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Further cuts possible for U.S. spring wheat guess

A crop report from Statistics Canada might give some clues for the USDA’s next spring wheat production estimate.

The report from Ottawa has Canada’s spring wheat crop at 15.321 million tons or just over 562 million bushels, a drop of more than 40% from 2020, following widespread drought in the western Canada, which also impacted U.S. spring wheat in the northern and northwestern Plains.

The USDA’s most recent guess for spring wheat was ahead of harvest in July at 344.575 million bushels, 41% lower than a year ago, and that would fall further if the USDA lowers its harvested acreage estimate due higher than normal rates of abandonment caused by that drought damage.

The USDA’s next spring wheat production projection is out September 30^th in the small grains summary.

Total wheat production in Canada is seen at 21.715 million tons, a decline of 38.3%, with an average yield of 35.2 bushels per acre, down 32.6%, and harvested area of 22.7 million acres, 8.5% less than 2020. Canola production is pegged at a more than 10-year low of 12.782 million tons, 34.4% lower. Canadian corn production is expected to be 14.368 million tons, 5.9% higher, thanks to comparatively better growing conditions in central and eastern growing areas.