Coronavirus is here to stay. But researchers fear it can get worse before it gets better

Pennsylvania could see somewhere between 6,000 and 14,000 more COVID-19 deaths by the end of 2021 without a universal mask mandate, according to projections from the University of Washington.

The model developed by the university’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation forecasts greater spread and a potentially deadlier fall and winter under the pandemic compared to the same time last year.

The model presents three scenarios for its pandemic estimates: worse, current projection, and with masks worn by about 95% of all residents.

Pennsylvania has been under a resurgence of new coronavirus cases and hospitalizations since July, driven by the delta variant. The surge started about 10 days after a universal masking order was lifted on June 28.

State Department of Health data shows 4,156 new coronavirus cases were reported on Tuesday, bringing the statewide total infections since last March up to 1.4 million people.

As of Tuesday, the state data reported about 4,689 daily cases over the past week, a 91% jump from the 2,453 daily average reported one month ago.

Projections

Under the Washington model, coronavirus cases are expected to climb to about 17,400 cases per day by Dec. 17, leveling off into the new year.

The model's projected daily infections are a total estimated by IHME that includes people not tested for the virus.

The increase would be gradual under the current projection, but the worse case would peak at 42,495 cases per day around Nov. 11 and then begin dropping sharply to intersect with the December current projection.

With 95% masking, the model predicts roughly 1,400 to 1,600 cases per day from early November through the end December.

Theo Vos, IHME global health professor, said Monday the slowing cases will likely be due to vaccinations and past infections slowing the spread.

“Between immunity from the vaccines and past infections, you somehow hit a point where it will have to come down because it’s just too hard to find enough people to pass on the disease,” Vos said in an interview.

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The state began seeing a similar rise in cases around this time last year, seeing an seven-day average of over 10,000 cases per day through the middle of December.

While the state’s current daily case average of 4,689 people is far below the model’s worse-case scenario peak for November, it’s nearly five times the average case count compared to last September.

Hospitalizations and deaths have historically followed rising cases, though Vos said there’s little evidence right now to suggest the delta strain is deadlier than the original virus, which killed 17,894 Pennsylvanians in 2020 alone.

COVID-19 has claimed the lives of about 11,104 Pennsylvanians this year so far, about 800 of those in the past 30 days, as of Sept. 20.

The weeklong average daily deaths have nearly tripled between August and September, rising from about 10 deaths per day on Aug. 17 to about 28 deaths per day on Sept. 17.

During that same period last year, average deaths went down, from about 15 daily deaths to 12 daily deaths, respectively.

The model's current projection shows daily deaths could continue to increase to almost 72 daily deaths by the end of the year, while the worse case would peak at about 180 daily deaths in early December before dropping. 

Pennsylvania hospitals reported 2,510 patients admitted for COVID-19 as of Wednesday morning, with an estimated 611 patients in intensive care. Half of those are on ventilators.

Over the past two weeks, there have been about 2,297 patients hospitalized per day in Pennsylvania, up about 440 patients per day compared to two weeks ago.

The model estimates that possibly over 7,000 hospital beds could be needed in Pennsylvania for the winter ahead. 

Average daily patients declined throughout last September, starting at about 518 patients and ending with 457 daily hospitalizations.

The model also predicts vaccinations will stagnate at just under 70% of the state’s population through the remainder of the year, though the state has reported approximately 67.8% of adults in Pennsylvania have received two doses of available vaccines to date.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, a combination of nine different mathematical models from other research groups, shows a similar trend for new cases and deaths through the end of the year.

Models can change over time, especially if a new variant emerges, but there does seem to be one certainty going into 2022: the coronavirus isn’t going anywhere.

“I think we’re probably past the naïve idea of 'let's just let it run its course and then we’re done with it,’" Vos said. "I don’t think it works that way. There will continue to be enough susceptible people and there will continue to be variations in the virus. I think the optimistic scenario is that, indeed, it will be a problem at manageable levels.”