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Ag economist questions Chinese corn stocks

An ag economist says farmers should keep an eye on Chinese corn stocks this year.

Guy Allen with the International Grains Program at Kansas State University points out that of the 303 million metric tons of world corn ending stocks, USDA shows China holds about two thirds of them . He says as world ending stocks for corn continue to decline to the lowest level in six years, there is a big question as to if those Chinese stocks are really there.

“The trade would suggest that they’re not. 186 million metric tons of ending stocks sitting in china, I think is a bit overstated.”

He says if that were the case China would not be buying corn the way they have been, so many traders are suggesting they only have about half of that.

“Some of my good contacts in China are suggesting that total corn imports into China could reach as much as 30 million metric tons this year.”

Allen says China does not have the resources to produce enough grain for the animal products they want, which is similar to their situation with soybeans 25 years ago.

“They are struggling with the decision to open that market up and import more feed grains, and I think in a more rapid situation than we saw with soybeans we could see the same situation evolve there for corn.”

Allen spoke during the virtual 2021 Illinois Double Crop Farmers Forum.