The Republican 'red wave' evaporates as Democrats shatter midterm expectations and precedents

Control of the House and Senate have not yet been determined but many political experts are now saying that supposed “red wave” Republicans have been projecting does not look like it will happen.

The New York Times’ chief political analyst Nate Cohn at 9:51 PM ET election night, tweeted: “So far, Democrats are running about a point ahead of our expectations outside of Florida, with the GOP lead in the House starting to come down a bit.”

“Not many signs of a red wave at this point,” he says.

Historically the President’s party almost always loses seats in the House. In the last midterm elections, 2018, Donald Trump lost 40 House seats.

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“Bill Clinton lost 54 House seats in 1994, Barack Obama lost 63 in 2010 and both went on to win re-election,” Jen Psaki, former Biden White House Press Secretary tweeted earlier Tuesday.

Just before 11 PM on MSNBC Psaki observed, “This was supposed to be an election where it would be embarrassing for Joe Biden to wake up in the morning. And it’s not going to be.”

Indeed, it does not currently appear Democrats will lose anywhere close to the number of seats that Trump, Clinton, or Obama lost in their first (or only) terms. Right now, The New York Times says Republicans are likely to take the House, but control of the Senate is still a tossup.

At 10:45 PM ET MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki says it’s “conceivable” Democrats could keep control of the House, as he stressed he was not making a prediction.

NBC News Senior Capitol Hill Correspondent Garrett Haake points to a Democratic House seat that should have been won by the GOP had there been a “red wave,” but was held. U.S. Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-VA) is projected to keep her seat.

There’s more — a lot more.

Gen Z now has its first U.S. Congressman. And out of Florida, a state that appears to be turning rapidly red on election night 2022.

Florida Democrat Maxwell Alejandro Frost, 25-years-old, has beaten the GOP candidate to take the House seat being vacated by Rep. Val Demmings, PBS reports. Demmings lost her bid to unseat Republican Senator Marco Rubio.

PBS calls Frost “a 25-year-old gun reform and social justice activist,” and reports he is “a former March For Our Lives organizer seeking stricter gun control laws and has stressed opposition to restrictions on abortion rights. Generation Z generally refers to those born between the late 1990s to early 2010s. To become a member of Congress, candidates must be at least 25 years old.”

More good news for Democrats.

U.S. Congressman Peter Welch will become U.S. Senator Peter Welch, Democrat of Vermont, replacing the retiring U.S. Senator Pat Leahy, the Associated Press reports.

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Also in Vermont, that state has elected Democrat Becca Balint to the U.S. House of Representatives, NPR reports. She becomes the state’s first out lesbian member of Congress.

“Good news for Democrats in flipping two governor races in Maryland and Massachusetts,” Bloomberg News tweets. “Republican moderates had held those seats, though neither was running for re-election. Democrats, taking on new challengers, won easily.”

In Maryland, Democrat Wes Moore becomes the state’s first Black governor and only the third Black governor. Like Healy in Massachusetts, Moore takes the state out of Republican hands after that states' GOP governor retired. he beat a far-right MAGA Republican endorsed by Donald Trump, NPR reports.

Massachusetts has elected Democrat Maura Healy governor, NBC News reports. Healy, the current Attorney General, becomes the first out lesbian governor ever elected in the U.S., Massachusetts’ first woman governor, and move the state from Republican to Democratic control.

More proof of good news for Democrats. In what was expected to be a tight race, Democrat U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia has been re-elected, per NBC News.

And in another bellwether race, CBS News moved the U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire to “lean Democrat,” meaning incumbent Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan was likely to be re-elected. The New York Times reports Hassan is “pretty likely” to keep her seat.

But at 10:50 PM ET MSNBC and NBC News projected Hassan will keep her seat.

Finally, in Pennsylvania, MSNBC and NBC News says Josh Shapiro, the Democrat, is the projected winner in the governor’s race over Christian nationalist Republican Doug Mastriano.

UPDATE: 11:08 PM ET –

This is a breaking news and developing story. Details may change.