LOCAL

COVID-19 wave will depend on booster shots, health experts say

Amber South
Chambersburg Public Opinion

Will there be a surge in COVID-19 cases later this fall and winter? Health experts along the Interstate 81 corridor anticipate an uptick in cases and hospitalizations, but say immunization rates will play a big role in keeping a wave at bay.

"As we move into the beginning of the cold and flu season throughout the fall and winter, and with more people gathering indoors due to colder weather conditions, there is certainly the potential for an increase in COVID-19 cases in the months ahead," Mark O'Neill, press secretary for the Pennsylvania Department of Health, wrote in an email.

People might want COVID-19 to go away, but it's still here and hundreds of people are dying from it everyday around the country, said Dr. Diana Gaviria, deputy health officer and medical director for the Washington County Health Department.

"There is also concern for a potentially more severe flu season this year then the previous one, so the most important message is that everyone who is eligible for a COVID-19 vaccination and a flu shot should get them to lower their chances of severe sickness and potentially hospitalization from these viruses," she said.

Throughout the pandemic, COVID-19 trends in the United Kingdom have offered clues of what could be next for the United States, according to a spokesperson from the Wicomico Health Department on Maryland's Eastern Shore. According to the American Medical Association, signs are pointing to a fall COVID-19 wave getting started in the U.K.

"Generally, what happens in the U.K. is reflected in the U.S. within a matter of weeks," the spokesperson said. "If we do see a fall wave, it is likely to be driven by subvariants of Omicron. Experts are hopeful that because most of the population has some underlying immunity (natural and/or vaccine-induced) to COVID, this wave would be less severe than previous fall/winter waves."

There are eight subvariants of Omicron and combined they account for 100% of COVID-19 cases in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control. The dominant one, BA.5, accounts for more than 67% of cases.

The newest booster shots available from Pfizer and Moderna are bivalent, meaning they offer proection from BA.5 and BA.4, which is another common subvariant, as well as the original virus that causes COVID-19, O'Neill said.

Booster shots can bend the COVID wave

Local health officials said people staying up to date on their COVID-19 boosters will be key to keeping the possible wave a small one. The bivalent booster, the third booster dose recommended, became available Sept. 2.

Don't let "COVID fatigue," stop you from getting boosters, O'Neill said. People may be ready to move on from the pandemic, but the virus is still circulating and the original vaccine series and the boosters will help people avoid serious illness and death, he said.

Booster rates are not as high as local health officials would like to see.

"We saw initial rates of vaccination go up when the booster first became available and most recently, when the bivalent booster was first introduced at our clinics, but booster rates are not as high as the vaccination rates during the height of the pandemic," Gaviria said. "The current booster covers the Omicron variant of the virus, which is causing the most infections at this time. The concern for the unvaccinated is not just community spread, but more severe illness. People who have not taken the vaccines and boosters are at much greater risk of having significant illness and even hospitalization due to the COVID-19 virus."

It is safe to get the booster at the same as the annual influenza vaccine, according to Dr. Raghav Tirupathi, medical director of infectious disease at WellSpan Chambersburg and WellSpan Waynesboro hospitals.

"Administration of both the bivalent booster and flu vaccine has been steady at WellSpan locations and we do expect volumes to increase later this month and into November," he said.

About 74% of Maryland's population has been fully vaccinated, not including boosters, according to the Maryland Department of Health. In Pennsylvania, about 64% of the population is fully vaccinated.

Less than half of Franklin County, Pa.'s population is fully vaccinated, according to the state Department of Health. In Washington County, Md., about 61.2% of people are fully vaccinated, according to Maryland's health department. On the Eastern Shore, about 57.4% Wicomico County's population is fully vaccinated.

As of last week, 4,350 people received the most recent booster shot in Franklin County. While that puts Franklin County in the middle of the pack of the state's 67 counties for total number of boosted residents, the county's rate per 100,000 residents (2,806) is the fifth-lowest.

In Maryland, 836,642 people received their second booster as of Wednesday, according to the state Department of Health. Data for the bivalent booster was not listed.

How to get a booster shot

Children as young as 6 months old can get vaccinated against COVID-19.

The FDA just approved the updated the bivalent booster for children as young as 5 early last week.

Residents in the region can get the primary vaccine series and boosters through their local health provider or at many pharmacies.

Patients of Meritus Health who are 5 and older can get vaccinated at their primary care office. The Meritus Health mobile vaccine clinic will serve non-patients who are 5 and older. In addition, Meritus provides the bivalent booster shot to eligible people at the vaccine clinic in Robinwood Professional Center. Appointments are required for each option. Get more information on the Meritus Health website at bit.ly/3yyWqE8.

WellSpan Health offers vaccinations to patients 12 and up at family medicine and internal medicine offices around the county. WellSpan Family Medicine in Waynesboro provides vaccinations for kids 6 months through 11 years. Go to www.wellspan.org/covid19/covid-19-vaccine/ for more information.

What are the latest official COVID numbers for the region?

Here's a look at the statistics for the Tri-State area as of last week, the most recent figures available. Keep in mind the numbers are likely an undercount because not all positive cases found through home-testing are reported to authorities.

  • Washington County reported 102 cases and two deaths in the latest week. A week earlier, it had reported 102 cases and no deaths. Throughout the pandemic it has reported 39,296 cases and 606 deaths.
  • Franklin County, Pa., reported 231 cases and one death in the latest week. A week earlier, it had reported 221 cases and two deaths. Throughout the pandemic it has reported 47,099 cases and 745 deaths.
  • Fulton County, Pa., reported 23 cases and no deaths in the latest week. A week earlier, it had reported 17 cases and one death. Throughout the pandemic it has reported 4,740 cases and 69 deaths.
  • Berkeley County, W.Va., reported 130 cases and no deaths in the latest week. A week earlier, it had reported 136 cases and two deaths. Throughout the pandemic it has reported 42,197 cases and 324 deaths.
  • Jefferson County, W.Va., reported 58 cases and two deaths in the latest week. A week earlier, it had reported 75 cases and no deaths. Throughout the pandemic it has reported 17,146 cases and 139 deaths.
  • Morgan County, W.Va., reported 49 cases and no deaths in the latest week. A week earlier, it had reported 31 cases and no deaths. Throughout the pandemic it has reported 4,886 cases and 71 deaths.

Tirputathi said fewer hospitalizations from COVID-19 are expected in the coming months than in the last two years.

What the data show