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The Fed Will Hike! Or It Won't. It Really Shouldn't Matter to a Gold or Silver Investor

Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Will they? Or won’t they?

That’s the question on everybody’s mind. Will the Federal Reserve finally pull the trigger and hike interest rates at next week's September meeting?

I’m about 50-50, maybe leaning slightly toward a hike. However, I don’t think it ultimately matters, because even if they do nudge rates up, I’m almost certain it will be a one-and-done tightening cycle.

And no. A rate hike isn’t bearish for gold and silver – as conventional wisdom would have you believe.

It’s Decision Time

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I’ve been writing about https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/19/gold-the-federal-reserve-and-a-catch-22-004773";>the Federal Reserve’s Catch-22 for months. The Fed simultaneously needs to hike rates to keep price inflation under control and cut rates to support the debt-riddled bubble economy.

It can’t do both.

So, which will it choose?

It feels like we are about to find out.

The situation has come to a proverbial head. If Warsh hikes at this meeting, it could tip the economy into a full-blown crisis. But if he doesn’t, he risks appearing feckless and weak.

Historically, central bankers ultimately cave to the economy. We’ve seen it time after time. When there is even a hint of a crisis, central banks tend to step in with monetary easing – inflation or no. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has muddied the water by talking himself into a corner.

You see, the new Fed chair wants you to know he’s going to be tough on inflation.

No, really.

He’s going to be super tough on inflation. He’s said it over and over again.

Think back to his https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/31/fed-chair-warsh-runs-open-mouth-operations-at-jackson-hole-but-can-he-deliver-005173";>Jackson Hole speech just a few weeks ago.

“The Fed's price-stability objective of 2 percent, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/04/what-is-the-pce-and-why-is-it-the-feds-favorite-inflation-gauge-005110";>PCE) price index, is a firm, fixed target,” Warsh went on to emphasize that it’s the central bank’s job to keep inflation reined in.

“That’s our job, our mandate, and our charge to keep.”

Warsh pointed out that “price stability is not self-executing, nor is inflation necessarily mean-reverting.”

“It is the Fed's job to deliver stable prices.”

This sounds like a man ready to hike rates to the moon.

Of course, talk is cheap. For all the jaw flapping, the Fed hasn’t done anything yet. So, is it just a lot of noise?

Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 70 to 72 chance of a quarter-percentage-point rate hike next week.

I can appreciate their reasoning. Price inflation remains mired well above the mythical 2 percent target. Oil prices spiked again over the last few weeks, reigniting inflation fears. (An oil price shock isn’t really “https://youtu.be/lmvFyBBJORM?si=7JcSiyJ4DxPNYtjg";>inflation,” but most people think it is, so we’ll accept this as a rationale.) The August jobs report was solid, giving the central bank some wiggle room to argue the economy is good and can handle a hike.

And then you have Warsh’s reputation. Don’t underestimate the importance of the Fed chair’s image. He’s talked a good game, but he needs to prove that he’s willing to put his (our) money where his mouth is. It won’t shock me if he pushes hard for a hike just because he feels like he needs to establish himself as the tough guy in the room.

However, I can also make a strong case for the Fed holding rates steady.

Forty-trillion reasons, in fact.

It’s pretty tough to contemplate a higher rate environment when https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/the-40-trillion-national-debt-in-perspective-005151";>the U.S. government is $40 trillion in debt and needs the central bank to support its borrowing and spending. Economies dominated by a https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/11/15/debt-black-hole-putting-increasing-stress-on-american-consumers-004483";>Debt Black Hole don’t do well with higher rates.

And everybody knows this. Of course, nobody will say it out loud. But I guarantee you they’re talking about it privately inside the hallowed halls of the Eccles Building.

Now, Fed people will claim they don’t consider fiscal policy when setting monetary policy. But I’ve heard that there are kids today claiming they’re cats. Doesn’t make it so.

And then there is the political pressure. President Trump threatened to cut off trade with every country that runs a trade surplus with the U.S. if the central bank doesn’t cut rates. It’s a rather absurd threat, but it has to have some impact, right? After all, Trump just hired Warsh.

If I’m thinking with a mainstream mindset, the arguments for holding rates steady outweigh those for a hike. The economy is far from “overheated.” CPI seems to be moving in the right direction. Raising interest rates can’t fix an oil price shock.

But I kind of agree with the consensus. I lean toward a rate hike, simply because Warsh doesn’t want to lose face. The European Central Bank just hiked, adding a little more pressure to the cooker.

Hike or Don't; It Doesn’t Matter

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Regardless, I don’t think it matters. Either way, we ultimately end up in the same place -- a crashing economy, surging inflation, and interest rates at zero.

If the Fed hikes, I think it will tip the economy. It’s already on the edge. The debt bubble is bulging. Economic growth is stagnant when you factor out government spending. An economy addicted to easy money can’t function for very long without the easy money drug.

And do you know what central banks do when the economy gets shaky?

They cut interest rates.

In my view, the most likely scenario is a hike with a pretty quick pivot back to rate cuts.

But even if they don't hike, rates are still too high given the level of debt and the economy's need for the easy money drug. We're still on the path to an economic reckoning, and the money printing will continue.

In other words, all roads lead to more inflation.

That’s why my head spins every time I see a big gold and silver selloff after any news that supports the rate hike narrative.

I interviewed economist Daniel Lacalle yesterday, and he summed it up perfectly.

"If you sell silver and gold because there is a rate hike, then it's because you don't understand money."

He went on to point out that if the Fed does hike next week, it’s telling you something.

“A rate hike is the evidence that the solvency of governments is being less and less credible. It's also the evidence of persistent inflation. Persistent inflation means that the government is spending way too much, way more than what the private sector demands, and that it's generating more units of currency.”

Gold and silver are indeed non-yielding assets. But that doesn’t make them inferior to a government bond.

“To think that it is better to buy the bond of an insolvent nation that gives you 5 percent relative to something that has proven to be a reserve of value, a unit of measure, and generalized method of payment, i.e., real money as gold is… In reality, what you should see is that if rate hikes are coming, it's basically because the government is not going to give you real economic returns on it on their debt.”

So, the Fed will hike next week. Or it won’t. But no matter what it does, it can’t change the overall trajectory of the economy. It can’t erase $40 trillion in debt. It can’t make the world fall in love with the dollar again. It won’t change its planned policy of 2 percent annual currency debasement. Don’t get too caught up in this single Fed meeting. Keep your eye on the big picture.

Spain Ponders Whether It Should Get Its Gold Out of the U.S.

Fri, 11 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

With many countries bringing their gold home, what will Spain do?

Some are calling for the Spanish central bank to follow the lead of the Netherlands and France and repatriate its gold.

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/03/the-netherlands-moves-gold-out-of-north-america-citing-geopolitical-risk-005181";>The Netherlands recently moved 86 tonnes of gold from North America closer to home in London, citing “increasing geopolitical unrest” and a desire to “strengthen crisis preparedness.”

Meanwhile, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/07/french-central-bank-sells-new-york-gold-replaces-it-with-gold-stored-in-paris-004819";>France completed a gold repatriation project earlier this year. The Banque de France (BdF) unloaded “non-standard” gold bars of varying purity and size that were stored in New York. The central bank used the proceeds to purchase new gold bars that meet international reserve standards for weight, purity, and certification.

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The Bank of Spain holds roughly 289 tonnes of gold. It is the sixth-largest gold reserve among EU countries.

The Spanish central bank refused to disclose how much gold it holds in New York or comment on plans to move it, citing confidentiality.

https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2026-09-08/spain-faces-dilemma-of-what-to-do-with-its-gold-deposited-at-the-us-federal-reserve.html"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sources speaking to El País on the condition of anonymity said most of Spain’s gold is held within Spanish borders and the amount stored in the U.S. is likely small.

Nevertheless, a growing chorus of voices is pushing for repatriation.

Instituto de Estudios Bursátiles (IEB) professor Luis Garvía told El País that bringing the gold home shouldn’t be viewed as a “nationalist” policy.

“Bringing the gold to Spain would not be a sovereigntist gesture; it would be part of the European Union’s strategic autonomy framework.”

As El País notes, the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/could-weaponization-of-the-dollar-as-a-foreign-policy-billy-club-accelerate-de-dollarization-003013";>weaponization of the dollar and growing worries that gold could be confiscated have fueled the repatriation movement.

“The main reason is not only the distrust aroused by U.S. President Donald Trump. In 2022, the freezing of Russian assets abroad as part of the sanctions program over the invasion of Ukraine set off alarm bells in nonaligned countries.”

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https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/05/31/india-brings-100-tons-of-gold-home-for-safe-keeping-003225";>India is another country aggressively repatriating its gold. In the spring of 2024, the Reserve Bank of India brought 100 tonnes of gold home, repatriating it from vaults in the UK. Over the last six months, the Indian central bank has repatriated another 104 tonnes. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/gold-storage-repatriation-from-england-give-our-bullion-back-india-wants-its-gold-under-own-lock-and-key/articleshow/130674895.cms";>According to the Economic Times of India, this weaponization of the dollar by the U.S. was one of the key factors, specifically aggressive sanctions levied on Russia after it invaded Ukraine and the freezing of Afghanistan’s reserves by Western powers.

“Those episodes, involving G7 countries restricting access to sovereign assets, have reshaped how central banks think about custody.”

The Netherlands moved some of its gold to London, but as El País reported, that might not be a safe option either. The report pointed out that Venezuela tried to bring home its gold stored in London; however, the UK refused to release the metal, saying it does not recognize Caracas’s monetary authority.

“London is one of the world’s largest gold trading centers, which gives reserves a great deal of liquidity. But in times of rising authoritarianism, that immediacy is no longer so attractive.”

Spain isn’t the only country wrestling with the question of gold storage.

There have also been calls for https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/01/25/german-officials-renew-calls-to-bring-gold-home-004637";>gold repatriation from German politicians spanning the political spectrum. The Bundesbank brought half of its gold home in 2013, moving 674 tonnes of gold from Paris and New York back to Germany. However, the Bundesbank still stores about one-third of its gold in New York vaults.

Earlier this year, Emanuel Mönch, a leading German economist and former Bundesbank head of research, said it’s “too risky” to keep gold reserves in New York.

“Given the current geopolitical situation, it seems risky to store so much gold in the U.S. In the interest of greater strategic independence from the U.S., the Bundesbank would therefore be well-advised to consider repatriating the gold.”

There have also been loud voices calling for Italian gold repatriation.

According to https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/2023-central-bank-gold-reserves-survey";>a World Gold Council survey in 2023, a “substantial share” of central banks expressed concern about potential sanctions after the U.S. and other Western countries froze almost half of Russia’s $650 billion gold and forex reserves in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine. According to the WGC, 68 percent of the banks surveyed said they plan to keep their gold reserves within their country’s borders. This was up from 50 percent in 2020.

One anonymously quoted central bank official told Reuters, “We did have it [gold] held in London… but now we’ve transferred it back to our country to hold as a safe haven asset and to keep it safe.”

This gold repatriation trend underscores the importance of holding physical gold free from https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/buy-gold-and-silver-to-hedge-against-counterparty-risk-003015";>counterparty risk.

ETF Gold Holdings Surged to Record High in August

Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Gold flowed into ETFs from every region last month, pushing global holdings to a record high.

ETFs globally added 121 net tonnes of gold to their holdings in August. That pushed total ETF gold reserves to 4,189 tonnes.

Putting that into perspective, ETFs globally held 3,915 tonnes of gold at the height of the COVID bull market.

Total assets under management (AUM) by gold-backed funds rose 16 percent month-on-month to $615 billion in August.

Year-to-date, ETFs have added a net 160 tonnes of gold to their collective holdings valued at $29 billion.

For the second-straight month, European ETFs led the way, adding 54.2 tonnes of gold to their holdings, valued at $7.9 billion. It was the strongest month for European gold ETFs on record.

Like in the U.S., European investors are becoming increasingly worried about government debt loads. According to the World Gold Council, “Against this backdrop, gold's role as a portfolio diversifier and an alternative to sovereign debt likely remained an important driver of demand.”

Funds listed in the UK were the largest contributors to European gold inflows, recording the second-largest month of gold accumulation on record. Meanwhile, French funds added $1.5 billion in August, the strongest month on record. According to the World Gold Council, this “further underscores the breadth of investor demand across the region.”

North American gold-backed funds added 53.3 tonnes of gold to their holdings, valued at $7.7 billion. It was the region’s third-largest monthly inflow on record.

The month started slowly and then accelerated during the week of August 17. According to the World Gold Council, North American funds added more than half of the month’s total gold inflow in just five days.

The spike in gold flows occurred around the same time the U.S. Treasury Department announced plans to double its https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/10/treasury-department-announces-even-bigger-bond-buyback-market-shrugs-005192";>buyback of long-term bonds, an effort widely viewed as an attempt to control borrowing costs. The World Gold Council said this intervention “heightened concerns around fiscal sustainability and dominance, while reviving fears of potential dollar debasement.”

Asian funds charted their strongest month since February, adding 13.3 tonnes of gold valued at $2 billion.

China dominated inflows, thanks to a rebounding gold price that attracted investor interest. According to the World Gold Council, “Continued declines in local government bond yields and a range-bound equity market likely provided additional support.”

Indian and Japanese funds also reported modest gold inflows.

Funds listed in other regions, including Australia and Africa, added 0.4 tonnes of gold in August. The bulk of regional demand was centered in Australia, with $190 million in gold inflows.

ETFs are a convenient way for investors to play the gold market, but https://youtu.be/7aP6VbgXVeM?si=O3yPeFkTYFHOXrHe"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">owning ETF shares is not the same as holding physical gold.

ETFs are relatively liquid. You can buy or sell an ETF with a couple of mouse clicks. You don’t have to worry about transporting or storing metal. In a nutshell, they let investors play the gold market without buying full ounces of metal at the spot price.

Since you are just buying a number on a screen, you can easily trade your ETF shares for another stock or cash whenever you want, even multiple times on the same day. Many speculative investors take advantage of this liquidity.

But while a gold ETF is a convenient way to play gold's price, you don’t possess any gold. You have paper. And you don’t know for sure that the fund has all the gold either, especially when it sees inflows. In such a scenario, there have been difficulties or delays in obtaining physical metal.

Trading Volumes

Gold market activity rebounded in August, with average daily trading volumes rising 21 percent month-on-month to $430 billion per day across all major market segments.

Over-the-counter (OTC) trading volumes rose 10 percent on the month to $226 billion per day. LBMA activity supported OTC trading, with an 11 percent month-on-month increase to $199 billion per day. This is well above the 2025 average.

Total COMEX longs rose sharply by 39 percent to 753 tonnes.

Managed money continued rebuilding its position, with net longs increasing by 96 tonnes. This pushed managed money net longs to 470 tonnes, surpassing its earlier year-to-date peak of 443 tonnes.

Treasury Department Announces Even Bigger Bond Buyback; Market Shrugs

Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again.

That seems to be the mantra over at the U.S. Treasury Department.

On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the department plans to triple its long-term bond buyback program to $6 billion during its operation on Thursday.

Last month, Bessent signaled that the Treasury would increase its bond market intervention. Initially, he said the plan was to “at least” double operations from $2 billion to $4 billion beginning in September. Yields initially fell but quickly recovered.

Not content to be outdone by the markets, Bessent doubled down again, raising the September 10 buyback operation to $6 billion.

I doubt this is what he had in mind.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/10-year-treasury-sept1026.png"; width="700" height="438" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

By Thursday morning, the yield on the 10-year Treasury had spiked to over 4.9 percent, a level not seen since June 2007.

Meanwhile, the 30-year yield spiked to 5.341. You have to go back to June 2004 to find a yield that high.

Subsequently, mortgage rates also spiked, climbing to the highest level since July 2025.

Mechanics and Optics of the Treasury Buyback

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In practice, the Treasury will purchase older long-term bonds on the open market and retire them. This increased demand will raise prices and lower yields. This benefits the federal government by lowering interest rates on newly issued debt on the long end of the curve.

The Treasury will fund the buybacks by selling shorter-term notes and bonds. In practice, the Treasury borrows money to buy debt from people who already lent it money so it can borrow more money from other people at a slightly lower interest rate.

This is imperative given that the federal government already https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/13/trump-administration-runs-largest-monthly-budget-deficit-in-five-years-005135";>shells out over $1 trillion annually in interest expense.

In the big scheme of things, this isn’t a big operation. Six billion dollars is a drop in the bucket in a $32 trillion bond market. Treasury describes the operation as a “liquidity intervention” to maintain “market plumbing.” However, we don’t have a “plumbing” problem, and the Treasury Department intervention doesn’t solve the fundamental issue.

But while the operation's extent isn’t materially significant, the message Bessent sent with the move is.

And what is that message?

Desperation.

The Treasury Department is worried about the state of the bond market and its ability to continue funding the federal government's borrow-and-spend binge.

That's because demand for U.S. debt has tanked, and investors are demanding higher long-term yields due to ever-increasing federal deficits and inflation expectations.

After Bessent initially announced the increased buyback operation, Standard Chartered global head of research Eric Robertsen summed up the Treasury Department's message to the markets.

"The only conclusion we can draw is ‌that yields reached a level that they don't like, and I think that suggests a willingness to try and control or intervene against natural supply and demand."

PGIM Credit chief investment strategist, Robert Tipp, told CNBC the markets seemed disappointed that the Treasury didn’t make an even bigger move.

“At the end of the day, the Treasury is issuing a spectacular amount of securities, and they’re trying to control the price level at the back end of the curve with really what, in the big scheme of things, is not necessarily a major operation. When they came out and said we would be buying at least 4 billion, I think market expectations were kind of thinking six to 10, and they’ve come in at the bottom end of the market’s expectations. As a result, you’re seeing a negative reaction here in the market with the sell-off at the back end of the curve.”

Stanley Druckenmiller said Bessent is setting his feet on a slippery slope. Now that he’s intervened, it may well require increasingly larger buybacks just to keep a lid on the market.

“Once markets believe Treasury is defending a price, every rise in yields becomes a test of official resolve, and the operations must grow to survive the tests. Governments defending prices against fundamentals always lose. The only variable is how much they spend before conceding.”

Bessent defended his plans to “make the bond market move” during a speech earlier this week. According to the New York Times, he argued that markets were “misreading the fundamental dynamics of the U.S. economy,” noting that American bonds had outperformed the bond markets of many other countries. He emphasized that his job was to ensure markets were "not misreading the fundamental dynamics of the economy."

“Now I try to slow things down, to get people to get out of their fever dream and look at the facts.”

However, the facts (https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/the-40-trillion-national-debt-in-perspective-005151";>about $40 trillion of them) are exactly why people are turning their noses up at U.S. debt. They don't trust the U.S. will ever get a handle on its fiscal malfeasance. So, why should the world lend Uncle Sam any more money?

On top of that, they've watched America https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/could-weaponization-of-the-dollar-as-a-foreign-policy-billy-club-accelerate-de-dollarization-003013";>weaponize its currency. Many countries worry that the U.S. government could use its dollar assets as leverage. If you want to avoid getting the dollar carpet pulled out from under you, get the carpet out of the living room.

Impact on Precious Metals

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The Treasury Department's willingness to intentionally step in to suppress yields is bullish for gold and silver.

Since gold is a non-yielding asset, conventional wisdom holds that a higher rate environment is bearish for the yellow metal. Conversely, lower rates tend to create headwinds for gold.

The gold market reacted as one might expect. Gold soared on the news, https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>pushing back above $4,400 an ounce on Wednesday.

Silver also charted a strong gain, rising above $67 an ounce.

Right now, the optics of this operation matter more than the scope. If markets take the Treasury at face value and interpret this as a plumbing fix, it's unlikely to have significant impacts. However, if markets read between the lines and recognize it as transparent rate manipulation to control federal government buying costs, we could see a more significant pivot toward precious metals.

Debasement Trade Gains Ground as Nations Reassess Dollars, Bonds, and Gold

Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

In this week’s Money Metals Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey examined what he calls the debasement trade. It is the growing preference for tangible assets such as gold and silver as protection against the declining purchasing power of fiat currencies.

Maharrey framed the trend as a matter of trust. If people no longer trust the institutions managing their money, he argued, they will naturally seek assets that are not created or controlled by those institutions. Gold and silver have historically filled that role because they are not issued by governments and https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/05/brien-lundin-debt-debasement-and-why-golds-bull-market-has-support-005186";>carry no direct currency-debasement risk.

The underlying question, according to Maharrey, is not whether governments will continue to borrow and spend, but how long markets will tolerate the consequences.

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A Gold Bull Market With No Clear Off-Ramp

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Maharrey said he is generally reluctant to put a timetable on major market events. Fiscal and monetary problems often take longer to manifest than people expect, even when the broad direction is clear.

Still, he highlighted comments from John LaForge, chief alternative investment strategist at Ned Davis Research, who linked https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/01/a-forever-gold-bull-market-005174";>the outlook for gold to governments’ willingness, or unwillingness, to confront their debt burdens.

LaForge said gold prices could continue rising until policymakers learn how to address the debt problem. As long as governments continue piling up debt rather than paying it down, he argued, higher gold prices remain possible.

Maharrey’s interpretation was straightforward. The debt trend is a https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/03/the-feds-no-exit-ramp-debt-dollar-debasement-and-the-case-for-gold-005179";>powerful long-term tailwind for gold. With U.S. national debt near $40 trillion and politicians facing incentives to avoid painful fiscal reforms, he argued that the political system is more likely to keep postponing the problem than resolve it.

That does not mean every move in gold will be higher. Maharrey acknowledged that precious metals can be volatile and can experience sharp corrections. But he maintained that continued currency depreciation and unresolved debt problems create a long-term backdrop favorable to gold and silver.

Norway’s $80 Billion Treasury Signal

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One recent development cited in the episode came from Norges Bank Investment Management, which manages Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest. The fund oversees roughly $2.3 trillion in assets accumulated from Norway’s oil and gas wealth.

The fund has proposed reducing government bonds from 70% to 50% of its broader bond benchmark. Maharrey said that, in practical terms, the move could require the fund to shed approximately https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/08/worlds-largest-sovereign-wealth-fund-to-cut-us-treasury-holdings-005188";>$80 billion in U.S. Treasury holdings, along with around $20 billion in Japanese government bonds and a reduction in euro-area government debt.

The shift is intended to preserve sufficient liquidity for periods of market stress. The transactions are not expected immediately. Maharrey noted reports suggesting they may not occur until early 2027. Nevertheless, he described the announcement as an important signal from a major global investor that government bonds are no longer being treated as unquestioned safe havens.

He also cautioned against interpreting the decision as evidence of an imminent dollar collapse. Citing Vantage Point Asset Management CIO Nick Ferres, Maharrey noted that unsustainable debt and deficits are widespread across advanced economies, but a shift by Norway’s fund does not necessarily mean a financial crisis is arriving tomorrow.

Bond Bear Market Pressures Build

Maharrey argued that Norway’s decision fits into a broader shift in the bond market. For decades, U.S. Treasury debt served as a primary safe asset for governments, banks, and institutional investors. But persistent deficits, inflation concerns, rising borrowing needs, and policy uncertainty have put pressure on that role.

He pointed to the 10-year Treasury yield, which rose from roughly 1.5% in late 2021 to nearly 5% in fall 2023. Despite Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical events that traditionally might have pushed investors toward Treasuries, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/31/fed-chair-warsh-runs-open-mouth-operations-at-jackson-hole-but-can-he-deliver-005173";>yields have remained elevated.

Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. When investors demand less government debt, bond prices fall, and yields rise. Higher yields, in turn, increase the government’s borrowing costs.

Maharrey said this creates a feedback loop for Washington. The government must borrow heavily to fund deficits, yet higher interest rates make servicing existing debt more expensive, requiring still more borrowing.

Through the first 10 months of fiscal 2026, he said, U.S. interest expense reached $1.17 trillion, up 15.5% from the same period in fiscal 2025. That followed a 7.3% increase in fiscal 2025 interest costs compared with 2024.

He also discussed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s long-end bond buyback effort, intended to support 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year bonds and ease upward pressure on yields. Maharrey argued that the market response was short-lived and that the move may have instead highlighted official concern about the bond market.

Dollar Weaponization and Foreign Demand

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Debt is not the only reason overseas institutions are reassessing their exposure to dollars and Treasuries. Maharrey said the United States and its allies freezing Russian dollar-denominated assets after Russia invaded Ukraine accelerated concerns about the weaponization of reserve currencies.

He did not debate the policy merits of sanctions. Instead, he focused on their consequences for countries holding reserves abroad. Governments that see the dollar used as a tool of economic pressure may decide to diversify away from dollar assets, he said.

Maharrey cited China as an example. According to figures mentioned in the episode, China had reduced its Treasury holdings to $652.3 billion, its lowest level since September 2008.

This does not mean the dollar will lose its reserve-currency role overnight. But Maharrey argued that diversification away from Treasuries, increased central-bank gold buying, and more interest in alternative reserve assets all point in the same direction. That is a gradual reduction in reliance on U.S. debt.

Netherlands Moves 86 Tonnes of Gold

The episode also examined the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/03/the-netherlands-moves-gold-out-of-north-america-citing-geopolitical-risk-005181";>Netherlands’ recent gold relocation. De Nederlandsche Bank, or DNB, moved approximately 86 metric tonnes of gold from North America to London between March and August 2026, citing rising geopolitical unrest and a desire to strengthen crisis preparedness.

The move was not a simple shipment of all the metal. DNB sold about 59 tonnes of gold stored in New York and used the proceeds to purchase replacement bullion in London. More than 27 tonnes were physically transferred from the United States and Canada to Zeist in the Netherlands, while a similar quantity was moved from Zeist to London.

DNB said the relocation improved the tradability and accessibility of its reserves. After the change, London held 32.1% of Dutch gold reserves, while both New York and Ottawa held 18.5%. The https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/03/central-banks-piled-in-more-gold-in-july-005182";>central bank’s total gold holdings remained unchanged at 612.4 tonnes.

Maharrey emphasized the role of counterparty risk. Gold itself does not depend on another party’s promise to pay, but gold stored abroad can still create custody and access risks. In a crisis, the location, form, and market acceptability of bullion can matter.

London’s role as a major physical gold-trading center was central to DNB’s decision. Gold stored at the Bank of England meets modern international trading standards and can be accessed or traded more readily in a crisis than some older bars held elsewhere.

Gold Repatriation Is a Wider Trend

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The Netherlands is not alone. Maharrey noted that France recently replaced non-standard gold bars previously held in New York with new bars meeting international reserve standards, with the upgraded bullion retained in France.

Germany repatriated 674 tonnes of gold from Paris and New York beginning in 2013, though the Bundesbank still stores roughly one-third of its reserves in New York. Calls for further repatriation have continued in Germany amid concerns about geopolitical risk and strategic independence.

India has also been actively bringing gold home. Maharrey said the Reserve Bank of India repatriated 100 tonnes from the United Kingdom in spring 2024, followed by another 104 tonnes. India now reportedly holds about 680 tonnes of its 880-tonne gold reserve, or roughly 77%, within its own borders.

The broader trend is https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/06/25/more-countries-bringing-their-gold-home-for-safe-keeping-005009";>reflected in central-bank vaulting preferences. Maharrey cited World Gold Council survey data showing that 57% of surveyed central banks held some gold in the United Kingdom, down from 64% a year earlier. Domestic vaulting was preferred by 49%, while the share holding at least some gold in New York fell from 17% to 14%.

Preparing for a Long-Term Currency Trend

Maharrey’s central conclusion was that https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/27/gold-and-silver-surge-as-the-debasement-trade-returns-005164";>the debasement trade is driven by long-term fiscal and monetary incentives, not a single administration or a short-lived political cycle.

He argued that governments have committed themselves to inflation targets that steadily erode purchasing power, and that actual inflation may exceed those targets when deficits and debt-service costs become harder to manage.

For investors and savers, Maharrey said the challenge is preparation rather than market timing. Waiting until a financial crisis is obvious, he argued, is like buying fire insurance after a house has already caught fire.

The episode closed with Maharrey’s view that gold and silver can help investors diversify away from fiat-currency risk. He encouraged listeners to research precious-metals options through MoneyMetals.com or by speaking with a Money Metals specialist at 1-800-800-1865.

Gold or Dollars? It's a Question of Trust!

Wed, 09 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

The debasement trade continues to gain momentum with more countries and investors spurning dollars for gold.

It's a question of trust.

Do you trust dollars, or gold?

As host Mike Maharrey explains, more people are losing faith in fiat dollars, and they're turning to the yellow metal as a safe haven for their wealth. In this episode of the Midweek Memo podcast, Mike highlights two stories that broke last week, illustrating the whats and whys behind the debasement trade.

First, he covers the world's largest sovereign wealth fund announcing a reduction in Treasury holdings. He follows that up by highlighting another example of gold repatriation.

Along the way, he makes the case for a "forever" gold bull market.

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Mike opens the show with a hypothetical scenario.

"So, you’re chatting with a trusted friend, and he tells you about how he discovered his accountant was cheating him and embezzling funds. And oh, by the way, he’s your accountant too.

"So, how long would it be before you fired him?

"Probably about as long as it took to dial the number, right? If you can’t trust somebody, you are not going to keep them in a position where they can harm you. A cheating accountant is bad, but not so bad for you if he’s not YOUR accountant.

"This very phenomenon explains the debasement trade."

What exactly is the debasement trade?

"Simply put, it’s an investment strategy emphasizing holding tangible assets such as gold, silver, and other commodities to protect against the decline of fiat currencies caused by monetary debasement. In other words, getting rid of dollars because you don’t trust the government issuing those dollars and stacking gold and silver because nobody issues or controls it, and you know it will always hedge against fiat currency debasement."

Mike notes that people sometimes ask him how long he thinks the gold bull market will continue.

"If you know me, you know I’m not one to try to time things. I recognize trends, and I feel like I have a good grasp on where we’re going, but I always admit it’s not clear exactly how or when we’ll get there. But I ran across a forecast the other day that I have to admit makes sense."

He quotes an analyst who argues the gold bull market will continue until "we learn how to deal with the debt situation."

"So, Forever. Given that nobody is willing to do what it takes to 'deal with the debt situation,' gold prices will ostensibly go up forever, or until the fiat system finally implodes."

Mike explains that there is no viable off-ramp, and this is the root of the debasement trade.

"Remember – there’s a growing lack of trust. People don’t trust the U.S. to handle its fiscal problems, so they’re trying to figure out how to be clear of the mess when the house of cards falls down. One of the things they’re doing is limiting their exposure to U.S. debt. In other words, they’re increasingly saying, 'Yeah. We’re not loaning your drunk uncle any more money.'"

As an example, Mike points out that the World's largest sovereign wealth fund recently announced plans to lower its exposure to government bonds. In practice, this means it will divest a large amount of U.S. Treasuries.

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Mike called the move "yet another body blow" to the struggling bond market, noting that many analysts believe we are in https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/18/the-ramifications-of-a-long-term-bond-bear-market-005079";>the early stages of a long-term secular bear market in bonds.

Mike sets the Norwegian wealth fund's move in a broader context.

"For decades, governments and central banks have held U.S. government debt as a “safe” asset. That is starting to shift because many governments no longer view U.S. debt as 'safe.' They are concerned about the U.S.’s fiscal position, with https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/16/us-government-runs-another-big-deficit-in-june-as-interest-expense-climbs-005073";>constant deficit spending piling onto nearly $40 trillion in debt, along with the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/could-weaponization-of-the-dollar-as-a-foreign-policy-billy-club-accelerate-de-dollarization-003013";>weaponization of the dollar. Notably, de-dollarization went into overdrive after the U.S. and its Western allies froze Russia's dollar-denominated assets after the invasion of Ukraine."

Mike points out that this has significant ramifications, and the U.S. government is signaling that it's a big problem. Mike specifically notes https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/us-treasury-intervenes-in-bond-market-to-drive-yields-lower-005150";>the Treasury Department's recent bond buyback announcement, characterizing it as a sign of "desperation" as the federal government wrestles with the growing burden of interest expense on the $40 trillion debt.

After pointing out special pricing on Australian gold Kangaroo coins at Money Metals, Mike highlights a second aspect of the debasement trade - gold repatriation.

"So, not only are a lot of countries shedding dollars and adding gold – they are bringing their gold home. The Netherlands moved approximately 86 tonnes of gold valued at over €10 billion from North America to London, citing 'increasing geopolitical unrest' and a desire to 'strengthen crisis preparedness.'"

Mike notes that, based on the DNB’s statement, worries about access to its gold were a primary reason for the move. He also points out that even countries with historically friendly relations, like the Netherlands, are beginning to judge the U.S. as a political risk. He cites France and India as two other countries aggressively repatriating gold, while people across the political spectrum in countries including Germany and Italy are pushing to return their gold to their own countries.

Mike wraps up the show by pointing out that the reasons many countries are spurning dollars for gold are also valid to individual investors. He urges listeners to call 800-800-1865 and talk with a precious metals specialist today.

Articles Mentioned in the Show

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/01/a-forever-gold-bull-market-005174";>A Forever Gold Bull Market?

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/03/central-banks-piled-in-more-gold-in-july-005182";>Central Banks Piled in More Gold in July

Gold and Silver Take a Hit — Then Fight Back

Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Gold and silver investors got another reminder over the past few days that bull markets rarely move straight up.

After a strong run for several weeks, both metals were hit with a sharp selloff Friday. Gold https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>dropped more than 2% at one point, while silver also came under heavy selling pressure.

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But the more interesting story may be what happened next.

Buyers quickly emerged as prices fell. Gold bounced well off its lows, while silver also https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>recovered and has continued to hold up relatively well. As trading gets underway this week, neither metal looks as though Friday's selloff did serious damage to the broader advance.

Gold is currently trading around the $4,400 level after recently challenging $4,500. That's still an extraordinary price by historical standards — and not far removed from the record territory gold has been exploring this year.

Silver's performance may be even more noteworthy.

The white metal bottomed at $54 this summer and is now trading in the mid-$60s.

The next hurdle appears to be around $67.50. If silver can decisively push through that area, it's likely to move higher and begin outperforming gold again.

Friday's selloff was triggered by a stronger-than-expected employment report. Traders immediately concluded that the Federal Reserve may be more inclined to raise interest rates, and gold and silver were sold aggressively.

But markets often overreact to the latest headline.

What matters now is whether Friday marked the beginning of a larger retreat or simply shook some speculative money out of a market that had moved a long way in a relatively short period.

So far, the evidence points more toward the latter.

Gold has found buyers around the $4,400 area, while silver continues to display impressive resilience. Neither metal has given back anything close to the gains accumulated during the broader advance.

It's also worth remembering just how much the precious metals landscape has changed.

Gold above $4,000 is no longer shocking. Silver above $60 is no longer shocking. Price levels that would have seemed almost unimaginable a couple of years ago are now where buyers and sellers battle over relatively ordinary daily moves.

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That tells us something important.

Investors around the world are continuing to rethink how much confidence they want to place in paper currencies, government debt, and the financial system more broadly. Central banks have been accumulating enormous quantities of gold. Investment demand for physical metals remains strong. And silver faces the added pressure of heavy industrial consumption alongside growing investor interest.

Those forces don't disappear because gold falls $100 in a morning.

In fact, sharp corrections are normal — and arguably healthy — https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/05/brien-lundin-debt-debasement-and-why-golds-bull-market-has-support-005186";>during powerful bull markets. They discourage excessive speculation and give longer-term buyers opportunities to enter at lower prices.

That doesn't mean investors should expect an immediate return to record highs. Gold and silver could spend some time consolidating after their recent gains.

But after Friday's gut check, the bulls are still standing.

Gold is holding near $4,400. Silver remains in the mid-$60s. And if buyers continue showing up on weakness, the next question may soon shift from how far the metals could fall to when they will make another run at their recent highs.

World's Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund to Cut U.S. Treasury Holdings

Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

The bloodbath in the bond market keeps picking up speed along with https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/28/with-bonds-struggling-investors-turning-to-tangible-assets-like-gold-005096";>the debasement trade.

Last week, the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund announced a plan to slash its government bond holdings by about 20 percent.

"We recommend that the government subindex of the bond index be reduced from 70 percent to 50 percent," Norges Bank governor Ida Wolden Bache and Norges Bank IM CEO Nicolai Tangen wrote in a letter.

"A government share of 50 percent will be ‌sufficient to ⁠cover the liquidity needs, including in periods of turbulence in financial markets."

Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) was founded in the early 1990s to invest Norway’s oil and gas wealth. It holds about $2.3 trillion in its portfolio.

U.S. Treasuries make up the bulk of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund bond holdings. According to Reuters, the fund will need to shed about $80 billion in Treasury holdings to accomplish its goal.

The fund will also reportedly divest around $20 billion in Japanese bonds and decrease holdings of euro-area bonds as well.

The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund did not announce a timeline for the move, but The Business Standard reported the transactions won’t likely occur until early 2027.

The announcement was yet another body blow to the struggling bond market. Many analysts believe we are in https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/18/the-ramifications-of-a-long-term-bond-bear-market-005079";>the early stages of a long-term secular bear market in bonds.

Over the last couple of years, long-term bond yields have faced persistent upward pressure. The 10-year Treasury spiked in 2022, rising from around 1.5 percent in late 2021 to a high of nearly 5 percent in the fall of 2023. Since then, yields have remained at those elevated levels despite the Fed cutting rates and geopolitical events that would have historically created significant safe-haven demand for Treasuries.

Reuters recently reported that “inflation, heavy government borrowing, policy uncertainty and bouts of stocks and bonds falling in tandem have weakened bonds' role as a ballast, prompting some investors to look for more diversification.”

The NBIM’s announcement is part of a broader trend as more people lose faith in government finances.

For decades, governments and central banks have held U.S. government debt as a “safe” asset. That is starting to shift because many governments no longer view U.S. debt as “safe.” They are concerned about the U.S.’s fiscal position, with https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/16/us-government-runs-another-big-deficit-in-june-as-interest-expense-climbs-005073";>constant deficit spending piling onto nearly $40 trillion in debt, along with the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/could-weaponization-of-the-dollar-as-a-foreign-policy-billy-club-accelerate-de-dollarization-003013";>weaponization of the dollar. Notably, de-dollarization went into overdrive after the U.S. and its Western allies froze Russia's dollar-denominated assets after the invasion of Ukraine.

A Massif Capital note pointed out that many foreign government buyers have been slowly selling U.S. Treasuries over the last several years.

“Players like China are changing their approach and have been doing so for several years. China recently reduced its holdings to $652.3 billion, the lowest level since September 2008.”

Higher yields inherent in a bond bear market are already squeezing U.S. policymakers.

So far in fiscal 2026, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/13/trump-administration-runs-largest-monthly-budget-deficit-in-five-years-005135";>the U.S. Treasury has spent $1.17 trillion on interest expense. That was up 15.5 percent compared to the same period in fiscal ’25. Interest on the national debt cost $1.2 trillion in fiscal 2025. That was up 7.3 percent over 2024.

Simply put, the federal government can’t afford higher interest rates.

In an effort to stop the bleeding, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/us-treasury-intervenes-in-bond-market-to-drive-yields-lower-005150";>a bond buyback at the long end of the yield curve.

It worked.

For about one day.

Vantage Point Asset Management CIO Nick Ferres told the Financial Post that “Debt and deficits are unsustainable in most of the advanced economies.” However, he cautioned against reading too much into Norway’s recent announcement.

“At some point there will be a fiscal crisis; however, this development is not necessarily a signal of that today.”

Indians Ignore Government Pleas to Stop Buying Gold

Tue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Last spring, Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged Indians to put off buying gold for a year.

They apparently didn’t heed the advice.

The Titan Company reported a 63 percent profit increase in the second quarter and a notable increase in foot traffic. And according to the Financial Times, “jewelry accounts for the vast majority of the chain’s earnings.”

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Modi wants Indians to forgo gold to control the country’s trade deficit, which is putting pressure on the rupee.

Gold and silver make up around 11 percent of India’s total imports.

Meanwhile, oil accounts for around 22 percent of the nation's imports. The sudden spike in oil prices due to the U.S.-Iran war hit India particularly hard. The country imports nearly 85 percent of its fuel, and about 50 percent of its crude imports flow through the Strait of Hormuz.

With both gold and oil prices spiking, India’s import bill has exploded. The country’s merchandise trade deficit topped $330 billion in the financial year ending March 2026. That was up from over $280 billion a year ago, a 17.9 percent increase.

The trade situation has put significant downward pressure on the rupee.

To try to stem the flow of gold into the country, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/05/13/india-hikes-gold-and-silver-import-duties-to-support-rupee-004917";>the government hiked customs duties from 6 to 15 percent in May, along with Modi’s plea to stop buying gold.

Titan managing director Ajoy Chawla called the impact of those measures “not long-lasting.”

“Their love for the product and gold is there; that is not disappearing. They are looking at it as a store of asset value. Even for a person who is not necessarily planning to sell their jewelry ever, they look at it as a portfolio.”

The data bears Chawla out.

After two straight weak months, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/india-gold-market-showing-signs-of-recovery-005152";>gold imports doubled in July, rising from 20 tonnes in June to an estimated 40-45 tonnes, signaling stronger demand.

The World Gold Council (WGC) reported improving Indian jewelry demand in July.

“Industry feedback suggests that deferred purchases returned to the market, resulting in higher footfall and a recovery in demand beyond essential wedding-related purchases. Manufacturers have reportedly begun receiving higher order flows, and inventory replenishment by jewelers has picked up ahead of the festive season, suggesting growing confidence in seasonal demand.”

Indian jewelry sales jumped by about one-third year-on-year to $21 billion in Q2, according to WGC data. Indian jewelry merchants reported strong quarterly earnings, with revenue growth from 30 to 60 percent year-on-year. Religious festivals and the summer wedding season supported gold jewelry sales in the second quarter.

Meanwhile, Modi reiterated his appeal last week, asking Indians to avoid buying gold “if not necessary.”

Apparently, a lot of Indians find it necessary.

In fact, Indians love gold for both cultural and economic reasons.

The yellow metal is deeply interwoven into India’s marriage ceremonies, along with its religious and cultural rituals. Festival seasons typically boost gold demand.

Indians also value the yellow metal as a store of wealth, especially in poorer rural regions. Around two-thirds of India’s gold demand originates outside urban centers, where many people operate outside the tax system. A lot of Indians use gold jewelry not only as an adornment but as a way to preserve wealth.

In the West, gold is generally viewed as a luxury item.

Not in India. Even poor Indians buy gold.

According to a 2018 ICE360 survey, one in every two households in India had purchased gold within the last five years. Overall, 87 percent of Indian households own some gold. Even households at the lowest income levels in India hold some of the yellow metal. According to the survey, more than 75 percent of families in the bottom 10 percent of income managed to buy some gold.

Given the Indian love affair with gold, it’s not surprising that Modi’s pleas fell on deaf ears.

Last May, Metals Focus predicted the higher tax, and government begging would only have a limited impact on the Indian gold market.

That’s because Indian gold and silver demand historically remained resilient, even in a higher-tax environment.

According to Metals Focus analysts, “Consumers often delay purchases initially following sharp price increases but typically adjust to higher price levels over time. In addition, elevated duties could encourage a recovery in unofficial flows, which had collapsed following the 2024 duty reduction.”

In fact, as the rupee depreciates, gold will likely become increasingly attractive.

Brien Lundin: Debt, Debasement, and Why Gold’s Bull Market Has Support

Sat, 05 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

In a recent Money Metals Podcast interview, host Mike Maharrey spoke with https://www.google.com/search?q=Brien+F.+Lundin&;amp;biw=1728&bih=962&sca_esv=8366ebc584332cb8&sxsrf=APpeQnti_RQuwPms3f2Zs4MnGn5LQcNSIA%3A1788545677840&ei=jQqbavzpMvfKp84P9_O24QU&ved=2ahUKEwi85Kruw9WWAxV35ckDHfe5LVwQ4dUDegQIBhAM&uact=5&oq=Brien+F.+Lundin&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiD0JyaWVuIEYuIEx1bmRpbjIFECEYoAEyBRAhGKABMgUQIRigAUjgN1DZBVjqJnABeACQAQCYAYABoAGsBaoBAzQuM7gBA8gBAPgBAZgCCKACyQXCAgsQABiABBiiBBiwA8ICCBAAGO8FGLADwgIFEAAY7wXCAggQABiABBiiBMICBBAAGB7CAggQABgIGAcYHsICBxAAGIAEGA3CAgYQABgeGA3CAggQABgFGB4YDZgDAIgGAZAGBZIHAzQuNKAH0xqyBwMzLjS4B8cFwgcFMS41LjLIBxCACAE&sclient=gws-wiz-serp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Brien Lundin, editor of The Gold Newsletter and CEO of the New Orleans Investment Conference, about the outlook for gold and silver amid swelling federal debt, rising Treasury yields, Federal Reserve policy, and what Lundin views as the return of the “debasement trade.”

Lundin said the central question is not whether officials can talk tough on inflation, but whether the math permits a sustained tightening campaign. With https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/the-40-trillion-national-debt-in-perspective-005151";>U.S. federal debt above $40 trillion and the debt trajectory steepening, he argued that the country cannot simply “grow its way out” of the problem.

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The Limits of Rate Hikes

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Maharrey asked why Lundin considers expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes under Chair Kevin Warsh to be misplaced. Lundin said Warsh may sincerely want to fight inflation, but that https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/40-trillion-debt-black-hole-is-a-financial-crisis-coming-005149";>the size of today’s debt burden severely limits the Fed’s options.

He contrasted the current situation with the late 1970s and early 1980s, when Paul Volcker could raise interest rates dramatically to combat inflation. At that time, Lundin said, federal debt stood near 35 percent of GDP. Today, he put the figure closer to 135 percent of GDP.

That difference changes everything. Higher rates increase the government’s debt-service burden, and Lundin said rate increases now have far greater leverage on an already heavily indebted economy. He believes Warsh may be able to https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/31/fed-chair-warsh-runs-open-mouth-operations-at-jackson-hole-but-can-he-deliver-005173";>deliver a symbolic quarter-point hike, but a sustained campaign of increases is effectively impossible.

Why Debt Points Toward Debasement

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Lundin rejected the suggestion that the United States can solve its debt problem through economic growth alone. He said only an extraordinary, unforeseeable leap in productivity—such as unlimited energy or interstellar travel—would make that plausible.

Absent that, Lundin argued that governments historically resort to debasing their underlying currencies https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/03/the-feds-no-exit-ramp-debt-dollar-debasement-and-the-case-for-gold-005179";>when debt becomes too large to manage through normal fiscal means. He said the “debasement trade,” a term popularized on Wall Street, is again https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/27/gold-and-silver-surge-as-the-debasement-trade-returns-005164";>becoming a major force in markets.

Maharrey agreed that the debt issue has been discussed for decades, including during the 1990s and the “Contract with America” era. But both men noted that debt has compounded dramatically since then, while policymakers have shown little willingness to impose the political pain necessary to reverse the trend.

Treasury Buybacks Sent a Message

The discussion also turned to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s decision https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/25/bessents-bond-market-intervention-juices-debasement-trade-boosts-gold-005161";>to increase long-end bond buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion. Lundin acknowledged that the increase was technically small in the context of a bond market worth more than $30 trillion.

Still, he said the market’s reaction was understandable. The move suggested that the Treasury was willing to influence yields at one end of the curve and could be prepared to intervene further if necessary.

Lundin argued that the effort was not technically yield-curve control, but it nevertheless revealed an inclination to manage yields. In his view, the Treasury’s attempt to project strength instead signaled weakness and desperation.

Gold reportedly jumped about $180 in response. Stocks, bonds, gold, and silver all initially rallied, but Lundin said equities faded as the day went on while gold and silver continued to advance.

Gold and Bonds Are Seeing the Same Danger

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One of Lundin’s most important observations was the positive correlation between gold and the 10-year Treasury yield since late June. Ordinarily, higher yields are often viewed as negative for non-yielding gold. But Lundin said today’s relationship is different.

He argued that yields are rising not because of strong economic growth or normal monetary tightening, but because investors are increasingly concerned about debt and deficits. Bond investors, often described as bond vigilantes, are demanding greater returns to hold sovereign debt while also turning to gold as a hedge.

Lundin said gold and bonds are among the most sensitive predictive mechanisms in financial markets. Their behavior, he argued, suggests markets may be anticipating a future crisis, even if no one can identify the precise trigger in advance.

Complacency and the Debt Endgame

Lundin cautioned against predicting the exact date of a financial breaking point. He said many respected analysts have warned of a debt crisis for 30 years or more, and the system has continued operating.

But he also stressed that complacency can be dangerous. Drawing on his experience near Lake Pontchartrain before Hurricane Katrina, Lundin recalled noticing inadequate efforts to reinforce levees only months before the storm devastated New Orleans.

For Lundin, the debt situation carries a similar lesson. A risk can remain ignored for years until an event exposes the vulnerability all at once. He believes the U.S. may be in the endgame of more than https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/24/its-real-and-you-need-to-be-ready-for-it-005159";>45 years of increasingly easy money and expanding debt, though he does not claim to know exactly how long that endgame will last.

Rising Yields Do Not Automatically Hurt Gold

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Maharrey asked Lundin about the conventional belief that higher interest rates and rising yields are always negative for gold. Lundin said that view is historically incomplete.

Some of gold’s strongest advances since the metal became investable after 1971—and especially after the United States permitted private gold ownership again in 1974—occurred during periods of rising rates and yields. During the 1970s, yields rose to fight inflation, but they did not keep up with inflation, allowing gold to rise.

Today, Lundin sees a different version of the same dynamic. Yields are rising because debt and deficits have become more ominous, not because the economy is necessarily strong. He added that this is a global phenomenon, with sovereign yields around the world moving sharply higher.

Lundin said he watches the price of gold more closely than the dollar index. In his view, all fiat currencies are competing against one another while depreciating over time, making gold a more meaningful measuring stick.

A Long-Term Tailwind for Gold and Silver

Lundin said he expects the macroeconomic trend to remain supportive of gold and silver until governments resolve their debt and fiat-currency problems. However, he cautioned that a bull market does not move in a straight line.

He said the first 18 months of the current metals bull market were unusually forgiving, with corrections largely playing out through sideways consolidation rather than steep price declines. As Western investors and algorithmic trading play a larger role, he expects more volatility and sharper headline-driven corrections.

For physical precious metals holders, Lundin said the larger question is whether they can afford not to own gold or silver when cash savings may lose purchasing power over time. For mining-stock investors, he emphasized the importance of buying dips during a bull market and taking some profits when markets become excessively frothy.

The Next Crisis May Come From the Unexpected

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Lundin said he believes gold and bonds may be “sniffing out” the next major financial crisis. He did not claim to know what will cause it, noting that the bubbles in markets are often obvious while the event that punctures them tends to arrive from an unexpected direction.

Maharrey pointed to 2018 and 2019, when market weakness, a late-2018 stock selloff, and repo-market strain preceded the COVID-era monetary response. Lundin noted that the Fed began a roughly $500 billion liquidity effort in late August and early September 2019, even as officials resisted calling it quantitative easing.

Both Maharrey and Lundin argued that the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/us-treasury-intervenes-in-bond-market-to-drive-yields-lower-005150";>Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is again expanding through bond purchases, regardless of the terminology officials use. Lundin said efforts to manage Treasury yields may provide temporary relief, but they do not eliminate the underlying debt problem.

New Orleans Investment Conference

Lundin also encouraged viewers to attend the New Orleans Investment Conference, which he said brings together roughly 40 speakers, mining companies, investors, and analysts during a metals and mining bull market.

The conference will take place over Halloween weekend in New Orleans and will include recorded presentations, panels, workshops, and a Metals and Mining Masquerade Ball. Lundin said the exhibit hall is sold out, hotel availability is tightening, and registrations are arriving at the fastest pace he has seen in decades.

For more information, Lundin directed viewers to GoldNewsletter.com and NewOrleansConference.com.