Market News

Soybeans, corn rally as wheat extends losses

Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying. New crop export sales were solid, crush margins are positive, and soybean meal was up on strong cash demand. September beans were unable to trade above $15 and near-term weather looks mostly bearish, which might set the stage for weakness Friday. The trade thinks recent rains have helped conditions, with more in the forecast for some areas this weekend. Old crop soybean export sales failed to break 100,000 tons following cancellations by unknown destinations and Egypt, while new crop sales topped 1.3 million tons, mainly to China and unknown destinations. Soybean oil was lower on the adjustment of product spreads. The USDA’s attaché in Brazil estimates 2022/23 soybean production at 144 million tons, compared to the official guess of 149 million and the attaché’s 2021/22 total of 126.6 million tons. However, that will depend on the La Nina pattern expected to emerge early next year.

Corn was modestly higher on commercial and technical buying, ending an up and down day in positive territory. Contracts are at least a little oversold and while the more moderate weather is welcome, some damage has been done and conditions remain mixed. Near-term forecasts do show continued dryness in the western Corn Belt against favorable conditions in other areas. Early harvest activity is picking up steam in the southern Corn Belt. Old crop corn export sales were sharply lower than last week. China did take the top spot, but that was against a big cancellation by unknown destinations. New crop sales were 750,000 tons, primarily to unknown, Mexico, and China. The new marketing year for corn starts September 1^st and USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is out September 12^th.

The wheat complex was sharply lower on fund and technical selling. U.S. exports sales were a marketing year low and the dollar was higher, potentially further impacting demand, as that makes U.S. goods more expensive on the export market. That marketing year low for sales came with no significant cancellation and likely reflects that demand impact from the dollar, along with the stiff global competition. Vessels continue to leave Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, including more wheat. There’s been no interference from Russia, but there have been recent reports of grain allegedly stolen from Ukraine by Russia starting to show up at some ports. There were no reports out of Thursday’s talks between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the U.N.