Henning: Breaking down relievers' chances of making Tigers

Lakeland, Fla. — Sitting in the manager's chair at Joker Marchant Stadium, most surrogate skippers would view the Tigers' 2015 bullpen as Brad Ausmus tentatively outlines it.

You assume six men are all but sure to be part of a seven-man Tigers relief crew:

Joe Nathan. Joakim Soria. Al Alburquerque. Joba Chamberlain. Bruce Rondon. Tom Gorzelanny.

But will those six pitch well enough during the Grapefruit League season that begins Tuesday to crack a 25-man roster that next month heads to Detroit for Opening Day?

Not sure about that. At all.

Nathan is 40 and pitched last season like a man who was on the doorstep of retirement, if not well past the door. Rondon might need an extra few weeks or longer to put his TJ surgery in the archives. Joba Chamberlain tossed a lot of bad baseball in the 2014 season's second half. Gorzelanny is 32 and has a career ERA of 4.27 with a fat WHIP of 1.43.

"I think those six — I'd be surprised if they don't (make the team)," Ausmus said last week, speaking of the half-dozen bodies most Tigers students assume will go north in April.

Again, the manager has a practical and diplomatic need to cite those six as he talks about his 2015 bullpen. They either pitched for most of 2014 in Detroit, or, in the case of Rondon, would have pitched, had he not had Tommy John surgery last March.

Or, they worked elsewhere before signing with Detroit, as is the record with Gorzelanny, who has 10 seasons of big-league stripes and who was brought aboard to replace departed lefty, Phil Coke.

That leaves one spot open on the bullpen's seven-man manifest. Ideally, Ausmus, who didn't always have the most cooperative band of relievers in big league baseball in 2014, will add a second left-hander to the bunch, which likely will be either Blaine Hardy or Ian Krol.

But he knows there was an obvious move by the Tigers front office to bring to this spring camp an army of arms that might, by sheer volume, protect the team from the brand of bullpen breakdowns that have maimed the Tigers the past three years, particularly in October's playoffs.

"Whether it's the bullpen, or the draft, you always try to surround yourself with an abundance of quality arms," Ausmus said, "knowing they all can't be as great as you hope they are, but hoping that a percentage will and can be successful."

This band of potential Comerica Park relievers includes known names, like Hardy and Krol, as well as a couple of newbies in Alex Wilson and Josh Zeid. They blend with farm arms who were summoned in 2014 (Kyle Ryan, Buck Farmer), mostly because Joel Hanrahan, a former star signed last May, didn't come back quickly from his 2013 Tommy John surgery. He is still feeling effects today.

And that brings us to one man's odds for the seven relievers who have the best chance in 34 days to board a team charter to Detroit:

Nathan, 40, right-hander: He would need to pitch disastrously and with no hope for recovery for the Tigers not to take him and his $10 million contract ($11 million counting a 2016 option buyout) north. That does not mean Nathan will show enough during spring camp to rank as Detroit's certified closer. And there's the rub: If he isn't sharp enough to close, he likely isn't good enough to warrant a job. Percentages are in his favor, but watch Nathan closely in March. Odds to make team: 2-1.

Soria, 30, right-hander: Following last July's trade from the Rangers, baggage handlers at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport must have seized Soria's mojo at the point he boarded a plane for Detroit. He had a 1.06 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 25 games last season for the Rangers. He got to Detroit, pitched indecently in a couple of early stints, then strained an oblique muscle and went on the disabled list as part of a 4.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP for his new team. Assume the old Soria will show up, beginning with this month's Grapefruit League tune-up. Odds to make team: lock.

Alburquerque, 28, right-hander: You didn't see him in last October's playoffs. And that's still tough to swallow when the bullpen blew up and Alburquerque rolled up these numbers during the regular season: 2.51 ERA, 1.17 WHIP. Odds to make team: lock.

Rondon, 24, right-hander: Could easily become the best reliever the Tigers will feature in 2015. He has power the other guys can't touch. But he has not pitched since 2013 and might need a bit more time in Florida after the team has departed for April's chills and thrills. Odds to make team (on Opening Day): 3-1.

Chamberlain, 29, right-hander: The Tigers and Chamberlain looked as if they gambled and killed the casino when Chamberlain put together two superb months to begin the 2014 season. Then, he fell apart. The Tigers doubled-down on Chamberlain on a cheap, one-year deal for 2015. They'll know in Florida if his Tommy John history is in the past or still affecting a guy who could, again, be one of those surprises most good bullpens get in a particular season. Odds to make team: 3-2.

Gorzelanny, 32, left-hander: The Tigers are his fifth big-league team, and Gorzelanny is as close to a known quantity as comes with a lefty reliever. He gets a strikeout or so each inning, and walks a man every three innings. Not a shutdown guy but effective. Odds to make team: 6-5.

Hardy, 27 (28 on March 14), left-hander: Tigers signed him as a minor league free agent in 2013. And, like that sweater you found hiding in a dresser drawer, he became a handy surprise in 2014: 2.59 ERA in 38 games. But beware: Hardy walked 20 batters in 39 innings, which is why his WHIP (1.38) was too high. Odds to make team: 7-1.

Kyle Ryan, 23, left-hander: The Tigers are planning on looking at a former minor league starter as a long-relief option and, right now, he has the best shot. It could make life unfair for either Krol or Hardy — or, it could put more pressure on one of those presumed right-handed favorites to win a ticket to Detroit. Odds to make team: 3-1.

Krol, 23, left-hander: Has the best stuff of any left-hander in camp. But he did a year ago, and then he had a dead arm, and his conditioning became an issue, and, well, Krol didn't help a Tigers front office trying to make people forget about Doug Fister and a trade that brought to Detroit Krol and Robbie Ray. Still, if you're looking for a guy back in the pack to steal a bullpen seat, go with Krol. Odds to make team: 6-1.

Hanrahan, 33, right-hander: Tigers might have gotten one of 2014's steals had Hanrahan followed the normal Tommy John timetable and joined them at mid-season. But he reinjured himself during a rehab stint and his arm is still aching. And that might have finished any chances with the Tigers. Odds to make team: 25-1.

Wilson, 28, right-hander: He was an oft-forgotten piece in the Rick Porcello-Yoenis Cespedes trade. He has minor league options remaining and figures to begin the year at Triple A Toledo. But he had good numbers for the Red Sox in 2014 (1.91 ERA, .88 WHIP) in 18 games and 28¹/₃ innings, which suggests, if you're looking for a Lakeland surprise, go with Wilson. Odds to make team: 7-1.

Farmer, 24, right-hander: Tigers are temporarily thinking of Farmer as a reliever, given that their past inventories have been light. He is there, for the time being, as padding, and throws hard enough to qualify as a potential late-innings ally. It would be no surprise if in six or eight weeks Farmer is again starting. Odds to make team: 15-1.

Zeid, 27, right-hander: Tigers got him from the Astros via waiver wire. Has a fine arm. But he has been popped for a few too many hits and allows his share of walks. He's a project, but, so many times with bullpens, half the relief staff was once upon a time afterthoughts. Odds to make team: 20-1.

And so there are your unofficial Vegas numbers as the Tigers begin this week to see if seven relievers destined for Detroit can be expected to finish a game their starters tend normally to capably begin.

For now, it looks like a six-man bunch with a seventh spot open. But don't be fooled by seniority or by diplomacy. This Tigers bullpen has to be better in 2015. And being better may mean being different, not only in performance, but in composition.

Lynn.henning@detroitnews.com

Twitter.com/Lynn_Henning