Compared with past 100 years of storms, 2023 hurricane season predicted to be fairly normal

You can expect a near-normal hurricane season of five to nine hurricanes in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico this year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's 2023 forecast, released Thursday.

The region has averaged six hurricanes a year since 1923. Similarly, 12 to 17 tropical storms are predicted for 2023 – comparable to the 100-year average of 12.

A contributing factor in this year's prediction is the possibility of an El Niño weather pattern forming off the western coast of South America. El Niño systems usually suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, the National Weather Service says.

By comparison, 2005 was one of the most active year for storms with 15 hurricanes and 28 named storms. That included Hurricane Katrina, one of the most destructive hurricanes in U.S. history. The 30 storms in 2020 were the most on record.

NOAA predictions for this year

The Atlantic Basin includes the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The 2023 hurricane season starts June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

How does the 2023 prediction compare with past 100 years?

There have been 606 hurricanes since 1923.

How does the 2023 prediction compare for named storms?

There have been 1,175 named tropical storms since 1923.

Tropical storms are named when they rotate in a circular pattern and reach wind speeds of at least 39 mph. A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when its wind speeds exceed 74 mph.

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CONTRIBUTING Dinah Voyles Pulver and Doyle Rice, USA TODAY

SOURCE USA TODAY Network reporting and research; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Colorado State University; Associated Press