Where did all the Paraguayans go?

And when Paraguay’s National Statistical Institute released preliminary data on August 31st, they pointed to a surprising conclusion. Unusually for a fast-growing, emerging economy, the population appeared to have drastically shrunk. The last census, in 2012, found that Paraguayans numbered nearly 6.5m. Official projections held that the population would grow to almost 7.5m by now. Instead, the new survey points to a figure of barely 6.1m. Many reacted with derision. “We will basically have to plan for a new Paraguay,” a nonplussed Carlos Valdovinos, the economy minister, told reporters. Even the director of the INE, Iván Ojeda, admitted to having initial doubts about the results.

But the mystery can be explained, says Norma Medina, an official. Nearly half a million of her compatriots have migrated since the turn of the millennium, including many young women taking up jobs as nurses and nannies in Spain and Argentina. Whereas Paraguayan families once reliably produced 3.5 children on average, that figure has fallen sharply over the past 20 years, to 2.3. Life expectancy has risen, but the pandemic kept it in the low 70s.

More to the point, the 2012 census was botched…

Here is more from The Economist.