Just after two nor'easters pounded New Jersey in a six-day span, and as a third storm brushed parts of the state, Rutgers researchers have released a new study that indicates this could be the new normal for winters to come.
The study finds that as global climate change continues to warm the Arctic region, New Jersey will be subject to colder and snowier winters.
Extreme weather conditions, like major nor'easters and "bomb cyclones," are two to four times more likely in the Eastern U.S. when the Arctic is warmer than normal, according to the study.
Jennifer Francis, a research professor of marine and coastal sciences at Rutgers University, partnered with Atmospheric and Environmental Research researchers Judah Cohen and Karl Pfeiffer for the new study. The research was published today in the journal Nature Communications.
"Basically, this confirms the story I've been telling for a couple of years now," Francis said. "Warm temperatures in the Arctic cause the jet stream to take these wild swings, and when it swings farther south, that causes cold air to reach farther south. These swings tend to hang around for awhile, so the weather we have in the eastern United States, whether it's cold or warm, tends to stay with us longer."
The research found that if warm temperatures in the Arctic extend into the stratosphere over the region, disruptions to the polar vortex are more likely. These disruptions tend to happen in the mid- to late winter, and result in the polar vortex shifting south, over the major cities of the Northeastern U.S.
"Five of the past six winters have brought persistent cold to the eastern U.S. and warm, dry conditions to the West, while the Arctic has been off-the-charts warm," Francis said in a press release. "Our study suggests that this is no coincidence. Exactly how much the Arctic contributed to the severity or persistence of the pattern is still hard to pin down, but it's becoming very difficult to believe they are unrelated."
New Jersey and the Northeastern U.S. aren't the only places affected by fluctuating temperatures in the Arctic, the study says. The study also found that winters are colder in Northern Europe and Northern Asia as the Arctic heats up, while severe winter weather is more likely in the Western U.S. when the Arctic cools down.
The impacts of climate change on New Jersey extend beyond snowier winters. Because of its low elevation, the Garden State is vulnerable to sea level rise.
Some predictions say flooding on the level of Superstorm Sandy could become a regular occurrence after 2030. Studies also show rising seas are beginning to eat away at coastal forests in the Pine Barrens.
Michael Sol Warren may be reached at mwarren@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @MSolDub.