Dow Inc. (DOW) Morgan Stanley’s 14th Annual Laguna Conference September 16, 2026 1:00 PM EDT
Company Participants
Jeffrey Tate – Chief Financial Officer
Jeffrey Tate Chief Financial Officer
Great. Thank you, [ Mark. ] And good morning, everyone, and thank you for having me today. Before we get into your questions, I’d like to begin with just a few remarks to paint a picture of how the third quarter has evolved. I’ll share Dow’s views on the external factors and market conditions that have the greatest impact on our business as well as an overview of our self-help actions, continued financial discipline and our near-term priorities.
Now I’ll start on Slide 2, with the current environment. The macro backdrop remains dynamic and largely unchanged from what we outlined in July at our earnings. Specific to Dow, our strategically advantaged global footprint and local supply chains in every region continue to be differentiators for us. The oil-to-gas spread remains elevated as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue, supported by recent material escalation of crude pricing, while gas remains largely unaffected. This reinforces the competitive advantage of Dow’s purpose-built asset base and feedstock position that we’ve developed over decades. And while the tariff landscape has become more complex, Dow’s direct exposure remains minimal.
That said, continued volatility and uncertainty in the early part of the third quarter have created some headwinds that we’re working to offset.
Several market developments are working in our favor, which we expect to at least partially offset some of the impacts, but we’ve got more work to do. More specifically, July polyethylene prices in the Americas settled down $0.10 per pound. This reflected declining feedstock prices and margins in the early part of the month when initial expectations for a durable solution to the Middle East conflict began to surface.
In August, however, widespread reporting indicated those expectations were not realistic in the immediate term. In the month, we saw some improvement in the global operating environment along with higher oil prices. This ultimately led to polyethylene prices selling flat month-over-month.
So far in September, we are seeing a strengthening order book, including in Asia. Along with the recent sharp escalation in global feedstock costs, this supports our announced global price increases globally, including $0.10 to $0.12 per pound for polyethylene in the Americas. With a rapidly rising cost environment, we are implementing these price increases with urgency.
So looking at some of the key markets that Dow serves across our portfolio, consumers remain selective with spending trends favoring essential items. Additionally, the building and construction and automotive markets continue to face challenges amid a cautious monetary policy environment. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and other regional water was also remains constrained, tightening global supply further. And low water levels in Europe, including the Rhine, are constraining competitor supply across several products, which is leading to higher market prices across our Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment.
So to summarize, the geopolitical and macro backdrops remain volatile and demand signals are mixed. While polyethylene price declines early in the quarter represent a headwind, Dow continues to lead with deliberate actions, and we remain focused on controlling what we can control. Our self-help actions and the breadth of our portfolio are helping to partially offset this impact, and we now expect to deliver EBITDA of $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion for the third quarter. This represents our best estimate based on what we see today, recognizing that a continued volatile environment this month could ultimately influence the outcome.
Next, I’ll share some examples on Slide 3 that outline the ways in which we are taking decisive actions to improve our financial strength. First and foremost, we continue to enhance Dow’s balance sheet and near-term financial performance. To start, our major planned maintenance for the year is now complete at several of our largest assets, which should provide a tailwind in the fourth quarter. In addition, we received the remaining tax withholding related to the NOVA litigation settlement earlier this quarter. We are also actively prioritizing deleveraging with excess cash, and we expect to release more than $500 million of net working capital in the second half of this year.
Looking longer term, we have no substantive debt maturities until 2029. And importantly, we continue to deliver our self-help actions, including our recently upsized in-year target for Transform to Outperform. With this, we now expect to deliver $1.3 billion in total benefits from self-help in 2026.
Our intentional actions continue to strengthen Dow’s credit profile as improved earnings, balanced capital allocation and self-help actions drive higher cash generation and lower leverage. This was evident by a recent rating agency outlook upgrade.
Next on Slide 4. I’ll unpack some additional details on how Transform to Outperform is delivering value as a significant contributor to our self-help improvements. We expect Transform to Outperform will deliver an upsized benefit of approximately $700 million this year, clearly demonstrating the early value we are capturing. Importantly, we remain confident in the more than $2 billion total opportunity that our transformation will deliver, and we’re seeing significant early results from every work stream. A broad range of actions will contribute to the benefits we expect in the second half of this year. And let me highlight just a few examples.
We already implemented approximately 70%, 7-0, of the total Dow role reductions, and we expect to implement nearly all of them before the end of this year. This is expected to contribute more than $200 million of EBITDA uplift in the second half.
Unknown Analyst
Interesting. Let’s shift gears maybe over to Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure. You touched on some of the softness we’re seeing in some of these markets, housing, obviously, being one of them. But you’re expecting a normal seasonal decline in building and construction in Q3 with some margin pressures in Europe. We’ve all been waiting for this recovery now in the housing market for some time, and yet housing starts and existing home sales are still well below historic averages. What are you seeing thus far this quarter in building and construction? And how are you managing the business through the current higher-for-longer rate environment?
Jeffrey Tate Chief Financial Officer
Sure. I mean when you look at building and construction for us and specifically in the II&I segment, there are a couple of dynamics that I think are worth mentioning. One, yes, building and construction is a significant portion of the portfolio, but it’s a mixed bag from a demand perspective because data centers also do provide some level of a tailwind within that segment for us. The other thing that I would also mention, [ Mark, ] is we have our Dow Industrial Solutions business as well, that is an II&I segment. That’s the alkoxylation investments that we’ve made over the past couple of years. So again, you think about home care, personal care, pharma, electronics as well, those are areas that are growing higher margin, faster than GDP, which will continue to provide that tailwind for us as we think about year-over-year growth.
Unknown Analyst
Interesting. All right. Maybe just keeping on II&I, you flagged that normalization of peer MDI and PO capacity, which had been disrupted in Q2, is expected to be a headwind in Q3. Market commentary had indicated that the upstream carbon monoxide issue had flared up in early July before fading again. Can you help us size that perhaps? And how quickly have peers restarted, if they have even? And what’s the EBITDA headwind from MDI and PO margin compression that’s embedded in the Q3 guide?
Jeffrey Tate Chief Financial Officer
Well, the interesting thing is that because of the industrial gas supply issue that I think you’re referring to, the industry supply is still tight. So we’re actually seeing some pricing momentum in this period of tighter supply, which we’re being able to really execute on as we ramp up our operating rates on the U.S. Gulf Coast related to MDI. So that’s one of the areas where if you looked at the beginning of the quarter versus where we are now, it’s giving us a slight tailwind to close out third quarter, which is positive for us.
