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Soybeans down, corn up, watching harvest activity

Soybeans were modestly lower on profit taking and technical selling. Near-term harvest delays are in the forecast for parts of the Midwest, ahead of a cooler, drier pattern. Conditions are favorable in South America ahead of the full emergence of La Nina. Most forecasts do have another round of rain next week in Argentina and Brazil, but long-term outlooks remain less certain, potentially trimming yields. Soybean export sales were down sharply on the week, still nearly 1.2 million tons, with China and the Netherlands the leading buyers against a cancellation by unknown destinations. Soybean meal was steady to firm on spread adjustments, while bean oil was down profit taking.

Corn was modestly higher on commercial and technical buying. Corn is also watching the U.S. harvest pace and planting activity in Argentina and Brazil. The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is out November 9th and CONAB’s update for Brazil is due November 11th. Ethanol and feed demand are solid, but exports are behind last marketing year. Sales fell below 1 million tons for the first time this month, with Mexico and Japan topping the list. China canceled on a couple thousand tons of previously purchased U.S. corn, remaining largely absent from the market, despite friendly U.S. prices. Ethanol futures were unchanged.

The wheat complex was higher on commercial and technical buying, along with the lower dollar index. Soft red winter areas are seeing planting delays, while drought is a concern in most of the hard red winter region. Drought is also expected to continue to be an issue for white winter wheat. The domestic and global supply fundamentals are bullish, but U.S. exports remain slow, due in some degree to price. Weekly sales were just over a quarter million tons, with more than half of the total to Mexico. IKAR estimates Russia’s wheat crop at 75 million to 75.6 million tons, with total grain production of 119.5 million to 121.7 million tons, compared to the most recent guess from Moscow of more than 123 million tons. Winter wheat planting is ongoing in Russia but delayed in some areas by dry weather.

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