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Economist says On Feed report indicates tight supplies of cattle coming

An ag economist says supplies of cattle could get very tight in the next couple of years.

University of Missouri’s Scott Brown says the industry continues to pull cattle forward, leading to more head on feed and placed into feedlots, “By and large, that’s probably bearish for markets, in at least the short run, I don’t think we can keep doing this. Fewer cows, pulling cattle forward, whether it’s off wheat pasture or other drought areas of the country, we just won’t continue to do that forever.”

He tells Brownfield there was a record large beef cow slaughter percentage this month, indicating further contraction.  Brown says that sets the industry up for a very interesting couple of years, “In terms of just where prices go, given what we’ve been seeing on the beef cow slaughter side, we’re not holding back efforts to cull the herd either. Drought, poor economics, stronger returns – I should say to crop producers – all those things are factors in what’s tightening the beef cow inventory situation.”

Both the On Feed numbers for May 1 and Cattle Placed in April came in outside the upper end of pre-report estimates.