Scientists warn El Niño is likely coming. What does that mean for New Mexico?

Buckle up. The world’s most influential natural weather feature is shifting gears. 

An El Niño is building along the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean, and chances are above normal it will be a strong El Niño, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says. That could have dramatic consequences in the United States and around the globe this year and into next year.  

Climate scientists are especially concerned about the potential for hotter temperatures. Given things already are warmer than normal, they say, a strong El Niño could send global average temperatures soaring to a record high.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern. It's counterpart, La Niña, ended over the winter after three years of disastrous weather.

The most recent ocean temperature in the El Niño region, the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, was just 0.1 degrees Celsius from the threshold needed to declare an El Niño, Nat Johnson, with NOAA’S Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, wrote in a blog post.

But while the ocean appears ready, Johnson said, the tropical atmosphere remains in more neutral territory in the atmospheric indexes the scientists watch. But the signs are getting stronger, giving scientists growing confidence in an El Niño declaration by July, Johnson said. Chances for a strong El Niño are about 55%.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a natural climate pattern in which surface sea water temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are warmer than average.

Its name means the Little Boy, or Christ Child in Spanish. El Niño originally was recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s with the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean around Christmas.

The entire natural climate cycle is officially known as El Niño – Southern Oscillation, called ENSO by scientists. The cycle swings between warmer and cooler seawater in a region along the equator in the tropical Pacific. La Niña is marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the region. 

What does that mean for New Mexico?

Rick Hluchan, a meteorologist with the Midland/Odessa station of the National Weather Service, said the forecasted El Niño may not affect New Mexico during the summer months, but can mean more rain in the winter months.

"In an El Niño situation, the jet stream that we get down here can deliver more storm systems and that can mean more rain if we have the moisture," Hluchan said.

"Everything has to come together for us to get that precipitation, that above normal precipitation."

That could be good news for a drought stricken New Mexico.

Why do we care about El Niño?

The ENSO cycle is the primary factor government scientists consider when announcing their winter weather forecast because it mainly influences our weather in the colder months. 

During an El Niño winter, the southern third of the U.S. typically experiences wetter-than-average conditions, while the northern third sees enhanced chances of below-normal precipitation, said David DeWitt, director of the Climate Prediction Center.

That could be important for states such as Washington, Oregon and Montana that get much of their annual precipitation in the winter, DeWitt said. El Niño also means increased chances for below-normal temperatures across the southern U.S. and above-normal temperatures in the northern third of the country.

Though El Niño means fewer storms and milder weather to the north, the threat of tornadoes is significantly greater in Central and South Florida, according to the National Weather Service.

During a La Niña, conditions flip, with colder and stormier conditions to the north and warmer, less stormy conditions across the south.

Rainfall in the southern U.S. and the west coast of South America can cause destructive flooding during El Niño, while drought conditions in the western Pacific have been associated with devastating brush fires in Australia.

'Very strong' El Niño years

Hluchan said in the last three decades only three "very strong" El Niños were recorded: 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016.

Strong El Ninos were recorded in 1987-1988 and 1991-1992. Moderate El Niños were recorded over four season between 1986 and 1010, with several weak seasons in the same three decades.

Hluchan cautioned that the El Niño predication is just that- a prediction.

"I will caution several years ago we had a forecast of a strong Niño that did not occur," he said.

"We just came out of a triple dip La Niña where we have three winters in a row where La Niña was observed, which was very rare - only happened two other times since recording began in the 1950s.

"We went to a neutral spring and now, at least the forecast models are starting to hit at El Niño , possibly a strong one."

April set heat records worldwide

The ocean was already warm even as the El Niño began to brew. NOAA’s April summary reflects the warming temperatures:

• Global average ocean temperatures set a record high for the month of April at 1.55 degrees Fahrenheit above the long-term average.
• It was just .02 degrees shy of the record-warm ocean temperatures set in January 2016 during a strong El Niño. 
• The Southern Hemisphere experienced its warmest month on record.
• The global average temperature was the fourth-warmest April in NOAA’s 174-year record, 1.8 degrees above the 20th-century average of 56.7 degrees Fahrenheit.
• April was the 530th consecutive month with temperatures above the 20th-century average.

Will 2024 be the hottest year in New Mexico?

Although La Niña has been known for cooling global average temperatures, 2022 was still the sixth-warmest year in records that date back to 1880. 

With an El Niño arrival, scientists expect to see a marked increase in global average temperatures. 

“It turns out the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures kind of act as a pacemaker for global surface temperatures,” DeWitt said. During El Niño events, global surface temperatures mirror temperature increases in the tropical Pacific. 

In a blog post in April by the United Kingdom's Met Office, Adam Scaife, its head of long-range forecasting, said: “The current record for global temperature occurred in 2016 and it’s no coincidence that followed the last big El Niño. If we get a big El Niño at the end of this year then, we’re likely to break the record for global temperature in 2024.”

The Met Office has said an El Niño could at least temporarily push the global average temperature up to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures, DeWitt said.

That 1.5-degree Celsius mark above the long-term global temperature is a level world leaders had hoped to avoid.

While Hluchan said there's no data to suggest we get "more or less" rain in the summertime due to El Niño or the prolong La Niña of the last three years, there is also little likelihood it will affect temperatures in New Mexico.

Temperatures reached a new record in June 2022, when Roswell experienced 109 degree heat. The record for highest temperature is held by Lakewood, in southeast New Mexico which reached 122 degrees in 1994, and New Mexico's southeast desert region seemed to nearing new records in 2022 when temperatures reached 110 degree heat.

A days-long heat wave covered New Mexico in 2022, where extreme drought and windy conditions fueled some of the state's largest and most destructive wildfires.

Dinah Voyles Pulver, Doyle Rice, Ramon Padilla, USA TODAY contributed to this reporting.

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