Summary trends of 2023

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here is my biggest worry:

Another takeaway from 2023 is more depressing: Deterrence is less powerful than I thought. Persistence, combined with a belief in one’s cause, is worth more.

The Israeli military is much stronger than Hamas, for example, and is currently proving that on the ground. Yet that did not stop Hamas from proceeding with a violent incursion into Israel. In Ukraine, substantial support from the US and other NATO nations has not stopped Russia from pursuing a war, even with very heavy losses in terms of its military power and international reputation. Russian President Vladimir Putin simply wants Ukraine, and believes some parts of it rightfully belong to Russia.

None of this is good news for the US, which relies on deterrence to support its numerous alliances. It is also bad news for the world at large, because deterrence tends to support peaceful outcomes and the status quo.

Which leads me to another piece of academic research: I am increasingly inclined to reject psychologist Steven Pinker’s view that the world is becoming more peaceful. Unfortunately, the available evidence suggests that international conflict is on the rise again, after a long period of decline. Cyclical theories of world peace and conflict — in particular the idea that peace eventually breeds the conditions for war — are thus due for an upgrade.

You could add the Houthis to that list as well.  I consider AI and governance issues as well.