Boosting fertility by subsidizing child-bearing for *young* women

From Vidya Mahambare:

Several countries have grappled with a longstanding dilemma – how to reverse the trend of falling fertility rates. In 2019, eighty-one countries had fertility rates below the population replacement threshold. The replacement fertility rate, estimated at 2.1 births per woman, represents the level required to sustain a stable population over the long run, assuming mortality and migration remain constant.

Is it now time, at least in some countries, to implement policies targeted at lowering the age at which women have their first child?

Perhaps, yes. Here is why.

While most countries in Europe, Northern America, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and China have had low fertility rate for years, India, the most populous country, joined them in 2021. Countries such as Greece, Italy, Japan, and Spain have had very low fertility levels below 1.5 births per woman for decades. South Korea has the lowest fertility rate, with 0.8 births per woman.

Countries have tried several policies to raise the fertility rates, with only sporadic and local success. A commonly adopted measure is maternity leave, paid or unpaid, with job security. Other policies include subsidised childcare, child or family allowances, paid or unpaid paternity leave, flexible or part-time work hours for parents, and tax credits for dependent children.

These measures are appropriate, but miss one point.

The age at which a mother gives birth to her first child can impact her likelihood of having a second child. In several developed countries, the mean age of mothers at the birth of their first child has surpassed or is close to 30 years. Since 2000, many countries have seen the mean age at first birth increase by at least two years. Even in China, reports indicate that the age at which new mothers give birth to their first child now exceeds 30 years in Shanghai.

Until 2010, the largest number of new births in developed countries occurred among mothers aged 25 to 29. Presently, the highest number of first-time mothers falls within the 30-34 age group. Women can and do have successful deliveries in their late thirties and early forties. For many, it is a deliberate decision to start a family late.

The point however, is this – even if a woman desires to reconsider her choice of having a single child, there is less time and inclination to reverse the course if the first childbirth occurs after the mother reaches the age of 30.

Studies often report decreased happiness and life satisfaction during the early stages of parenthood, and younger parents may be unhappier. This is not the same as saying children don’t make parents happy. Parenthood by itself can have a substantial positive effect on life satisfaction but time and monetary cost offsets it. That is why the negative association between fertility and happiness is weaker in countries with higher public support for families.

As parents gain experience and adjust to the demands of parenthood, they may become more adept at managing stress and finding joy in parenthood. They may begin to recognise that loosening the intensive parenting norm relieves stress and raises happiness. Also, recently a study shows that the reported results about the trade-off between happiness and children require strong assumptions about how individuals report happiness and their beliefs about its distribution in society.

Rising female education and employment, women’s delayed entry into the labour market, high monetary and time cost of raising kids, and rising real estate prices have all played a role in declining fertility. In societies where marriage is culturally deemed essential for starting a family, the rising age at marriage and a declining marriage rate also contribute to a postponement in having the first child. For example, In South Korea, a country where only 2% of childbirth is outside marriage, the marriage rate has slid to a record low.

Countries need to contemplate whether they should promote more women having their first child in their twenties. Historically, several countries have had official policies to raise women’s age at marriage and the age at their first child. Is it time to shift gears?

Should countries that aim to boost fertility consider offering increased financial incentives or tax concessions for specific age brackets? Is it time for countries, including Canada and the United States of America, which currently have below-replacement level fertility and lack official policies to influence fertility levels, to initiate strategies aimed at reducing the average age of women with their first child?

Further, several countries facing fertility crises continue to subsidise family planning services directly through public programs or indirectly through non-governmental organisations. Indeed, the option for family planning should be accessible to all adults, but is there a necessity to offer public support for it in countries facing below-replacement-level fertility rates?

A word of caution. The above suggestions do not apply to all countries with fertility rates below the replacement level. An example is India, where the mother’s mean age at first birth is still less than 22 years, with the median age at first marriage less than 20 years in 2019-21 for women in 25-29 age cohort.

What may go wrong with a policy that aims to lower women’s age at first child? Could it be that women would still prefer to have only one child but at a younger age? Yes, that is possible, but that’s no different from today and, hence, not a worse outcome. Would women end up compromising their education and employment? Not really, if we are targeting the whole age group of twenties. Can couples afford to have children 2-3 years earlier than now? That’s tough to answer, but it may be feasible with childcare subsidies and workplace support.

To be clear, child support should be available for women of all ages. Exploring increased incremental support tailored to specific age groups might be worthwhile in a race to raise fertility rates.