COVID in Indiana: The odds of serious illness, death if unvaccinated, according to experts

Corrections & clarifications: This story was updated to accurately reflect the odds of being hospitalized.

State health officials are sharing the same message, but this time it comes after months of seeing the science in action: COVID-19 vaccines are proven to be effective at reducing the spread of the virus, and eligible Hoosiers are strongly urged to get vaccinated. 

Indiana State Health Commissioner Dr. Kris Box and Chief Medical Officer Dr. Lindsay Weaver brought that message to a Friday press conference, along with some eye-opening numbers.

Who is getting COVID-19?

The large majority of COVID-19 cases and deaths are occurring among unvaccinated people, Weaver said. Roughly 98% of Indiana cases this year occurred in people who are not vaccinated and 96% of Indiana COVID-19 deaths this year occurred in people who are not vaccinated. 

'Much worse':Indiana COVID-19 situation and vaccination rates compared to neighboring states

But what about the vaccinated people who are getting infected with COVID-19?

The number of vaccinated people getting infected remains low, and when they are getting infected, it's often because of the new and more contagious delta variant, according to state health officials.

"Breakthrough" cases — when someone gets infected even after being vaccinated —make up 0.126% of fully vaccinated individuals, according to state health officials. That's 3,710 breakthrough cases out of more than 2.9 million Hoosiers who are vaccinated. Of those, 161 have been hospitalized and 56 have died, Weaver said. Most people who died, among these numbers, were over the age of 65.

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“I want to stress that breakthrough infections for vaccinated people are still very low and tend to be mild,” Weaver said. “But we are finding that they are more likely with the delta variant than they are with the other strains that we have seen."

The delta variant, now the predominant strain in the U.S., "spreads more than twice as easily from one person to another compared with other strains," Box said.

Weaver noted that no vaccine is 100% effective and she points to the flu vaccine as an example — every year, people get infected with the flu despite getting the vaccine. The benefit of vaccines, though, is that they "do prevent many cases of illness and are especially effective at preventing hospitalizations and deaths," Weaver said.

What are the odds of getting COVID-19 if you're not vaccinated?

Your chances of getting infected with COVID-19 if you are vaccinated is 1 in 892. Your chances of getting infected with COVID-19 if you are not vaccinated is 1 in 14. These numbers are based on all Indiana cases since January, Weaver said.

What are the odds of being hospitalized with COVID-19 if not vaccinated?

The chances of being hospitalized with COVID-19 if you are vaccinated is 1 in 18,795. Your chances of being hospitalized with COVID-19 if you are not vaccinated is 1 in 237. These numbers are based on all Indiana cases since January, Weaver said.

'Find someone you trust'

For those who haven’t been vaccinated — about 50% of all Hoosiers as of Friday — officials say they are not blind to hesitancy or concern. Weaver, the state’s Chief Medical Officer, wants you to know there are steps you can take to address both your personal concerns and community concerns:

“To those I say, research credible, science-based sources,” Weaver said. “These are the most studied vaccines … and the fact that millions, including almost 3 million in Indiana, have already received this vaccine. I encourage you to talk to people who have gotten the shot about their experience. Find someone you trust to discuss your fears. And if you need someone to hold your hand for your vaccine appointment, find that support person.”

Are people getting vaccinated?

Yes. Though demand for the vaccine has decreased over time, last week, the state saw its highest number of first dose vaccinations since the end of May. Weaver also said the percentage of fully vaccinated people — in every age group — has increased this month.

“We are still seeing that progress, although it is at a much slower pace than we would like,” Weaver said Friday.

More than 2.9 million Hoosiers have been fully vaccinated to date. 

To schedule your shot, call 211 or visit ourshot.in.gov. Many clinics also offer walk-in appointments.

Contact Rashika Jaipuriar at rjaipuriar@gannett.com and follow her on Twitter @rashikajpr.