Penn State's big postseason plans: Here's how the Lions could land in the Rose Bowl

Frank Bodani
York Daily Record

Penn State's Top 10 ranking, along with some timely help from others, has all but guaranteed it marquee postseason plans.

And the Rose Bowl, the most iconic destination, is still quite possible − even though it may take an unorthodox move to make it happen.

Regardless, the 10-2 Nittany Lions should at least be picked by the New Year's Six Cotton or Orange bowls when postseason bids are revealed Sunday afternoon.

The Lions' Senior Day victory over Michigan State, combined with key losses by Clemson, Oregon and LSU, have all but locked them into one of the biggest non-playoff bowl games. Penn State will be as high as No. 8 when Tuesday's next College Football Playoff rankings are released.

Penn State cornerback Kalen King (4) celebrates with Jaylen Reed (7) after intercepting a pass against Michigan State at Beaver Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 26, 2022, in State College. The Nittany Lions won, 35-16.

A fourth Big Rose Bowl for Penn State?

The Lions most clear path to the Rose Bowl on Jan. 2 would be for Big Ten leaders Michigan and Ohio State to both be selected for the four-team playoff. And that could still happen, depending on the outcome of next weekend's championship games.

However, the Buckeyes' decisive defeat to Michigan last Saturday almost certainly will drop them to at least No. 5 in the playoff rankings. They almost certainly will now need help backing into the playoffs − a championship game upset loss by TCU or, maybe even moreso, by USC.

Neither happens? Penn State still has a Rose Bowl shot.

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Typically, Rose Bowl officials would select the highest-ranked Big Ten team remaining (Ohio State) to fill its slot vacated by the playoff-bound Wolverines. There is a caveat to consider, though:

Since Penn State will be ranked only a few spots lower than Ohio State, the Tournament of Roses could easily choose the Lions, instead, in order to secure a better traveling fan base, a more motivated team and appealing match-up. The Buckeys just played Utah in the Rose Bowl last year and also played in the game a couple of years before that.

Penn State has not been to the Rose Bowl since the 2016 season.

From the Rose Bowl selection guidelines:

"In a cluster situation, the Tournament of Roses will take into account factors, in no particular order, such as: the last time a team played in the Rose Bowl Game, head-to-head results, regular season schedule, overall record, opponents played, past playoff or bowl appearances and performance, and historical matchups.

In this case, Ohio State could jump to the Orange Bowl to play the winner of the ACC title game (Clemson vs. North Carolina). Alabama would play Kanasas State or TCU in the Sugar Bowl and Tennessee would face Tulane or Central Florida in the Cotton.

The Rose would have Penn State matched against a Pac-12 team such as Washington.

Cotton Bowl next likely Penn State home

Freshman linebacker Abdul Carter (11) has been doing his best Micah Parsons impersonation in recent games. Could he dominate the Cotton Bowl like MVP Parsons did in 2019?

If traditional picks and expectations hold, the Nittany Lions will play the highest-ranked Group of Five team (winner of Tulane-Central Florida) in the Jan. 2 Cotton Bowl in Arlington, Texas.

That means Ohio State will head to the Rose Bowl with Alabama in the Sugar and Tennessee in the Orange.

Penn State last played in the Cotton after the 2019 season, defeating Memphis.

The Dec. 30 Orange Bowl in Miami comes into play for the Lions only if the Rose Bowl route fails and Orange Bowl officials pick them over Tennessee. That would send the Vols to the Cotton.

Penn State has not played in the Orange Bowl since the 2005 season.

Frank Bodani covers Penn State football for the York Daily Record and USA Today Network. Contact him at fbodani@ydr.com and follow him on Twitter @YDRPennState.