Are we evolving toward narrow banking?
That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one excerpt:
…the narrow banking model has long been plagued by two major problems. First, there have never been enough safe assets to satisfy the demands of depositors. Second, excessive investment in government securities tends to crowd out private investment. The rise of narrow banking can in part be explained by the mitigation of both these issues.
Alas government debt has gone up! But those new safe assets do have some advantages. And:
The shifting of private funds into Treasury bills could be problematic if that meant credit to the private sector was shrinking. But the rise of private equity and other forms of non-bank finance has made that less of a concern. While private equity growth has slowed since the second half of 2022, it has been on a steady rise since the financial crisis.
Private equity allows many new ventures to be financed, and a run on private equity firms is difficult to pull off, since they are not funding themselves by issuing liquid demand deposits. A private equity venture has a much greater ability to withstand swings in the market. By one metric, private equity measures at almost $12 trillion in value as of mid-2022 — another sign of the US economy advancing in its tools of financial intermediation.
These are not pure market developments, as they are partly a response to the growing regulatory burden on banks, most of all capital requirements. Again, the current regulatory dynamic is not entirely stable. Unstable banks do create trouble, and in return higher legal and regulatory burdens are placed on them, thereby diminishing their profitability. The cycle continues, and implementing tougher regulations hastens the changes rather than halting them.