UK trade with the EU, as a per cent of total trade in volume terms in Q3 2023, was at its highest levels since Q2 2008. In Q4 2023, it increased further from 53.4% to 53.6%. This does appear to imply that trade with the EU is increasing. Trade with non-EU countries is actually going down, leading to the more stable trade with the EU making up a higher share of UK trade overall.
This led to the annual total for 2023 being the highest since 2008, with 53.1% of total UK trade being made up by trade with the EU. As discussed in the previous trade tracker, this has surprised many trade economists. Following Brexit, it was largely anticipated that trade with the EU would suffer. While trade did initially dip in 2021 it recovered quite quickly and has returned to prepandemic and pre-TCA levels. What has puzzled economists is why trade with non-EU countries is going down. It will likely take more granular trade data, such as at firm-level, in future to come to an answer.
That is from Mark Kingsley-Williams.