Who joins top five after Tennessee's shocking loss? Our college football coaches poll prediction

For a good chunk of Saturday, the best teams in the Bowl Subdivision escaped with close wins to avoid any major shakeups to the USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches Poll.

Then South Carolina scored 35 points in the first half and upset Tennessee 63-38, ending the Volunteers' hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff and bringing change to the top five for the first time in weeks. 

This loss losses shake things up just after the top four. Not that this group had it easy: Georgia managed just one touchdown in a 16-6 win against Kentucky, Ohio State didn't put Maryland away until the final minute, Michigan beat Illinois 19-17 on a field goal with nine seconds left and TCU topped Baylor 29-28 with a field goal as time expired.

What do with Tennessee is the biggest question when it comes to predicting the top 10 in this week's rankings. How far will the Volunteers fall given this year's wins against LSU and Alabama?

1. Georgia (11-0)

The Bulldogs' 361 yards of offense were a season low and the 16 points the fewest in an SEC game since beating the Wildcats 14-3 in 2020. This is the second time this year that Georgia has been unable to put away a lesser opponent, joining the 26-22 win against Missouri to begin October.

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2. Ohio State (11-0)

A strange-but-true fact: Ohio State has been outgained in three of its last four games despite winning each game by at least 13 points. Penn State had 482 yards to the Buckeyes' 452. Northwestern gained 285 yards, OSU 282. And in the 43-30 win against Maryland, the Buckeyes put up 401 yards but gave up 402. Getting outgained by Michigan on Saturday might yield a different result. 

CLOSE SHAVE:Ohio State survives scare from Maryland to stay unbeaten

3. Michigan (11-0)

Had TCU put together a double-digit win at Baylor, it might've been easy to see the Horned Frogs leapfrog the Wolverines into third. As it is, the 19-17 win is by far Michigan's closest result of the season; before Saturday, only one game had been decided by single digits. Give the game ball to All-America kicker Jake Moody, who made all four of his field goals, three in the fourth quarter alone.

MAJOR COMEBACAK:Late field goal gets Michigan past Illinois

4. TCU (11-0)

That TCU has managed to be so successful in close games is a reflection on first-year coach Sonny Dykes, who has imbued the Horned Frogs with the confidence to overcome any deficit. Against Baylor, that meant climbing out of a 28-20 hole with just minutes left in the fourth quarter.

STILL ALIVE:TCU remains in playoff hunt with dramatic defeat of Baylor

5. Southern California (10-1)

After beating UCLA 45-42, the Trojans are a simple pick to replace Tennessee in the top five and as the team set to crack the top four after next weekend's huge matchup between the Buckeyes and Wolverines - should they get past Notre Dame.. On an individual level, it's also very easy to see how Caleb Williams takes home the Heisman Trophy after another terrific performance.

6. LSU (9-2)

LSU won't get any credit for beating Alabama-Birmingham, nor will the Tigers be boosted in the poll with a win next Saturday against Texas A&M. The big one is coming: Georgia will be by far the toughest test for a team already familiar with some of the top teams in the FBS. 

7. Alabama (9-2)

The Crimson Tide's 34-0 win against Austin Peay continued a predictably long winning streak against Championship Subdivision competition. Alabama's last loss against a current FCS program came in 1951 against Villanova, which remains one of just 11 programs across all division to be unbeaten against the mighty Tide.

8. Tennessee (9-2)

It would be very strange to see Tennessee behind two teams with similar records and a head-to-head loss to the Volunteers — especially LSU, which was hammered in a 40-13 loss. But voters are swayed by recent results, and giving up 63 points to South Carolina is going to make it difficult for the panel to keep Tennessee ahead of the other two-loss teams in the SEC despite the head-to-head results.

9. Clemson (10-1)

Clemson did another number to Miami (Fla.), putting up a few late scores in a 40-10 win to mark the fourth consecutive blowout in the series. While a lopsided win helps the Tigers, it wasn't a great day overall: North Carolina's loss to Georgia Tech will do some major damage to Clemson's overall strength of schedule heading out of the regular season.

10. Oregon (9-2)

With its gritty defeat of Utah behind a hobbled Bo Nix, Oregon will rebound into the top 10 after falling six spots to No. 12 in last week's poll following a loss to Washington. While the playoff is out of the question, topping Oregon State in next week's Civil War pushes the Ducks into the Pac-12 title game and should get them into New Year's Six bowl.