That cost structure favors health systems, such as that of Britain, that try to pay lower for services.  They can end up getting a relatively good deal from price discrimination.  After all, they can be served at low marginal cost, at least for those ttreatments.

Now imagine a biomedical future where many more treatments are based on the sequencing of your individual genome, and then the development of specific treatments personalized to you.  Obviously it will depend on developments, but very likely those remedies will have relatively high marginal costs.

In that setting the British approach to health care procurement and pricing will work less well.  It is the well-capitalized, “overspending” systems, such as the United States, that will have an easier time making the adjustment.

“The rising relative advantage of well-capitalized health care systems” is a neglected trend, because it makes a lot of earlier elite pronouncements about health care economics look a bit off.

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Workplace technological changes were instrumental in creating new tasks for women over the last century. This paper studies the adoption of the typewriter into US workplaces. Exploiting exogenous variation in typist demand across sectors, I document that the typewriter increased women’s labor force participation, leading to lower rates of marriage and fertility. These developments stemmed from a transition of White women from households into office work and an indirect crowding-in effect drawing Black women into household services. Acting as a “meeting technology,” the typewriter reshaped social interactions, enabling White women to marry above their socioeconomic backgrounds and achieve upward mobility.

That is from a recent paper by Myera Rashid.  Via Kris Gulati.

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2. Sumner on Greenspan, Giannis, and more.

3. 100 best books of the 21st century? (NYT).

4. AI and the crisis of classical liberalism.

5. The memory tax, good thing supply is elastic.

6. Is Teortaxes solving for the political equilibrium?

7. Frank Lloyd Wright house for sale in TN for $1.6 million.

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Hat tip: Kevin Bryan.

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“One stop shopping” for why AI will not put everyone out of work.

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Nonetheless massive restructuring will be needed to make all of these companies, no matter who owns them, “AI companies.”  That will require capital raises and pay scales that will be difficult for the public sector to pull off.  So right now renationalisation would be a mistake.

Most generally, I would say the returns to resource mobility will be rising significantly.

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Blackpool Central was the world’s busiest station in 1911.  It was the station with the most platforms to close in UK in the Beeching cuts of 1964.

That is from the recent fun book Lancashire: Exploring the Historic County that Made the Modern World, by Chris Moss.  And I enjoyed this paragraph:

I’ve never felt or fully understood the alleged tension between Lancashire and Yorkshire.  The latter’s residents have good reason to boast, as they do with gusto, even if the ‘God’s own count(r)y’ schtick is wearisome nonsense.  Yorkshire is the UK’s largest county.  It has three national parks, two national landscapes (the new name for AONBs) and some of the most dramatic stretches of thePennine range.  Like Lancashire, it reaches from the hills to the coast.  There are fundamental differences.  Lancashire is Irish and Atlantic.  East Yorkshire is European and North Sea-facing.  Yorkshire is Anglican and past tense.  Lancashire is Catholic and forward-looking.  Lancastrians go in sideways; Yorkshire men, at least, barge in frontally.

I consider this book to be properly subjective.

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2. Bronze Age markets.

3. How did Europe become the world champion of heat deaths?

4. New, The Journal of Economic Freedom.

5. Siena (Houston) fact of the day.

6. John Burn-Murdoch on economic growth (FT).  And a chart from the piece.

7. Economist David Holtz is now studying agents at OpenAI.

8. What Dean Ball wants to do.

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6. Learn what to look for in an art museum

I’m visiting the Detroit Institute of Arts. Which pictures in particular should I be looking for, and what is some useful context for viewing them?

Why was this chat valuable? “After two visits in three days, I would second the advice I got from this chat.”

Here is the link to the answer.  And know when to ask it to read the local newspapers for you, to learn about a place.

There are some good photos in the piece, including some hitherto unpublished photos of Spinoza.

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Joanne Paul is a historian at the University of Sussex, author, and a go-to Tudor expert on YouTube. She tells Tyler she’s drawn to the 16th century because it sits between the medieval and the modern, and because its paths not taken are a way of asking whether our own world had to turn out this way. Her biography Thomas More: A Life takes its subject in that spirit, refusing to reduce More to either martyr or monster.

Tyler and Joanne discuss how More influenced Erasmus, what to make of Utopia, why fear drove More’s persecution of heretics, how Holbein’s portraits of More and Cromwell differ, what movie depictions get wrong about More, how his execution was viewed at the time, how the Tudor period paved the way for Shakespeare and the scientific revolution, the surprising social mobility of the period, how the City of London governed itself and where that clashed with the Crown, Joanne’s upbringing in Canada and what drew her to English history, what she thinks sits beneath a lot of Britain’s current stagnation, the subject of her next book, and much more.

Excerpt:

COWEN: As you point out in the book, and you’re well aware, he oversaw the persecution of heretics. He oversaw torture. He was misogynistic when he wrote about women. Was he just a bad guy? Is that the correct picture of More, or am I supposed to admire him? He took a stand on principle, and he died, but what was the principle, really? To defend Catholicism, which then was also an instrument of torture?

PAUL: As a historian, I take one of my principles as to not try to put people into a box of good or evil.

COWEN: I’m not a historian. Should I just dislike him?

PAUL: No, I think you should be interested in these contradictions. I think you should be interested in the complexity that is the human experience. I think we should ask questions about why someone who is clearly very educated, clearly very intelligent, clearly very worldly in many ways, has also these beliefs that we rightly and should condemn. With Thomas More, I think he comes to these beliefs out of a place of fear. I think that’s something that we should take note of. He was afraid of what he would consider the Lutheran heresy. He was afraid of how it would lead to the breakdown of his society, and he was convinced by those people who held that to be the case.

I think that there are important lessons in that for us today, the way that we can become convinced that a group will lead to the breakdown of our society, that fear can lead to that hatred and indeed that violence. I think that’s an important lesson. If we just reject, oh, he was bad, then I don’t think we understand the way in which someone like Thomas More can become convinced that way. In terms of his role in opposing heresy, yes, he advocated for the persecution of heretics. He thought it was right and just that they were burned at the stake. I think that at times his role in that has been overstated, and I think we just need to understand what it was in historical reality.

He imprisoned heretics. He interrogated them. We don’t know if he tortured them. That was something he was accused of at the time. He said he didn’t. I don’t know that we’ll ever find evidence either way on that. There were three cases that he oversaw as Lord Chancellor of those who were burned at the stake. I only say that because I see on social media and the like and people presenting me with the suggestion that hundreds were put to the flames by Thomas More personally. I just think we have to understand what it is that we are actually talking about.

And:

COWEN: What precursors of the scientific revolution do you see, other than education? That’s coming in the 17th century. Is there more emphasis on calculation or measurement or accounting? What are the roots in the Tudor period?

PAUL: A lot of that comes from the Renaissance, as indeed humanism does. There’s this reintroduction of a lot of classical texts, an advocacy for reading these classical texts, particularly Greek texts and learning Greek. A lot of it is coming from an engagement with Greek mathematics and science. The other thing, and this is something I really emphasize when I’m teaching the scientific revolution with my students, is that we have to remember that the scientific revolution isn’t this grand triumph of science over religion or mysticism or what have you, that these two things very much go hand in hand through the 16th and into the 17th century.

The scientific method, for instance, comes from alchemy, which we might think of as an occult science. The methodology for scientific experimentation comes out of this desire to find the philosopher’s stone. Someone like John Dee is this polymath, as well as this occultist, Francis Bacon, has his interests in these sort of mystical elements as well. The growth and interest in what we might think of as mystical texts, a lot of them having to do with Judaism, as well as these Greek texts, comes together to form, I think, something that looks like the foundations of the scientific revolution.

A good episode with many points of interest.  And I enjoyed Joanne’s recent book Thomas More: A Life.

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2. The new balance of power across companies and governments.

3. Using AI to find Brazil’s next soccer star? (NYT)

4. Token resale markets in everything.

5. A music critic reviews himself at age 93.

6. A claim that the World Cup is damaging market liquidity.

7. Soumaya Keynes on whether ideas are getting harder to find (FT).

8. Biology this year so far.

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Chris Gillett points out something surprising: the US has plenty of electricity generation capacity ready to go, the problem is connecting it to the grid. Grid connection is complicated because on the grid, supply must equal demand at every moment in time. Even without speeding the process, however, we could get more power connected to the grid if we rationalized the ordering of connections.

The main flaw of the interconnection process is that it uses a first-come, first-served queue. This means that high-priority requests can spend years stuck at the back of the line behind other less important ones.

In essence, we have an airport congestion problem in which small Cessnas can bump 747s. Auctions for connection rights are the solution, as pointed out for airports by Vickrey and the classic paper by Rassenti, Smith and Bulfin. Gillett also emphasizes that some loads should be allowed to connect on a flexible basis: if a data center can disconnect or use backup power during the few peak hours each year, it should not have to wait years for firm service.

Gillett also has a very nice explanation of how market prices balance electricity from different sources:

Market prices signal to power plant developers about levels of supply and demand. In the same way, prices balance different energy sources based on the strengths and weaknesses of each. For instance, as more solar panels are built, the value (and therefore price) of power during the middle of the day, when the sun is shining most, adjusts downward. From December 2020 to September 2025, maximum solar output in ERCOT increased from 4 to 29.8 gigawatts. And from 2020 to 2025, the value of power at 1pm relative to the highest-priced hour decreased from 92.9 percent to 38.7 percent. As one technology type becomes overbuilt, prices reflect that and developers react accordingly.

The evolving daily price shape in response to the abundance of solar energy was a signal that the grid needed storage capacity, and power plant developers responded. From 2020 to October 2025, ERCOT went from having almost no battery storage to a combined battery discharge of 8.6 gigawatts. The same process has played out in California and many European markets.

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We now have de facto AI regulation. It’s not obvious why from here on out models that have certain levels of capability or are trained on certain compute sizes won’t have to be reviewed by the government before release.

Realistically, as AI models became more and more powerful this was going to be inevitable (I think it’s too early, but here we are). So now it’s mostly just interesting to think about the implications and scenarios from here. A few would be:

* America gets to control who gets access to frontier intelligence and when. This generally works as long as we remain at the frontier at all times and don’t have a risk of being surpassed. At the moment we have a clear lead in frontier intelligence so this is a good bet, but lots of motivated parties would love to change that.

* This likely creates backlog of AI releases which means that we will see less rapid fire back and forth jumps in model progress. Bull/fine case is that we just get bigger step functions per release at a slower rate and we end up at the same point we would have. Bear case is those incremental smaller jumps were necessary for the continued flywheel of innovation.

* Other countries likely have even more incentive to at least hedge their bets with sovereign AI strategies so aren’t dependent on access to US AI all times. Previously this was relatively moot because the alternative wasn’t good enough, but that could change out of necessity and what we’re seeing in China.

* Open weights obviously a big winner here as it becomes what likely sovereign AI gets built out on, and what (for now) can still be released to the market without the same controls. One interesting question would be how regulation eventually extends to open models, which would have its own set of long term consequences.

Anyway some big updates to everyone’s mental models of AI regulation as a result of the capabilities we’re now seeing in AI. Wild times.

Here is the link.  I would say I have long thought something like this was coming, but am pleased we got in so much early progress “under the wire” up until now.  And here is more from Aaron.

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More than 2 billion people participate annually in Ramadan fasting, making its potential effects on cognitive performance important for workplaces, education and high-stakes decision-making. We study these effects in tournament chess, an incentivised, real-world cognitive task in which move quality can be evaluated objectively by a strong chess engine. We analyse nearly 300,000 games and more than 25 million moves played by almost 10,000 expert players from 178 countries over 10 years. Two validation exercises support our Muslim-status classification, covering almost 11% of the sample and survey evidence indicates substantial Ramadan fasting compliance among Muslim chess players. In the preferred intention-to-treat specification, using pre-game controls, player fixed effects and year-month fixed effects, we find no impact of Ramadan fasting on Muslim players’ overall move quality or shares of optimal and nearly optimal moves, with tightly bounded estimates around zero. Muslim players make 0.13 additional percentage points of large errors during Ramadan, but this small estimate is fragile across alternative measures, samples, Muslim-status definitions, fasting-compliance adjustments and event-study diagnostics, with no evidence of heterogeneous effects, selection bias, or compensatory behavioural adjustments. We conclude there is little robust evidence that Ramadan fasting broadly impairs cognitive performance among expert chess players.

That is from a recently published paper by Samuel Buckland and David Smerdon.  Some claim that people think best when they are just a wee bit hungry?

Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

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