Precious Metals News & Analysis - Gold News, Silver News from Money Metals Exchange

Greg Weldon’s Bold Gold Forecast as Debt and Inflation Risks Mount

Sat, 10 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

Gold’s Rebound and Washington’s Gold Thief

Veteran market analyst Greg Weldon warns that growing financial instability, expanding money supply, and mounting government debt could propel gold to $8,500–$10,000 over the next one to three years.

Gold and silver are finding their footing again after a turbulent stretch, but the financial pressures driving investors toward precious metals haven't disappeared. In this week’s Money Metals Market Wrap podcast, veteran market analyst Greg Weldon joins Mike Maharrey to discuss the outlook for gold and silver, growing risks in the Treasury market, and why he believes the Federal Reserve will ultimately tolerate higher inflation to keep the debt-laden economy afloat.

Weldon believes investors are approaching a period of heightened financial and geopolitical uncertainty. Although some of his trading models are flashing near-term sell signals for gold, he maintains a bullish long-term outlook. He sees https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>gold prices potentially reaching $8,500 to $10,000 over the next one to three years, driven by expanding money supply, unsustainable government debt, persistent inflationary pressures, and growing instability in global markets.

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Gold and Silver Rebound as Market Pressures Ease

Gold and silver have recently faced headwinds from rising Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. Higher yields can make interest-bearing investments more attractive compared with gold, which doesn't generate income, while a stronger dollar puts additional pressure on precious metals prices.

However, both metals have begun recovering. Gold gained more than 1% during the session, climbing toward $4,200 an ounce, while silver advanced nearly 3%, trading around $61.50. The dollar's rally had stalled, and Treasury yields had declined for two consecutive sessions, giving precious metals room to rebound.

The Federal Reserve remains a significant source of uncertainty. Upcoming inflation reports could influence the central bank's next decision, and persistent inflation may keep monetary policy restrictive for longer. But Weldon argues that investors should also consider why yields are rising. If bondholders demand higher returns because they are concerned about government borrowing and inflation, those same risks could ultimately strengthen the case for gold and silver.

The Bond Market Is Signaling Deeper Financial Trouble

One of the central themes of Weldon's analysis is the growing strain in sovereign debt markets. He believes the United States faces a debt burden that cannot easily be resolved through conventional monetary policy or spending restraint. Policymakers must balance inflation control, economic growth, and financial stability while government borrowing continues to place pressure on markets.

Weldon points to widening credit spreads and changes in the yield curve as warning signs investors shouldn't ignore. These developments can reflect growing concerns about credit conditions and the possibility of a broader economic slowdown. If financial stress intensifies, investors may initially seek liquidity, creating additional pressure on gold and other assets.

In Weldon's view, the eventual response to mounting financial pressure will likely involve expanding money and credit rather than allowing a painful debt-driven contraction. That could further undermine the dollar's purchasing power and provide a significant tailwind for precious metals over the longer term.

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Money Supply Growth and the Prospect of Higher Inflation

Weldon argues that the Federal Reserve faces a difficult choice as government debt rises and economic conditions become more fragile. Aggressively tightening monetary policy could put additional strain on an already indebted economy, leading policymakers to tolerate higher inflation rather than risk a deeper financial contraction.

He also discusses what he characterizes as a form of stealth quantitative easing, pointing to Federal Reserve balance-sheet activity and Treasury debt-management strategies. In his view, these developments suggest that policymakers are taking steps to manage financial conditions even as they publicly emphasize fighting inflation.

For precious metals investors, the implications are significant. If money supply growth accelerates while https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/01/hedge-funds-are-still-buying-treasuries-and-that-could-become-a-problem-005253";>government borrowing remains elevated, concerns about the dollar's future purchasing power could intensify. Gold doesn't depend on the creditworthiness of a government or the promises of a central bank, making it attractive to investors seeking protection against monetary instability.

Why Weldon Sees Gold Reaching $8,500 to $10,000

Despite his bullish long-term outlook, Weldon isn't suggesting that gold will move higher in a straight line. He discusses the possibility of additional downside, including a corrective move toward the $3,450–$3,500 range under one of his technical scenarios. Such a decline would be painful for investors, but he believes it could occur without destroying the broader bullish structure of the market.

His analysis highlights the difference between a temporary price decline and a fundamental change in the forces driving precious metals demand. Currency movements, leveraged trading, and changing interest-rate expectations can amplify market swings, even during powerful long-term advances.

Looking further ahead, Weldon believes debt expansion, monetary intervention, and currency depreciation could drive gold dramatically higher. His $8,500–$10,000 forecast reflects his view of where the metal could trade over the next one to three years, although the timing and eventual outcome remain uncertain.

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Geopolitical Tensions Add to the Uncertainty

Weldon's analysis extends beyond monetary policy and financial markets. He discusses several geopolitical risks, including the Russia-Ukraine war, tensions involving NATO and the Baltic states, instability in the Middle East, and strategic competition involving China. He argues that these developments are interconnected through trade routes, energy supplies, and the broader competition for global influence.

Energy disruptions could add to inflationary pressures, raise costs for businesses and consumers, and complicate central bank decisions. Weldon believes investors should consider the cumulative effects of these risks rather than treating each development as an isolated event. Together, geopolitical instability and financial uncertainty could contribute to greater market volatility while reinforcing the long-term appeal of precious metals.

Washington’s $40 Million Gold Theft Scandal

The episode also examines a case involving former https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/07/cia-gold-thief-compromised-spy-identity-005272";>CIA officer David Rush, who pleaded guilty to one count of wire fraud after creating a fake intelligence program to divert government funds. Authorities reportedly discovered approximately $40 million worth of gold bars at his home, including about 303 gold bars weighing roughly one kilogram each.

Investigators also uncovered a scheme involving approximately $145 million directed to a holding company used to acquire four luxury properties in Florida. The case took an even more serious turn with revelations that Rush had disclosed information about a clandestine human intelligence source to a foreign government official, potentially endangering the source and American intelligence officers.

Rush faces up to 20 years in prison on the wire-fraud count. According to sources cited in reporting on the case, the government reached a plea agreement in part to avoid exposing sensitive CIA information in open court. The scandal raises questions about government oversight and accountability, while also serving as a reminder that protecting physical gold requires secure storage and careful precautions.

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The Bigger Picture for Gold and Silver Investors

Weldon's outlook presents a market caught between near-term financial pressures and longer-term monetary risks. A stronger dollar, elevated Treasury yields, and deteriorating credit conditions could continue to produce volatility in precious metals. Meanwhile, mounting government debt, expanding money supply, and the prospect of renewed inflation could provide powerful support for gold and silver over time.

The timing of any major move remains uncertain, and Weldon's forecast is a market projection rather than a guaranteed outcome. Nevertheless, his analysis underscores why investors concerned about inflation, currency depreciation, and financial instability continue to pay close attention to precious metals.

As gold and silver attempt to regain momentum, the key question is whether the current rebound marks the beginning of another advance or simply a pause in a deeper correction. For investors focused on long-term wealth preservation, the underlying pressures on government finances and the purchasing power of the dollar may matter far more than the next few trading sessions.

Is Platinum More Expensive Than Gold? - Platinum vs Gold Prices and Why Gold Has Cost More Since 2015 - Rarity, Gold to Platinum Ratio, and Resale Value - Money Metals

Fri, 09 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

Gold costs more than platinum per ounce. While this was once reversed, gold has remained ahead of platinum for more than 11 years. In mid-January 2015, platinum’s London price fell below gold’s. It stayed there, and it has not caught back up to gold since that time.

Today, the gap between the two is roughly $2,500 wide. On September 29, 2026, at about 1:50 p.m. ET, gold traded at https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>$4,159.00 an ounce. Platinum traded at https://www.moneymetals.com/platinum-price";>$1,702.10. That makes gold about 2.4 times the price of platinum.

This guide compares the two metals as bullion. It is not about rings or credit cards. You’ll learn when the gap flipped, why the rarer metal costs less, and what it means when you buy or sell.

Platinum vs Gold at a Glance

	Gold	Platinum
Spot price per ounce	$4,159.00	$1,702.10
Spot price per gram	$133.71	$54.72
World mine output, 2025	3,300 tonnes	170 tonnes
Top producer	China (380 tonnes)	South Africa (120 tonnes, about 71%)
Biggest source of demand	Investors and central banks	Car exhaust catalysts (35% in 2025)
Premium on a 1 oz U.S. Mint coin	4.8%	18.7%
Dealer buy/sell spread, 1 oz Eagle	6.5%	17.8%
IRA eligible	Yes	Yes

Prices from Money Metals on September 29, 2026, at about 1:50 p.m. ET. Mine output from the USGS (https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-gold.pdf";>gold, https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-platinum-group.pdf";>platinum). Demand from the https://platinuminvestment.com/files/354715/WPIC_Platinum_Quarterly_Q2_2026.pdf";>World Platinum Investment Council.

Is Platinum More Expensive Than Gold Today?

No, platinum is not more expensive than gold. Gold costs more by the ounce and by the gram.

Gold: $4,159.00 per ounce, or $133.71 per gram.
Platinum: $1,702.10 per ounce, or $54.72 per gram.

A troy ounce holds 31.1035 grams. The prices of precious metals move all day, so check our platinum price and https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>gold price pages for live quotes.

In this guide, the gold to platinum ratio is the gold price divided by the platinum price. Today, September 29, it is about 2.44. Some sites flip the math and divide platinum by gold. That version reads about 0.41 today. Either metric for finding the ratio describes the same gap. The only difference is where they place their emphasis.

Why Many People Think Platinum Costs More

Many people associate platinum with a top tier, and you can see that across several industries. For example, in music, a platinum record means 1 million units sold. A gold record means 500,000 (https://www.riaa.com/gold-platinum/about-awards/";>RIAA). Credit cards use the same ladder. That association has led to a misconception about which metal is more valuable.

While this is not accurate, it is a common mix-up. A https://www.reddit.com/r/Showerthoughts/comments/1bk0c2g/gold_is_more_expensive_than_platinum_yet_we/";>Reddit thread on the topic drew more than 140 comments. The https://www.reddit.com/r/jewelry/comments/1n0n2p1/is_platinum_or_gold_technically_more_expensive/";>r/jewelry subreddit had many shoppers asking the same thing.

Most of this confusion revolves around jewelry. In the U.S., any jewelry sold as plain “platinum” must be at least 95% pure (FTC rules). A 14-karat gold ring is only about 58% gold. Platinum is also denser. It weighs 21.5 grams per cubic centimeter, versus 19.3 for gold (https://periodic-table.rsc.org/element/78/platinum";>platinum, https://periodic-table.rsc.org/element/79/gold";>gold).

So, a platinum ring will hold more precious metal content than a gold ring of the same size. Even if the metal itself costs less, the ring can still be more expensive.

When Did Gold Become More Expensive Than Platinum?

Platinum dropped below the gold price in mid-January 2015. Eleven years later, platinum has still not recovered its position of prominence. By April 2017, platinum’s London price had been below gold’s every day for more than two years.

It was not the first time that platinum had dipped below gold. There were dips on several occasions before 2015:

Platinum’s yearly average fell below gold two years in a row, in the early 1980s.
From 1996 to late 2008, platinum never priced below gold on any day.
Platinum dipped below gold for a short time after Lehman Brothers failed in 2008.
It traded below gold on and off from 2011 to 2013.

What makes 2015 different is that the discount never ended. The table below uses yearly average prices from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).

Year	Gold average ($/oz)	Platinum average ($/oz)	Gold ÷ platinum
2008	874	1,578	0.55
2011	1,572	1,725	0.91
2015	1,163	1,056	1.10
2020	1,774	886	2.00
2024	2,388	961	2.49
2025 (estimate)	3,300	1,200	2.75
Sept. 29, 2026 (spot)	4,159	1,702	2.44

Sources: USGS gold data (https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/mineral-pubs/gold/mcs-2013-gold.pdf";>2013, https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-gold.pdf";>2020, https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2025/mcs2025-gold.pdf";>2025, https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-gold.pdf";>2026). USGS platinum data (https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/mineral-pubs/platinum/mcs-2013-plati.pdf";>2013, https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-platinum.pdf";>2020, https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2025/mcs2025-platinum-group.pdf";>2025, https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-platinum-group.pdf";>2026). Spot prices from Money Metals.

In 2008, platinum cost almost twice as much as gold. Today, gold costs about 2.4 times as much as platinum.

We tracked this trend back in 2016. Our June 2016 article on the platinum to gold ratio found platinum selling for about 80% of gold’s price. Today it sells for about 41%.

What Broke Platinum's Premium

The flip between platinum and gold came in January 2015. That was eight months before the diesel scandal that many people blame for it. That detail matters because it shows that the diesel scandal did not open the gap, but it did help to keep the gap open. So did the following factors:

Diesel’s decline. On September 18, 2015, the https://www.epa.gov/vw/learn-about-volkswagen-violations";>EPA accused Volkswagen of cheating. The carmaker had rigged diesel cars to beat pollution tests. Car exhaust catalysts are platinum’s biggest use (WPIC). In the EU, diesel’s share of new cars fell from 53% in 2014 to 18% in 2023 (https://theicct.org/publication/european-vehicle-market-statistics-2024-25/";>ICCT). It was just 8.9% in 2025 (https://www.acea.auto/pc-registrations/new-car-registrations-1-8-in-2025-battery-electric-17-4-market-share/";>ACEA).
Electric cars. Battery-electric cars have no tailpipe emissions (https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric-basics-ev";>U.S. Department of Energy). They don’t need an exhaust catalyst at all.
Central bank buying. Central banks bought more than 1,000 tonnes of gold in each year from 2022 to 2024 (World Gold Council). They added 863 tonnes more in 2025 (World Gold Council). Central banks hold gold as money. Platinum has no buyer like that.

Is Platinum Rarer Than Gold?

Yes, platinum is in fact rarer than gold. Miners dig up far less platinum than gold each year. The USGS estimates that in 2025 the world mined:

About 3,300 tonnes of gold (https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-gold.pdf";>USGS).
About 170 tonnes of platinum (https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-platinum-group.pdf";>USGS).

That’s about 19 tonnes of gold for every tonne of platinum.

In dollars, the gap is much bigger. We used USGS output and USGS average prices. By that math, the world mined about $350 billion of gold and about $6.6 billion of platinum. That’s roughly 53 to 1.

The math: 3,300 tonnes x 32,150.7 troy ounces per tonne x $3,300 = about $350 billion. 170 tonnes x 32,150.7 x $1,200 = about $6.6 billion.

Platinum supply is also packed into a few places. South Africa mined about 120 of the 170 tonnes, or 71%. Russia added 20 tonnes and Zimbabwe 18. The U.S. relied on imports for 89% of the platinum it used in 2025 (https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-platinum-group.pdf";>USGS).

Gold comes from many countries. China led in 2025 with 380 tonnes. Russia (310) and Australia (280) came next (https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-gold.pdf";>USGS).

Why Is Gold Worth More If Platinum Is Rarer?

Precious metals prices do not depend solely on rarity; demand plays a significant role in discovering prices. Between gold and platinum, gold has significantly more buyers.

One reason for this is that gold is a money metal. Here is what happened in 2025, per the https://www.gold.org/news-and-events/press-releases/gold-investment-rockets-2025-setting-new-high-uncertainty-bites";>World Gold Council:

Central banks bought 863 tonnes of gold. That’s about 5 times the world’s platinum mine output.
Investors bought 1,374 tonnes of gold bars and coins. That’s about 8 times.
Total gold demand reached 5,002 tonnes.

Platinum is mostly an industrial metal. Total platinum demand in 2025 was 8,671,000 ounces, or about 270 tonnes (https://platinuminvestment.com/files/354715/WPIC_Platinum_Quarterly_Q2_2026.pdf";>WPIC). Car exhaust catalysts used 3,039,000 ounces of that, or 35%. The rest went to jewelry, industry, and investment.

So the gold market is about 18 times bigger by weight. When car sales slow, platinum demand drops. Gold does not depend on car sales, and that is one core reason why gold costs more.

Platinum Deficits: Why Scarcity Hasn't Closed the Gap

A deficit means buyers used more metal than mines and recyclers supplied. Platinum ran three deficits in a row (https://platinuminvestment.com/files/354715/WPIC_Platinum_Quarterly_Q2_2026.pdf";>WPIC):

802,000 ounces in 2023.
1,096,000 ounces in 2024.
1,440,000 ounces in 2025.

Those shortfalls drained stockpiles. Above-ground stocks fell from 3,186,000 ounces at the end of 2024 to 1,745,000 at the end of 2025.

Still, the gap with gold stayed wide, and the outlook has since changed. In its September 9, 2026 report, WPIC now expects a 265,000-ounce surplus for 2026. It would be the first surplus since 2022. Here is why:

ETF holdings fell by more than 500,000 ounces in the first half of 2026. That’s about one-seventh of what ETFs held at the end of 2025.
Jewelry demand fell as prices rose, mostly in China.
Recycling is set to rise 8% as higher prices pull more scrap to market.

Stocks are forecast to rebuild to 2,010,000 ounces. That still covers just 3.4 months of demand.

What about hydrogen? WPIC puts hydrogen-related demand at 77,000 ounces in 2026. That represents about 1% of total demand. It’s a real market, but still a small one. Other industrial uses are growing too. WPIC points to glass, electronics and AI data centers.

The Gold to Platinum Ratio: How Investors Use It

The ratio tells you how many ounces of platinum one ounce of gold can buy. Today, one ounce of gold buys roughly 2.4 ounces of platinum. The 2025 average was 2.75. In 2008, it was 0.55.

Some investors watch the ratio to decide when to swap metals. A high ratio means platinum looks cheap next to gold. But cheap can remain cheap; there is not a guarantee platinum will rise. Here is the case on each side.

Reasons the ratio could fall (platinum gains on gold):

Three straight deficits cut stockpiles to thin levels (https://platinuminvestment.com/files/354715/WPIC_Platinum_Quarterly_Q2_2026.pdf";>WPIC).
Most supply comes from one country, South Africa (https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-platinum-group.pdf";>USGS).
New industrial uses, like AI data centers, are growing (https://platinuminvestment.com/files/354715/WPIC_Platinum_Quarterly_Q2_2026.pdf";>WPIC).

Reasons the ratio could stay high:

Central banks keep buying gold (https://www.gold.org/news-and-events/press-releases/gold-investment-rockets-2025-setting-new-high-uncertainty-bites";>World Gold Council).
Electric cars need no exhaust catalysts (https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric-basics-ev";>U.S. Department of Energy).
WPIC expects a 2026 surplus as investors sell ETFs (https://platinuminvestment.com/files/354715/WPIC_Platinum_Quarterly_Q2_2026.pdf";>WPIC).
The ratio has no steady “normal” level. In the USGS table above, the yearly average runs from 0.55 to 2.75.

A swap also has a cost. You pay a spread when you sell one metal and again when you buy the other. The next section shows how big that can be.

Is Platinum Harder to Sell Than Gold?

Often, yes. Platinum is a smaller market. Fewer local coin shops trade it, as we explain in our https://www.moneymetals.com/bullion/platinum-vs-silver";>platinum vs silver guide. The clearest way to see the difference is the gap between what a dealer charges and what it pays.

Here are Money Metals' prices on September 29, 2026, at about 1:50 p.m. ET:

Product	We sell at	We buy at	Premium over spot	Buy/sell spread
https://www.moneymetals.com/1-oz-american-gold-eagle-coin-type-2/954";>1 oz American Gold Eagle	$4,358.00	$4,075.00	4.8%	6.5%
https://www.moneymetals.com/1-oz-generic-gold-bar/19";>1 oz gold bar	$4,276.00	$4,021.00	2.8%	6.0%
https://www.moneymetals.com/one-ounce-american-eagle-platinum-coin-9995-pure/27";>1 oz American Platinum Eagle	$2,021.10	$1,662.10	18.7%	17.8%
https://www.moneymetals.com/one-ounce-platinum-bar-9999-pure/28";>1 oz platinum bar	$1,871.10	$1,638.27	9.9%	12.4%

Sell prices are for 1 to 9 pieces. Spread is the sell price minus the buy price, divided by the sell price.

The Platinum Eagle’s spread is almost three times the Gold Eagle’s. Let’s imagine you bought a Platinum Eagle today and sold it back today. You would give up about 18% of what you paid. With a Gold Eagle, you would give up about 6.5%. So platinum’s price has to rise more before you break even.

If you hold platinum or plan to buy it:

Stick to well-known products, like the https://www.moneymetals.com/one-ounce-american-eagle-platinum-coin-9995-pure/27";>American Platinum Eagle or .9995 fine https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/platinum";>platinum bars.
Look at bars if cost matters most. The 1 oz platinum bar carries about half the coin’s premium.
Sell to a dealer that posts its buy prices. You can https://www.moneymetals.com/sell-to-us";>sell to Money Metals online or by phone, even if you bought elsewhere.

Should You Buy Platinum or Gold?

The right choice depends on your goal. Here is a simple guide.

Your goal	Better fit	Why
Protect wealth in a crisis	Gold	Central banks and investors hold it as money
Easy resale	Gold	Bigger market and tighter spreads
Bet on platinum catching up	Some platinum	The ratio is high, but demand rides on industry
Retirement account	Either	Both can go in a precious metals IRA
Small budget	Either	Fractional gold coins or https://www.moneymetals.com/1-gram-platinum-bar/212";>1 gram platinum bars

Some investors hold both. In such cases, gold usually serves as the core. A smaller platinum position adds exposure to industrial demand. If you want the bull case, read our take on the case for platinum. Then weigh that against the 2026 surplus forecast and platinum’s wider spreads.

Can You Hold Platinum in an IRA?

Yes. Federal law allows certain platinum coins and bullion in an IRA (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/408";>26 U.S. Code § 408(m)(3)). That includes the American Platinum Eagle. Bullion must meet the purity that futures exchanges require. Canada’s Platinum Maple Leaf also qualifies. So does the Perth Mint’s Platinum Kangaroo (https://www.moneymetals.com/platinum-price";>Money Metals). See our https://www.moneymetals.com/programs/iras";>precious metals IRA page and our list of https://www.moneymetals.com/guides/ira-accepted-precious-metals";>IRA-accepted metals.

This article is for education only. It is not investment advice.

Platinum vs Gold FAQ

Platinum is not worth more than gold, and has not been for over a decade. Gold has consistently cost more than platinum since mid-January 2015.

Gold is more valuable per ounce than platinum. Although platinum is rarer than gold and much harder to mine, gold has far more demand from central banks and private investors. That demand plays a heavy role in setting the price.

Platinum was more expensive than gold from 1996 to 2008. In that period, platinum never priced below gold. In 2008, its average price was $1,578, almost double gold’s $874 (https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/mineral-pubs/platinum/mcs-2013-plati.pdf";>USGS).

That is often the case. Jewelry sold as plain “platinum” must be at least 95% pure (https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-16/chapter-I/subchapter-B/part-23/section-23.6";>FTC rules). Platinum is also denser. So a platinum ring holds more metal than a 14-karat gold ring of the same size.

Rhodium, another precious metal, is more valuable than either gold or platinum. On September 29, 2026, rhodium was https://www.moneymetals.com/rhodium-price";>$9,750 an ounce. That figure is more than twice the value of gold on the same day.

About $54.72 at 1:50 p.m. ET on September 29, 2026. Check our https://www.moneymetals.com/platinum-price";>platinum price page for the live price.

Yes. But a pawn shop or jeweler buys jewelry for its metal and keeps a margin. Bullion is different. Our buy prices above were within about 2% to 4% of spot for platinum coins and bars.

The Bottom Line

Gold is worth more than platinum, and the gap is wide. On September 29, 2026, gold cost about 2.4 times as much. Platinum is rarer, but gold has a much deeper pool of buyers. Platinum’s thin stockpiles give it room to run. Its 2026 surplus forecast and wider spreads are real risks. Pick the metal that fits your goal, and know your exit costs before you buy.

Greg Weldon: Why Gold Could Reach $8,500–$10,000

Fri, 09 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap podcast. I’m Stefan Gleason.

Coming up, veteran market analyst Greg Weldon joins our own Mike Maharrey to explain why he sees growing danger in the bond market — and why he isn’t betting against gold, even as his trading models flash sell signals. Greg also lays out his case for gold reaching $8,500 to $10,000 over the next one to three years, and why he believes the Fed will ultimately tolerate more inflation to keep our debt-laden economy afloat. You won’t want to miss this conversation.

Before we get started, please like this episode and subscribe to the Money Metals channel on YouTube. And share it with someone who would appreciate an independent perspective on the markets and their money.

Well, gold and silver are finding their footing again. And while the markets have been rattled lately, the financial problems driving investors toward precious metals haven’t gone away.

Gold has recovered more than 1% today, climbing to around $4,200 an ounce. Silver is showing even more strength, jumping almost 3% to trade near $61.50.

The dollar’s rally has stalled, and Treasury yields have declined for two consecutive sessions. That’s giving both metals some breathing room after a difficult stretch.

Recently, rising interest rates and a stronger dollar delivered a one-two punch to precious metals. Higher yields made interest-bearing investments more attractive, while a stronger dollar made gold more expensive for buyers overseas.

Now those headwinds have eased. But can this rebound gather momentum, or will the next round of headlines knock it back?

That brings us to the Federal Reserve — and the increasingly uncomfortable position our central bankers find themselves in.

The latest Fed minutes leave another rate hike on the table. Next week’s consumer and producer inflation reports could give officials more ammunition to keep policy tight, potentially putting renewed pressure on gold and silver.

But there’s a problem with treating every uptick in interest rates as bad news for gold.

You have to ask WHY those rates are rising.

Gold Newsletter editor Brien Lundin made that point in a commentary published by Money Metals this week. If investors are demanding higher yields because they’re worried about government debt, stubborn inflation, and depreciating currencies, those concerns also give them reasons to own gold.

A higher interest payment doesn’t necessarily make a government IOU safer. It may mean investors need more compensation for taking the risk.

Lundin also notes that Western investors, leveraged traders, and automated trading systems are playing a larger role alongside central-bank buyers. That can mean bigger rallies — and sharper corrections.

Washington would like us to believe the right interest-rate decision can somehow make up for years of reckless spending. But a Fed announcement can’t make Congress balance its books. And another reassuring press conference can’t return the purchasing power Americans have already lost.

That’s why savers need to look beyond the next meeting and consider what this system is doing to their money.

And speaking of misplaced confidence in government institutions, another gold story this week is almost hard to believe.

Money Metals reporter Ken Silva covered new developments in the case of former CIA officer David Rush, who pleaded guilty to one count of wire fraud after creating a fake spy program to siphon government funds.

Authorities found roughly $40 million worth of gold bars at his home.

We’re talking about approximately 303 bars, each weighing about a kilogram. That’s quite a stash for someone supposedly carrying out government business.

The report also describes how Rush directed about $145 million to a holding company and used the funds to acquire four luxury properties in Florida.

But the revelations go beyond stolen money.

New plea documents describe his disclosure to a foreign government official of information about a clandestine human source. Prosecutors warned that the disclosure could endanger the source and the American officers working with that person.

Rush faces up to 20 years in prison on the wire-fraud count. According to anonymous sources cited in Silva’s report, the government struck the plea agreement to avoid exposing CIA secrets in open court.

Apparently, taxpayers can fund the operation, absorb the losses, and still be left wondering how much of the story they’ll ever hear.

Secrecy has a legitimate role in intelligence work. It also makes accountability especially important. A government credential should never be treated as a substitute for honesty — or effective oversight.

There’s a practical reminder here for anyone who owns valuable physical assets: take security seriously, maintain careful records, and be discreet about your holdings.

Owning gold is one part of protecting your wealth. Safeguarding it is another.

As we head into next week, gold and silver have a rebound to build on, inflation reports are approaching, and the Fed remains a source of uncertainty.

Traders will react to every headline. Some will reverse course before the ink is dry.

Your savings strategy should have a longer attention span.

Build your position deliberately. Keep sufficient liquidity for everyday needs. And hold some financial insurance in physical gold and silver.

Because whatever the Fed decides next, your financial future deserves more than Washington’s promises.

To help put these risks in perspective, let’s turn to this week's exclusive interview with one of our favorite guests.

Mike Maharrey: Greetings, I'm Mike Maharrey and I'm joined today by Greg Weldon, who so graciously at the last minute agreed to come on. I had a guest cancel and I really appreciate Greg. He's a great guy, a longtime analyst and the publisher of the Global Macro Strategy Report. He's filled a wide range of roles over the years from floor trader to institutional futures broker to hedge fund manager, and just a great bit of wisdom and knowledge we get to share with you today. So Greg, thanks for being here. How are you?

Greg Weldon: I'm great. I'm great. How are you? I would add that we are also a licensed registered trading advisor managing money because it's really important you have skin in the game and that people understand that I'm just here pontificating. I'm actually, this is part of my regiment to serve my own money management business is the work I do here that becomes the research.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, absolutely.

Greg Weldon: So I think that's important for people to know. Yeah.

Mike Maharrey: Good point. Glad you brought that up. So, speaking of the Global Macro Strategy report, you're working on one even, well, not as we speak, but before we speak, you're about to publish that. It's like 70-some pages and the title of it is simply Chaos. And that really grabbed my attention. So I'm curious, give us an overview. I mean, I think most people hear that. They think, yeah, there's a lot of chaos, but what specifically are you focusing in on here?

Greg Weldon: I'm talking about, so we talked to one of the previous interviews about tipping points and how many tipping points there were. It started with the JGB market and it's extrapolated into a sequence of tipping points. We've talked about El Nino and the long-term changes on the planet physically, electrically, energy wise, and how that's going to affect the planet, crops, resources, the whole nine yards, and this is a bigger picture going forward. But when you start to talk about some of the things going on now that to me is kind of crystallizing around this midterm election, to me, this is a real potential defining point. I kind of hope it isn't in the way that it looks like it will be and that the silent majority can still rise up and defeat communism and socialism and all these other unamerican types of way. And so, it's whatever.

I'm not necessarily, we need immigration for the labor market. I mean, it's a must, it's always been. My parents are Irish immigrants, so my grandparents are. So I understand the importance. I understand that every group of immigrants has been pretty much chastised and put down and so on and so forth. So this is kind of the way it is. You got to work your way into society by providing something. And what we have is Somali warlords stealing taxpayer money. We have South American drug gangs roaming the streets. You have a communist mayor in Manhattan 25 years after nine eleven. I mean, holy mackerel, think about the families that lost people there and looking around like what has happened to this country in the last 25 years? So in this kind of dynamic, this election is bringing it to the fore and almost to a bubbling point at the same time where all these little conflicts are growing and kind of starting to coagulate together a little bit.

When you talk about Russia and Ukraine, well, this is certainly gone Mandelbaum, to use the old Seinfeld thing, taking it up a notch. And to the degree to which now, I don't know how many people understand this, but Latvia's targeted, Lithuania is targeted, the Baltic states. Why? Because in Latvia you have Rega, which is a major port city. Ukraine destroyed a good part of the St. Petersburg port that Russia has on the North Sea at Baltic Sea leading into the North Sea, at the Atlantic, a major shipping point. Rega is so much closer to the Atlantic, so much closer to all delivery points, especially for grains and stuff like that to Russia that would be very advantageous for Russia to have it strategically in terms of trade because this is a global resource war that started in 2018 and it's intensifying now and it has to do with geography and it's a big deal.

So, I spend the first six pages breaking down the geography that maybe not everyone puts together all the little pieces of the puzzle because it fits in everywhere. When you're talking about Crimea and shipping down through Greece and so on and so forth, when you talk about this whole thing around bringing oil over the top and down the Atlantic and then through the Suez Canal, and then you're talking about the new both of these straits, you're talking about then the shipping where? To China, because that's what it's all about. You have the triangle over there, OPEC, Russia, China. And now Russia wants to take parts of Europe out and they are started like this hybrid war. Lithuania's put in militarized zones. Latvia's already done this. They've had incursions, they've had drone attacks, they've had cyber attacks, it's called hybrid war. They already have a name for it.

Germany and France have also been targeted. Poland's involved. And I think that this is a much bigger picture story if people understood Putin was brazen enough to march on Ukraine. You don't think he's going to stop Lafia? And now Lithuania, already Latvian troops have been trained by the US for a long time, but now Lithuania has bid to pay the US to have boots on the ground in the country permanently. So this is already coalescing into something that could just blow up in some unusual way. The bottom line is the risk is through roof. And then you're talking pneumonic plague in Russia, potentially weapons factory of sorts, a laboratory. I mean, that might be over hyped, but it's risk, man, and it's risk of many ways. Then you talk about the Middle East. This war's not over. And Mike, we have agreed on this and I've talked on your show now about this.

The war was over in April, the war was over in May, it was over June, it was over July, it was over in August, it was over... And it's like I told you the whole time, they don't care about winning or losing. The only thing, China, Xi, pulling the puppets and the mulas, extend this war to the midterms. That was the whole goal. The mulas have outplayed the art of the deal and it pains me to say that. I love the Trump vision. The execution's been horrific and it continues to be that he's paying himself in a corner. You can't get out without paying on yourself. It saddens me because it could have been really great, but he's kind of his own worst enemy. He's talking now about we have a shrinking trade deficit. No, no, no we don't. No, we don't. We just posted one of the largest trade deficits in history. You're talking about Dog was going to cut spending and this was going to help balance the budget.

This is going to be the third deepest budget deficit in the fiscal year just ended. It's going to be 1.97. And if you subtract customs receipts, which is taxes and tariffs from that, you're looking at the deficits closer to 2.4 trillion. Either way, it's still the third deepest deficit in US history. So that's a whole scam of the DOJ is going to do this and tariffs are going to pay for this. Tariffs rub somewhere between 360 and 410 billion on a rolling seasonally adjusted annualized rate. So let's call it, let's be generous and say it's 400 billion. That's a drop in the bucket when you're talking about a $2 trillion deficit. So from that perspective, it's very difficult to see how this is something you should be out there celebrating and champion. There's the customs receipts. This is what they call basically import duties and taxes, this is tariffs.

It reflects the tariffs. Obviously you can see the increase. And while that's a huge increase and you can say we have record income from this, it belies the fact that it's not what it was intended to be, which was to take down the deficit to some degree and it's going to help us reduce the deficit. It has not because the deficit excluding this as a positive, which it is, without this, just the tariffs. Okay, you have a 2.4 trillion deficit instead of a 1.97 trillion deficit. Either way, it's the third deepest deficit in US history. And the other two, of course, were 20 and 21 in the pandemic. So you can take a lot of these things, and I could even just keep going, talk about so many of them, all coalescing at the same time when other risks exist that people don't really think about because they've been put on the back burner, specifically Taiwan and REEs, REOs, rare earths.

So that's a whole ‘nother thing that no one talks about. Why? Because I said at the beginning of the year, you're going to have a situation where what kind of looks like happened at the end of this year was we made a deal with China, you take Taiwan, we take Venezuela. Boom. I mean, it's kind of happening that way. Not only the Kuomintang Party, the opposition party in Taiwan, blocked the arms deal and have made overtures to Xi to reunite the country. So that's an interesting point. So, there's all these things happening at the same time, coalescing and then really bubbling up to this election, which could be a turning point. El Sayed, he's well-spoken, he's good looking, he's sharp and he carries himself well, and he's a really good politician because he babbles on, he says absolutely nothing. So he's a risk to this extent.

And to see that these guys are ahead in here in Texas, I mean, again, the polarization has gotten to the point where they already have a beachhead. They have the mayorship of the country's largest city and they've taken over Minnesota, they've taken over Michigan. So to the degree to which really the systemic risk, and it's almost like an existential risk to United States, has grown exponentially in this last phase of Trump's period when I think he has made a few key policy errors, just it's unfortunate, let alone the position the Fed's going to be in.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. It's a curiosity to me. We've got this chaos and you outlined it perfectly. And yet the two things that are typically safe havens in the investing world are both struggling. You've got a bond market meltdown in effect, and then gold and silver are both. They're holding their ground, but they're not gaining it. What's going on here? Are people just ignoring the risk completely or are they going somewhere else? How are investors responding to this?

Greg Weldon: I think there's a really good question. That's the kind of question we try and one of the first questions we answer every day because we have all these questions, so we answer them every day and then refute or support our thesis. And in this case, it's the dollar. It's that simple. You see even to the degree that the yield curve may be steepening, which is suggesting to Fed, "Hey, look, Wars came out and talked the talk. He invoked the ghost of Volker, even mentioned the guy who raised interest rates 20%, like I'm going to be the next Paul Volker, he's my hero." That's the words he used. He's my hero. And when you kind of come out swinging like that, man, you better hit something or you're going to tie yourself out real fast. I don't know how to make the analogy here, but he softened this tone, all of a sudden it's going to be the left side of the decimal point.

Remember that? So in other words, not 2%, below 2% inflation. And if you look at where the policy rate is right now, it's not tight. It's barely neutral. You could say in some cases it's even stimulative, especially if inflation rises again, which I believe it will. And then you talk about, let's talk about the other thing. Or here's the other thing. Well, and this all boosts the dollar because US bonds are outperforming on the downside in price, upside in yield, most of the rest of the world. So the bond yield spreads are blowing out, particularly against Europe because Europe is more at risk now. Those stock markets look terrible, man. I'm telling you, the Euro stocks, CAC, the French, France is imploding. Germany just had a wild election. You want to talk about chaos. I mean, all these things are happening at the same time.

When Russia's looking to step in and test NATO, Germany has a political crisis, France has a fiscal crisis. Timing's kind of right there, man. And I'm not trying to promote that as something I would like to see happen. I'm saying that's the risk. And the stock market has not taken this risk into account yet, but you're starting to see it hit because it's undeniable. So in terms of gold and silver, they will rise when the dollar gets played because the dollar will always get played. You know that. That's going to be the end game. We'll be to try and reflate our way out of it. We're in the debt black hole. If we did have 40 trillion in public debt and another 20 trillion in household debt, we might organically grow out. It's never going to happen. We know this since 2008. We're in the black hole.

You have to try and get more propulsion to your spaceship to avoid the gravitational pull. It's ultimately going to crush you. But no matter how much propulsion you use, you're not going to get out of it. You might stay away from the crushing point, which is what we're doing. What's the propulsion? Lighting dollars on fire. That's our propulsion. So, that's the next big play. That's when gold soar, that will also be when you'll have a buying opportunity in stocks. It'll be a major buying opportunity, but passive investment in stocks will not keep pace with the debasement and the pursing power of the US currency. But right now that's not happening. So what you have is a yield curve and a dollar and the spreads and credit spreads are widening. And that's another one too right here. Credit spreads started widening all of a sudden and that really hadn't been happening through this.

That all says deflationary event, and that's not necessarily good for any assets. So I think that's where gold is kind of almost flashing signals to the Fed that it's kind of tough to be the Fed. I've said this at the beginning of the year, they'll be forced to acquiesce to higher general rates of inflation to bail out the consumer, and we are there now. And this is why he hasn't acted more aggressively. But what I meant to say before too, just to add, make a long answer longer, is that M2 is growing exponentially. The Fed's expanding their balance sheets by hundreds of billions of dollars. They're buying all T-bills when Bessent is rolling long-term debt into short-term debt in T bills. And they have 987, 978 billion that they plan to do this year. Take from the long end, put it in the short end.

They're going to do that and worse and these guys do together. If Worst is going to take rates to 6%, that would be suicide. So either somebody doesn't know what the hell they're doing or all these guys are in cahoots and you can kind of see that play out. So I think ultimately that is really good for gold and silver because we see already QE, it's stealth QE already to bail out directly from the rollback of US debt into the short term. It's happening. It's direct and people aren't talking about it at all. So you got a lot going on. And I think that that's a reason longer term gold and silver will perform. I mean 3450. We said this was an ABC correction, but you had a mini ABC in the meantime thinking, well, if the dollar did crack, that could be enough to send you to the next level.

But I also said it could be just A, and this rally that we just had was the B wave. And the C wave would bring you down to 3450, somewhere around 3,500 based on the whole long-term counts and still be structurally very much a long-term bull market. And I believe in the one to three year period, you're going to be 8,500 to 10,000.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. To reiterate a couple of points that you made in regards to the looseness or tightness of monetary policy, folks can go check out the Chicago Fed's Financial Conditions Index. Just Google that and you will find that it is actually negative right now, which will tell you that we have a historically loose monetary policy right now. And in fact, it's been like that through the entirety of the tightening cycle, which a lot of people I don't think realized. Another good point you made was the money supply growth. I started calculating whenever they do the CPI, I've started doing my own little inflation report where I include the money supply growth. And it's running right about 5% right now, which I say is probably a more honest inflation rate than the 3.5. And accelerating. The near term rate's like seven and a half. So

I like to look at that was the three, six, 12-month, and you see it was accelerating or decelerating and it's accelerating pretty damn rapidly. They're pumping, man. And that's I think showing their fear of what the consumer's position is going to be in this next round of inflation. We could talk energy. I mean, here again, it's kind of this policy dynamic where the war ends in April, May, June, July, August, September, and when that happens, we're going to have gas below $2. Well, even if the war ended in April, gas would still not be below $2 because we have a gasoline shortage, we have a refinery issue, and we have a supply deficit in crude oil on a day-to-day basis, three to three and a half million barrels a day because we're through more than we produce, even though we produce record amounts. That's true.

The disconnect is still there and that's why you have gasoline problems with big deficits and this kind of thing. Gas could come down to 265 to 285, but gas could also continue higher on the creep because you have supplies below already where you would be at the end of November and the season will turn. This has been the case for weeks, well below the five-year average, extending that deficit dramatically, year-over-year deficit, two-year deficit, and the rebuild will be very interesting when you need diesel. So we will see what happens because this is a longer term problem because of the supply deficits that we have through this, not necessarily caused by this, but exacerbated by this for sure.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. This is the kind of analysis that I love to get from you when we talk. And it just kind of occurred to me. I think what a lot of people tend to do is we tend to isolate various events. So you've got the Iran-US conflict, and then you've got Russia-Ukraine, and then you've got the situation in China, and then you've got... And think of all of these things in silos when really you need to look at it holistically because you've got this entire, almost like a cauldron of bubbling soup, right? Yeah.

Greg Weldon: It's a thousand piece puzzle and you don't have a picture of what it's supposed to look like. So this is what it's like almost every day, trying to put all the piece together. And I love to connect the dots. I love to find anomalies in the math. I love to dispute things that the general narrative is. Doing things like that to me is part of it. And I think Bruce Covner, if you remember the book Market Wizards by Jack Schwager, good friend of mine, used to work with him at Prudential. I was their bullion guide back then in the day, working with John Fallon too, legendary bullion broker in New York. But it's like... I forgot where I was going. I'm going down memory lane in my head right now and I forgot what the whole point was, but I think that it is. It's one of these things where it's an epiphany to people at some point in time.

And this is the way that things, because of the short-term nature of people's attention spans, because of social media where people, especially younger people will read something. We let machines make decisions for us. We let machines tell us what the reality is and to describe anything you want to know about. And then when you get that two minutes worth of learning, you think you know everything about it and cannot be disputed. So this is kind of problematic from a more secular view. But yeah, man, I'll tell you what, this is the times you need to do something to take protection in terms of the preservation of the purchasing power of your wealth. This is what you guys do, and you do it really well when you're talking about the physical metals. I mean, it's not like you can just bring a whole bunch of gold into your house either.

So, you want to have various investments. To me, I want paper gold, I want money shares, I want coins, and that's what I have. And so I recommend the people that are listening to this, if they're not clients of yours, they should be because I use the service and you guys are great. And I've dealt with everyone in the past. Monax used to be a big one. It was one of the first ones I started when I was at Lehman Brothers and they were legendary back then. So I've seen them come, I've seen them go, and you guys have stuck around and done a great job. I think people need to take advantage of this because the basement and the purchasing power of the dollar with 60 trillion in public and household debt is going to come. It's going to come sooner rather than later.

And the Fed has already given us tells that shift, that acquiescing to higher inflation to protect the economy, because you can't have a debt deflation, which you will have if you don't have enough growth to pay down the debt, to service the debt. You know how it is with the budget deficit. Are you kidding me? I mean, there were three months in this fiscal year where they spent more than twice as much as they took in. I mean, that's ludicrous. And a lot of IT fraud. And again, they were supposed to be fixing this and the rubber hasn't hit the road on that yet, really. At least visibly.

Mike Maharrey: Well, and I've said this for a long time. The problem is, as with many things, the incentives are just working against ever fixing that problem because politicians are incentivized to the short term. They want to get reelected. And fixing this debt issue is a long term problem. It's going to cause a lot of pain. Nobody wants to cause the pain because they want to get reelected. So, I'm not confident that they'll ever get it under control.

Greg Weldon: It means a lower standard of living unless you can have your money in somewhere that will keep pace with the purchasing power, the basement of the paper currency. And that's where I think it's a time to be more active for individual investors.

Mike Maharrey: I've got a question. I'll get you out on this. And you're talking about things that kind of don't add up, right? This doesn't add up to me because right now we're in a situation, a lot of people are selling gold in this environment that we've just described. And I know this from watching the ticker, and I also know this anecdotally talking to folks over at Money Metals. There's a lot of selling going on right now. And the conventional wisdom, of course, is higher interest rate environment, gold non-yielding, therefore not a good time for gold. How would you address somebody who has that mindset? Make the case for gold in this higher interest rate environment.

Greg Weldon: I can see an all-out collapse in a bond market before I ever see it in the gold market right here. End of story. I mean, that's a simple case. Look at the JGBs, look at the past, look at Europe. I mean, how much does Europe look like 2011? You kind of lead into another good point, which is all of these things have tenants of something in the past. And I've seen this entire movie, man, since 82 really essentially, and to the degree to which it's not like it's all similar to one of them. It's pieces of this are similar to every one of them. And when you look at some of the data or you look at the performance of the consumer shares, particularly against the broader market, but particularly data in the labor market, in inflation, certainly in interest rates, we're seeing it now.

Greg Weldon: I mean, you're talking data points that are at levels that we've only seen in 2020 and 2007 and 2008 and maybe 2000. So to me, this is the level of risk that you're looking at. So I think that the degree to which you think bonds are going to be a safe haven, bonds could be the catalyst for the next thing. We've seen that in Japan. The debtor dynamic here is much worse. And I think that's, again, the tell coming from the Fed right now with their stealth QE and looseness means they understand this. And if BESA means he's going to control the bond market, then that means then they should be raising rates, but they're not. So this is all very interesting, man. And here you go again with the puzzles that you got to put the pieces in. But I think that I've seen the bond crisis and that can be vicious.

And if you have an all-out deflation, which could be caused by higher yields, there'll be an amazing buying opportunity for gold because that's going to be the term when they cut rates. Bonds will rally, not even close, stocks will rally more than bonds in that environment.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. Yeah. Very, very good points. All right. So, folks are listening. Hopefully they've seen the width and breadth of your analysis. Where can they go to avail themselves of it if they haven't already? Where can they find Greg Weldon?

Greg Weldon: Sure. Thanks, Mike. I would just say shoot me an email at Greg, G-R-E-G, Weldon, W-E-L-D-O-N at weldononline, one word, weldononline.com, and I'll send you Chaos. I mean, I think this is a good piece. I mean, there's so much more going on macroeconomically that's not in this piece, and I have a really good economic piece from a week ago, and including the one we did two weeks ago, warning on gold with a second breakdown. But yeah, what's interesting about that, I'll just segue into one more answer, because in terms of the selling of gold, I mean, it's kind of interesting to look at how this technically is a major sell signal in gold. So I mean, my technical models and even the quantitative side is kind of screaming sell. I'm not taking that trade. There's no way, because when it turns, it's going to be vicious, and we know how it is.

Okay, the downside risk is limited here to me, and even if it gets out of hand, it's still limited relative to everything else, and relative to where you might get back in when the thing reverses. So that's another, what's that percentage? It's going to come down and you got out up here. Is it here when you buy it back? Is it here? Is it here? It's not going to be down here. So I think that for long-term investors, this is no reason to sell, even though the technicals and the quantitative and some of the psychology around it is to sell. I don't buy selling right here, if you get what I'm saying.

Mike Maharrey: I do. I like that. I don't buy selling. I just shared the screen and just kind of wanted to pop up and throw the GMSR report just so people can see just the detail that you have.

Greg Weldon: Yeah, bring up these charts. Look at the other side of the world. There's all the shipping rates and all the countries involved. I mean, come on, China's made moves on Taiwan, on the Philippines. Why? Fishing. Vietnam, why? Oil and gas rights, shipping rates with Taiwan, Korea, Japan. I mean, look at the pivot points. The three straight there are key to global trade. They're in the Middle East where it's totally out of control. Egypt was almost drawn in. I mean, come on, man. When you talk about chaos, you've got chaos on multiple fronts right now, and we're not even talking about El Nino and weather and potential natural disasters and the technic shifts we see in the planet and how this is some point only going to intensify and will cause more disruptions in supply chains that we can't even envision. So again, it's not like, oh, it's a gloom and doom thing.

Greg Weldon: No, that's a risk assessment, man, because that's the science.

Mike Maharrey: Yep. It's a realistic evaluation. This is not hype.

Greg Weldon: That's our job, risk and protection and try and grow the money using the opportunities in the inflation itself. I mean, don't be afraid of inflation. You got to use it to stay ahead of the game. It's always about being ahead of the curve. And the next round is going to be playing the things that are causing inflation.

Mike Maharrey: Because you're never going to beat it. I tell people this all the time, inflation is the plan. It is. It's the only way. That's what they want to do. That's what they have to do. Yeah, that's what they have to do. Because

Greg Weldon: Otherwise, that deflation would be way more painful, no doubt.

Mike Maharrey: Absolutely. Well, Greg, I really appreciate you taking time out. I know that you've been dealing with some health issues, and I really appreciate your energy that you have. You have far more than I would having just dealt with what you've dealt with. So thank you so much for spending a little time with me. And folks, do go check out Greg's work and avail yourself to what he's doing. He's a fantastic resource and appreciate you, man. Thanks a lot.

Greg Weldon: Let's point out not serious health issues though. I got hit by a bicycle and I had a wound and I got infected and wow, what an ordeal. But I'm 100% and yeah, not major health problems.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, then that's good to know. That's good. Thank you. All right, my friend. Well, we'll talk again soon. Thank you so much.

Greg Weldon: Take care, man. Thank you.

German Crooks Use Gold to Run Money Laundering Operation

Fri, 09 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

Some enterprising crooks in Germany figured out an ingenious way to launder money from their drug smuggling operation.

They turned it into real money.

According to German law enforcement officials, a gang used drug money to purchase scrap gold jewelry from jewelers involved in the case. They proceeded to melt down the jewelry and process it into bars that were subsequently smuggled into Turkey using aircraft and specially modified vehicles.

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Police say the criminal syndicate smuggled four tonnes of gold valued at €210 million ($235.5 million) over a six-year period.

Authorities say the gold was processed further in Turkey and sold, or used to buy high-end jewelry that was brought back to Germany and sold by participating jewelers.

The gang allegedly offered money laundering services to third parties in what Der Welt called a “crime-as-a-service” model.

It’s a brilliant money laundering scheme if you think about it. Gold is easy to transport and hard to trace. More significantly, gold will be in demand no matter where it ends up. Not everyone wants a stack of euros, but virtually everybody in the world recognizes gold's inherent value. It’s money that’s “good anywhere.”

Another benefit our intrepid criminals probably didn’t consider is that gold will preserve the value of their ill-gotten gains. If they keep their profits in euros, they will undoubtedly lose value over time as the EU inflates the currency. Gold will hedge against https://youtu.be/lmvFyBBJORM?si=2foGei55V-F386Lv"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">this inflationary process.

The scheme unraveled after police discovered 55 kilos of gold and nearly €500,000 in a vehicle during a traffic stop on the A3 Motorway in southern Bavaria. This led investigators to a gang made up primarily of Turkish men.

German authorities arrested three men and recovered 800 grams of melted gold. They also seized 12 vehicles with specially modified smuggling compartments.

Officials say 450 police and customs officers participated in the investigation. They searched about 40 homes and businesses, primarily belonging to jewelers. searched approximately 40 residential and business premises, primarily belonging to jewelers.

Metals Focus Forecasts Record Gold Prices and Rallying Silver in 2027

Fri, 09 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

While headwinds remain strong in the near term, Metals Focus forecasts new record highs for gold in 2027, with silver rallying along with it.

Gold Forecast

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After scaling record highs in January, gold corrected sharply and has faced headwinds ever since. https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/04/debasement-trade-supporting-gold-even-as-yields-spike-005265";>A bond selloff has driven long-term yields to levels not seen since 2001.

Metals Focus analysts say these headwinds will likely continue in the near-term, with “above-target U.S. inflation and the prospect of further Fed tightening." This will be exacerbated while the U.S.-Iran conflict continues.

However, Metals Focus analysts said they do not expect a full-blown rate-hiking cycle because of the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/11/15/debt-black-hole-putting-increasing-stress-on-american-consumers-004483";>massive Debt Black Hole dominating the global economy.

“Risks to economic growth should constrain the Fed’s ability to tighten aggressively. The resulting tradeoff between inflation and growth should reinforce gold’s role as a portfolio diversifier, particularly with U.S. equities trading record levels.”

In other words, Metals Focus recognizes https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/19/gold-the-federal-reserve-and-a-catch-22-004773";>the Fed is caught in a Catch-22. Despite the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/17/hut-hut-hike-the-fed-raised-rates-now-what-005211";>September rate hike, its inflation-fighting ability is constrained, no matter how hawkish Warsh & Co. sound.

Metals Focus emphasized worries that ever-growing https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/the-40-trillion-national-debt-in-perspective-005151";>U.S. debt will continue to drive https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/28/with-bonds-struggling-investors-turning-to-tangible-assets-like-gold-005096";>the debasement trade.

“As concerns over the sustainability of U.S. debt continue to grow, we believe the outlook for gold remains strong. Large government deficits, rising debt-servicing costs and uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy should encourage further diversification away from traditional dollar assets, particularly among institutional and official sector investors.”

Central banks have driven this debasement trade, and Metals Focus analysts expect them to https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/08/german-central-bank-chief-says-theres-a-good-case-for-central-bank-gold-buying-005274";>continue expanding gold reserves.

“Central banks are also expected to remain substantial net buyers, providing an important floor for gold during periods of investor liquidation.”

Given these factors, Metals Focus forecasts gold investment demand will reach record highs in the next 12 months, pushing the yellow metal to “fresh all-time highs” next year. They project the annual average price will surge to $5,330, a 16 percent gain.

Silver Forecast

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Metals Focus analysts are also bullish on silver for many of the same reasons. They also note that its underperformance since its January record high “has improved its value proposition.” They note the recent recovery in ETF flows and futures positioning as evidence.

However, Metals Focus analysts say physical market conditions are “considerably less supportive” than a year ago when the market was in the early stages of the first https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/16/how-a-silver-shortage-sparked-a-historic-price-rally-004839";>silver squeeze.

“Weak Western bar and coin demand, sharply lower Indian imports and the recovery in the London free float have eased the liquidity pressures that helped propel silver higher in late 2025 and early 2026.”

Higher prices have also dented demand. Jewelry offtake has sagged. Industrial silver users are aggressively thrifting and seeking substitution opportunities. Metals Focus said they expect industrial fabrication to “ease back.”

However, a fundamental metal shortage continues. https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/04/17/silver-market-records-fourth-straight-supply-deficit-amidst-record-industrial-demand-003994";>Silver demand outstripped supply for four straight years, and even with a projected dip in industrial demand, the Silver Institute projects a fifth market deficit this year. That means silver users will have to source metal from existing above-ground stocks.

Meanwhile, the stage remains set for strong investment demand, and Metals Focus thinks this will serve as the silver market's primary driver over the next 12 months.

“We expect future gains to be driven primarily by renewed investor interest rather than physical tightness. This should see the white metal broadly track gold higher initially, before increasingly outperforming as renewed price momentum encourages investors to rebuild exposure."

Positive ETF Gold Flows Pushed Holdings to a New Record in September

Thu, 08 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

Despite https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/04/debasement-trade-supporting-gold-even-as-yields-spike-005265";>tremendous price pressure on gold from rising yields, more metal flowed into gold-backed ETFs last month, driving fund holdings to a new record.

According to the latest data compiled by the World Gold Council, ETFs globally increased their gold holdings by 67.3 tonnes to a record 4,256 tonnes.

ETF gold inflows totaled 211 tonnes valued at a record $31 billion in the third quarter.

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However, with falling gold prices, total assets under management (AUM) by gold-backed funds dipped 7 percent in September to $574 billion. Even so, gold ETF AUM grew 9 percent in Q3.

North American funds led the way in September, reporting a 27.7-tonne-increase in gold reserves valued at $4 billion.

AUM by North American gold funds rose by $12 billion in Q3.

As the World Gold Council noted, “This first quarterly inflow of 2026 marked a sharp reversal from the weakness seen earlier in the year, bringing y-t-d flows firmly into positive territory at $4.1billion.”

Notably, North American ETFs increased their gold holdings in Q3 given what the World Gold Council described as a “challenging domestic backdrop.”

“The https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/17/hut-hut-hike-the-fed-raised-rates-now-what-005211";>Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points during the month and signaled that further tightening could follow, contributing to upward pressure on Treasury yields and the dollar. These developments increased the opportunity cost of holding gold and weighed on its price. Nevertheless, persistent inflation and elevated energy prices, concerns over equity valuations – particularly in AI-related sectors – and increased bond-market volatility may have reinforced gold’s appeal as a portfolio diversifier. Continued inflows also suggest that some investors viewed the price pullback as an opportunity to build or maintain strategic positions rather than reduce exposure.”

European ETFs also had a strong September, with gold holdings rising by 21.7 tonnes valued at $3.6 billion. During Q3, European ETF gold buying set a quarterly record of $14 billion.

UK-based funds drove European buying, adding $2.2 billion worth of gold in September. UK-based gold ETFs increased their gold reserves for 12 of the 13 weeks in Q3, adding $7.5 billion in gold, a quarterly record. The World Gold Council called it “the most consistent run since 2022.”

“Recent inflows have coincided with a rising gilt term premium, potentially reflecting broader investor concerns over inflation uncertainty, fiscal sustainability and sovereign bond-market risks; factors that may have reinforced gold’s appeal as a portfolio diversifier.”

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Asian funds added 16.2 tonnes of gold in September, valued at $2.3 billion. It was the third straight month of inflows after a brief pause last summer.

Chinese funds reported the largest positive gold flows, while activity also increased in India, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore. The World Gold Council said this highlights "the breadth of regional buying."

Chinese funds continued to attract investors despite a weaker gold price “amid renewed weakness in domestic equities and declining government bond yields, both of which supported gold’s relative appeal.”

Weakness in the Indian stock market also supported gold buying.

ETFs in other regions, including Africa and Australia, reported a 1.7-tonne increase in gold holdings valued at $104 million.

Australian funds accounted for virtually all monthly buying, adding $106 million in gold. Australian investment offset modest outflows from South Africa.

ETFs are a convenient way for investors to play the gold market, but https://youtu.be/7aP6VbgXVeM?si=O3yPeFkTYFHOXrHe"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">owning ETF shares is not the same as holding physical gold.

ETFs are relatively liquid. You can buy or sell an ETF with a couple of mouse clicks. You don’t have to worry about transporting or storing metal. In a nutshell, they let investors play the gold market without buying full ounces of metal at the spot price.

Since you're just buying a number on a screen, you can easily trade your ETF shares for another stock or cash whenever you want, even multiple times on the same day. Many speculative investors take advantage of this liquidity.

But while a gold ETF is a convenient way to play gold's price, you don’t possess any gold. You have paper. And you don’t know for sure that the fund has all the gold, especially when it sees inflows. In such a scenario, there have been difficulties or delays in obtaining physical metal.

Trading Volumes

Gold market activity was generally stable in September, with average daily trading volumes dipping modestly by 2 percent to $423 billion per day across all major market segments.

Over-the-counter (OTC) trading volumes rose 1 percent on the month to $229 billion per day. LBMA activity supported OTC trading, with a 1 percent month-on-month increase to $200 billion per day. This is well above the 2025 average.

COMEX trading edged 1 percent lower last month, while net open interest in COMEX gold options retreated to levels last seen in early August. However, it remained significantly higher than when gold reached its record high in January.

Total COMEX longs fell by 11 percent to 654 tonnes.

Managed money net longs fell by 84 tonnes to 387 tonnes.

The Inflation Illusion: How Government Formulas Shape the Data

Thu, 08 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

Every month, the government releases a barrage of economic statistics. Employment, inflation, consumer spending, economic growth, and countless other measurements are presented as objective facts that policymakers, investors, and the public can use to understand the economy.

But what happens when the methodology used to produce those numbers changes?

In this episode of the Midweek Memo, Mike Maharrey examines how government agencies calculate and revise economic data, arguing that seemingly small methodological decisions can have a significant effect on the picture those statistics present.

His focus is particularly sharp on inflation data — including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/04/government-revises-feds-favorite-inflation-indicator-to-further-understate-inflation-005264";>Federal Reserve's preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index — and the implications for anyone trying to determine how quickly purchasing power is actually eroding.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/GaXw5PyTaW0?si=W0BCabl_tQu9W9RM"; title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen">

https://play.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/43206948/height/192/theme/modern/size/large/thumbnail/yes/custom-color/1e40af/time-start/00:00:00/playlist-height/200/direction/backward/font-color/FFFFFF"; scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="true" msallowfullscreen="true">

When Data Starts Shaping Reality

Maharrey opens the episode with an example of how easily people can be persuaded to accept something as reality simply because it looks convincing.

He recounts a viral story about a zookeeper supposedly rescued by a tiger after collapsing near its enclosure. The accompanying photographs appeared authentic, but the entire story — including the images — had been generated by artificial intelligence.

The lesson extends beyond AI-generated photographs.

If an image that never happened can become accepted as fact because it looks real, Maharrey argues, statistics can have a similar effect. Numbers carry an additional aura of authority because they are presented as objective measurements.

But economic data isn't simply observed. Much of it is constructed through surveys, estimates, assumptions, formulas, seasonal adjustments, and subsequent revisions.

That means the methodology matters.

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Employment Numbers Don't Always Tell the Same Story

Maharrey points to Bureau of Labor Statistics employment data as one example.

Initial employment reports are frequently revised as more information becomes available. Revisions themselves aren't necessarily evidence of a problem — collecting nationwide employment data is complicated, and adjustments are expected.

The question, he argues, is why those revisions have historically tended to move disproportionately in one direction.

According to the figures discussed in the episode, between 2003 and 2024, final annual BLS employment numbers were lower than the initial reports 14 times, compared with seven upward revisions.

That raises a broader question: if https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/07/what-an-awful-jobs-report-and-dont-skip-over-the-revisions-005122";>major economic statistics can change substantially after their initial release, how much confidence should people place in the first number they see?

The Inflation Formula Matters

The bigger issue in the episode is inflation.

Maharrey explains that the government changed the methodology used to calculate the CPI during the 1990s because officials believed the existing approach overstated inflation.

The result is that today's inflation statistics cannot simply be compared with historical numbers without considering how the underlying methodology has changed.

Maharrey argues that if the government were still using a methodology similar to the one employed during the 1970s, today's reported CPI inflation rate would be considerably higher than the official figure.

Whether one accepts that comparison or not, the larger point remains: inflation isn't measured with a ruler. It is calculated using a formula — and formulas involve assumptions.

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Why the Fed Prefers PCE

The episode then turns to the PCE price index, the inflation measure favored by the Federal Reserve.

PCE and CPI measure inflation somewhat differently, including differences in the way consumer spending patterns and changes in consumption are incorporated into the calculations.

Maharrey notes that https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/14/beyond-the-cpi-the-complete-inflation-story-august-2026-005198";>PCE has historically tended to run below CPI over longer periods. He then examines a recent revision by the Bureau of Economic Analysis that changed the PCE methodology.

According to the episode, the adjustment lowered the reported measure of core PCE inflation by roughly 0.1 percentage point.

That may sound insignificant.

But when policymakers use these statistics to determine interest-rate policy, and when investors use them to assess the purchasing power of the dollar, even seemingly small changes can influence how the economy is perceived.

The Problem With "Substitution"

One of the more important concepts discussed is the use of substitution within inflation calculations.

Consumers don't always continue buying the exact same products when prices change. If the price of one item rises significantly, consumers may switch to another product.

Statistical formulas attempt to account for those changes in purchasing behavior.

But doing so introduces assumptions about how consumers respond to changing prices.

Maharrey argues that these adjustments can make measured inflation appear less severe than the increase in the cost of maintaining a comparable standard of living might suggest.

This is particularly important because official inflation statistics aren't merely academic measurements. They influence monetary policy, government programs, financial markets, and public perceptions of the economy.

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Inflation Can Be Hidden by the Measurement

Maharrey's broader argument is that monetary inflation and price inflation aren't necessarily the same thing.

The government can expand the money supply and increase borrowing and spending, but the resulting price increases can become politically difficult when consumers feel their purchasing power deteriorating.

If inflation appears lower in the official statistics, however, the political and economic consequences may also appear less severe.

That creates an incentive — intentional or otherwise — for policymakers to focus on the most favorable interpretation of the numbers.

The result is a disconnect between what the statistics say and what people experience in their everyday lives.

A consumer doesn't experience "core PCE." They experience grocery bills, rent, insurance premiums, healthcare costs, gasoline, and other expenses.

And when those costs rise faster than official inflation suggests, people can understandably feel that the government statistics don't match reality.

Why Gold and Silver Enter the Conversation

This debate over inflation ultimately brings Maharrey back to precious metals.

If the purchasing power of fiat currency is gradually eroded, assets that exist outside the monetary system can become increasingly attractive to people looking for a way to preserve wealth.

Gold and silver have historically served this role.

Maharrey argues that investors shouldn't simply accept an official inflation figure without understanding how it was produced. Instead, they should recognize that changes in methodology can alter the way inflation is presented without changing the underlying prices consumers face.

The issue isn't necessarily that every government statistic is fabricated.

Rather, the methodology behind the statistic determines what the number actually tells you.

And when the methodology changes, the historical comparison can become much more complicated.

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A "Nickel's Worth" of Advice About Gold Scams

The episode closes on a very different — but practical — topic: precious-metals scams.

Maharrey highlights a https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/02/warning-dont-hand-gold-to-strangers-at-walmart-005259";>recent Illinois case involving a bizarre gold scam in which victims were instructed to hand over gold in a Walmart parking lot after being approached by strangers using the phrase "black bug."

The unusual details may make the story memorable, but the underlying lesson is straightforward: don't hand your gold or money to an unknown person simply because they make a convincing pitch.

As precious metals attract greater attention, scams targeting buyers and owners can become an increasingly important concern.

Maharrey encourages listeners to work with established, reputable dealers and to exercise caution whenever someone approaches them with an unusual offer involving gold or silver.

Looking Beyond the Headline Number

The larger message of this week's Midweek Memo is that economic statistics deserve scrutiny.

Inflation numbers, employment reports, and other government data can provide valuable information, but they aren't immutable facts handed down from above. They are estimates produced through methodologies that can change over time.

Understanding those methodologies makes it easier to recognize why official statistics sometimes don't seem to correspond with what people experience in their daily lives.

And for anyone concerned about the long-term purchasing power of the dollar, that distinction matters.

If inflation is more persistent than the headline numbers suggest, then protecting purchasing power becomes a different proposition entirely — and it helps explain why investors continue to look toward assets such as gold and silver as potential stores of value.

Bundesbank Bank Chief Says There's a Good Case for Continued Central Bank Gold Buying

Thu, 08 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

If you want to know why central banks are stacking gold, ask a central banker.

Last month, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/06/central-bank-summer-gold-spree-continued-in-august-005270";>global gold reserves increased by another 39 tonnes, as central banks continued a buying spree that began several years ago. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said the move makes sense given growing levels of government debt.

On the one hand, rising yields have made bonds more attractive in recent months. Yields on the 10-year and 30-year Treasuries are at levels not seen since 2001. This has created significant headwinds for gold and silver in recent months. However, Nagel said the reason behind rising yields should give bond investors pause.

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“The recent rise in global government bond yields has boosted the relative attractiveness of debt securities again. At the same time, rising debt levels have increased concerns about the credit risk of these assets. Furthermore, geopolitical risks are likely to continue to shape reserve management decisions.”

Growing concern about https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/the-40-trillion-national-debt-in-perspective-005151";>U.S. government borrowing and spending and the apparent lack of political will to address the problem, along with growing worries about https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/22/us-doubling-down-on-weaponization-of-the-dollar-005224";>the weaponization of the dollar as a foreign policy tool, is driving what pundits have dubbed “https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/28/with-bonds-struggling-investors-turning-to-tangible-assets-like-gold-005096";>the debasement trade.”

This investment strategy emphasizes holding tangible assets such as gold, silver, and other commodities to protect against the constant debasement of fiat currencies and their dwindling purchasing power.

This is exactly what central banks are doing. They’re limiting their exposure to U.S. Treasuries and stacking gold. Earlier this year, the European Central Bank confirmed that https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/06/02/ecb-confirms-gold-has-overtaken-treasuries-as-top-global-reserve-asset-004959";>gold had overtaken Treasuries as the top global reserve asset.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-05/nagel-sees-good-case-for-central-bank-diversification-into-gold"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg identified Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions as a catalyst for the debasement trade.

“More recently, growing worries about the U.S.’s growing debt load have fueled expectations that central banks could diversify away from the dollar and boost their gold holdings further.”

In a speech in Italy, Nagel concluded that with the weaponization of the dollar and U.S. fiscal malfeasance, “The case for further diversification into gold remains significant.”

Other central bankers agree. In the latest https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/06/25/survey-central-bankers-plan-to-keep-stacking-gold-005007";>World Gold Council survey, they overwhelmingly said they expect global gold reserves will continue growing over the next 12 months. Officials at 45 percent of the central banks surveyed said they plan to expand reserves within the next year.

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Central bank gold demand has supported the market even as higher yields have hammered the metal lower. As https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/07/the-fed-trap-is-tightening-005273";>Gold Newsletter publisher Brien Lundin explained, “Gold is getting hit as bond yields surge. But look at why yields are rising, and the message for gold becomes much more bullish.”

Morgan Stanley commodities strategist Amy Gower said gold’s ability to hold $4,000 per ounce despite rising yields shows this demand factor is at work.

Valent Asset Management portfolio manager Jay Tatum agreed, comparing gold to a “compressed spring.”

“The temporary headwinds for gold are enormous and, in almost any other ‌environment, would probably have pushed prices significantly lower. Prices are not lower because underlying factors are so strong.”

The Fed Trap Is Tightening

Wed, 07 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

The Fed Trap Is Tightening

Gold is getting hit as bond yields surge. But look at why yields are rising, and the message for gold becomes much more bullish.

Gold is getting punched in the mouth again today.

And if you’ve been following this bull market for any length of time, you know that’s not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, it may be giving us exactly the opportunity we’ve been waiting for.

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Because this gold bull market has changed.

For roughly the first 18 months of the move, central-bank buying was the dominant force. Sovereign buyers steadily accumulated gold, largely insensitive to price, and helped propel the metal higher without the kind of meaningful corrections we would normally expect.

That phase is over.

Not the central-bank buying, mind you. That remains an important underlying source of demand.

But over the past year, Western investors have returned to the market in force. And with them have come the hedge funds, futures traders, momentum players and, increasingly, algorithmic trading programs.

The result? Volatility — stronger rallies…deeper corrections…bigger swings in sentiment in both directions.

That volatility creates victims.

But it also creates victors...for those who understand how to use it.

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Buy The Dips, Skim The Froth

There’s an old lesson in investing that becomes especially important during powerful bull markets.

Once you’ve determined that you’re in a secular bull trend, you have to resist the temptation to become bearish during every correction...and equally resist the temptation to become euphoric during every rally.

It boils down to this: You buy the dips. And when things get frothy, you skim some profits off the top.

Simple to say, but much harder to do when prices are moving quickly and every headline seems to confirm whatever the market happens to be doing that particular day.

Which brings us to where we are now.

Gold emerged from its first real correction in early August. Western trading helped drive that correction, just as Western traders helped fuel the powerful rally from those lows.

And now those same forces are pushing gold lower again as bond yields have gone vertical.

The knee-jerk explanation is straightforward: “Higher yields are bad for gold.” But there’s a problem with that explanation: Gold was initially rising right alongside those yields.

Why?

Because both markets were responding to the same thing: Fear. Specifically, growing concern over enormous sovereign debt loads, persistent inflation and the accelerating depreciation of fiat currencies.

That’s why we need to look beyond short-term price action.

Two Lessons…

I think the current metals weakness means we have to remember two important things….

First: The long-term drivers for gold remain firmly intact.

In fact, I’d argue that the surge in sovereign bond yields around the world is telling us that some of those drivers are intensifying at this very moment. Consider the emerging crisis in France, which is a pure analog to what’s going on around the world, including the U.S.

As I just posted on X:

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1Noj!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F55643074-3650-42ad-b1f7-ee9269080e65_1139x1137.png" alt="Post on X discussing France's debt crisis and gold" />

It’s clear that the markets are beginning to wrestle more seriously with the consequences of debt loads that cannot realistically be paid down in sound currencies.

Ultimately, those debts will have to be managed through currency depreciation.

While the timing is unknowable, the direction is clear. And that’s why it’s apparent that this is a secular bull market in gold that will not end anytime soon.

Which that brings us to the next lesson….

Second: If this is a bull market, we need to use the volatility rather than fear it.

We’re not going to pick the precise bottom of every correction. No one does, and nor should we try.

What we can do is recognize when a powerful secular trend is giving us an opportunity to buy quality assets at lower prices.

That means taking profits when speculation becomes excessive…cleaning up the portfolio during corrections…rotating away from the companies that aren’t performing…

…And using weakness to accumulate the companies that continue to demonstrate relative strength.

In other words, corrections like this aren’t something to endure. They’re something to exploit.

Originially published on Goldnewsletter.com

CIA Gold Thief Also Compromised Spy’s Identity, DOJ Says

Wed, 07 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

Previously unrevealed details about a rogue CIA officer’s massive gold theft were revealed Tuesday—including that the former officer, David Rush, shared the identity of one of the agency’s spies to a foreign government.

The details about Rush’s classified information leak were included in a https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.vaed.607104/gov.uscourts.vaed.607104.41.0.pdf"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">plea document filed Tuesday, the same day he officially pled guilty to executing a scheme to one count of wire fraud. Rush was arrested in May after authorities found some $40 million in gold bars at his home, which he siphoned from the government by creating a fake spy program.

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According to his plea document, the gold theft was only scratched the surface of his betrayal.

In total, Rush defrauded the government out of at least $194 million. His plea document says that along with the gold theft, he directed somebody else to transfer about $145 million to a holding company, then used those funds to acquire four “luxury” properties in Palm Beach and Hobe Sound, Florida.

Rush also committed a grave sin in the CIA—revealing the identify of an agent.

“RUSH revealed to a foreign government official the existence and certain descriptive information of a government clandestine human source,” the plea document says.

“The disclosure of such information could endanger the safety and life of the human source and the U.S. government officers working with the source and jeopardize the U.S. government’s ability to recruit human sources, who rely on the U.S. government’s assurance of absolute secrecy.”

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?creatorScreenName=HeadlineUSA&;amp;dnt=true&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=2107557197467320741&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fheadlineusa.com%2Fcia-gold-thief-also-compromised-spys-identity-doj-says%2F&sessionId=918a2625ec7a5ca71554905b26a9b573a7f54d8e&siteScreenName=HeadlineUSA&theme=light&widgetsVersion=6a3ad42b224df%3A1778106238597&width=550px" data-tweet-id="2107557197467320741" data-mce-fragment="1">

Despite the seriousness of his crimes, Rush only faces up to 20 years in prison for the one count of wire fraud. Anonymous sources have said that the DOJ cut a plea deal with him so the government wouldn’t have to reveal CIA secrets in open court.

Rush was first put under federal investigation due to him allegedly lying on his job resume—he allegedly obtained $77,000 in military leave by falsely claiming to be in the Navy, even though he was discharged in 2015.

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As the FBI’s investigation into Rush progressed, agents found that he allegedly made several requests to the government to obtain a “significant quantity” of foreign currency, as well as tens of millions of dollars in https://headlineusa.com/tag/gold"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">gold bars, for “work-related expenses” from last November to March.

“During the search, FBI agents seized approximately 303 gold bars, each of which weighs approximately one kilogram,” https://www.scribd.com/document/1044034039/David-Rush-Gold-Complaint"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">court records say. “Based on the current price of gold, the estimated value of the gold exceeds $40 million.”

Ken Silva is the editor of Headline USA. Follow him at https://x.com/jd_cashless";>x.com/jd_cashless.

Precious Metals News & Analysis - Gold News, Silver News from Money Metals Exchange

Greg Weldon’s Bold Gold Forecast as Debt and Inflation Risks Mount

Gold’s Rebound and Washington’s Gold Thief

Veteran market analyst Greg Weldon warns that growing financial instability, expanding money supply, and mounting government debt could propel gold to $8,500–$10,000 over the next one to three years.

Gold and Silver Rebound as Market Pressures Ease

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Money Supply Growth and the Prospect of Higher Inflation

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Geopolitical Tensions Add to the Uncertainty

Washington’s $40 Million Gold Theft Scandal

The Bigger Picture for Gold and Silver Investors

Is Platinum More Expensive Than Gold? - Platinum vs Gold Prices and Why Gold Has Cost More Since 2015 - Rarity, Gold to Platinum Ratio, and Resale Value - Money Metals

Platinum vs Gold at a Glance

Is Platinum More Expensive Than Gold Today?

Why Many People Think Platinum Costs More

When Did Gold Become More Expensive Than Platinum?

What Broke Platinum's Premium

Is Platinum Rarer Than Gold?

Why Is Gold Worth More If Platinum Is Rarer?

Platinum Deficits: Why Scarcity Hasn't Closed the Gap

The Gold to Platinum Ratio: How Investors Use It

Is Platinum Harder to Sell Than Gold?

Should You Buy Platinum or Gold?

Can You Hold Platinum in an IRA?

Platinum vs Gold FAQ

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The Bottom Line

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Silver Forecast

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When Data Starts Shaping Reality

Employment Numbers Don't Always Tell the Same Story

The Inflation Formula Matters

Why the Fed Prefers PCE

The Problem With "Substitution"

Inflation Can Be Hidden by the Measurement

Why Gold and Silver Enter the Conversation

A "Nickel's Worth" of Advice About Gold Scams

Looking Beyond the Headline Number

Bundesbank Bank Chief Says There's a Good Case for Continued Central Bank Gold Buying

The Fed Trap Is Tightening

The Fed Trap Is Tightening

Gold is getting hit as bond yields surge. But look at why yields are rising, and the message for gold becomes much more bullish.

Buy The Dips, Skim The Froth

Two Lessons…

CIA Gold Thief Also Compromised Spy’s Identity, DOJ Says