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NCAA Tournament bracketology: Illinois surges in as new No. 1 seed, replacing Ohio State

Shelby Mast and Scott Gleeson
USA TODAY Sports

Game results on Sunday prompted a major shift in the projected bracket, paving way for a new No. 1 seed less than two weeks from Selection Sunday. 

Iowa's win over Ohio State pushed the Buckeyes out of the final top seed, and top No. 2 seed Villanova suffered a résumé-staining upset to Butler on Sunday. 

That allowed longtime No. 2 seed Illinois to jump into the top seed line. The Fighting Illini (18-6, 14-4) took care of Wisconsin and Nebraska this past week, but a prior loss to bubble team Michigan State left Illinois in doubt of supplanting Ohio State. When assessing both profiles, Illinois has eight Quadrant 1 victories and a top-6 NET score compared to OSU's seven Quad 1 wins and top-8 NET score. 

Illinois Fighting Illini guard Adam Miller (44) and center Kofi Cockburn (behind Miller) and guard Da'Monte Williams (20) and guard Trent Frazier (1) and guard Ayo Dosunmu (11) huddle during a break in the first half against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Pinnacle Bank Arena.

Even though the Illini lost to Ohio State on Jan. 16, Iowa's win Sunday over OSU helps the Illini because Illinois beat Iowa on Jan. 29. Overall, Illinois has fared better against teams in the Big Ten, which is the best conference in the country based on the NET and is loaded with bubble teams that are making Illinois' wins look much better in March. 

Selection Sunday is March 14. The NCAA Tournament tips off March 18.

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No. 1 seeds

Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois. 

Last four in

Seton Hall, Georgia Tech, VCU, Connecticut. 

First four out

Michigan State, Duke, St. John's, SMU. 

Next four out

Indiana, Syracuse, Memphis, Stanford. 

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Others considered for at-large bids (no particular order): Utah State, Minnesota, Richmond, Saint Louis

On life support: Marquette, Providence, Marshall, North Carolina State, Dayton,  Pittsburgh, UAB, Georgia, Ole Miss

Multi-bid conferences: Big Ten (8), Big 12 (7), ACC (7), SEC (6), Big East (5), Pac-12 (4), Mountain West (3), Atlantic 10 (2), American Athletic (2), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2).

Leaders or highest NET from projected one-bid conferences - (20 total): America East - UMBC, Atlantic Sun - Liberty, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - UCSB, CAA - Northeastern, C-USA - UAB, Horizon - Wright State, MAAC - Siena, MAC - Toledo, MEAC - Norfolk State, Northeast - Bryant, OVC - Belmont, Patriot - Navy, Southern - UNC Greensboro, Southland - Abilene Christian, SWAC - Prairie View A&M, Summit - South Dakota, Sun Belt - Texas State, WAC - Grand Canyon.

  • Banned from participating: Alabama State, Alabama A&M, Delaware State, Auburn, Arizona 
  • Transition schools, ineligible for the tournament: Cal Baptist, North Alabama, Merrimack, Dixie State, Tarleton State, Bellarmine, UC San Diego   
  • COVID-19: Ivy League, Bethune-Cookman, Maryland-Eastern Shore, Howard, Maine

NCAA Tournament language explainer:

  • NET stands for the NCAA Evaluation Tool, which is the barometer for the selection committee. It includes game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin (capping at 10 points per game), and net offensive and defensive efficiency.
  • Quadrant 1 wins: Home games vs. 1-30 NET teams; Neutral-site games vs. 1-50 NET; Away games vs. 1-75 NET
  • Quadrant 2 wins: Home games vs. 31-75 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 51-100 NET; Away games vs. 76-135 NET
  • Quadrant 3 wins: Home games vs. 76-160 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 101-200 NET; Away games vs. 136-240 NET
  • Quadrant 4 wins: Home games vs. 161-plus NET; Neutral-site games vs. 201-plus NET; Away games vs. 241-plus NET

Note: Most statistical data is used from WarrenNolan.com. The NET rankings (NCAA Evaluation Tool) also are a reference point. 

About our bracketologist: Shelby Mast has been projecting the field since 2005 on his website, Bracket W.A.G. He joined USA TODAY in 2014. In his eighth season as our national bracketologist, Mast has finished as one of the top three bracketologists in the past seven March Madnesses. He’s also predicted for The Indianapolis Star, collegeinsider.com and is an inaugural member of the Super 10 Selection Committee. Follow him on Twitter @BracketWag.

Follow college basketball reporter Scott Gleeson on Twitter @ScottMGleeson

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