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Hubbs: Soybean market will depend on exports to China

An agriculture economist says the soybean market will depend heavily on export demand. Whittling down the USDA’s estimated 620 million bushels of soybean ending stocks will require some aggressive sales, according to Todd Hubbs at the University of Illinois.

“While crush is strong,” Hubbs told Brownfield Ag News Tuesday, “to see a stronger consumption number it’ll have to come from exports.”

A weather premium has evaporated from the market, said Hubbs, who is counting on a traditional U.S. customer to step up.

“I’m optimistic China will buy,” said Hubbs, “and we can maybe hit USDA’s 2.05 billion bushel forecast for next year.”

Livestock prices aren’t high enough to encourage herd expansion, and pandemic worries will continue to hurt restaurant business and meat demand, he said.

“There is some concern there, from my perspective, about the coronavirus resurgence, and continuing in the fall and early next year,” said Hubbs, adding that meat and soybean exports to China will be important for consumption of U.S. soybeans.