Abstract
Between 2006 and 2017, North Korea conducted six nuclear weapon tests near its border with China, which clearly posed an existential threat to China. Utilizing data from a representative sample of rural households and adopting a quasi-experimental framework, this study analyzes the effects of human-made nuclear threats on the coping strategies of rural households in China living on the border with North Korea. Our results show that nuclear tests have sizable causal effects on several aspects of non-farm employment and land rented out by rural residents in the border area of China. This study finds that, due to the human-made radiation risk resulting from North Korean nuclear tests, households in the border regions of China bordering North Korea increase labor out-migration and lease out more land. Multiple robustness tests consistently support this conclusion. Our study further found that nuclear tests led to a significant decline in the economic viability of villages, which ultimately led to the out-migration of households. We also find that the impact of moving away from rural areas due to nuclear tests is more pronounced for households with higher human capital, higher income, and a lower proportion of elderly family members. As rural households respond to nuclear threats by migrating out, North Korea’s nuclear tests exacerbate the phenomenon of rural hollowing-out in China’s border regions.
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Data availability
The National Fixed Point Survey (NFPS) is obtained under an agreement with the Research Center for Rural Economy (RCRE) of the China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
Notes
Secretary-General António Guterres says in his opening remark for The International Day against Nuclear Tests (IDANT) on 29 August 2019. See the reports on: https://www.un.org/en/academic-impact/examining-human-cost-nuclear-testing.
See the news report by South China Morning Post: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2109725/north-koreas-nuclear-test-site-risk-imploding-chinese.
During the period of nuclear tests, the bilateral relationship between China and North Korea has remained relatively stable, as evidenced by the North Korean leader’s frequent visits to China, totaling 19 times since 2006, as reported by the Chinese Embassy in North Korea.
A preliminary analysis of air samples from North Korea shows “radioactive debris consistent with a North Korea nuclear test,” according to a statement from the office of the top US intelligence official in 2006. See the news report by CNN: https://edition.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/10/13/nkorea.test.sample/index.html.
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Acknowledgements
We want to extend our gratitude to the editor, Klaus F. Zimmermann, and three reviewers for their invaluable contributions. All errors remain our own.
Funding
Tian received financial support from the National Science Foundation of China (No. 71973067, No.71934005). Zhou received financial support from the National Social Science Fund of China (No. 19ZDA117, No.23VRC053).
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Zhou, L., Liu, Z. & Tian, X. Threat beyond the border: Kim Jong-un’s nuclear tests and China’s rural migration. J Popul Econ 37, 4 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-024-00989-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-024-00989-x