are still standing.

Gold is holding near $4,400. Silver remains in the mid-$60s. And if buyers continue showing up on weakness, the next question may soon shift from how far the metals could fall to when they will make another run at their recent highs.

World's Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund to Cut U.S. Treasury Holdings

Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

The bloodbath in the bond market keeps picking up speed along with https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/28/with-bonds-struggling-investors-turning-to-tangible-assets-like-gold-005096";>the debasement trade.

Last week, the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund announced a plan to slash its government bond holdings by about 20 percent.

"We recommend that the government subindex of the bond index be reduced from 70 percent to 50 percent," Norges Bank governor Ida Wolden Bache and Norges Bank IM CEO Nicolai Tangen wrote in a letter.

"A government share of 50 percent will be ‌sufficient to ⁠cover the liquidity needs, including in periods of turbulence in financial markets."

Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) was founded in the early 1990s to invest Norway’s oil and gas wealth. It holds about $2.3 trillion in its portfolio.

U.S. Treasuries make up the bulk of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund bond holdings. According to Reuters, the fund will need to shed about $80 billion in Treasury holdings to accomplish its goal.

The fund will also reportedly divest around $20 billion in Japanese bonds and decrease holdings of euro-area bonds as well.

The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund did not announce a timeline for the move, but The Business Standard reported the transactions won’t likely occur until early 2027.

The announcement was yet another body blow to the struggling bond market. Many analysts believe we are in https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/18/the-ramifications-of-a-long-term-bond-bear-market-005079";>the early stages of a long-term secular bear market in bonds.

Over the last couple of years, long-term bond yields have faced persistent upward pressure. The 10-year Treasury spiked in 2022, rising from around 1.5 percent in late 2021 to a high of nearly 5 percent in the fall of 2023. Since then, yields have remained at those elevated levels despite the Fed cutting rates and geopolitical events that would have historically created significant safe-haven demand for Treasuries.

Reuters recently reported that “inflation, heavy government borrowing, policy uncertainty and bouts of stocks and bonds falling in tandem have weakened bonds' role as a ballast, prompting some investors to look for more diversification.”

The NBIM’s announcement is part of a broader trend as more people lose faith in government finances.

For decades, governments and central banks have held U.S. government debt as a “safe” asset. That is starting to shift because many governments no longer view U.S. debt as “safe.” They are concerned about the U.S.’s fiscal position, with https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/16/us-government-runs-another-big-deficit-in-june-as-interest-expense-climbs-005073";>constant deficit spending piling onto nearly $40 trillion in debt, along with the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/could-weaponization-of-the-dollar-as-a-foreign-policy-billy-club-accelerate-de-dollarization-003013";>weaponization of the dollar. Notably, de-dollarization went into overdrive after the U.S. and its Western allies froze Russia's dollar-denominated assets after the invasion of Ukraine.

A Massif Capital note pointed out that many foreign government buyers have been slowly selling U.S. Treasuries over the last several years.

“Players like China are changing their approach and have been doing so for several years. China recently reduced its holdings to $652.3 billion, the lowest level since September 2008.”

Higher yields inherent in a bond bear market are already squeezing U.S. policymakers.

So far in fiscal 2026, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/13/trump-administration-runs-largest-monthly-budget-deficit-in-five-years-005135";>the U.S. Treasury has spent $1.17 trillion on interest expense. That was up 15.5 percent compared to the same period in fiscal ’25. Interest on the national debt cost $1.2 trillion in fiscal 2025. That was up 7.3 percent over 2024.

Simply put, the federal government can’t afford higher interest rates.

In an effort to stop the bleeding, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/us-treasury-intervenes-in-bond-market-to-drive-yields-lower-005150";>a bond buyback at the long end of the yield curve.

It worked.

For about one day.

Vantage Point Asset Management CIO Nick Ferres told the Financial Post that “Debt and deficits are unsustainable in most of the advanced economies.” However, he cautioned against reading too much into Norway’s recent announcement.

“At some point there will be a fiscal crisis; however, this development is not necessarily a signal of that today.”

Indians Ignore Government Pleas to Stop Buying Gold

Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Last spring, Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged Indians to put off buying gold for a year.

They apparently didn’t heed the advice.

The Titan Company reported a 63 percent profit increase in the second quarter and a notable increase in foot traffic. And according to the Financial Times, “jewelry accounts for the vast majority of the chain’s earnings.”

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Modi wants Indians to forgo gold to control the country’s trade deficit, which is putting pressure on the rupee.

Gold and silver make up around 11 percent of India’s total imports.

Meanwhile, oil accounts for around 22 percent of the nation's imports. The sudden spike in oil prices due to the U.S.-Iran war hit India particularly hard. The country imports nearly 85 percent of its fuel, and about 50 percent of its crude imports flow through the Strait of Hormuz.

With both gold and oil prices spiking, India’s import bill has exploded. The country’s merchandise trade deficit topped $330 billion in the financial year ending March 2026. That was up from over $280 billion a year ago, a 17.9 percent increase.

The trade situation has put significant downward pressure on the rupee.

To try to stem the flow of gold into the country, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/05/13/india-hikes-gold-and-silver-import-duties-to-support-rupee-004917";>the government hiked customs duties from 6 to 15 percent in May, along with Modi’s plea to stop buying gold.

Titan managing director Ajoy Chawla called the impact of those measures “not long-lasting.”

“Their love for the product and gold is there; that is not disappearing. They are looking at it as a store of asset value. Even for a person who is not necessarily planning to sell their jewelry ever, they look at it as a portfolio.”

The data bears Chawla out.

After two straight weak months, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/india-gold-market-showing-signs-of-recovery-005152";>gold imports doubled in July, rising from 20 tonnes in June to an estimated 40-45 tonnes, signaling stronger demand.

The World Gold Council (WGC) reported improving Indian jewelry demand in July.

“Industry feedback suggests that deferred purchases returned to the market, resulting in higher footfall and a recovery in demand beyond essential wedding-related purchases. Manufacturers have reportedly begun receiving higher order flows, and inventory replenishment by jewelers has picked up ahead of the festive season, suggesting growing confidence in seasonal demand.”

Indian jewelry sales jumped by about one-third year-on-year to $21 billion in Q2, according to WGC data. Indian jewelry merchants reported strong quarterly earnings, with revenue growth from 30 to 60 percent year-on-year. Religious festivals and the summer wedding season supported gold jewelry sales in the second quarter.

Meanwhile, Modi reiterated his appeal last week, asking Indians to avoid buying gold “if not necessary.”

Apparently, a lot of Indians find it necessary.

In fact, Indians love gold for both cultural and economic reasons.

The yellow metal is deeply interwoven into India’s marriage ceremonies, along with its religious and cultural rituals. Festival seasons typically boost gold demand.

Indians also value the yellow metal as a store of wealth, especially in poorer rural regions. Around two-thirds of India’s gold demand originates outside urban centers, where many people operate outside the tax system. A lot of Indians use gold jewelry not only as an adornment but as a way to preserve wealth.

In the West, gold is generally viewed as a luxury item.

Not in India. Even poor Indians buy gold.

According to a 2018 ICE360 survey, one in every two households in India had purchased gold within the last five years. Overall, 87 percent of Indian households own some gold. Even households at the lowest income levels in India hold some of the yellow metal. According to the survey, more than 75 percent of families in the bottom 10 percent of income managed to buy some gold.

Given the Indian love affair with gold, it’s not surprising that Modi’s pleas fell on deaf ears.

Last May, Metals Focus predicted the higher tax, and government begging would only have a limited impact on the Indian gold market.

That’s because Indian gold and silver demand historically remained resilient, even in a higher-tax environment.

According to Metals Focus analysts, “Consumers often delay purchases initially following sharp price increases but typically adjust to higher price levels over time. In addition, elevated duties could encourage a recovery in unofficial flows, which had collapsed following the 2024 duty reduction.”

In fact, as the rupee depreciates, gold will likely become increasingly attractive.