Why Singaporean democracy is like a social media graph

The Singaporean polity is far more democratic than most underinformed outsiders realize.  Nonetheless it is frequently observed that the same party — PAP — keeps on winning elections.  Furthermore, there is an extreme method of gerrymandering, so PAP might win sixty percent of the vote and end up with ninety percent or so of the seats in the legislature.

Whatever you think of that arrangement, I expect it will prove difficult to undo.  In Singapore, civil service jobs are extremely important.  They are well paid and attract a very high quality of elite, and they are a major means of networking and advancing your own reputation, if only because so many other elites are in government as well.  (On top of that, the start-up scene is not so dynamic there, so the opportunity cost of public service is lower than in say CA or NYC.)

All that contributes to Singapore having an extremely high quality civil service.

But these networks have elements of natural monopoly to them.  If you are a talented Singaporean, of course you will view the PAP as the natural vehicle for your efforts, even if you disagree with a lot of PAP policies.  Working from within the PAP would be the most logical attempt to change the system, as there is “no other game in town.”  That is better for you, and it is better for Singapore as well.

So, if only for careerist reasons (put aside performance and reelection issues, though of course they are important), PAP is a self-replicating network that maintains a very high degree of influence over the Singaporean polity.  It is the network you have to join.

You could imagine the PAP someday suffering a shocking electoral loss, just as the election of Trump shocked many American elites.  But alternate parties would not have the talent infrastructure to staff their own regime with their preferred points of view, not with anything remotely resembling the current level of competence.  For better or worse, PAP affiliates still would be running most of the government.

And that is one reason — by no means the only reason — why it is difficult for Singaporean democracy to become truly contestable.

You will note of course that many American cities — some with roughly the population of Singapore — also keep on electing the same party repeatedly.  If you want to change Chicago city politics at the electoral level, working through the Democratic Party is probably your primary option.  And so this problem of natural monopoly political networks extends well beyond Singapore.